Queue to buy houses

handlemaster

Villa05 wrote: »

If they were a business, they would suck up there own losses

Now back to the topic

Icepick

fool and their money...

The Spider

Villa05 wrote: »

@spider can you not copy and paste one of your older posts and continually repost it

it would save you alot of time rewriting the same points over and over again

Said the pot to the kettle!

MysticalRain

The Spider wrote: »

Said the pot to the kettle!

In fairness, if you didn't post the same stuff over and over, people wouldn't be echoing back the same responses back to you. We could probably start a drinking game around it at this point (added bonus points for assuming we all want to live in SCD).

As an aside, claiming that the Irish property market is a "free market" makes about as much logical sense as Vladimir Putin claiming Russia has fair and democratic elections. You have to be willfully ignorant of an awful lot of things to believe that.

The Spider

MysticalRain wrote: »

In fairness, if you didn't post the same stuff over and over, people wouldn't be echoing back the same responses back to you. We could probably start a drinking game around it at this point (added bonus points for assuming we all want to live in SCD).

As an aside, claiming that the Irish property market is a "free market" makes about as much logical sense as Vladimir Putin claiming Russia has fair and democratic elections. You have to be willfully ignorant of an awful lot of things to believe that.

In fairness there's a certain cohort repeating the same mantra around here for nearly two years, even though you've been resoundadly proven wrong, the same thing over and over, it's a bubble, prices can't rise, reoossessions'll crash the market, Nama's holding property back, it's the government....yada yada!

MysticalRain

The Spider wrote: »

In fairness there's a certain cohort repeating the same mantra around here for nearly two years, even though you've been resoundadly proven wrong, the same thing over and over, it's a bubble, prices can't rise, reoossessions'll crash the market, Nama's holding property back, it's the government....yada yada!

Well technically we are already in a bubble if prices are decoupled from the economic fundamentals, NAMA did hold property back at least until this year, and the government have been openly calling for higher property prices. Repossessions are on the increase (as predicted by others, and denied by you), so that may a moderate effect on the market.

Prices have risen, I'll give you that. But if this current bubble really takes off, and ends as badly as the last one, then we can expect those prices to be wiped out again.

Cuddlesworth

The Spider wrote: »

In fairness there's a certain cohort repeating the same mantra around here for nearly two years, even though you've been resoundadly proven wrong, the same thing over and over, it's a bubble, prices can't rise, reoossessions'll crash the market, Nama's holding property back, it's the government....yada yada!

Not really. There have been a number of intelligent posters pointing out our economy is in the **** and we don't need house price rises.

And then you coming into every thread spouting the same things over and over again.

• High prices are only a good thing.
• Its inevitable, prices can only go up.
• Rent is dead money.

You really missed your calling in life as a property journalist in the noughties. The only difference between now and two years ago is the sheer happiness that you seem to have over rising prices and the gloating that you were right. All the while ignoring the valid points about the entire situation, in the same way people in 2006 ignored the valid points.

The Spider

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Not really. There have been a number of intelligent posters pointing out our economy is in the **** and we don't need house price rises.

And then you coming into every thread spouting the same things over and over again.

• High prices are only a good thing.
• Its inevitable, prices can only go up.
• Rent is dead money.

You really missed your calling in life as a property journalist in the noughties. The only difference between now and two years ago is the sheer happiness that you seem to have over rising prices and the gloating that you were right. All the while ignoring the valid points about the entire situation, in the same way people in 2006 ignored the valid points.

The economy is not in the ****, we've seen the highest growth in the past while, in fact let me put forward someone you'll no doubt understand on this David Mc Williams, who repeatedly pointed out the last bubble

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/something-major-is-stirring-in-the-irish-economy-the-place-looks-set-to-take-off-30557058.html

Of course I'm happy prices are rising, I bought I wouldn't like negative equity, who would?
The difference is I was a huge bear up to 2010, and have said as much, saw the market and as someone who had watched it intently realised more or less we were at the bottom in 2012, based on going to house viewings and seeing how much they had dropped in pretty well to do areas.

Let's face it if if you could buy a 3 bed semi in Curchtown for less than the price of a dodgy two bed apartment in a rough area of the north side five years previously, well that was as good as a bottom as you were going to get.

So take a good read of what McWilliams has to say, god knows everyone was quoting him quick enough when he pointed out the incoming crash.

makeorbrake

The Spider wrote: »

The economy is not in the ****, we've seen the highest growth in the past while

Sure

- and is there still a major shortfall between what we are spending as a nation and what we are taking in?
- What does the national debt stand at right now?
- In the BTL sector, is it not true that the number of longer-term delinquent mortgages have increased?
- Is there a disconnect between Dublin (and Galway for that matter) prices and 3x earnings guidelines?

The Spider

makeorbrake wrote: »

Sure

- and is there still a major shortfall between what we are spending as a nation and what we are taking in?
- What does the national debt stand at right now?
- In the BTL sector, is it not true that the number of longer-term delinquent mortgages have increased?
- Is there a disconnect between Dublin (and Galway for that matter) prices and 3x earnings guidelines?

Read McWilliams he know more about it than you or I.

moxin

The Spider wrote: »

Of course I'm happy prices are rising, I bought I wouldn't like negative equity, who would?
.

Why are you happy? Do you have first time buyers in your happiness thoughts?

MysticalRain

FFS, this is the same McWilliams who advocated putting €3bn of taxpayers money into AIB in 2008, and you're acting like he's an infallible John-the-Baptist kind of prophet.

We've had some very modest growth recently, and you're acting like it's 2006 all over again. We still have some huge economic problems with private dept, lack of competitiveness, massive government borrowing, thousands on the dole queue etc. Well maybe it is in a way if you think price gouging consumers by the Irish merchant classes and saddling another generation of young people with mortgage dept they can't afford is a measure of "economic progress".

EunanMac

The Spider wrote: »

Read McWilliams he know more about it than you or I.

Would this be when he agrees with your opinion or disagrees with it ?

The Spider

MysticalRain wrote: »

FFS, this is the same McWilliams who advocated putting €3bn of taxpayers money into AIB in 2008, and you're acting like he's an infallible John-the-Baptist kind of prophet.

We've had some very modest growth recently, and you're acting like it's 2006 all over again. We still have some huge economic problems with private dept, lack of competitiveness, massive government borrowing, thousands on the dole queue etc. Well maybe it is in a way if you think price gouging consumers by the Irish merchant classes and saddling another generation of young people with mortgage dept they can't afford is a measure of "economic progress".

You forgot to mention the sky is falling, fact is people like you were quoting McWilliams to beat the band when he seemed to be coming from your side, now he says recovery is under way, he must be a false prophet!

The Spider

moxin wrote: »

Why are you happy? Do you have first time buyers in your happiness thoughts?

I'm happy because I bought at what I see as the right time, there'll always be first time buyers, I was one I just waited invested and saved until I saw what I perceived as value.

MysticalRain

The Spider wrote: »

You forgot to mention the sky is falling, fact is people like you were quoting McWilliams to beat the band when he seemed to be coming from your side, now he says recovery is under way, he must be a false prophet!

You still don't get it. Nobody is saying that the economy won't recover - McW correctly points out the green shoots are appearing already (a better analogy would be that the sky isn't quite a sunny as you seem to think it is, and there are looming storm clouds on the horizon).

What the posters with critical thinking skills are pointing out to you is that modest growth + major structural problems with our economy will not sustain a Celtic Tiger 2.0 style property market. It will carry on for a few years and crash again like it did the last time.

Now if you really are the kind of economic genius you seem to think you are (rather than someone who got lucky, and now hopes the status quo continues because it suits your personal economic circumstances) - then what you will be doing is betting against the market and buying up property now to flip before the bubble bursts again.

moxin

The Spider wrote: »

I'm happy because I bought at what I see as the right time, there'll always be first time buyers, I was one I just waited invested and saved until I saw what I perceived as value.

Do you think rising prices are good for first time buyers?

Pawn

TheDriver wrote: »

Oh My God, I never thought I would see this happening again in my lifetime!

And that's why I was saying "Ok lads, sure" to the ones who were calling me insane for buying in late 2011.. "Wait, the houses soon will be for free" bulls*it... Thank gods I didn't listen.

The Spider

MysticalRain wrote: »

You still don't get it. Nobody is saying that the economy won't recover - McW correctly points out the green shoots are appearing already (a better analogy would be that the sky isn't quite a sunny as you seem to think it is, and there are looming storm clouds on the horizon).

What the posters with critical thinking skills are pointing out to you is that modest growth + major structural problems with our economy will not sustain a Celtic Tiger 2.0 style property market. It will carry on for a few years and crash again like it did the last time.

Now if you really are the kind of economic genius you seem to think you are (rather than someone who got lucky, and now hopes the status quo continues because it suits your personal economic circumstances) - then what you will be doing is betting against the market and buying up property now to flip before the bubble bursts again.

We'll be having the same talk in a year, supply demand simple and I know I've said it numerous times to the point of repetition, no supply lots of demand square the circle.

MysticalRain

The Spider wrote: »

We'll be having the same talk in a year, supply demand simple and I know I've said it numerous times to the point of repetition, no supply lots of demand square the circle.

Not sure why you are mentioning that particular point seeing as it didn't really address the point I was making. I expect prices to rise in the short term i.e. before they eventually crash again. I expect building to ramp up again in the next few years to increase supply, but that may not halt the prices rises. Supply was abundant during the first bubble too, and that didn't stop prices rising then either.

MysticalRain

I would also point out that the government could do a lot to increase supply in Dublin as well - use it or lose it taxes to stop land hoarding, re-zoning land for high rise buildings, and legislation to make apartments more attractive to live in - higher standards for size and quality, greater protection for renters etc.

The Spider

MysticalRain wrote: »

I would also point out that the government could do a lot to increase supply in Dublin as well - use it or lose it taxes to stop land hoarding, re-zoning land for high rise buildings, and legislation to make apartments more attractive to live in - higher standards for size and quality, greater protection for renters etc.

Shane Coleman said pretty much the same thing on Newstalk this evening, it was pretty much discredited by the other presenters as a tax on someone who may not be able to sell the land or else may have borrowed to buy it and can't afford to act on it, after the crash. Or can't find builders who can build on it and make a profit, either way was seen as unworkable.

Where do you stop? Plenty of long back gardens that would take another couple of houses in Clontarf easily, you could add a third to the supply of one of the most desirable parts of Dublin by building in their gardens.

One_Of_Shanks

Change of pace here. I have absolutely no clue about all things economical. I'm admittedly hopeless financially.
But just one question to those of you who are more knowledgeable, If there is a shortage/crisis of housing in Dublin, then why can you find a good selection of what I would call "attractive" 3 bed semi's in Clondalkin going for 150k-180k?

I'm not being funny, but if you can get a decent 3 bed semi-De in Clondalkin for that money then is it really a crisis?

ArraMusha

Queuing is one thing, paying over the Value is another.
I hope those people get to see the home (not house) of their dreams, and they negotiate a fair price for the most important purchase in their life. Anything else is stupid. A lot to be said for a market without major fluxuation, which is good for everyone.

ArraMusha

Queuing is one thing, paying over the Value is another.
I hope those people get to see the home (not house) of their dreams, and they negotiate a fair price for the most important purchase in their life. Anything else is stupid. A lot to be said for a market without major fluxuation, which is good for everyone.

Barely Hedged

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Not really. There have been a number of intelligent posters pointing out our economy is in the **** and we don't need house price rises.

And then you coming into every thread spouting the same things over and over again.

• High prices are only a good thing.
• Its inevitable, prices can only go up.
• Rent is dead money.

You really missed your calling in life as a property journalist in the noughties. The only difference between now and two years ago is the sheer happiness that you seem to have over rising prices and the gloating that you were right. All the while ignoring the valid points about the entire situation, in the same way people in 2006 ignored the valid points.

The economy is not in the ****. Please refer to the main economic indicators announced monthly, their trends over the past two years and the ability of the government to refinance debt and offload equity stakes in banks in a buoyant m&a and equities market.

The Spider

One_Of_Shanks wrote: »

Change of pace here. I have absolutely no clue about all things economical. I'm admittedly hopeless financially.
But just one question to those of you who are more knowledgeable, If there is a shortage/crisis of housing in Dublin, then why can you find a good selection of what I would call "attractive" 3 bed semi's in Clondalkin going for 150k-180k?

I'm not being funny, but if you can get a decent 3 bed semi-De in Clondalkin for that money then is it really a crisis?

Yep you sure can see below

http://www.daft.ie/dublin-city/houses-for-sale/clondalkin/?s%5Bmxp%5D=200000&s%5Bmnb%5D=3

Problem is people don't want to live in Clondalkin, and some would say for pretty valid reasons, however prices keep going up, people will have to bug where they can.

MysticalRain

The Spider wrote: »

Shane Coleman said pretty much the same thing on Newstalk this evening, it was pretty much discredited by the other presenters as a tax on someone who may not be able to sell the land or else may have borrowed to buy it and can't afford to act on it, after the crash. Or can't find builders who can build on it and make a profit, either way was seen as unworkable.

Flimsy excuses by the usual vested interests I see. Builders that can't make a profit building property on prime city land in a country obsessed with buying property. That's pure comedy gold!

Where do you stop? Plenty of long back gardens that would take another couple of houses in Clontarf easily, you could add a third to the supply of one of the most desirable parts of Dublin by building in their gardens.

You're quoting edge cases here to try and discredit the overall argument. The common scenario would be derelict buildings or otherwise unused land, of which there is loads around Dublin.

The government could of course add positive incentives like tax breaks for the sake of argument.

Barely Hedged

MysticalRain wrote: »

Well technically we are already in a bubble if prices are decoupled from the economic fundamentals, NAMA did hold property back at least until this year, and the government have been openly calling for higher property prices. Repossessions are on the increase (as predicted by others, and denied by you), so that may a moderate effect on the market.

Prices have risen, I'll give you that. But if this current bubble really takes off, and ends as badly as the last one, then we can expect those prices to be wiped out again.

Prices fell too far in certain parts of Dublin. What were seeing now is a rebalancing.

Reposessions will not happen on a scale that impacts the market. It makes no sense to offload or fire sale your asset in a stable environment for the underlying asset you hold.

The last recession was as severe as has been seen in 80 years. I don't think it will happen again in just 5 years.

Barely Hedged

moxin wrote: »

Why are you happy? Do you have first time buyers in your happiness thoughts?

It's never an ideal situation where house prices are rising for first time buyers. However much of the large increases have been seen in the more expensive parts of Dublin. As has been pointed out here on many occasions, houses in many parts of Dublin I.e. Clondalkin, Tallaght, Blanchardstown and Swords are affordable to fts. Should I feel sorry for a ftb because they cannot buy in Ranelagh but could in 2012?