Queue to buy houses

Potatoeman

Sunny Dayz wrote: »

How are people so young getting mortgages so high?! We could only get €150k on €60k joint gross - both in long term employment, late 20/early 30 with the child and the wedding parts of our lives already done!


Granted we didn't need anymore anyway for the house we wanted but even still, I find it difficult for me to understand how they could do it!

Because the property market is a pyramid scheme but there is no stability in renting. Those that defend it usually are benefiting from it in some way. People that spout the usual line 'if you cant afford the price you cant afford to live there' usually own in an area where prices have shot up and probably could not afford to live there if they were buying now.

Saint Sonner

Here's one for you - hypothetically:

Me and my soon to be wife have recently started renting in Dublin (originally from the north) - we both have good jobs and earn well here in Dublin. I was just playing about with mortgage calculator and diff things etc on Ulster Bank.

For the rent we are paying we could buy (when we are both out of probationary periods in new jobs) one of the 2 bedroom houses in Swords for €240k and have it paid off in 14.5 years. Now we don't intend to stay in Dublin 15 years but if we were to stay 5 and were able to rent the property for the next 10 (up to at least 80% of the monthly mortgage repayment) We would have a house in Dublin paid off by 2030 or so? (We'll be in our 40's then)

This sounds like a good idea to me but does anyone else have an alternative view on it!

NB Just using the houses in swords as an example

fliball123

Sunny Dayz wrote: »

I would imagine, as I think someone else has suggested above, they have been given a little sweetener by the developer or the estate agent to create a bit of hype and frenzy over these houses.


Another thing I noticed it that the potential buyers queuing are actually quite young IMO. Early 20's. Me & hubbie considered ourselves lucky to be first time buyers last year being late 20's/early 30's and being largely in full time employment throughout the recession so far (touch wood!). Did we do it wrong?!

Some people on here are deluded there has been over 6 years of pent up demand, Dublin has very limited housing and First time buyers have to compete with domestic investors and Global Vulture capitalists. Gone are the days of the 3 times a salary as a valid mechanism for buying a house.

Look at the properties that exist in Dulbin

Rents are gone through the roof
Vulture capitalists buying in dublin due to the above
There has been feck all new builds in dublin over the last 6/7 years
Employment is back up to pre bust levels
We are still one of the most fertile countries in the world
We are living longer as a nation

All of these properties would suggest that prices are only going up..For people scoffing , scoff but please bring proof dont say people never learn..People need to put a house over their head and rent is dead money and it is also very high when compared to say a mortgage over 35 years.

I am not saying it is right and I am not cheerleading it. but that is how I see it

fliball123

EunanMac wrote: »

Good decision, you need to get on our property ladder. Now we just need you sign a 100% mortgage and get your parents to sign as guarantors. Would you like a new car with that as well ?

All the ballsy people are buying property these days.

They are a thing of the past...Listen debate is good but please keep it on actually real terms..a lot of people are only trying to buy a gaff to live in

Thoie

fliball123 wrote: »

Some people on here are deluded there has been over 6 years of pent up demand, Dublin has very limited housing and First time buyers have to compete with domestic investors and Global Vulture capitalists. Gone are the days of the 3 times a salary as a valid mechanism for buying a house.

Look at the properties that exist in Dulbin

Rents are gone through the roof
Vulture capitalists buying in dublin due to the above
There has been feck all new builds in dublin over the last 6/7 years
Employment is back up to pre bust levels
We are still one of the most fertile countries in the world
We are living longer as a nation

All of these properties would suggest that prices are only going up..For people scoffing , scoff but please bring proof dont say people never learn..People need to put a house over their head and rent is dead money and it is also very high when compared to say a mortgage over 35 years.

I am not saying it is right and I am not cheerleading it. but that is how I see it

But this is exactly why we're saying this is a repeat of 2005 - the circumstances then were exactly the same (and I speak as someone who bought in 2006).

All those arguments were made back then as well. A few years before I bought, when parking spaces were being sold for €100k, I was offered "only" €100k as a mortgage which wouldn't have bought me a park bench to sleep under. As it happened, my circumstances changed, and I was approved for a higher mortgage amount when the time came without taking out 100% mortgage, so you could theoretically call me "lucky".

My mortgage payments were €400 a month less than the cost to rent an equivalent place.

I was a first time buyer competing with investors.

Life expectancy was as high then as it is today. The country was as fertile then as it is today. Unemployment was at an all time low.

Prices were "only going up" - and then look what happened.

We're not scoffing, we're just pointing out that we have memories that go back 10+ years, and this all looks exceedingly familiar. Do you think people 10 years ago bought in the knowledge that things were going to plummet so drastically? Sure, people were saying "this can't last" and "this is a bubble", but most people were facing exactly the same choices as the people today. "My rent is increasing, I've no permanency of tenancy, I want to start a family and not worry about being kicked out of my rented home, prices are dearer this month than they were last month and keep rising, I better buy now as a 6 month delay could double the price of the house".

Perhaps this time things will turn out differently. But it's equally likely that it's groundhog day, and we'll see a panic set in, house prices doubling while you sleep, then another big slump a few years down the line.

fliball123

Thoie wrote: »

But this is exactly why we're saying this is a repeat of 2005 - the circumstances then were exactly the same (and I speak as someone who bought in 2006).

All those arguments were made back then as well. A few years before I bought, when parking spaces were being sold for €100k, I was offered "only" €100k as a mortgage which wouldn't have bought me a park bench to sleep under. As it happened, my circumstances changed, and I was approved for a higher mortgage amount when the time came without taking out 100% mortgage, so you could theoretically call me "lucky".

My mortgage payments were €400 a month less than the cost to rent an equivalent place.

I was a first time buyer competing with investors.

Life expectancy was as high then as it is today. The country was as fertile then as it is today. Unemployment was at an all time low.

Prices were "only going up" - and then look what happened.

We're not scoffing, we're just pointing out that we have memories that go back 10+ years, and this all looks exceedingly familiar. Do you think people 10 years ago bought in the knowledge that things were going to plummet so drastically? Sure, people were saying "this can't last" and "this is a bubble", but most people were facing exactly the same choices as the people today. "My rent is increasing, I've no permanency of tenancy, I want to start a family and not worry about being kicked out of my rented home, prices are dearer this month than they were last month and keep rising, I better buy now as a 6 month delay could double the price of the house".

Perhaps this time things will turn out differently. But it's equally likely that it's groundhog day, and we'll see a panic set in, house prices doubling while you sleep, then another big slump a few years down the line.

Rents are higher now and this time its not cheap credit behind it....All you have pointed out is that the properties that were there pre-bust are still there except we are coming out of austerity and people are more optimistic. not to mention a drop in over 50% in prices in the between years

Potatoeman

fliball123 wrote: »

Rents are higher now and this time its not cheap credit behind it....All you have pointed out is that the properties that were there pre-bust are still there except we are coming out of austerity and people are more optimistic. not to mention a drop in over 50% in prices in the between years

They are 50% down from peak but its questionable how reflective these prices were as most information was based on asking prices. Prices also increased dramatically during the boom.

handlemaster

Housing is as much a free market as other goods that are sold. Some will quiet rightly say that Nama, government action has a big influence etc but that can be said of all products if you understand the product there will always be lots of factors affecting price. The property prices were at the bottom and potential buyers are kicking themselves they didn't buy that is their fault not sellers /government/ banks etc. If you didn't want to buy then why cry now that the prices are going back up. Some on hear will argue that the goverment should interfere more in the market.... they could but would you be willing to pay more taxes for the effort...

Its a market prices will rise / fall / plateau

Potatoeman

handlemaster wrote: »

Housing is as much a free market as other goods that are sold. Some will quiet rightly say that Nama, government action has a big influence etc but that can be said of all products if you understand the product there will always be lots of factors affecting price. The property prices were at the bottom and potential buyers are kicking themselves they didn't buy that is their fault not sellers /government/ banks etc. If you didn't want to buy then why cry now that the prices are going back up. Some on hear will argue that the goverment should interfere more in the market.... they could but would you be willing to pay more taxes for the effort...

Its a market prices will rise / fall / plateau

To be fair it was intervention that has turned the market into a rollercoster ride of price changes. People that have entered it during the boom and after have every right to grumble at the pyramid scheme its turned into.

Mr.McLovin

Its not a market at the moment its some sort of sick charade.

Return to normal, green shoots, its supply and demand, its just the way it is, I've heard it all but the elephant in the room is still there. from 3 days ago

The number of buy-to-let mortgage accounts in arrears is continuing to increase despite rising rents in Dublin and elsewhere.

The latest figures from the Central Bank, however, show the number of homeowners in arrears has fallen again.

Nonetheless, this improvement masked an increase in very long-term arrears, with the number of those behind in their repayments by two years or more continuing to rise.

Its not a normal market. The rules do not apply at the moment. You may loose your home or investment if payments aren't made, bollix, its Ireland and we'll just look there other way but when it comes to creaming it off people for extortionate rents and house prices, sure that's just the market and the way it works, that's capitalism (sometimes!)

I'm not saying repossessions is the answer to all the problems but we need to stop pretending that the market is functioning the way it should be and at least ask the hard questions, no?

handlemaster

Potatoeman wrote: »

To be fair it was intervention that has turned the market into a rollercoster ride of price changes. People that have entered it during the boom and after have every right to grumble at the pyramid scheme its turned into.

and for the australien/ US / Chinese / Hong knog etc etc was it intervention there also that caused prices to change ? Housing is a product whether you like it or not. People can get on with it or sit on the fence. The fence sitters have been caught out and are now complaining. These people will always blame others for their action or inaction if it turns out not to be in their favour.

Idbatterim

All of these properties would suggest that prices are only going up..For people scoffing , scoff but please bring proof dont say people never learn..People need to put a house over their head and rent is dead money and it is also very high when compared to say a mortgage over 35 years.

Rent is not dead money and it wasnt dead money when I was renting and the property next door was losing a thousand a week on paper. It isnt dead money whatever way you look at it, but I think it can feel that when prices are rising and the opposite when they are falling.

But this is exactly why we're saying this is a repeat of 2005 - the circumstances then were exactly the same (and I speak as someone who bought in 2006).

All those arguments were made back then as well. A few years before I bought, when parking spaces were being sold for €100k, I was offered "only" €100k as a mortgage which wouldn't have bought me a park bench to sleep under. As it happened, my circumstances changed, and I was approved for a higher mortgage amount when the time came without taking out 100% mortgage, so you could theoretically call me "lucky".

My mortgage payments were €400 a month less than the cost to rent an equivalent place.

I was a first time buyer competing with investors.

Life expectancy was as high then as it is today. The country was as fertile then as it is today. Unemployment was at an all time low.

Prices were "only going up" - and then look what happened.

My mortgage payments were €400 a month less than the cost to rent an equivalent place.

If they are that much cheaper I am assuming its over a very long period i.e. 25-35 year mortgage...

I agree but there are a few big differences, the first being that prices now are not at 2006 levels and can anyone see a collapse of the magnitude of the boom to trough, given the ridiculous perfect storm of factors both in Ireland and globally, because I would place the odds on that in the next 5 ish + years extremely remote. I remember thinking in 2006 and 2007 this is just beyond insanity and there is no way I would have bought. But I think anyone who waits now is going to be disappointed if they think they will fall back down again significantly in the short term...

seamus

Villa05 wrote: »

Bank assumes current income and outgoings only. the assumption being that paying as much of your income to a bank is more important than having children

I don't think that's the rationale behind it. The rationale behind it is that if you can afford it now, then you will probably be able to afford it in future as your earnings go up.

They also know that when income drops, the mortgage is the last thing that people stop paying. So once the person has been repaying for a while, they will fit life changes around their mortgage repayments and not the other way around.

moxin

fliball123 wrote: »

Some people on here are deluded there has been over 6 years of pent up demand, Dublin has very limited housing and First time buyers have to compete with domestic investors and Global Vulture capitalists. Gone are the days of the 3 times a salary as a valid mechanism for buying a house.

Look at the ages again of these queuers.

20,22, 23, 27

You're trying to tell us that these buyers were trying to buy 6 years ago at age 14, 16, 17 and 21??

fliball wrote:

There has been feck all new builds in dublin over the last 6/7 years

Oh by the way, many people have died or moved to nursing homes from houses over those years, that has freed up 2nd hand property.

Potatoeman

handlemaster wrote: »

and for the australien/ US / Chinese / Hong knog etc etc was it intervention there also that caused prices to change ? Housing is a product whether you like it or not. People can get on with it or sit on the fence. The fence sitters have been caught out and are now complaining. These people will always blame others for their action or inaction if it turns out not to be in their favour.

China has empty cities that people cant afford to live in. Australia has been forecast for a crash. The US had one and is recovering as they repossesed, reached the bottom and recovered.

fliball123

moxin wrote: »

Look at the ages again of these queuers.

20,22, 23, 27

You're trying to tell us that these buyers were trying to buy 6 years ago at age 14, 16, 17 and 21??


Oh by the way, many people have died or moved to nursing homes from houses over those years, that has freed up 2nd hand property.

I am talking about overall are you saying that there is no pent up demand?

Yeah but we are living longer as a nation that takes supply away

People still have no reason or any proof that prices are going to go down any time soon...Its just wishful thinking...and I accept that the boom back in 2006/7 was the same but people were saying they had to come down..then when they crashed people were saying they will never go back up to what they were or that they will go like china and stagnate for 20 years..One thing that is for certain Ireland and Dublin in general bucks any property trend thats out there...

dasdog

Have the rolling news stations picked up this story up yet?

Breaking: Another person has joined the queue to buy a semi-detached house on the outskirts of Dublin. Over to our on site reporter:

Can you put this figure into context as regards the overall size of the queue and what will the ramifications be for the broader economy?

Idbatterim

the people queuing cant be mocked all they like, but watch the next phase (if there is one) have a significant hike in price!

The Spider

All nonsense, the people who ask have we no memories of the crash are the ones who know they should have bought in 2012, they watched the market intently and either due to circumstance (still saving for a deposit) or hoping for further falls missed the bottom, even when it began to rise they called dead cat bounce, I think it's pretty clear at this stage it isn't. They at first decried not being able to buy a home at what they saw as the price they should be able to purchase at in their preferred location (SCD in most cases).

Now we've reached the point that was pointed out well over a year ago that it would soon be all of Dublin due to people buying realising this and the substitution effect. The watchers who should have bought have a few limited moves on the table, most of those moves involve admitting they can't get what they want an should have moved quicker, looking at what they can get and in an acceptable location to them, if no locations are acceptable then they have to carry on renting and eating into savings.

However how many of those who wanted the cheap SCD house would now accept an NCD house at the price they would have gotten a year and a half ago for the SCD one? (hypothetically as the NCD houses are rising out of reach).

What was unacceptable a year ago quickly becomes acceptable as circumstances change and property becomes scarcer, so try to predict what you would find acceptable if you were told you can't buy a house in the next 10 years.

A lot of people also are willfully forgetting the last boom went on for 12 plus years, this one has only started so how long will it go?

Cheap credit isn't driving it, supply and demand.

However on the rent is dead money issue, and as a caveat to the above it depends if you rent for 10 years that's ten years off a mortgage, however if you had bought a house that dropped in value by 100 grand you would have been better renting.

DublinDilbert

Idbatterim wrote: »

the people queuing cant be mocked all they like, but watch the next phase (if there is one) have a significant hike in price!

I think there will be a next phase, they have permission for 1500 homes.

Its a bit pointless them sitting out since Tuesday if there is only 4 or 5 of them, when someone can walk up tomorrow. People sat out for similar amounts of time for garret brooks tickets, at least these people will hopefully have more to show for it.

pconn062

Similar situation up my way in Louth, a friend of mine in fact queued overnight only last week to buy a house. Nice, modern 2 bedroom is a quiet estate. The difference is he got the house, €65,000. Just goes to show how wide the gap is between the Dublin market and the rest of the country. And we're talking Louth here, 45 mins from Dublin, not some housing estate in the middle of Leitrim.

Cuddlesworth

seamus wrote: »

They also know that when income drops, the mortgage is the last thing that people stop paying.

Is that still the case though? Its not like there hasn't been a huge precedent in the last 5 years showing almost no repercussions for not paying a mortgage.

Villa05

seamus wrote: »

They also know that when income drops, the mortgage is the last thing that people stop paying. So once the person has been repaying for a while, they will fit life changes around their mortgage repayments and not the other way around.

So they will avoid having children so that they can pay the max of there income to zombie banks. Ethnic cleansing irish style.

EunanMac

seamus wrote: »

They also know that when income drops, the mortgage is the last thing that people stop paying.

That might have been the case years ago, but given how its worked out in Ireland, you'd be some tool to do that. One of the reason property prices are so high is the extremely low number of repossessions. There is effectively very little downside to not paying your mortgage if things get tight.

handlemaster

Villa05 wrote: »

So they will avoid having children so that they can pay the max of there income to zombie banks. Ethnic cleansing irish style.

I wish people would stop with the "banks... ..ooo The banks". Its boring now. The banks are a business and thankfully their not throwing out mortgages to everyone who asks as somme people just cant afford it.

CatFromHue

pconn062 wrote: »

Similar situation up my way in Louth, a friend of mine in fact queued overnight only last week to buy a house. Nice, modern 2 bedroom is a quiet estate. The difference is he got the house, €65,000. Just goes to show how wide the gap is between the Dublin market and the rest of the country. And we're talking Louth here, 45 mins from Dublin, not some housing estate in the middle of Leitrim.

He may be able to commute to Dublin to work but he won't be able to socialize in Dublin.

Villa05

@spider can you not copy and paste one of your older posts and continually repost it

it would save you alot of time rewriting the same points over and over again

Villa05

handlemaster wrote: »

I wish people would stop with the "banks... ..ooo The banks". Its boring now. The banks are a business and thankfully their not throwing out mortgages to everyone who asks as somme people just cant afford it.

If they were a business, they would suck up there own losses

pconn062

CatFromHue wrote: »

He may be able to commute to Dublin to work but he won't be able to socialize in Dublin.

He lives and works in Louth so has no interest in socialising in Dublin. I only mentioned the distance to Dublin to show the difference that 45 minutes down the road can make in terms of price.

CatFromHue

Yeah, that's a good point.

I've heard similar stories from friends of mine who've relations up there who actually bought some land and built the house from scratch for a very good price.

The thing is if you're from Dublin moving to Louth will end up with you cutting your ties big time with Dublin and your friends.