CSO August 2014

kennyb3

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexaugust2014/

Residential Property Prices rise by 14.9% in the year to August

In the year to August, residential property prices at a national level, increased by 14.9%. This compares with an increase of 13.4% in July and an increase of 2.8% recorded in the twelve months to August 2013. See Table 1.

Residential property prices rose by 2.3% in the month of August. This compares with an increase of 2.0% recorded in July and an increase of 0.9% recorded in August of last year. See Table 1.

In Dublin residential property prices grew by 3.5% in August and were 25.1% higher than a year ago. Dublin house prices rose by 3.5% in the month and were 24.7% higher compared to a year earlier. Dublin apartment prices were 32.6% higher when compared with the same month of 2013. See Tables 6, 7 and 8. However, it should be noted that the sub-indices for apartments are based on low volumes of observed transactions and consequently suffer from greater volatility than other series.

The price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland (i.e. excluding Dublin) rose by 0.8% in August compared with an increase of 0.1% in August of last year. Prices were 5.6% higher than in August 2013. See Table 4.

Overall Decline

House prices in Dublin are 39.2% lower than at their highest level in early 2007. Apartments in Dublin are 45.8% lower than they were in February 2007. Residential property prices in Dublin are 41.0% lower than at their highest level in February 2007. The price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland is 44.6% lower than their highest level in September 2007. Overall, the national index is 41.0% lower than its highest level in 2007. See Tables 7, 8, 6, 4 and 1.

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lima

Would August be one of the busiest months of the year?

The apartment thing is strange, I haven't seen many apartments go for 30% more than last year, except for the city centre ones beside Google & Facebook. Perhaps 10-15% more max. Maybe these are bringing the average up. I've been looking at 2br apts for the last two years and they've only gone up about 20-30k really.

gaius c

Thank goodness it's not a bubble.

MouseTail

lima wrote: »

Would August be one of the busiest months of the year?

No, traditionally August would be quiet for sales, people on holidays etc.

padd b1975

Great news for those of us in negative equity as the gap narrows a little more.

dubrov

padd b1975 wrote: »

Great news for those of us in negative equity as the gap narrows a little more.

Not really unless you are looking to trade down or leave the country.

Mortgage payments will not change and if you are looking to trade up you will pay much more now

seamus

lima wrote: »

Would August be one of the busiest months of the year?

The apartment thing is strange, I haven't seen many apartments go for 30% more than last year, except for the city centre ones beside Google & Facebook. Perhaps 10-15% more max. Maybe these are bringing the average up. I've been looking at 2br apts for the last two years and they've only gone up about 20-30k really.

Apartment increases will drag behind house increases. Most peoples' first preference is to buy or live in a house.
As house prices go up, people get driven out of the market into renting apartments or as we saw from the previous bubble, people start looking at buying apartments to live in for the medium-term while in the hope that it will build in equity and their salaries will grow, allowing them to trade up.

Apartments in city centres are more desirable than those outside, so you're right in that the average price is probably pulled upwards massively by 2 beds going for €400k+ in the city centre.

lima

padd b1975 wrote: »

Great news for those of us in negative equity as the gap narrows a little more.

Probably mentally it is but I'm sure the last few years have been traumatic and stressful for people in NE.

It's been great fun for me over the last few years watching people who bought property during the boom blame the banks for their own bad financial mistakes (If I bought I would have lost hundreds of grand, now I have 6 figure savings even with renting all these years!). It's pretty certain now that prices will be manipulated upwards for the forseeable future so now it's finally time for me to jump into property ownership

You don't hear these NE people complain about 'de bankss' contributing to the vested interest manipulation of the property market :rolleyes:

ted1

lima wrote: »

t's pretty certain now that prices will be manipulated upwards for the forseeable future so now it's finally time for me to jump into property ownership :es:

Your a few years to late. The last 3 years would have been much better and you have paid out 50k+ in rent.

lima

ted1 wrote: »

Your a few years to late. The last 3 years would have been much better and you have paid out 50k+ in rent.

That's true (except I paid probably 18k in rent in 3 years - similar to mortgage interest I guess, and saved the rest), it was not certain which way the market would go so I decided that I'd rather wait and forgo price rises than be stuck with NE as it traps you. It was my risk mitigation strategy. I'm emigrating in a couple of years time to my other half's country so even if I go in late I will come out on top (and hopefully my new countries boom will have ended!)

padd b1975

dubrov wrote: »

Not really unless you are looking to trade down or leave the country.

Mortgage payments will not change and if you are looking to trade up you will pay much more now

Not looking to do anything at the moment, but obviously if my circumstances took a drastic turn for the worse and I have to sell, the prospect of being able to make a clean break from my present property is coming into view.

There's a certain amount of piece of mind in that.

ted1

lima wrote: »

That's true (except I paid probably 18k in rent in 3 years - similar to mortgage interest I guess, and saved the rest), it was not certain which way the market would go so I decided that I'd rather wait and forgo price rises than be stuck with NE as it traps you. It was my risk mitigation strategy. I'm emigrating in a couple of years time to my other half's country so even if I go in late I will come out on top (and hopefully my new countries boom will have ended!)

500 a month?

lima

ted1 wrote: »

500 a month?

Average, approximately yes. I have been in a reasonably unique situation though. As well as house sharing in London I have been contracting and was able to claim accommodation as expenses.

As an aside, I think anyone renting a place by themselves should buy now if they can as it's costing 1000-1300per month for an apartment in Dublin.

Villa05

Capitulation!! Best of luck lima

i would normally call a moment like lima given in and buying as a bubble top forming but i think lima is too smart to make that call

The_Conductor

Villa05 wrote: »

Capitulation!! Best of luck lima

i would normally call a moment like lima given in and buying as a bubble top forming but i think lima is too smart to make that call

I don't know.
I'm actually at the stage where I'd stick my neck out and suggest that Dublin has peaked, but that the rest of the country will play catch up for about 9-10 months, before areas outside the Pale, Cork and Galway, call a halt to proceedings.........

Supply factor is one factor- affordability- is another. Quite simply- housing is no longer considered to be affordable- full stop. It doesn't matter whether you intend to buy- or rent- prices have increased too far, too fast- and are no longer affordable. The only thing stopping the bubble from popping- is the incredible lack of supply, and the continued illiquidity in the market (though even Daft is reporting rapidly increasing numbers of dwellings with falling price tags.........)

If you can sell sometime in the immediate future- do it. If you can get out of here- even better.

gaius c

kennyb3 wrote: »

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexaugust2014/

Residential Property Prices rise by 14.9% in the year to August

In the year to August, residential property prices at a national level, increased by 14.9%. This compares with an increase of 13.4% in July and an increase of 2.8% recorded in the twelve months to August 2013. See Table 1.

Residential property prices rose by 2.3% in the month of August. This compares with an increase of 2.0% recorded in July and an increase of 0.9% recorded in August of last year. See Table 1.

In Dublin residential property prices grew by 3.5% in August and were 25.1% higher than a year ago. Dublin house prices rose by 3.5% in the month and were 24.7% higher compared to a year earlier. Dublin apartment prices were 32.6% higher when compared with the same month of 2013. See Tables 6, 7 and 8. However, it should be noted that the sub-indices for apartments are based on low volumes of observed transactions and consequently suffer from greater volatility than other series.

The price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland (i.e. excluding Dublin) rose by 0.8% in August compared with an increase of 0.1% in August of last year. Prices were 5.6% higher than in August 2013. See Table 4.

Overall Decline

House prices in Dublin are 39.2% lower than at their highest level in early 2007. Apartments in Dublin are 45.8% lower than they were in February 2007. Residential property prices in Dublin are 41.0% lower than at their highest level in February 2007. The price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland is 44.6% lower than their highest level in September 2007. Overall, the national index is 41.0% lower than its highest level in 2007. See Tables 7, 8, 6, 4 and 1.

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It's noticeable just how little fanfair this update is getting. I wonder are the government spooked about the call they got from major MNC's saying that they will not countenance wage increases for their employees to afford spiraling accommodation costs.

They "need" prices to increase to bail out the banks by the back door but they also need the MNC's to keep paying good wages...

NGC999888

lima wrote: »

Probably mentally it is but I'm sure the last few years have been traumatic and stressful for people in NE.

It's been great fun for me over the last few years watching people who bought property during the boom blame the banks for their own bad financial mistakes (If I bought I would have lost hundreds of grand, now I have 6 figure savings even with renting all these years!). It's pretty certain now that prices will be manipulated upwards for the forseeable future so now it's finally time for me to jump into property ownership

You don't hear these NE people complain about 'de bankss' contributing to the vested interest manipulation of the property market :rolleyes:

lima wrote: »

That's true (except I paid probably 18k in rent in 3 years - similar to mortgage interest I guess, and saved the rest), it was not certain which way the market would go so I decided that I'd rather wait and forgo price rises than be stuck with NE as it traps you. It was my risk mitigation strategy. I'm emigrating in a couple of years time to my other half's country so even if I go in late I will come out on top (and hopefully my new countries boom will have ended!)

I dont get this.
If you are emigrating in a couple of years, why on earth would you want to buy property here, especially after sitting out the market for so long?

lima

NGC999888 wrote: »

I dont get this.
If you are emigrating in a couple of years, why on earth would you want to buy property here, especially after sitting out the market for so long?

For financial security. Your home will never be taken away from you no matter what.

murphaph

lima wrote: »

For financial security. Your home will never be taken away from you no matter what.

It won't be your home though so why buy an illiquid asset in a fairly unstable economy that is likely to slavishly follow the typical Anglo Saxon boom bust cycle for the foreseeable future? If you really want property then why not buy it somewhere else in the world?

NGC999888

murphaph wrote: »

It won't be your home though so why buy an illiquid asset in a fairly unstable economy that is likely to slavishly follow the typical Anglo Saxon boom bust cycle for the foreseeable future? If you really want property then why not buy it somewhere else in the world?

Just because someones home isnt taken away from them doesnt mean that they are all happy and safe. Most of those people who should have their homes repossessed are up the creek without a paddle, repo or not.
But you already said you would have lost hundreds of thousands had you bought before. Do you think that situation couldnt happen again?

Sounds to me no that you just want to buy property now for the sake of it. I bet a few years ago you would have never considered an apartment. Now you probably are considering one too.

I think you are looking at this all wrong.

Take a step back and think about it logically. You will be all the better for it.

Its just madness to buy property when you are leaving in a couple of years. Unless you think you can make money from it as an investment and it will never turn down again?

lima

NGC999888 wrote: »

Just because someones home isnt taken away from them doesnt mean that they are all happy and safe. Most of those people who should have their homes repossessed are up the creek without a paddle, repo or not.
But you already said you would have lost hundreds of thousands had you bought before. Do you think that situation couldnt happen again?

Sounds to me no that you just want to buy property now for the sake of it. I bet a few years ago you would have never considered an apartment. Now you probably are considering one too.

I think you are looking at this all wrong.

Take a step back and think about it logically. You will be all the better for it.

Its just madness to buy property when you are leaving in a couple of years. Unless you think you can make money from it as an investment and it will never turn down again?

Bit of sarcasm there about the non-mortgage paying generation as I am angry that they are getting away with not paying their mortgages for years and they tend to blame others for their bad mistakes, causing rent and property to go up unnecessarily.

Everyone has their own financial situation that makes sense to them. My particular one makes sense to me.

I am confident that the powers that be will ensure another ride to the top price-wise. Look at the UK, London and South in particular. Nothing's being done about the bubble there. Where I'm moving to is one of the most overpriced places in the world right now, it makes sense to buy in cheap, manipulated Ireland and wait a couple years until the bubble pops in the other country.

gaius c

It's not all about you lima!

lima

gaius c wrote: »

It's not all about you lima!

Just adding another data point to the convo in general

gaius c

"Me me me me" is not a data point. It's boring & tedious after a while.

Meanwhile, a good article pointing out what we suspected already.
Affordability now is actually worse than 2007 but thank goodness we're not in a bubble.

lima

gaius c wrote: »

"Me me me me" is not a data point. It's boring & tedious after a while.

Meanwhile, a good article pointing out what we suspected already.
Affordability now is actually worse than 2007 but thank goodness we're not in a bubble.

My personal situation is a data point.

What's boring and tedious is hearing people blame 'de banks' for their money troubles.