October 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, 1981-2010 mean was 10.2 C

2. Predict the MAX temp at any met.ie station

3. Predict the MIN temp at any met.ie station

4. Predict the average PRC (rainfall) at eleven selected stations.

5. Predict the average SUN (sunshine) at six selected stations.

6. Bonus question in two parts:

6-1 _ Predict the maximum wind gust at any met.ie station in knots.
6-2 _ Predict the date in October that the above will take place.

Enter using this form:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

Deadline is 0300h Thursday 2 October, after which 5 point penalties apply for every half-day late. Good luck.

pauldry

done as will otherwise forget

a mild wet windy month

Bsal

Done, I hope I do better than September

lostinashford

Done

John mac

Done..

DOCARCH

Done

dacogawa

Done

dasa29

Done

Rikand

Done

Jpmarn

Done

kindredspirit

Done. ( but with no confidence.)

Tae laidir

Done

Harps

Done

Edit: I stupidly misread the bonus question as km/hr rather than knots, I'll take 52kts which is 97kh/hr converted

mickger844posts

done

delw

done

omicron

Done.

okla

Done

rameire

google docs is not working for me so here goes.

10.6 ..... 19.7 ..... -2.0 ..... 110% ..... 90% ..... 60knots 18th oct

Fr_Dougal

Been crazy busy in work, done.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for October 2014

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ kts _ date

pauldry______________12.1 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 134 _ 092 ___ 62 __ 6
sunflower3 ___________11.2 _ 19.5 _ -2.5 _ 136 _ 089 ___ 50 __26
M.T. Cranium _________11.0 _ 20.2 _ -4.4 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 55 __29
Jpmarn ______________10.9 _ 19.5 _ -0.5 _ 180 _ 090 ___ 59 __ 6
mickger844posts ______10.8 _ 20.2 _ -1.3 _ 138 _ 090 ___ 54 __21
Bsal ________________10.8 _ 20.1 _ -1.5 _ 107 _ 095 ___ 45 __23
TheZohan ___________ 10.8 _ 18.0 _ -2.0 _ 105 _ 085 ___ 61 __ 9
waterways ___________10.7 _ 20.3 _ -3.2 _ 150 _ 091 ___ 48 __ 8
kindredspirit _________ 10.7 _ 19.5 _ -2.5 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 65 __24
DOCARCH ___________ 10.6 _ 21.1 _ -2.3 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 68 __23
rameire ______ (-10) __10.6 _ 19.7 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 60 __18
johnmac ____________ 10.5 _ 22.0 _ -1.4 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 43 __24

Con Sensus __________ 10.5 _ 19.8 _ -2.0 _ 124 _ 090 ___ 57 __19

rikand ______________ 10.5 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 60 __ 7
omicron ______ (-5) __ 10.5 _ 18.0 _ -2.0 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 50 __ 6
dacogawa ___________ 10.4 _ 19.9 _ -1.4 _ 140 _ 082 ___ 58 __ 8
200motels ___________10.4 _ 19.6 _ -1.0 _ 149 _ 078 ___ 40 __19
okla _________ (-5) ___10.4 _ 18.6 _ -2.3 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 47 __25
Tae laidir ____________10.3 _ 18.4 _ -4.0 _ 123 _ 100 ___ 47 __ 3
jd __________ (-10) __ 10.2 _ 20.1 _ -1.8 _ 103 _ 097 ___ 86 __28
dasa29 _____________ 10.0 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 50 __19
Harps _______________ 9.9 _ 20.6 _ -2.3 _ 135 _ 085 ___ 52*__27
Joe Public ____ (-5) ____9.9 _ 18.9 _ -3.9 _ 129 _ 089 ___ 79 __11
lostinashford __________9.8 _ 18.8 _ -2.3 _ 125 _ 089 ___ 49 __ 3
delw ________________ 9.3 _ 16.0 _ 3.0 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 60 __ 8

_____________________________________

Will edit in any later entries. ... any decimal entries for max wind gust have been rounded off.

Tae laidir

Belmullet Gust 46 at 23:00 already!

Newport Gust 51 at 01:00!

Jpmarn

Mullingar has reported a low of -04 yesterday.

Tae laidir

Jpmarn wrote: »

Mullingar has reported a low of -04 yesterday.

That's -0.4.
And Mace Head reported a low of 13.3!

M.T. Cranium

minor correction, saw a gust to 52 kts at Newport early morning hours. Imagine there will be stronger gusts early next week however.

Rikand

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

minor correction, saw a gust to 52 kts at Newport early morning hours. Imagine there will be stronger gusts early next week however.

and let the storm early next week be the last of the storms for this october!

M.T. Cranium

I'll score this the same way as that heavy rainfall and date bonus in the summer, people with the dates of 2nd and 3rd strongest wind gusts will do okay with the dates even if the winning date is far away in time. And there will be the usual 2 point super-bonus if you manage max points on both, 1 point if you manage 4,5 or 5,4 on the two elements.

M.T. Cranium

63 knots at Roches Point on Sunday evening. I don't think this was topped after midnight anywhere, so if that were to hold up, the people who predicted 6th would get 4 points for that date and pauldry, who was closest at 62 knots, would share 5 pts for gust speed with several others in the range 60-66, and he would get one super-bonus point for a total of ten. Rikand and Jpmarn would have eight points if this event were to hold up.

If the gust on the 5th is topped later in the month (only once) then the date scores would drop by one in favour of that new date, and presumably the gust speed scores would also change. If it's topped twice then date scores will drop by two, etc.

At the moment, the second highest gust date is likely to be today (early) and then the third at 52 knots is the first which would not factor into scoring if these three end up being the top three. That's going to leave a lot of people out of the hunt if the fourth and fifth highest gust dates occur later, because they would be scattering only 2 and then 1 points over a few days. And since most of the people later in the month are looking for either a higher gust speed or holding onto a few points they already have, they would not get those extra points. So the bonus is going to be mostly low scores if this event holds up. Con Sensus might have 3 to 5 points depending on what happens later, if there's no big windstorm on the 19th or close.

Would have to think that the precip is well on its way to 50% "in the tank" already. The IMT as of today stands at 10.9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Forgot to check yesterday, so here are some numbers after eight days instead ...

IMT at 10.4 C

PRC around 220% of normal (translates to 55% of normal end of month if no more rain fell, requires just 60% now to end of month to hit the monthly normal).

SUN is also ahead of schedule, oddly enough, at 120% (must have been as high as 160% before the recent storm moved in).

I somehow doubt that we have seen either the MAX or the MIN yet.

pauldry

jeez its a lot colder than i thought

i think second half of month will be milder

itd need to be very mild to help me though oops:pac:

Rikand

SUN bound to have done well for itself over the weekend and start of the week ?

M.T. Cranium

Rikand wrote: »

SUN bound to have done well for itself over the weekend and start of the week ?

Yes, I will update tomorrow from 9th to 15th "week" since I started off the process a day late with an eight-day week. But you're right, I checked the data, the current seven-day readings are at 150% and that's for 8-14 but on the 8th it was cloudy similar to today so the readings won't likely change when I check them tomorrow -- and they bring the monthly total up to around 135% but with somewhat of a cloudier trend ahead, I think (some breaks could keep things close to 100% as this is not a very high-sunshine time of the year now). The IMT will no doubt come up quickly from around 10 to closer to 11 or even 11.5 at some point then whether it can sustain that to end of month or maybe drop back to around 11 -- depends on Gonzalo's antics to some extent.

Looks to me like remnants of Gonzalo could be zipping past Connacht on Tuesday. That being the 21st, may help a few of us with our wind max dates if not with the actual peak gust (current maps look more like 50-55 kt gusts that could at least make it to second place this weekend and mid-week).