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Queue to buy houses

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    #182
    EunanMac
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭EunanMac


    Do people think that two tier house prices are a good thing nationwide ?


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    #183
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    MysticalRain wrote: »
    I would also point out that the government could do a lot to increase supply in Dublin as well - use it or lose it taxes to stop land hoarding, re-zoning land for high rise buildings, and legislation to make apwartments more attractive to live in - higher standards for size and quality, greater protection for renters etc.

    Yes, but it can take 3 years to develop a greenfield site. So do you buy at what I think are still reasonable levels or wait it out for 3/4 years and pay how much in rent in the meantime?


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    #184
    One_Of_Shanks
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,436 ✭✭✭One_Of_Shanks


    The Spider wrote: »
    Yep you sure can see below
    Problem is people don't want to live in Clondalkin, and some would say for pretty valid reasons, however prices keep going up, people will have to bug where they can.

    Thanks. Yeah that's what I was basing my point on.

    Ok, fair enough, like you said some people don't want to live in Clondalkin.

    However, what I was trying to say is that if there is a CRISIS in housing in Dublin, and you can buy a 3-bed semiD there for 150k , then is it actually a crisis at all?

    They seem like nice houses. Good enough to raise a decent sized family in (3 beds and a garden)

    So is it really a crisis?

    If it's a crisis then surely it should have got to the point where people can't turn their noses up at Clondalkin?


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    #185
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    EunanMac wrote: »
    Do people think that two tier house prices are a good thing nationwide ?

    We're prices ever comparable between Dublin and the "country" on an absolute basis?


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    #186
    MysticalRain
    Registered Users Posts: 1,428 ✭✭✭MysticalRain


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Prices fell too far in certain parts of Dublin. What were seeing now is a rebalancing.

    Reposessions will not happen on a scale that impacts the market. It makes no sense to offload or fire sale your asset in a stable environment for the underlying asset you hold.
    Not sure if I would consider price rises of 20% per year as a healthy rebalancing.

    I agree somewhat that we won't see repossessions on a mass scale if we had a free market. Although even a small scale release of repossessed properties would affect the market if supply low.
    The last recession was as severe as has been seen in 80 years. I don't think it will happen again in just 5 years.
    True, but by the same token, we will probably never see things return back to the peak of the Celtic Tiger either. The thing that people forgot about the last recession as well is that it was a culmination of a lot of structural issues with Western economies, and many of those problems are not going away for the foreseeable future - wage stagnation, inequality, outsourcing and automation which eliminates middle/working class jobs. There will never by enough jobs to re-employ all those unskilled or semi-skilled workers who lost their jobs in the building industry.


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    #187
    EunanMac
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭EunanMac


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    We're prices ever comparable between Dublin and the "country" on an absolute basis?

    There was always a difference, but should the gap continue to grow even bigger, would that be a good thing ?

    Or do people only want high house prices in Dublin ?


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    #188
    MysticalRain
    Registered Users Posts: 1,428 ✭✭✭MysticalRain


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Yes, but it can take 3 years to develop a greenfield site.
    It depends on the company - the one I work for builds industrial facilities on green field sites in a fraction of that time.
    So do you buy at what I think are still reasonable levels or wait it out for 3/4 years and pay how much in rent in the meantime?
    That's exactly the decision I had to make myself this year, partly forced on me when I was evicted from my last apartment when the BTL owner had to sell it because she was in financial difficulties.

    Short term: 1-2 years, buy now.
    Long term: 3-5 years, wait until the downturn in the current cycle when prices drop again.

    As I needed a place sooner rather than later, I had to buy this year.


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    #189
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    EunanMac wrote: »
    There was always a difference, but should the gap continue to grow even bigger, would that be a good thing ?

    That's part of an economic cycle. Should you be surprised that asset prices are increasing faster in the main centre of employment for the country than the rest as we emerge from recession and into growth?


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    #190
    EunanMac
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭EunanMac


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    That's part of an economic cycle. Should you be surprised that asset prices are increasing faster in the main centre of employment for the country than the rest as we emerge from recession and into growth?

    No, but why should it remain the only real employment centre ?

    Sole reliance on one city is not a good idea.

    A country is only as strong as its weakest links.


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    #191
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    MysticalRain wrote: »
    It depends on the company - the one I work for builds industrial facilities on green field sites in a fraction of that time.


    That's exactly the decision I had to make myself this year, partly forced on me when I was evicted from my last apartment when the BTL owner had to sell it because she was in financial difficulties.

    Short term: 1-2 years, buy now.
    Long term: 3-5 years, wait until the downturn in the current cycle when prices drop again.

    As I needed a place sooner rather than later, I had to buy this year.

    Industrial building is a whole different kettle of fish to residential both in the building, marketing and selling.

    I agree. Everybody's situation is bespoke and you've got to make the decision as you see fit for your own circumstances.

    Prices are still cheap now compared to what they should be. Houses in many parts of Dublin are very affordable. Can I foresee a drop in house prices of 50% again - no. If there was a large drop they'd only fall back to around the same levels as now. People forget or have lost the power of context and don't acknowledge that what happened in 08 was unprecedented for our generation and likely not to be repeated anytime soon


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    #192
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    EunanMac wrote: »
    No, but why should it remain the only real employment centre ?

    Sole reliance on one city is not a good idea.

    A country is only as strong as its weakest links.

    The reliance might be right now but as we continue through the cycle rebalancing will take place. Economic cycles aren't taps where you turn it on and the next day were all saved. It will take time and a lot of people seem to be lost on that point


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    #193
    EunanMac
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭EunanMac


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    The reliance might be right now but as we continue through the cycle rebalancing will take place. Economic cycles aren't taps where you turn it on and the next day were all saved. It will take time and a lot of people seem to be lost on that point

    Where has anyone claimed that strawman ?


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    #194
    MysticalRain
    Registered Users Posts: 1,428 ✭✭✭MysticalRain


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Industrial building is a whole different kettle of fish to residential both in the building, marketing and selling.

    I agree. Everybody's situation is bespoke and you've got to make the decision as you see fit for your own circumstances.

    Prices are still cheap now compared to what they should be. Houses in many parts of Dublin are very affordable. Can I foresee a drop in house prices of 50% again - no. If there was a large drop they'd only fall back to around the same levels as now. People forget or have lost the power of context and don't acknowledge that what happened in 08 was unprecedented for our generation and likely not to be repeated anytime soon

    I would agree also that if prices did drop in the worse case scenario, it would be back to 2012 levels (I like to joke that that would put me in a small amount of negative equity)

    I tend to take a less optimistic view than you over all - the "great recession" could just as easily be followed by a period known as the "great stagnation" for a lot of western economies (I think we will be luckier than most if that happens due to our competitiveness relative to other economies).

    Prices only seem like "good value" relative to the peak of the bubble. For a normal functioning economy, never mind one with as many problems as ours, I still consider them to be ludicrous.


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    #195
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    MysticalRain wrote: »
    Not sure if I would consider price rises of 20% per year as a healthy rebalancing.

    I agree somewhat that we won't see repossessions on a mass scale if we had a free market. Although even a small scale release of repossessed properties would affect the market if supply low.


    True, but by the same token, we will probably never see things return back to the peak of the Celtic Tiger either. The thing that people forgot about the last recession as well is that it was a culmination of a lot of structural issues with Western economies, and many of those problems are not going away for the foreseeable future - wage stagnation, inequality, outsourcing and automation which eliminates middle/working class jobs. There will never by enough jobs to re-employ all those unskilled or semi-skilled workers who lost their jobs in the building industry.

    20% I feel is due to a large rush of people trying to buy once they saw the tide has turned. Will it continue at that rate for each of the next 5 years - no. It will moderate but won't drop.

    I don't agree in the stable market we find ourselves now with more clearer expectations of property prices compared to 11 and 12 that repossessions will dent prices

    That's a tale of economies through the years. Old practices die out and new ones replace them. Humanity always copes. I don't get this doom and gloom merchandary.


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    #196
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    EunanMac wrote: »
    Where has anyone claimed that strawman ?

    You say were solely reliant on Dublin.

    I say were not and its merely a function of the point in the economic cycle we find ourselves in.


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    #197
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    MysticalRain wrote: »
    I would agree also that if prices did drop in the worse case scenario, it would be back to 2012 levels (I like to joke that that would put me in a small amount of negative equity)

    I tend to take a less optimistic view than you over all - the "great recession" could just as easily be followed by a period known as the "great stagnation" for a lot of western economies (I think we will be luckier than most if that happens due to our competitiveness relative to other economies).

    Prices only seem like "good value" relative to the peak of the bubble. For a normal functioning economy, never mind one with as many problems as ours, I still consider them to be ludicrous.

    I use the peak as a benchmark but I don't price in value off that benchmark. There is still a lot of value in the housing market in loads of places on Dublin relative to earnings * 4 for a couple. Just because Dublin 4/6 is unattainable to a lot of people and prices are more volatile should not skew the argument.

    This is based on the Core of Europe slowing down at the moment. They'll take the inevitable steps to restructure if they requireit. True, places like Japan have stagnated in the past but their economy is nowhere near comparable to the open market of the EU. Sure look at how Greece have turned it around as a good example.


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    #198
    EunanMac
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭EunanMac


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    You say were solely reliant on Dublin.

    I say were not and its merely a function of the point in the economic cycle we find ourselves in.

    What you said was this :
    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    The reliance might be right now but as we continue through the cycle rebalancing will take place. Economic cycles aren't taps where you turn it on and the next day were all saved. It will take time and a lot of people seem to be lost on that point

    Which still has nothing to do with the point of over reliance on one city for employment, which nationally has not been addressed then or now, pre or post recession.


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    #199
    MysticalRain
    Registered Users Posts: 1,428 ✭✭✭MysticalRain


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    20% I feel is due to a large rush of people trying to buy once they saw the tide has turned. Will it continue at that rate for each of the next 5 years - no. It will moderate but won't drop.

    I don't agree in the stable market we find ourselves now with more clearer expectations of property prices compared to 11 and 12 that repossessions will dent prices

    Speaking as someone looking at the market now, I don't see much stability now at all. Prices are all over the place in my personal experience. I'm not saying things might settle down in a years time, but right now, I'm not seeing it.
    That's a tale of economies through the years. Old practices die out and new ones replace them. Humanity always copes. I don't get this doom and gloom merchandary.
    True, but where are the jobs going to come from? I can't see an equivalent number of jobs being created that were eliminated by globalisation and automation.


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    #200
    MysticalRain
    Registered Users Posts: 1,428 ✭✭✭MysticalRain


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    I use the peak as a benchmark but I don't price in value off that benchmark. There is still a lot of value in the housing market in loads of places on Dublin relative to earnings * 4 for a couple. Just because Dublin 4/6 is unattainable to a lot of people and prices are more volatile should not skew the argument.
    Prices are volatile in a lot more areas than D4/6. There was a lot of price variations in the IFSC where I was looking as well, partly due to a lot of repossessions coming on to the market in recent months.
    This is based on the Core of Europe slowing down at the moment. They'll take the inevitable steps to restructure if they requireit. True, places like Japan have stagnated in the past but their economy is nowhere near comparable to the open market of the EU. Sure look at how Greece have turned it around as a good example.
    There is also the same thing happening in the US and also a potential property bubble exploding in China as well. Not sure if Greece is a good example to quote, as that is still an economic basket case. Given what I've seen so far, I have zero faith in EU leaders to deal with the crisis.


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    #201
    EunanMac
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭EunanMac


    MysticalRain wrote: »
    Given what I've seen so far, I have zero faith in EU leaders to deal with the crisis.

    Funny how the EU were able to ban things like cutting turf in Bogs, but were happy enough to allow the likes of Anglo and the Irish financial 'regulator' carry on the way they did.


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    #202
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    EunanMac wrote: »
    What you said was this :



    Which still has nothing to do with the point of over reliance on one city for employment, which nationally has not been addressed then or now, pre or post recession.

    How many years of full employment did we have in Ireland pre-recession or was that just Dublin where there was full employment?


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    #203
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    EunanMac wrote: »
    Funny how the EU were able to ban things like cutting turf in Bogs, but were happy enough to allow the likes of Anglo and the Irish financial 'regulator' carry on the way they did.

    The Irish fiancial regulator was appointed by your elected representatives. If you didnt like it you shouldn't have elected those representatives


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    #204
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    MysticalRain wrote: »
    Speaking as someone looking at the market now, I don't see much stability now at all. Prices are all over the place in my personal experience. I'm not saying things might settle down in a years time, but right now, I'm not seeing it.


    True, but where are the jobs going to come from? I can't see an equivalent number of jobs being created that were eliminated by globalisation and automation.

    As the economic indicators remain stable and they have for the past two years at least, so too will I believe that the housing market and offer prices will remain stable. When we had huge uncertainty around economics indicators it coincided with dropping house prices...

    I really have no idea but I know one thing man\woman are inventive animals and will change and adapt to situations as they have done many times before


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    #205
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    MysticalRain wrote: »
    Prices are volatile in a lot more areas than D4/6. There was a lot of price variations in the IFSC where I was looking as well, partly due to a lot of repossessions coming on to the market in recent months.


    There is also the same thing happening in the US and also a potential property bubble exploding in China as well. Not sure if Greece is a good example to quote, as that is still an economic basket case. Given what I've seen so far, I have zero faith in EU leaders to deal with the crisis.

    I agree. Volatile in D2 and D1 apartments as people look to huridly park their cash, at relatively speaking, any cost to obtain yield as depo rates are so low.

    I gave Greece as an example of restructuring taking place.

    I'd be happy enough for the US a huge spending power to be ok. China is a long story and I've been reading about the impending property collapse off SE Asia and China experts there since 08. Some stories coming out of there are worrying though but they do have vast amounts of cheap Labour and a huge urbanisation push going on


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    #206
    tigershould
    Registered Users Posts: 545 ✭✭✭tigershould


    I'm looking for a 4 bed detached in ncd and 400k seems good value. While I would prefer something not in a estate, I was interested in looking at these when I heard of them last week. I viewed another property not 10 mins from here on Wednesday and there were 20 cars worth of viewers (no exaggeration). I will have a look at these later.


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    #207
    tigershould
    Registered Users Posts: 545 ✭✭✭tigershould


    http://m.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0904/641354-ecb-meeting/

    And for all those saying this time it's not a bubble because there's no cheap credit, it looks like the ECB will soon flood the market with 40B of cheap credit...


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    #208
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,280 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    tigershould wrote: »
    http://m.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0904/641354-ecb-meeting/

    And for all those saying this time it's not a bubble because there's no cheap credit, it looks like the ECB will soon flood the market with 40B of cheap credit...

    I saw an ad for a capitol one credit card in the uk a few weeks ago, same as 2006 offering free balance transfers and cash advance and all the other crap the high interest , poor credit history card used to offer in the boom times, cheap sub prime credit is on its way back people, very very soon


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    #209
    EunanMac
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭EunanMac


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    The Irish fiancial regulator was appointed by your elected representatives. If you didnt like it you shouldn't have elected those representatives

    Were you not old enough to vote ?


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    #210
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    EunanMac wrote: »
    We're you not old enough to vote ?

    Great reply.

    Yes, I was


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    #211
    EunanMac
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭EunanMac


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Great reply.

    Yes, I was

    Thanks, why didn't you, and if you did who did you vote for ?


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