The Celtic Tiger is beginning to roar.....says David McWilliams?

thebaz

I hate all things Celtic Tiger , even the name - but we never seam to be able do things in moderation - its only last year watching Vincent Browne or that Russian economist and you would be led believe there was no future for this generation or the next - everything has to be extreme , bi-polar - why can't we just enjoy life without the media frenzy of dark depression or Celtic Tiger greed?

Ash.J.Williams

I heard the builders have been busy since xmas, and i see the heuston station area unfinished developments are now in full swing again.

_Brian

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

In fairness it's hard not to argue that all the economic indicators seem to point to a robust recovery.

A robust LOCALISED recovery maybe in 2-3 urban centres and their commuter belts.. Outside that rural Ireland is still in deep recession..

Just go onto the allsop auction website.. In rural Ireland there are houses and commercial premises being unloaded for a pittance because those that know better realise that rural Ireland is so far from a recovery that it may as well be a different country ! This includes county towns and not just backwater rural villages.

Idbatterim

money aside, just not having to hear recession this recession that, cuts, bickering between everyone, pessimism! THANK GOD! Now fingers crossed FG stay the main party in 2016 or we can look forward to another train wreck coming down the tracks! Endless hikes for all, unemployed during the boom? no problem, double digit % welfare hikes etc. A real fantastic visionary investment by FF, to hell with the crumbling water infrastructure etc that everyone is now complaining about paying for, Dublin still not having a proper integrated transport system, but hey we have world class everything rates (particularly the marginal rate of tax, just wait till you hit it boys and girls, E32,800 in dublin, youll be living the high life)! the exponential explosion in welfare and pay rates rate further compounded our problem when the downturn hit as cutting anything here regardless of how generous it is, is met with immense opposition.

Ush1

Unless I'm making sh*t-loads more cash, it's still a recession as far as I'm concerned.

OldNotWIse

enda1 wrote: »

As a nurse/primary school teacher/garda I think it is DEFINITELY time to buy 3 off-plan apartments in outer Dublin (Meath/Louth/Longford) with 30 year mortgages and lied about earnings with the intention to flip them in 5 years and retire early.

Definitely

You might as well. You'll be able to get half it written down when the bubble bursts again anyway. Dont forget the off plan apartment in Bulgaria too.

Idbatterim

**** 'em.

* pays 6 quid for a pint *

a mere E6.70 for pint of Tiger in sam sara the other night, E6.20 for a heineken...

Frank Lee Midere

thebaz wrote: »

I hate all things Celtic Tiger , even the name - but we never seam to be able do things in moderation - its only last year watching Vincent Browne or that Russian economist and you would be led believe there was no future for this generation or the next - everything has to be extreme , bi-polar - why can't we just enjoy life without the media frenzy of dark depression or Celtic Tiger greed?

This. Last year we ended on a recession. Last Q was -2% annualised. Europe is stagnating. We get lucky a bit in some IT work and .... It's the tiger again.

Still though. We have massive arrears in mortgage payments, the debt ratio is still ludicrous, the take home pay is still falling ( given the fact that property and water taxes and charges are taxes and wages have not really risen) and a relatively good year which just about gets us back to 2011 GDP AND ITS THE TIGER AGAIN.

It's not really.

wrt40

I'll believe it when I see €500 patio heaters for sale in woodies.

Valetta

wrt40 wrote: »

I'll believe it when I see €500 patio heaters for sale in woodies.

Think they've been made illegal after pressure from the anti-cow-farting brigade.

Celly Smunt

When Eddie Hobbs tells us to get on the ladder then you know the tiger is roaring.



MON EDDIE! TELL US TO GET ON THE BLOODY LADDER!

Kermit.de.frog

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-hunters-queuing-for-five-days-before-new-homes-go-on-sale-30559705.html


The Irish Independent is not exactly hiding it's ambition to stoke the housing market is it?

TwoShedsJackson

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Erm, massive queues for social welfare in Clondalkin and Ballyfermot were not unusual during the boom so they are hardly unusual now.


If you said there is massive queues outside the SW in Blackrock or Foxrock it might mean more tbh.

Rich people not affected as much by the recession, news at 11.

gugleguy

Celly Smunt wrote: »

When Eddie Hobbs tells us to get on the ladder then you know the tiger is roaring.



MON EDDIE! TELL US TO GET ON THE BLOODY LADDER!

maybe Eddie is confining his exhortations to Peoples Republic of Cork for now.:p

Smidge

Just watching Howlin on the 6.1
Talk about double talk.
"We'll be giving tax breaks.....well, not just not and we are not sure when but we do want to give relief to people."
"70,000 more in employment"
Including TUS, Jobsbridge etc there Howlin????

kyote00

The shinners will be pissed now....

Fallschirmjager

They are simply stoking a fake economy...they are encouraging the banks to loan money again and this will increase until the banks are back where they started..loaning risky money. They will be forced to do that to pay off what they owe from the last debacle.

So now we have a boom in house prices in Dublin, which will inevitably lead to spillover into surrounding counties. The only way they can get people out of negative equity is to boom house prices..and that's all they are doing. It's an illusion to make you feel better, more oh look my house is worth half a million BS. It will also drive the taxes on houses to the government and the increase in charges on your house that we all have to pay.

The reason your pint is going up, is a mixture of inflation (tax by another means) and the fact that the government never dealt with the costs of government. That's why we have charges now. they are still spending more than they earn in taxes. It's exactly the same as you spending more than you earn and patching the difference with a loan...sooner or later the debt has to be paid...of course after the election. They are simply kicking the debt can down the road waiting for both a European and American boom to pay for it all. That boom is very unlikely to come. The other way to boom or kick start the western world economies is a war or wars. You can draw your own conclusions on those.

Zubeneschamali

TwoShedsJackson wrote: »

Rich people not affected as much by the recession, news at 11.

Actually, a recent study showed that inequality in Ireland dropped thanks to the recession. The Indo was quite irate about it: no cuts to wasters on welfare bah humbug and so on.

Zubeneschamali

Smidge wrote: »

Including TUS, Jobsbridge etc there Howlin????

Jobsbridge etc. cost money, they don't generate 1 billion in unexpected tax revenue.

Valetta

Fallschirmjager wrote: »

They are simply stoking a fake economy...they are encouraging the banks to loan money again and this will increase until the banks are back where they started..loaning risky money. They will be forced to do that to pay off what they owe from the last debacle.

So now we have a boom in house prices in Dublin, which will inevitably lead to spillover into surrounding counties. The only way they can get people out of negative equity is to boom house prices..and that's all they are doing. It's an illusion to make you feel better, more oh look my house is worth half a million BS. It will also drive the taxes on houses to the government and the increase in charges on your house that we all have to pay.

The reason your pint is going up, is a mixture of inflation (tax by another means) and the fact that the government never dealt with the costs of government. That's why we have charges now. they are still spending more than they earn in taxes. It's exactly the same as you spending more than you earn and patching the difference with a loan...sooner or later the debt has to be paid...of course after the election. They are simply kicking the debt can down the road waiting for both a European and American boom to pay for it all. That boom is very unlikely to come. The other way to boom or kick start the western world economies is a war or wars. You can draw your own conclusions on those.

I wish I had your foresight.

Was the second million easier than the first to make?

wretcheddomain

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Jobsbridge etc. cost money, they don't generate 1 billion in unexpected tax revenue.

Don't be sensible - it's not a tradeable currency in these quarters.

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

diomed

Fred Swanson wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

But if they don't buy now prices will escalate and they will never come down.

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

Wompa1

seamus wrote: »

You're wrong I'm afraid. Many living expenses are at their lowest level in 3 years.
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cpi/consumerpriceindexjuly2014/#.VAbWbvldVss

Clothing and footwear in particular is nearly half the price it was in 2006. Energy & fuel costs are cheaper than they were in 2011.

In many ways the big essentials are easier to afford now - if you don't smoke, don't drink a lot, and don't take 3 hotel breaks a year, you're probably more comfortable now than you were this time last year.

Moved away 2.5 years ago. Walked around some of the grocery stores this evening. It seemed like everything I would buy in a weekly shop has gone up. Also stopped into a Supermacs on the way back to Galway from Mayo today. A Snackbox is now 7.50? It was around 5 euro when I left. And every small village around Mayo now seems to have pay and display parking all over the place.

Haven't looked at clothes other than in some of the Traditional Irish places in Westport, they were very expensive but I'd imagine that consumer price Index covers across the board. Dunnes and Pennys keep things pretty cheap, in fairness to them. Unfortunately after a few spins in the wash, they are worn out to ****e

Smidge

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Jobsbridge etc. cost money, they don't generate 1 billion in unexpected tax revenue.

No..but taking into account revenue from drugs and prostitution does.

Smidge

Wompa1 wrote: »

Moved away 2.5 years ago. Walked around some of the grocery stores this evening. It seemed like everything I would buy in a weekly shop has gone up. Also stopped into a Supermacs on the way back to Galway from Mayo today. A Snackbox is now 7.50? It was around 5 euro when I left. And every small village around Mayo now seems to have pay and display parking all over the place.

Haven't looked at clothes other than in some of the Traditional Irish places in Westport, they were very expensive but I'd imagine that consumer price Index covers across the board. Dunnes and Pennys keep things pretty cheap, in fairness to them. Unfortunately after a few spins in the wash, they are worn out to ****e

What I find interesting is when these price/cost index come out is that anyone who has to very, very carefully watch their budget knows they are complete bunk.
I know for a fact, because its MY money that things have NOT decreased in price.
Everything has increased in cost.

Packrat

krudler wrote: »

"Dublin airport is jammed again" yeah with young people leaving the country.

Utter bullsh1t.

Go stand in the arrivals hall and watch how many Irish are returning every morning or afternoon.

We had net emigration of about 30k last year. That is not enormous given the vicious recession this country has been through. We have growth rates which are the envy of Europe.

If some of ttyhe poor dears currently emigrating had studied something relevant to ANY economy, not just ours, they wouldn't be working in bars in Sydney with their fcuking degree in some bullsh1t like sociology or womens studies that we all paid for them to do rolled up under the couch at home.

Christ, - its as bad as the "but there are 27 people for every job" lies and bullcrap which was spouted here all last year.

TheBegotten

It's kind of sad to read the state of the country in these threads. Gombeenism on a national scale almost seems to be an entitlement by now, with talk of tax cuts and public sector votes in the run up to the next election. Everyone is looking to make easy money. No one cares that a Tiger economy is unstable. I used to blame Fianna Fail for these things, but between Labour bending over backwards in government and Sinn Fein hopping on the bandwagon, I think it's more a societal problem. Whatever happened to integrity? Does no one care about the health of the country, as long as they make their money and have fun while the good times last?

A new housing bubble is not what we need. Houses need to be affordable, inflation needs to be checked and the deficit needs to be reduced, if not eliminated altogether. I'm not advocating more austerity, but the recovery must be stable and based on real economics, not some half-nostalgic dream of a second tiger.

WilyCoyote

Wompa1 wrote: »

........................................................................................................................................... Unfortunately after a few spins in the wash, they are worn out to ****e

Afraid you're wrong there. Every man worth his salt knows that it's the dryer that does the damage.

Vandango

diomed wrote: »

But if they don't buy now prices will escalate and they will never come down.

Ah that familiar old scaremongering shyte.

Tazio

http://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/firsttime-buyers-queue-for-five-days-in-bid-for-homes-30560868.html

Haven't see this type of queuing in a while...

Ulysses Gaze

Tazio wrote: »

http://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/firsttime-buyers-queue-for-five-days-in-bid-for-homes-30560868.html

Haven't see this type of queuing in a while...

Jesus. Will we never learn.....

OldNotWIse

Queues for houses this morning. Is the madness starting?

(flees country before it falls on it's face again)

Potatoeman

So after the last boom we were told a mortgage should be 3.5 times your salary and 1/4 o 1/3 of your partners. So by that if you are buying a 400k house you need to be on a 85k salary?

Hoop66

Wompa1 wrote: »

Walked around some of the grocery stores this evening....

I wanna party with you, big guy.

seamus

Wompa1 wrote: »

Moved away 2.5 years ago. Walked around some of the grocery stores this evening. It seemed like everything I would buy in a weekly shop has gone up. Also stopped into a Supermacs on the way back to Galway from Mayo today. A Snackbox is now 7.50? It was around 5 euro when I left. And every small village around Mayo now seems to have pay and display parking all over the place.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosy_retrospection
Supermacs prices appear to have gone up, therefore everything has? That's not how statistics work.
Likewise, the introduction of pay & display parking does not mean prices have gone up. The cost of free parking is still free.

In 2004 it used to cost me €50 to fill the fridge, for myself, for a week. Now it costs €140 for myself, my wife and my daughter.

That's pretty damn good value given ten years of inflation.

keeponhurling

Nicolas Cage wrote: »

Me arse

Last time I went to Dublin, last month, many hotels were fully booked out that weekend.

I ended up staying in sandyford bewleys, out of town a bit, and the place was so packed it was almost like a zoo.

That's my empirical evidence of Dublin hotels doing ok, though I wouldn't want to draw any deeper conclusions on it.

It was a weekend in August too, I suppose

smash

OldNotWIse wrote: »

Queues for houses this morning. Is the madness starting?

(flees country before it falls on it's face again)

In Swords of all places!

Zubeneschamali

Potatoeman wrote: »

So after the last boom we were told a mortgage should be 3.5 times your salary and 1/4 o 1/3 of your partners. So by that if you are buying a 400k house you need to be on a 85k salary?

Assuming a 20-30% deposit?

A half assed websearch says:

Individuals can usually borrow up to three times their gross annual salary. Couples can borrow either three times the higher salary plus one time the lower or two and a half times the total of their joint gross annual income. ... These are very rough figures as loans of up to 3.5 times income for individuals may be available depending on prevailing market conditions.

So a single person queing for a 2 bed in Swords for 240K might be putting up a 60K deposit and borrowing 180K, so should be on 60K a year, or maybe 51K at the 3.5 level.

A couple queing for a 400K detached 4 bed would be putting up 100k deposit, and borrowing 300K, so should be on a combined income of 120K, so 2x60K, or if one salary is a lot bigger than the other, they might be on 90/30K.

But some of these folks might be bringing even bigger deposits. Until the latest figures, most purchases were cash, not mortgage at all.

Shiraz 4.99

Potatoeman wrote: »

So after the last boom we were told a mortgage should be 3.5 times your salary and 1/4 o 1/3 of your partners. So by that if you are buying a 400k house you need to be on a 85k salary?

These ratios are the most important tool in controlling another boom.
Buyers must understand that they are better off not being granted 8 times their salary.
Sadly though the banks will come up with some incomprehensible disposable income matrix which will surprisingly get you that €400k loan for the 3 bed where coincidentally they have loaned the developer €12 million 2 years earlier.

TwoShedsJackson

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Jesus. Will we never learn.....

6 people queuing for 60 houses, I think we're OK for the moment...

Cantona's Collars

Yup,it's creeping back,just saw an ad for a nightclub in Dublin - €25 a head for New Years Eve. Back to the days of paying €25 to be crammed into a place and fleeced at the bar.