Queue to buy houses

Villa05

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again how does that feed into the global market with regards to Dublin property price?

As pointed out its no longer a case of billy the new degree holder looking for a gaff as he starts his new low paid job , or the couple looking to trade up..there are guys out there with substantial budgets to buy property.

All you have to do is look at the rental yield a company can make with regard to property not to mention the low corpo tax this company would pay on this profit..

With regard to your pemise that people will need subsidies if they remain high ...How does the likes of Paris, London compare their prices are higher.

The government need to step in and punish anyone buying property in bulk for rental purposes

- What can be charged for rent is restricted by peoples incomes
- I'm not an accountant but I believe Rental income has a fixed tax of 30%
- Paris, London?
- Why do we need to punish companies buying in bulk, it will lead to a professional landlord service, security of tenure, economies of scale etc

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

- What can be charged for rent is restricted by peoples incomes
- I'm not an accountant but I believe Rental income has a fixed tax of 30%
- Paris, London?
- Why do we need to punish companies buying in bulk, it will lead to a professional landlord service, security of tenure, economies of scale etc

Actually its 25% with a shed load of loopholes like offsetting against interest on a loan for the preoprty, for upgrading or repairs, etc...

http://www.revenue.ie/en/tax/ct/

I am not saying its right but rent is rising just ask lads with rent allowance being locked out of the market..

I am trying to say people who are buying to live should get preference before companies buying to rent

fliball123

jmayo wrote: »

The options would have probably been to site either at Fyffes or Chiquita HQ so it was really either in NC or Dublin.
Now of course they could have HQ sited in Belize or Gauatemala or some such banana growing country.



Are you sure on that ?
PM me the Lotto numbers please.




I would say it will be down towards the river and down towards back of point direction where there is already higher rise buildings.



I guess you are talking about certain enterprises here as regards IPOs.
BTW my reference to external lending or funding is that they are not having to fund from local sources who could be much more costly and less susceptible to lending after the hammering they took in last 7 years.
On the other hand the poor local smucks buying a home can't access funding from foreign sources.



Yes I know but the point I was trying to make is that if Ireland is this great long term bet and the property maket is on the up, then why pull out some of your investment from one of the only semi solvent banks in the market.



All of that omits the fact that we have huge level of personal and SME debt tied to property.
We have had not any meaningful resolution of most of the defaulting property related debt.
Foreign investors have come here in search of "bargains" and good rental yeilds.
Once prices start rising or yields drop then they will fresh locations for investment.

The other thing you aren't mentioning is the fact that property currently provides a much better return than having money sitting in a bank for Irish people with cash.
Interest rates are at an all time low.
And there could be fear that should another shock hit the banks then a Cyprus solution will come into play.
Then add in exemption on capital gains tax on property and you get people pushed towards property investment.

BTW you asked what government could have done - see last line above.
In fact they extended this scheme another year in 2014.

Jesting asking me for the lotto numbers is not a valid argument and no matter how much you want to make it appear that I am in the wrong I have put up things such as

Emigration down - less people leaving
Employment up - More people working more cash
Dole queue down - less people to support more money in the economy
Economy up - apparently the austerity budgets are over if Noonan is to be believed
Rents up - Makes buying a more attractive option
Savings - No longer gives a good return forcing people into other options for investment
Wages up - People have more money in their pocket
Still one of the most fertile countries in the world - This will lead to future demand
People on average are living a lot longer in this country - This will quell future supply
Dublin already has a shortage of stock and has a list of over 100k people looking for social housing.

All of the above points to property prices going up..

Now where is your proof or where is your thinking that prices are going to drop. I am not trying to be contentious I am trying to understand where this prices are going down mentality is coming from?

jmayo

fliball123 wrote: »

Jesting asking me for the lotto numbers is not a valid argument and no matter how much you want to make it appear that I am in the wrong I have put up things such as

Well you make a statement like "points to the fact that Dublin prices are going up and will not drop for the foreseeable future" and don't expect some form of joke regarding your ability to predict the future.

fliball123 wrote: »

Employment up - More people working more cash
Dole queue down - less people to support more money in the economy

I always wonder what are the actual jobs and is it just massaging the figures with jobbridge schemes, etc.

fliball123 wrote: »

Economy up - apparently the austerity budgets are over if Noonan is to be believed

Yep all that debt has just magically gone away and interest rates are going to stay where they are forever.
How much of an overrun had Dept of Health again ?
How much is the government borrowing to keep the lights on and isn't 1 euro in 5 of our taxes going to service our debts ?

fliball123 wrote: »

Rents up - Makes buying a more attractive option
Savings - No longer gives a good return forcing people into other options for investment

True.

fliball123 wrote: »

Wages up - People have more money in their pocket

Ehh can I work with you then ?
BTW water charges, property tax cancel out some of those gains don't they ?

fliball123 wrote: »

Still one of the most fertile countries in the world - This will lead to future demand

Do you have any fooking idea what is going on in farming at the moment ?
Beef and tillage farmers are being screwed to the wall.
Acres dedicated to tillage is dropping every year due to fact it just isn't paying.

fliball123 wrote: »

People on average are living a lot longer in this country - This will quell future supply

Ahh FFS.
BTW most of those people will also be working longer which will mean they are competing with youngsters for those jobs in Supermacs and McDonalds.

fliball123 wrote: »

Dublin already has a shortage of stock and has a list of over 100k people looking for social housing.

All of the above points to property prices going up..

Now where is your proof or where is your thinking that prices are going to drop. I am not trying to be contentious I am trying to understand where this prices are going down mentality is coming from?

Speaking of our long term prospects lets take a look at our possible future.

This country, as you very well pointed out, is really dependent on FDI, alot of which is here because of the double Irish, very cheap or lax corpo tax.
We have been peeing off some very powerful states round the world who sooner or later are going to want to start getting at some of that missed tax.

In the past we lost FDI industry because new cheaper players started competing.
Remember how we used to have the likes of Semperit, Dell, APC, NEC, Braun, Lapple, Motorola to name a few.
Well they found they could do it cheaper elsewhere.

Ok they were manufacturing I hear you say.
Don't kid yourself into thinking that a Pharma plant, call centre or software devleopment team are anymore immune from relocation.

And please don't start uttering such shyte as we are going to be a knowledge economy and we will have the educated workforce to keep the new and current highflyers such as Google, Facebook, EMC, Apple, Intel, Cisco, Microsoft here.
For a lot of the more technical and indeed the multi lingual based roles we have to import the bodies.

And speaking of education, our education system standard is dropping and this has even been pointed out by people working for some of the above multinationals.

In the short term we still have huge level of personal debt, we have increased level of taxation and we no longer have the high salaries for most people to allow a huge chunk of their salaries to go twoards just providing a roof of their heads.
There is no longer the indigenous banking system, or foreign banks localating here, to back up an ever increasing property pyramid.
There is no longer the stream of cheap credit available.

There is a huge unresolved level of SME sector debt tied to property.
There is a huge level of unresolved mortgage debt that as prices increase will prompt the lenders to finally start repossessions.
Supply is very low and once some more supply hits the market the demand will be soaked up.
Oh and interest rates are at an all time low, there is only one way they can go.
If interest rates jump by 1 or 2% watch how many trackers slip into trouble.

And no matter how someone swings it Greece, and the rest of the PIIGS & Cyrpus have huge problems that haven't really been solved.

gaius c

Waste of time replying to the bulk of that already debunked nonsense but this one is a pearl.

Still one of the most fertile countries in the world - This will lead to future demand

10-15% of all people between 20 & 30 have emigrated and there's less of them to start with. Those would be your prospective first time buyers btw.

fliball123

gaius c wrote: »

Waste of time replying to the bulk of that already debunked nonsense but this one is a pearl.

10-15% of all people between 20 & 30 have emigrated and there's less of them to start with. Those would be your prospective first time buyers btw.

I have also said that emigration is down and there is no calculations on people actually coming into the country have a look around parnell square or north circular road for the amount of South americans in here under studying visas who are also here to stay and look for work

Peter File

fliball123 wrote: »

I have also said that emigration is down and there is no calculations on people actually coming into the country have a look around parnell square or north circular road for the amount of South americans in here under studying visas who are also here to stay and look for work

They are only officially allowed to work 20 hours per week and are highly unlikely to be in a position to buy a house in Swords.

gaius c

Peter File wrote: »

They are only officially allowed to work 20 hours per week and are highly unlikely to be in a position to buy a house in Swords.

You don't understand. Their wealthy parents will buy the houses for them. Or something like that.

Barely Hedged

jmayo wrote: »

I guess you are talking about certain enterprises here as regards IPOs.
BTW my reference to external lending or funding is that they are not having to fund from local sources who could be much more costly and less susceptible to lending after the hammering they took in last 7 years.
On the other hand the poor local smucks buying a home can't access funding from foreign sources.

No foreign bank is going to offer mortgages/"fund" individuals in a different country. I dont understand the point youre making.

jmayo wrote: »

Yes I know but the point I was trying to make is that if Ireland is this great long term bet and the property maket is on the up, then why pull out some of your investment from one of the only semi solvent banks in the market.

Its a completely null and void point you made as you backed your point up by equating a short to medium (at a stretch) term investment to a long term one.

jmayo wrote: »

All of that omits the fact that we have huge level of personal and SME debt tied to property.
We have had not any meaningful resolution of most of the defaulting property related debt.
Foreign investors have come here in search of "bargains" and good rental yeilds.
Once prices start rising or yields drop then they will fresh locations for investment.

An improving economy wont improve debt situations?

And you think the @rse will fall out of the Irish property market becuase yields fall back or prices rise? Id be interested to know by how much you think this would impact domestic demand?

jmayo wrote: »

The other thing you aren't mentioning is the fact that property currently provides a much better return than having money sitting in a bank for Irish people with cash.
Interest rates are at an all time low.
And there could be fear that should another shock hit the banks then a Cyprus solution will come into play.
Then add in exemption on capital gains tax on property and you get people pushed towards property investment.

BTW you asked what government could have done - see last line above.
In fact they extended this scheme another year in 2014.

Many asset classes are experiencing increased prices due to low rates. Doesnt mean everything is a bubble.

You think there will be a bail in of depositors in the Irish banks - what probability do you attach to that?

I asked what they could have done in the past year. Since the exemption was extended about a year and a half ago for another year, thats another null and void point