2016 US Presidential Race - Mod Warning in OP

Manach

First Up wrote: »

So is your solution a return to a white, Euro-centric homogeneous US a la the 1950's?

If so, be prepared for dissapointment.

Ah the typical usual leftist gift of spinning waffle tangenterals instead of engaging, disappointment will consisting seeing such rhetoric flourishes falling when it meets reality.

First Up

Manach wrote:

Ah the typical usual leftist gift of spinning waffle tangenterals instead of engaging, disappointment will consisting seeing such rhetoric flourishes falling when it meets reality.

Eh?

oscarBravo

Manach wrote: »

The Democratic party seems to be relying on a continuous spiral of subdividing the US population, into smaller and smaller tribes to be wooed/conjoled with state benificence.

Really? Do you have concrete examples of this strategy?

KingBrian2

20Cent wrote: »

One of the reasons Romney lost was his lack of popularity with females and latinos. Trump seems to have learnt nothing from that.

Whether you like it or not the GOP have a message of National coherence. The best the Dems can do is point to the closing of Guantanamo Bay. DC has been in the arms of the Republicans so should they get the Presidency they can undone much of what President Obama has done.

First Up

KingBrian2 wrote:

Whether you like it or not the GOP have a message of National coherence.

Only if you are white and middle aged - or a Cuban emigre.

Its a vision of national coherence long overtaken by demographics.

KingBrian2

First Up wrote: »

Only if you are white and middle aged - or a Cuban emigre.

Its a vision of national coherence long overtaken by demographics.

To the Republicans the Dems are the party of the illegal immigrant and should be barred from voting. How much of Mexico is in the Democratic party? America is a vibrant economy when compared to the state of affairs in Mexico. Most Americans have incomes considerably higher than the average Mexican which itself is experiencing illegal migration from Central America. Trump is honest when he speaks of the dangers of the borderlands of America.

eire4

walshyn93 wrote: »

The fact checkers have long since discredited themselves. Why does Hillary Clinton have 20 true statements and Donald Trump only 1. Do you really believe Donald Trump has only said one true thing? Did all Hillarys true statements really need to be berified or is it just padding? Some of the ratings they give are bizarre and inconsistent. Like how did Hillary not get a 'pants on fire' rating for her going on a solo run about Trump being in ISIS recruiting videos? Where's the fact checker denying the claim that he went bankrupt 3 times? Some of the things he's said have been really salient, like about how Russia benefited from the Iran deal by selling arms to Iran thanks to the 150bn given to Iran. No fact checker verifies or debunks that one. They just don't want to give Trump any credit. Partisan hacks.

Furthermore. Donald Trump cites a statistic that is found in 2 different polls. Once in pew research and another in a right wing think tank survey. Politifact ignores the pew poll which says much the same thing and calls the think tank 'discredited'. But if they want to attack the poll attack the poll. Don't attack Trump for backing up his points with evidence. Instead of debunking the poll they call Trump a liar. Something they would never do to a democrat.

Ahh so fact check is discredited according to you. While different details can be argued about various things fact checked or not fact checked in general they seem pretty impartial to me. Sounds more like you don't like the fact that they gave Trump the lier award for 2015. Arguable whether he was the worst lier in the 2016 Republican and Democrat fields for president but given the regular lies he tells not hard to see how he got the nod from them.

Overheal

KingBrian2 wrote: »

To the Republicans the Dems are the party of the illegal immigrant and should be barred from voting. How much of Mexico is in the Democratic party? America is a vibrant economy when compared to the state of affairs in Mexico. Most Americans have incomes considerably higher than the average Mexican which itself is experiencing illegal migration from Central America. Trump is honest when he speaks of the dangers of the borderlands of America.

Well then the Republicans are delusional because you're implying mass voter fraud.

We've found more evidence of dead people voting in our electoral history, than foreign nationals.

He has not gone near social conservatism and sticks to the economic and foreign policy dimension that puts him front and centre

Eh? His anti-muslim, anti-mexican, woman-fearing, he's the godfather of the Birther movement and flip flopped to a pro life stance a few years ago in preparation for a conservative run and he's attacked the faiths of other candidates.

Black Swan

Two most recent Fox News polls for Iowa shows Cruz ahead of Trump:

Taken | Cruz | Trump
4-7 Jan 2016 | 27 | 23
7-10 Dec 2015 | 28 | 26

The shift from Trump to Cruz for the Iowa CBS News polls may be of interest:

Taken | Cruz | Trump
14-17 Dec 2015 | 40 | 31
15-19 Nov 2015 | 21 | 30

This lead by Cruz may suggest why Trump has been questioning Cruz's birth in Canada recently, attempting to disqualify him for the GOP 2016 presidential nomination?

First Up

KingBrian2 wrote: »

To the Republicans the Dems are the party of the illegal immigrant and should be barred from voting. How much of Mexico is in the Democratic party? America is a vibrant economy when compared to the state of affairs in Mexico. Most Americans have incomes considerably higher than the average Mexican which itself is experiencing illegal migration from Central America. Trump is honest when he speaks of the dangers of the borderlands of America.

Who should be banned from voting? Illegal immigrants enter the US from lots of other places too - one in particular comes to mind.

Mexicans were living in California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas (as well as several other States) long before white European immigrants.

The US-Mexico border sees a lot of traffic (First World/Third World frontiers tend to) but Mexico is a very handy source of cheap labour for US companies who set up in Mexico under the Border Industrialization Programme - or "Maquiladoras" which has been in operation for about 50 years. Before that, Mexican labour was allowed into the US - mostly California - on a seasonal basis. It is a complex relationship with many strands to it.

As usual, Trump is talking simplistic nonsense, drawing from the deep well of ignorance he shares with many of his supporters.

walshyn93

oscarBravo wrote: »

Really? Do you have concrete examples of this strategy?

Talking about how to woo the black vote with welfare while simultaneously flooding the country with cheap labour so they can't compete for jobs. Flooding the country with illegal immigrants whose children will vote democrat. Giving a pathway to citizenship for people who will vote democrat. Its been a consistent theme from the Democrats. Creating a War on Women. Like ffs it couldn't be more obvious.

walshyn93

eire4 wrote: »

Ahh so fact check is discredited according to you. While different details can be argued about various things fact checked or not fact checked in general they seem pretty impartial to me. Sounds more like you don't like the fact that they gave Trump the lier award for 2015. Arguable whether he was the worst lier in the 2016 Republican and Democrat fields for president but given the regular lies he tells not hard to see how he got the nod from them.

The fact that they single someone out for lie of the year shows they're not impartial. An impartial fact checking organisation checks facts, it doesn't decide subjectively which lies are bigger than others.

And of course people who are on the same side of the political spectrum don't notice when the bias is in their favour.

walshyn93

20Cent wrote: »

One of the reasons Romney lost was his lack of popularity with females and latinos. Trump seems to have learnt nothing from that.

Yeah because there's nothing latinos love more than an open border meaning more and more competition for the same type of jobs. More competition for housing in the same neighbourhoods. The only thing Latino voters (who are all Mexican of course) care about is that there is open door immigration.

Latinos know better than anyone who is coming across the border. Mexico is at full employment. The only people coming across the border now are those who can't get jobs i.e. the undesireables i.e. criminals.

20Cent

walshyn93 wrote: »

Yeah because there's nothing latinos love more than an open border meaning more and more competition for the same type of jobs. More competition for housing in the same neighbourhoods. The only thing Latino voters (who are all Mexican of course) care about is that there is open door immigration.

Latinos know better than anyone who is coming across the border. Mexico is at full employment. The only people coming across the border now are those who can't get jobs i.e. the undesireables i.e. criminals.

Sometimes ya wonder who is believing all this crap Trump is spouting. Then you see posts like the above.

Cruz seems to be the front runner now. Comedy candidate will be out soon.

walshyn93

Thargor wrote: »

I dont understand the shilling comment, I dont understand the tweet, I dont understand the screensot of Google News

New evidence on Hillary. Hillary attacks Sanders on guns to misdirect. Sanders laps it up and throws it right back. Gun fight ensues.

No one talking about emails. A politician that actually wanted to win would ignore the gun comment and remind the people that their frontrunner will likely be indicted before the election.

walshyn93

First Up wrote: »

Depends on the electorate. He appeals to the Republican hard core which nowadays represents about 20% of the national population. The more inspires that element, the more he alienates everyone else.
.

Where did you get this 20% figure?

Head to head with Clinton he's only off by 2 according to RCP average and the race with Clinton hasn't even begun. He hasn't had a chance to do to her what he did to Jeb.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

walshyn93

20Cent wrote: »

Sometimes ya wonder who is believing all this crap Trump is spouting. Then you see posts like the above.

Cruz seems to be the front runner now. Comedy candidate will be out soon.

In one state. Iowa, which is decided by evangelicals, of which Cruz is one.

Brian?

20Cent wrote: »

Sometimes ya wonder who is believing all this crap Trump is spouting. Then you see posts like the above.

Cruz seems to be the front runner now. Comedy candidate will be out soon.

Ah now, Ted Cruz is a deep well of comedy himself.

http://www.politifact.com/personalities/ted-cruz/statements/

http://www.thenation.com/article/ted-cruzs-trouble-truth-his-biggest-liability/

Brian?

walshyn93 wrote: »

Yeah because there's nothing latinos love more than an open border meaning more and more competition for the same type of jobs. More competition for housing in the same neighbourhoods. The only thing Latino voters (who are all Mexican of course) care about is that there is open door immigration.

Latinos know better than anyone who is coming across the border. Mexico is at full employment. The only people coming across the border now are those who can't get jobs i.e. the undesireables i.e. criminals.

Mexico's unemployment rate is just shy of 5%, so that's factually incorrect. So you're objectively wrong. Subjectively, you're also wrong IMO. In my time in Arizona I met plenty of recent Mexican immigrants who moved to work in search of a better life.

Edit: The employment rate in the US is 5.5%, are we saying great job Obama the US is at full employment?

Black Swan

walshyn93 wrote: »

Head to head with Clinton he's only off by 2 according to RCP average and the race with Clinton hasn't even begun.

I would be very cautious about quoting the RCP average. There are serious problems averaging the results of several very different polling organisations that have different methodologies, samples, sizes, time frames, data collection techniques, confidence levels, confidence intervals, etc.

walshyn93

Brian? wrote: »

Mexico's unemployment rate is just shy of 5%, so that's factually incorrect. So you're objectively wrong. Subjectively, you're also wrong IMO. In my time in Arizona I met plenty of recent Mexican immigrants who moved to work in search of a better life.

Edit: The employment rate in the US is 5.5%, are we saying great job Obama the US is at full employment?

It may not be at full employment but its very close. The thrust of my argument therefore is solid, that there are plenty of jobs in Mexico for employable people.

walshyn93

Black Swan wrote: »

I would be very cautious about quoting the RCP average. There are serious problems averaging the results of several very different polling organisations that have different methodologies, samples, sizes, time frames, data collection techniques, confidence levels, confidence intervals, etc.

Well if you want to go down that road polls aren't worth much because presidents have won without the popular vote. Point is, it's not just the lunatic fringe who support Trump. Plenty of people see through his sales pitch and like him because he's about enforcing the law and people see him as someone who is on their side. I have to say as an Irish person the fact that so many people here who don't like America or anything about it LOVE Obama would make me vote the other way.

walshyn93

Brian? wrote: »

Ah now, Ted Cruz is a deep well of comedy himself.

http://www.politifact.com/personalities/ted-cruz/statements/

http://www.thenation.com/article/ted-cruzs-trouble-truth-his-biggest-liability/

Politifact doesn't understand hyperbole.

Cruz said that every year, Iran has a holiday like Thanksgiving, Christmas and the 4th of July called Death to America Day.

What Cruz actually said: "Here, we have Thanksgiving, we have Christmas, we have the 4th of July. Every year in Iran, they celebrate Death to America day."

So here we have a fact checking organisation twisting someone's words to make their statement false. He was never equating them. He was juxtaposing them. Difference.

Here's their explanation:

Every year, demonstrations in Tehran mark the Nov. 4 anniversary of students taking over the U.S. embassy in 1979 and taking hostages. But that date doesn’t appear to be akin to the special American days Cruz singled out. In fact, it’s not a holiday on the calendar at all nor is it formally designated Death to America Day.

Their verdict?



Yeah, I'm going to continue to take the fact checkers with a grain of salt. He never said there was a formally designated holiday, just that they celebrate it. And if the Iranian government didn't condone these protests they surely wouldn't allow them.

Nodin

Brian? wrote: »

Mexico's unemployment rate is just shy of 5%, so that's factually incorrect. So you're objectively wrong. Subjectively, you're also wrong IMO. In my time in Arizona I met plenty of recent Mexican immigrants who moved to work in search of a better life.

Edit: The employment rate in the US is 5.5%, are we saying great job Obama the US is at full employment?

It also has to be said that, much like in Ireland African seems to be taken as meaning Nigerian, in some quarters Latin American is taken as being "Mexican". There are a few million from other states south of the border as well.

Black Swan

walshyn93 wrote: »

Well if you want to go down that road polls aren't worth much because presidents have won without the popular vote.

Polls and election votes are conceptually and methodologically very different types of data collections. As for presidents winning the popular vote, but losing the election, in GE 2000 Al Gore had 50,999,897 popular votes, but was defeated by GW Bush who had fewer popular votes (50,456,002); i.e., one person, one vote does not exist in USA for presidential elections.

walshyn93

Black Swan wrote: »

Polls and election votes are conceptually and methodologically very different types of data collections. As for presidents winning the popular vote, but losing the election, in GE 2000 Al Gore had 50,999,897 popular votes, but was defeated by GW Bush who had fewer popular votes (50,456,002); i.e., one person, one vote does not exist in USA for presidential elections.

Yeah, and? It's a fool who argues a man's point back to him.

K-9

walshyn93 wrote: »

The fact that they single someone out for lie of the year shows they're not impartial. An impartial fact checking organisation checks facts, it doesn't decide subjectively which lies are bigger than others.

And of course people who are on the same side of the political spectrum don't notice when the bias is in their favour.

I suppose there is a difference between something that was debunked or a topic that is contentious, the college sexual assault figures you highlighted a good example. As was shown by the link there is evidence to back the figures up but many dispute the figures.

oscarBravo

walshyn93 wrote: »

Talking about how to woo the black vote with welfare while simultaneously flooding the country with cheap labour so they can't compete for jobs. Flooding the country with illegal immigrants whose children will vote democrat. Giving a pathway to citizenship for people who will vote democrat. Its been a consistent theme from the Democrats. Creating a War on Women. Like ffs it couldn't be more obvious.

Thanks for that, but I was looking for Democratic candidates' policy positions, not Fox News talking points.

walshyn93 wrote: »

What Cruz actually said: "Here, we have Thanksgiving, we have Christmas, we have the 4th of July. Every year in Iran, they celebrate Death to America day."

[...]

He never said there was a formally designated holiday, just that they celebrate it.

The mental gymnastics are fun to watch, if nothing else.

walshyn93

oscarBravo wrote: »

Thanks for that, but I was looking for Democratic candidates' policy positions, not Fox News talking points.

The mental gymnastics are fun to watch, if nothing else.

I gave you some policy positions, but it's more to do with rhetoric than policy since in 8 years they haven't improved the lives of any group be they blacks, women or hispanics. They've done a lot of talking about it though. It's the rhetoric rather than the policy that is used to divide people into bloc votes. If these groups ever achieved parity with white Christian men they would become independent voters. That would kill the Democratic party since independents can be swayed by Trump-like populism which the Republicans would no doubt become adept at if it were politically beneficial.

Taking a non-literal interpretation of a true statement and using it to brand a person a liar isn't mental gymnastics? You have to say that Cruz said something other than what he said for it to be untrue.

Manach

oscarBravo wrote: »

Thanks for that, but I was looking for Democratic candidates' policy positions, not Fox News talking points.

... so likewise any post's opinion hostile to the Republicans can be dismissed as DNC smoke and mirrors? Thanks for the precedent.