Queue to buy houses

Uriel.

lima wrote: »

They did but I believe it's now cancelled as they anticipated the population to grow in Swords to 100,000. Apparently it will be a long time before it grows to this amount so it's probably going to be another generation or two before it happens.

Pity though as it would have been a handy place to live with the Metro.

The only thing with that is that MN was passing the back of the Pavilions. If MN was to properly service Swords (town) it was designed wrong. If you take the part of Swords up around Rathbeale (JCs etc and beyond) - Swords Manor, Applewood etc. MN would have been 20 - 30 mins walk depending on the part of Swords you were in. I would argue that much of Swords future growth will be towards Rolestown and Ashsbourne so MN was never going to properly deal with that. As such, 30 mins walk plus 20 mins Metro Ride would only be marginally quicker than the current bus services IMO.

seamus

Villa05 wrote: »

Interesting outcome yesterday, It would make you think how much of the recent increases are down to demand and how much is down to hype frightening people to pull the trigger.

Same as with the original boom, where there is demand, there will be hype. It's next to impossible to build hype without some decent level of demand.

This talk of pent up demand does not stand up from yesterdays results.

It does to a certain extent. 53 houses on sale, 45 of them are sale agreed after a single day. It's certainly not the same level of rabid demand that Gerry Gannon wanted us to think existed, but it's certainly an indicator that there is a lot of demand in this market when you can go sale agreed on 45 houses at close to €300k in the middle of nowhere with few facilities.

Emigration, Lower wages, Unemployment all concentrated amongst the under 35's
All these indicators are pointing towards a classic dead cat bounce in a "normal" market

A dead cat bounce would be seeing prices increase with an economy in stagnation. This would indicate some abnormal increase in demand. As it is emigration is on the down, employment is on the up, wages are on the up, and we as a population are sitting on a massive trove of savings.
All the indicators are in fact that demand does exist and there are good reasons to assume it will continue, hopefully at a normal pace and not subject to the media maniuplations of Gannon and his ilk.

gladrags

I don't think anyone knows what exactly is going on here, other than prices have rose in Dublin.

There are so many if and but reasons put forward, by posters here and the economic "experts" Throw in those with vested interest( agents, media, banks etc), and you have what appears to be total confusion.

jmayo

fliball123 wrote: »

Why is earnings * 4 still a valid mechanism for buying property when its global and people with money on the hip all over the world are looking at ireland and buying. its no longer valid when it comes to Dublin at least maybe the rest of the country yes but not Dublin..The same way London would be more than earnings * 4 or Paris.

You forgot New York. :rolleyes:

Why oh why are we always comparing Dublin to London and Paris when it comes to property.

EunanMac

fliball123 wrote: »

Why is earnings * 4 still a valid mechanism for buying property when its global and people with money on the hip all over the world are looking at ireland and buying. its no longer valid when it comes to Dublin at least maybe the rest of the country yes but not Dublin..The same way London would be more than earnings * 4 or Paris.

Paris or London ? Lol

EunanMac

With internet rates cut again, will we ever see high rates again ?

fliball123

jmayo wrote: »

You forgot New York. :rolleyes:

Why oh why are we always comparing Dublin to London and Paris when it comes to property.

The fact is Dublin is a major city when it comes to foreign direct investment, we would have a big advantage over London due to the Euro and big one over Paris due to English being our first language, so I dont know where the laughing comes in add in our lower corpo tax and we are a tax haven .. I dont know if your trying to be contentious maybe this will put some perspective on it

http://www.itv.com/news/london/2014-09-03/is-this-britains-narrowest-house-at-7ft-wide/

EunanMac

seamus wrote: »

As it is emigration is on the down, employment is on the up, wages are on the up, and we as a population are sitting on a massive trove of savings

Enda is that you again, Can you take me to your planet ?

gaius c

EunanMac wrote: »

Paris or London ? Lol

Did you know that Ireland has even less space to build than Hong Kong?
The only way to alleviate pressure on housing stock is to reclaim Dublin bay and build on it.

EunanMac

gaius c wrote: »

Did you know that Ireland has even less space to build than Hong Kong?
The only way to alleviate pressure on housing stock is to reclaim Dublin bay and build on it.

Now we're Hong Kong as well as Paris and London.

The_Morrigan

EunanMac, can you try get involved in the discussion and avoid the one liners. You're derailing the thread.

EunanMac

Sure, can you pm me the approved script ?

jmayo

fliball123 wrote: »

The fact is Dublin is a major city when it comes to foreign direct investment, we would have a big advantage over London due to the Euro and big one over Paris due to English being our first language, so I dont know where the laughing comes in add in our lower corpo tax and we are a tax haven .. I dont know if your trying to be contentious maybe this will put some perspective on it

http://www.itv.com/news/london/2014-09-03/is-this-britains-narrowest-house-at-7ft-wide/

Am I being contentious pointing out the fact that some people have an overinflated opinion of their capital city, the capital city that would be a backwater but for fact that some foreign multinationals site here basically for tax avoidance purposes.

To me London and Paris are long establisehed world leading cities that have their own huge market, large population density, headquarters of home grown multinational commerical enterprises and are administrative centres for large countries that aren't totally beholden to FDI.
Oh and very importantly they have proper functional public transport, not a few mickey mouse tram and rail links.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote: »

Can you point out these indicators are as I can not see them?

Employment amongst under 35's continues to fall in this recovery haven fallen by over a third in the bust
http://cdn3.independent.ie/incoming/article30568797.ece/713ef/binary/w620/NEWS-Recovery.png

Emigration/Unemployment
The lack of opportunities for the young are a central factor in the three-fold rise in emigration since the recession began - around 30,000 people departed each year before 2007, rising to a peak of 89,000 in the year to April 2013. But a small bright spot in yesterday's figures was a fall in the numbers emigrating in the year to April 2014, all of which was accounted for by Irish nationals - See more at: http://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/concerns-for-recovery-as-jobs-growth-slowed-to-snails-pace-in-first-half-of-year-30539658.html#sthash.FeyilDP7.dpuf
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/concerns-for-recovery-as-jobs-growth-slowed-to-snails-pace-in-first-half-of-year-30539658.html



We have a divided country, those that were protected during the bust and those that had to pay the price. The people that have had to pay the price are the future property buyers. Current prices reflect the protected demographics income while future prices will reflect on younger peoples incomes, hence my "dead cat bounce" analogy. It may be a large bounce such is the interference in the market by various state bodies

MouseTail

EunanMac wrote: »

Sure, can you pm me the approved script ?

How it normally works on here is.... If you disagree with a post, you provide statistics and links to disprove the posters assertions.
eg, to counter Seamus' argument, you would find us the statistics to show that
Emigration is rising
Employment is falling
wages are falling
There is not huge savings

rather than posting a juvenile one liner, which frankly just makes you look silly.

fliball123

jmayo wrote: »

Am I being contentious pointing out the fact that some people have an overinflated opinion of their capital city, the capital city that would be a backwater but for fact that some foreign multinationals site here basically for tax avoidance purposes.

To me London and Paris are long establisehed world leading cities that have their own huge market, large population density, headquarters of home grown multinational commerical enterprises and are administrative centres for large countries that aren't totally beholden to FDI.
Oh and very importantly they have proper functional public transport, not a few mickey mouse tram and rail links.

I don't have an over inflated opinion of Dublin, I am pointing out that a large % of the jobs and the population within Ireland are located in or within commute of Dublin. This can not be debated.

As has been pointed out Dublin has less space to build new houses than any of the other cities that you compare too.

Yet the multinationals are here..which you cannot argue with either..It may be back water , it may be a sh1t hole but it is one of the most attractive cities for new companies to locate to. This is due to speaking English, use of the euro and the fact that the corpo tax is very low, not to mentions loop holes like the double irish. You can say its a sh1thole but the multinationals only see Euro/Dollar signs. Nothing points this out better than the fact that when chicita and ffyfes bananas were about to merge they were going to have their head quarters in Dublin despite the fact that not one banana is grown in Ireland.

I agree with regards to the domestic markets within both London and Paris they are ahead of Dublin, but property in both cities are much more expensive than Dublin and they are also more expensive when compared to other cities in their countries then Dublin is when compared with the rest of Ireland.

Totally agree with the infrastructure and transport system London, Paris and the other capitals are streets ahead.

The fact still remains Dublin is a hub for multinationals and IT and Ireland is starting to grow. People say its a bubble , some say it over shot when it went down too low. My thinking is the vulture capitalists would not be throwing a shed load of money at the risk of a dead cat bounce. Then again that is my opinion and I would not advise anyone on how to proceed with regard to property in this country and Dublin in particular as it has and does not follow any known trend of other countries/cities around the world

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

Employment amongst under 35's continues to fall in this recovery haven fallen by over a third in the bust
http://cdn3.independent.ie/incoming/article30568797.ece/713ef/binary/w620/NEWS-Recovery.png

Emigration/Unemployment
The lack of opportunities for the young are a central factor in the three-fold rise in emigration since the recession began - around 30,000 people departed each year before 2007, rising to a peak of 89,000 in the year to April 2013. But a small bright spot in yesterday's figures was a fall in the numbers emigrating in the year to April 2014, all of which was accounted for by Irish nationals - See more at: http://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/concerns-for-recovery-as-jobs-growth-slowed-to-snails-pace-in-first-half-of-year-30539658.html#sthash.FeyilDP7.dpuf
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/concerns-for-recovery-as-jobs-growth-slowed-to-snails-pace-in-first-half-of-year-30539658.html



We have a divided country, those that were protected during the bust and those that had to pay the price. The people that have had to pay the price are the future property buyers. Current prices reflect the protected demographics income while future prices will reflect on younger peoples incomes, hence my "dead cat bounce" analogy. It may be a large bounce such is the interference in the market by various state bodies

Firstly that does not take any note of people actually coming into the country looking for work,

secondly you still have no evidence of a dead cat bounce and you make no allowance for the fact that although it is local housing, people are competing in a global market. Its not just competition between first time buyers and guys trading up or down or the amateur landlord. There are companies from outside of Ireland buying up Dublin property in bulk.

As I pointed out in a seperate post. Dublin has limited space for building, which will also quell the supply side.

Villa05

Unless salaries improve for our younger folk which is unlikely. i cant see current price/inceases being sustainable.

keeping them this high means far too many people will need subsidies for accomodation. We cant afford that.

huge tracts of development land on dublin. the market is broken/rigged hence this resource is not being utilised

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

Unless salaries improve for our younger folk which is unlikely. i cant see current price/inceases being sustainable.

keeping them this high means far too many people will need subsidies for accomodation. We cant afford that.

huge tracts of development land on dublin. the market is broken/rigged hence this resource is not being utilised

Once again how does that feed into the global market with regards to Dublin property price?

As pointed out its no longer a case of billy the new degree holder looking for a gaff as he starts his new low paid job , or the couple looking to trade up..there are guys out there with substantial budgets to buy property.

All you have to do is look at the rental yield a company can make with regard to property not to mention the low corpo tax this company would pay on this profit..

With regard to your pemise that people will need subsidies if they remain high ...How does the likes of Paris, London compare their prices are higher.

The government need to step in and punish anyone buying property in bulk for rental purposes

jmayo

fliball123 wrote: »

I don't have an over inflated opinion of Dublin, I am pointing out that a large % of the jobs and the population within Ireland are located in or within commute of Dublin. This can not be debated.

Did I ever say that Dublin did not have a very large chunk of our population or that Dublin would have most of our job opportunities.
Where have I ever said otherwise ?
But that still doesn't mean that Dublin should be considered on a par with London or Paris.

fliball123 wrote: »

As has been pointed out Dublin has less space to build new houses than any of the other cities that you compare too.

This thing about lack of space in Dublin to build is a bit of an Irish thing and due to fact that we have always considered building out rather than up.
Eventually we are going to have to vary our building habits in cities so that we don't have even worse urban sprawl.
I have seen the same sprawling suburbs in countries like Australia, US, etc where space is not a worry.

fliball123 wrote: »

Yet the multinationals are here..which you cannot argue with either..It may be back water , it may be a sh1t hole but it is one of the most attractive cities for new companies to locate to. This is due to speaking English, use of the euro and the fact that the corpo tax is very low, not to mentions loop holes like the double irish. You can say its a sh1thole but the multinationals only see Euro/Dollar signs. Nothing points this out better than the fact that when chicita and ffyfes bananas were about to merge they were going to have their head quarters in Dublin despite the fact that not one banana is grown in Ireland.

Where did I ever say it was a shjthole.
BTW ever driven around the outer limits of Paris ?

We are the biggest producer of bananas in Europe.
Note I said producer not grower.
If you know so much about bananas you would surely know that they are almost ripened in controlled conditions in huge warehouses so that they can then reach the supermarkets and the consumers just as they ready to eat.

I am beginning to dispair when I see you using the fact two fruit and veg companies are going to site their HQ here in Dublin rather than maybe Charlotte, North Carolina as a reason to claim Dublin property prices should be on a par with London or Paris.

fliball123 wrote: »

The fact still remains Dublin is a hub for multinationals and IT and Ireland is starting to grow. People say its a bubble , some say it over shot when it went down too low. My thinking is the vulture capitalists would not be throwing a shed load of money at the risk of a dead cat bounce.

Then again how cheap did they get those properties.
See where they are financing these deals, it aint through local banks.
Look at what their rental yields are in comparison to other markets.

For your example of vulture funds betting on Ireland I counter with how the vulture funds that invested in BOI have sold off some of their holding.
If Ireland was such a great bet would they not have kept their original stake rather than taking some of their profits now ?

fliball123 wrote: »

Then again that is my opinion and I would not advise anyone on how to proceed with regard to property in this country and Dublin in particular as it has and does not follow any known trend of other countries/cities around the world

I do agree that our property market, and in particular with reference to Dublin, has not followed any known trend and I think most of that is down to the intervention by the state in trying to protect the vested interests at all costs.
Sadly the cost is going to be borne by future generations.

fliball123

jmayo wrote: »

Did I ever say that Dublin did not have a very large chunk of our population or that Dublin would have most of our job opportunities.
Where have I ever said otherwise ?
But that still doesn't mean that Dublin should be considered on a par with London or Paris.



This thing about lack of space in Dublin to build is a bit of an Irish thing and due to fact that we have always considered building out rather than up.
Eventually we are going to have to vary our building habits in cities so that we don't have even worse urban sprawl.
I have seen the same sprawling suburbs in countries like Australia, US, etc where space is not a worry.



Where did I ever say it was a shjthole.
BTW ever driven around the outer limits of Paris ?

We are the biggest producer of bananas in Europe.
Note I said producer not grower.
If you know so much about bananas you would surely know that they are almost ripened in controlled conditions in huge warehouses so that they can then reach the supermarkets and the consumers just as they ready to eat.

I am beginning to dispair when I see you using the fact two fruit and veg companies are going to site their HQ here in Dublin rather than maybe Charlotte, North Carolina as a reason to claim Dublin property prices should be on a par with London or Paris.



Then again how cheap did they get those properties.
See where they are financing these deals, it aint through local banks.
Look at what their rental yields are in comparison to other markets.

For your example of vulture funds betting on Ireland I counter with how the vulture funds that invested in BOI have sold off some of their holding.
If Ireland was such a great bet would they not have kept their original stake rather than taking some of their profits now ?



I do agree that our property market, and in particular with reference to Dublin, has not followed any known trend and I think most of that is down to the intervention by the state in trying to protect the vested interests at all costs.
Sadly the cost is going to be borne by future generations.

No but your playing down the fact that Dublin is in growth and still a major attraction for comapanies to start up in or to relocate in. My point about the bananas was to the fact that we don't grow bananas yet this merger which would of been huge would of had its head quarters in Dublin...Just proving my point about the attractiveness of doing business here.

I have said Dublin is not on par with either London or Paris, then again both property markets in these 2 cities are more expensive then Dublin.

The problem with building up is the existing buildings there is no lease and no way to force people out of their dwellings to knock it down and build up.

Despair all you want you have still not pointed to any salient points to the fact that Dublin prices are going up and will not drop for the foreseeable future. I never said that Dublin prices should be on par with London or Paris and if you look both cities are more expensive.

Once again there is distractions in all of this..the main point is Dublin is no longer a localised market and with the rent yields and low corpo tax on profits there are a lot of properties around dublin been bought up by vulture capitalists. The market is a lot more competitive now than it ever has been

EunanMac

MouseTail wrote: »

How it normally works on here is.... If you disagree with a post, you provide statistics and links to disprove the posters assertions.
eg, to counter Seamus' argument, you would find us the statistics to show that
Emigration is rising
Employment is falling
wages are falling
There is not huge savings

rather than posting a juvenile one liner, which frankly just makes you look silly.

It's Seamus's claim, the burden of proof rests with him, and Dublin is not Ireland
Now have you any proof for the nationwide claim you're endorsing ? Or are you just looking silly now ?

Barely Hedged

jmayo wrote: »

This thing about lack of space in Dublin to build is a bit of an Irish thing and due to fact that we have always considered building out rather than up.
Eventually we are going to have to vary our building habits in cities so that we don't have even worse urban sprawl.
I have seen the same sprawling suburbs in countries like Australia, US, etc where space is not a worry.

It will be interesting to see what parts of Dublin will be regenerated once a certain part of the property market rejects urban sprawl. Id say the Liberties is ripe for it.

jmayo wrote: »

Then again how cheap did they get those properties.
See where they are financing these deals, it aint through local banks.
Look at what their rental yields are in comparison to other markets.

For your example of vulture funds betting on Ireland I counter with how the vulture funds that invested in BOI have sold off some of their holding.
If Ireland was such a great bet would they not have kept their original stake rather than taking some of their profits now ?

The REIT's IPO'd. What does it matter where they got their finance from?

You cant equate the investment time horizon for equities with property.

jmayo wrote: »

I do agree that our property market, and in particular with reference to Dublin, has not followed any known trend and I think most of that is down to the intervention by the state in trying to protect the vested interests at all costs.
Sadly the cost is going to be borne by future generations.

It has followed a known trend. Any of the major economic indicators which capital markets monitor closely have been positive for the past two years and continue to be positive - theres a trend. If an economy is improving surely property prices will increase?

As is obvious, property prices have increased quite considerably (in certain parts of Dublin D1/2/4/6) in the past year with the magnitude of the increase taking everybody by surprise. So if we isolate the past year, what exactly could the government have done in the past 365 days to relieve the situation? Complete the planning, appeals process and building of large numbers of apartments/houses in 365 days? Also, considering there is a 1 month to a quartely lag on statistics that would indicate this to the government, thats 274 days for them to completely solve the issues we are seeing with the property market. Id be highly surprised if any government could pull off such a feat.

seamus

EunanMac wrote: »

It's Seamus's claim, the burden of proof rests with him, and Dublin is not Ireland

Outward Migration is dropping: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2014/#.VA7nAfmwLeA

Wages are going up: https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/4091/321537.PNG"]the black line shows the trend over the last 6 years.)

Employment is on the up: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/qnhs/quarterlynationalhouseholdsurveyquarter22014/#.VA7p0PmwLeA

AlmightyCushion

fliball123 wrote: »

No but your playing down the fact that Dublin is in growth and still a major attraction for comapanies to start up in or to relocate in. My point about the bananas was to the fact that we don't grow bananas yet this merger which would of been huge would of had its head quarters in Dublin...Just proving my point about the attractiveness of doing business here.

It's not that surprising that they would have their headquarters here. Fyffes is an Irish company and is already headquartered here. When merged they would either incorporate as Irish or whatever country Chiquita is incorporated in.

moxin

seamus wrote: »

Employment is on the up: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/qnhs/quarterlynationalhouseholdsurveyquarter22014/#.VA7p0PmwLeA

Employment increased in ten of the fourteen economic sectors over the year (excluding Not stated) and fell in four. The largest rates of increase were recorded in the Administrative and support service activities (+10.7% or 6,200), the Accommodation and food service activities (+6.2% or 8,000) and the Agriculture, forestry and fishing (+6.2% or 6,400) sectors

The latter 2 sectors are not exactly well paid sectors.

Idbatterim

they need to get DU and MN started asap, this will serve the greenfields and allow for higher densities in already developed areas... It would also allow people to live in areas they wouldnt currently consider as it might make getting to them a lot easier.

The waste of space they have and continue to fill the docklands with is a joke, given the shortage of accommodation here...

TrishSimon

These were / are real people they were queing because the houses are fairly big and are at a set price but there is another 1200 units being built in the same development and the prices of them will be a lot higher hence why people were queing, I find it unbelievable myself and I would not give a builder / developer the satisfaction of sitting like that for days sure look at Marfield and Belfry in Tallaght not that people did the same for its a tiny over built estate and everyone wants to move out you don't even have your own car park space only bay parking.

On the mortgage issue if the said person is on 30K they would never be handed a mortgage of 250K, its 3 times your salary even if you do have a deposit of 30K.
I'd love to know what bank they went to, possibly was it with a partner that might explain the 250K mortgage ??

TrishSimon

These were / are real people they were queing because the houses are fairly big and are at a set price but there is another 1200 units being built in the same development and the prices of them will be a lot higher hence why people were queing, I find it unbelievable myself and I would not give a builder / developer the satisfaction of sitting like that for days sure look at Marfield and Belfry in Tallaght where people did the same its a tiny over built estate and everyone wants to move out you don't even have your own car park space only bay parking.

On the mortgage issue if the said person is on 30K they would never be handed a mortgage of 250K, its 3 times your salary even if you do have a deposit of 30K.
I'd love to know what bank they went to, possibly was it with a partner that might explain the 250K mortgage ??

jmayo

fliball123 wrote: »

No but your playing down the fact that Dublin is in growth and still a major attraction for comapanies to start up in or to relocate in. My point about the bananas was to the fact that we don't grow bananas yet this merger which would of been huge would of had its head quarters in Dublin...Just proving my point about the attractiveness of doing business here.

The options would have probably been to site either at Fyffes or Chiquita HQ so it was really either in NC or Dublin.
Now of course they could have HQ sited in Belize or Gauatemala or some such banana growing country.

fliball123 wrote: »

Despair all you want you have still not pointed to any salient points to the fact that Dublin prices are going up and will not drop for the foreseeable future.

Are you sure on that ?
PM me the Lotto numbers please.

Barely Hedged wrote: »

It will be interesting to see what parts of Dublin will be regenerated once a certain part of the property market rejects urban sprawl. Id say the Liberties is ripe for it.

I would say it will be down towards the river and down towards back of point direction where there is already higher rise buildings.

Barely Hedged wrote: »

The REIT's IPO'd. What does it matter where they got their finance from?

I guess you are talking about certain enterprises here as regards IPOs.
BTW my reference to external lending or funding is that they are not having to fund from local sources who could be much more costly and less susceptible to lending after the hammering they took in last 7 years.
On the other hand the poor local smucks buying a home can't access funding from foreign sources.

Barely Hedged wrote: »

You cant equate the investment time horizon for equities with property.

Yes I know but the point I was trying to make is that if Ireland is this great long term bet and the property maket is on the up, then why pull out some of your investment from one of the only semi solvent banks in the market.

Barely Hedged wrote: »

It has followed a known trend. Any of the major economic indicators which capital markets monitor closely have been positive for the past two years and continue to be positive - theres a trend. If an economy is improving surely property prices will increase?

All of that omits the fact that we have huge level of personal and SME debt tied to property.
We have had not any meaningful resolution of most of the defaulting property related debt.
Foreign investors have come here in search of "bargains" and good rental yeilds.
Once prices start rising or yields drop then they will fresh locations for investment.

The other thing you aren't mentioning is the fact that property currently provides a much better return than having money sitting in a bank for Irish people with cash.
Interest rates are at an all time low.
And there could be fear that should another shock hit the banks then a Cyprus solution will come into play.
Then add in exemption on capital gains tax on property and you get people pushed towards property investment.

BTW you asked what government could have done - see last line above.
In fact they extended this scheme another year in 2014.