2016 US Presidential Race - Mod Warning in OP

Fr Tod Umptious

MightyMandarin wrote: »

I understand it perfectly, and Bernie is regarded and self-proclaimed as a socialist despite being more of a social democrat.

My point was, his ideas aren't radical and as evidenced by the polls, Americans might actually be venturing further away from their centre and the establishment.

I think you're grossly underestimating the polls and their value.

People only like polls that tell them what they want to hear.

Bernie is showing well in what is essentially a two horse race against a less than popular woman that has been on the scene for decades.
In relative terms Bernie is a breath of fresh air.

But its soft support, a bit like support for SF in this country, or for example Sean Gallagher or David Norris is Irish elections.
People say they will vote for them but in the day rarely do.

Bernie in a GE would be akin to Regan v Mondale or Nixon v Humphrey (I think), with only MA voting for him no doubt.

First Up

MightyMandarin wrote:

I think you're grossly underestimating the polls and their value.

I'm familiar enough with US politics and media to be able to estimate the value of polls pretty accurately.

Clinton will win the nomination. January and February might be lively in a few spots which is no harm as it will keep her in the news. But she will have it wrapped by Super Tuesday or soon after. Sanders will pledge his support and the united Dems will then set about Trump and what's left of the GOP.

my friend

Brian? wrote: »

I had some very strange experiences in this regard while living in the US:

Me: Oh, I finished college with zero debt. I went to an IT and paid almost nothing in fees. University is still cheap. My masters program is 2700 a year. My wife had 6 months paid off work after our first son was born . I get paid sick leave, the government covers it of it goes over 3 consecutive days.
American friend: I wish it was like that here. It sounds brilliant.
Me: you'd have to pay more taxes
American friend: **** that. I ain't paying for other people
Me: but I thought you liked the sound of a social democracy
AF: yeah, but the taxes
Me: right so.

Cool story bro

As a matter of interest were you working while in the USA?

If you were you do realise you paid local, state and federal taxes?

Did you ever look at your effective tax rate or ask your 'friend' what their ETR was?

MightyMandarin

Brian? wrote: »

I had some very strange experiences in this regard while living in the US:

Me: Oh, I finished college with zero debt. I went to an IT and paid almost nothing in fees. University is still cheap. My masters program is 2700 a year. My wife had 6 months paid off work after our first son was born . I get paid sick leave, the government covers it of it goes over 3 consecutive days.
American friend: I wish it was like that here. It sounds brilliant.
Me: you'd have to pay more taxes
American friend: **** that. I ain't paying for other people
Me: but I thought you liked the sound of a social democracy
AF: yeah, but the taxes
Me: right so.

You should've said to him
'Well who's going to pay for your cheap college education and your sick leave?'

People want all the bonuses and perks but don't realise that with shared benefit comes shared responsibility.

Social democracy works because everyone pays their fair share and receives at least the bare minimum of a house, education and healthcare. American capitalism doesn't work because the rich don't pay their fair share and only the wealthy can afford a house, education and healthcare plus everything else after that, while the poor remain poor, less-educated and less cared for.

Nodin

Brian? wrote: »

Bernies ideas resonate with many working people because they make sense, right up to the point the extra taxes needed come up.

I had some very strange experiences in this regard while living in the US:

Me: Oh, I finished college with zero debt. I went to an IT and paid almost nothing in fees. University is still cheap. My masters program is 2700 a year. My wife had 6 months paid off work after our first son was born . I get paid sick leave, the government covers it of it goes over 3 consecutive days.
American friend: I wish it was like that here. It sounds brilliant.
Me: you'd have to pay more taxes
American friend: **** that. I ain't paying for other people
Me: but I thought you liked the sound of a social democracy
AF: yeah, but the taxes
Me: right so.

It's a remarkably consistent attitude over the states. In a similar vein they can be a remarkably generous people to others who fall on a hard time out of their own pocket, time and effort, but the notion of a tax going towards the poor for similar ends seems to raise a very very different reaction.

Fr Tod Umptious

MightyMandarin wrote: »

You should've said to him
'Well who's going to pay for your cheap college education and your sick leave?'

People want all the bonuses and perks but don't realise that with shared benefit comes shared responsibility.

Social democracy works because everyone pays their fair share and receives at least the bare minimum of a house, education and healthcare. American capitalism doesn't work because the rich don't pay their fair share and only the wealthy can afford a house, education and healthcare plus everything else after that, while the poor remain poor, less-educated and less cared for.

With all due respect, based on you last few posts about Bernie not being radical, the importance of polls and now this, you really don't have a clue about America or its people.

johnnyskeleton

my friend wrote: »

Cool story bro

Mod note:

This is far below the standard of comment required in this forum.

Fr Tod Umptious

Brian? wrote: »

Bernies ideas resonate with many working people because they make sense, right up to the point the extra taxes needed come up.

I had some very strange experiences in this regard while living in the US:

Me: Oh, I finished college with zero debt. I went to an IT and paid almost nothing in fees. University is still cheap. My masters program is 2700 a year. My wife had 6 months paid off work after our first son was born . I get paid sick leave, the government covers it of it goes over 3 consecutive days.
American friend: I wish it was like that here. It sounds brilliant.
Me: you'd have to pay more taxes
American friend: **** that. I ain't paying for other people
Me: but I thought you liked the sound of a social democracy
AF: yeah, but the taxes
Me: right so.

Reminds me of the times I tell Americans that people on welfare in Ireland get a Christmas bonus, yes a bonus for not working.

They cannot believe it, and I don't blame them.

Manach

Well given other commentators point out that over a certain point taxes become more than a social safety net but instead a drag both on the economy, a disincentive to innovation and a magic money tree for the government to shake for their vote buying policies.

First Up

Nodin wrote:

It's a remarkably consistent attitude over the states. In a similar vein they can be a remarkably generous people to others who fall on a hard time out of their own pocket, time and effort, but the notion of a tax going towards the poor for similar ends seems to raise a very very different reaction.

Very true. I lived for some years in a prosperous town in the NYC commuter belt. High property taxes funded excellent local services - and kept the riff raff out.

It typified the US culture of self sufficiency and reaping the rewards of your own efforts. Most people donated generously to charity but it was a private matter.

That culture runs deep and although the Dems have something of a social conscience, Sanders socialist ideas will be repugnant to a large majority, even in his own party.

MightyMandarin

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

With all due respect, based on you last few posts about Bernie not being radical, the importance of polls and now this, you really don't have a clue about America or its people.

Any evidence to form the basis of your claim or are you just going to blindly accuse me of 'not having a clue'?

Bernie's ideas are not radical. The majority of the western world has already implemented most of his plans, and while a lot of them will bring sweeping change to America, they're far from as 'radical' as those suggested by the leading candidates in the GOP race.

If you think polls aren't important then you don't know anything about politics. Yes there are examples where pollsters got it wrong, but they're the exception and not the rule. In this age of almost hourly polls, there are very little surprises in elections anymore.

If you think I'm wrong in my opinions on american capitalism then please show me where I'm wrong.

MightyMandarin

Hillary Clinton’s national lead is slipping faster in 2016 than it did in 2008

I would post the charts but the images are a bit too large.

Looks like a repeat of '08 is happening.

my friend

MightyMandarin wrote: »

Hillary Clinton’s national lead is slipping faster in 2016 than it did in 2008

I would post the charts but the images are a bit too large.

Looks like a repeat of '08 is happening.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Hillary will not make the Oval Office
She is in free fall

She's resorted to rolling out Bill today and this is in an attempt to see off Bernie... Panic stations

Pity she wasn't so proactive over Benghazi

Black Swan

Permabear wrote: »

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I would not know about what "most liberals" think, especially the "most" part given that the liberals I know are very different from each other, and argue and disagree constantly about politics.

Once gain, there are already too many laws governing personal behaviour, especially those that extend the paternalistic notion that a young 22-year-old woman needs to be protected from older men of position, while at the same time they are old enough at age 18 to join the military and die for their country. Does anyone see the craic in such a contradiction?

All Monica had to say was NO, and that would have been the end of it; but she said YES. I'm sure that "Rock Star" Bill Clinton had many to choose from, and if Monica said no, he would have just asked another, so the whole career threat thing was mere supposition and not based upon reliable evidence. Now if you had been a fly on the wall in the Oval Office, and not armchair guessing, then that may be a different matter. Nor am I likely to put a lot of faith in the books written since then that addressed the issue, because scandal sells and makes for great profits, be it valid or invalid or whatever.

Once again, Bill Clinton is not running for public office, and Americans are not voting for the First Lady or First Man November 2016. I see no First Lady or First Man on the ballot, and I have not seen a debate between them like the candidates for president 2016.

Brian?

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Reminds me of the times I tell Americans that people on welfare in Ireland get a Christmas bonus, yes a bonus for not working.

They cannot believe it, and I don't blame them.

I honestly have no idea what this has to do with Bernie Sanders polling numbers. I'll happily debate the merits of the Irish social welfare system, but my post wasn't to extole its virtues it was to demonstrate why Sanders will pole well but evetuly lose.

First Up

MightyMandarin wrote:

Bernie's ideas are not radical. The majority of the western world has already implemented most of his plans, and while a lot of them will bring sweeping change to America, they're far from as 'radical' as those suggested by the leading candidates in the GOP race.

Several of us have already pointed out that the political centre in the US is considerably to the right of Europe. Comparing Sanders' ideas against European norms is missing the point.

First Up

Brian? wrote: »

I honestly have no idea what this has to do with Bernie Sanders polling numbers. I'll happily debate the merits of the Irish social welfare system, but my post wasn't to extole its virtues it was to demonstrate why Sanders will pole well but evetuly lose.

I think Fr Tod was agreeing with you.

First Up

MightyMandarin wrote: »

Hillary Clinton’s national lead is slipping faster in 2016 than it did in 2008

I would post the charts but the images are a bit too large.

Looks like a repeat of '08 is happening.

Get your bets on so. Paddy Power has Hillary at 9 to 2 on, with Sanders at 3 to 1. If you believe she is faltering, better grab Bernie before his odds shorten.

Permabear

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First Up

Permabear wrote:

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And all after 8 years of a Democrat in the WH too.

my friend

First Up wrote: »

And all after 8 years of a Democrat in the WH too.

And then you realise how good those numbers could have been but for the ruderless one trick pony who's legacy will be one failed agenda.

Oh what could have been.

First Up

danganabu wrote:

He's on the easier course AFAIK, the one with the back to back 500 yard plus Par 4's, traditionally that is although there doesn't seem to be as much of a disparity this year, -8 for his round now!

my friend wrote:

And then you realise how good those numbers could have been but for the ruderless one trick pony who's legacy will be one failed agenda.

I know, and him after inheriting such a vibrant economy from GWB too. I mean how could he have messed it up so badly?

Permabear

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First Up

Permabear wrote:

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So who do you credit with the crash that preceded it?

Permabear

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Fr Tod Umptious

First Up wrote: »

And all after 8 years of a Democrat in the WH too.

It's more of a long term evolution than just the past decade or so though.

Americans of a certain age will tell you that as kids they were told two things that would happen by the time they got old.
One was that the metric system would be widely used and the second was that soccer would be the most popular sport in America.

Obviously neither have happened

my friend

Now that Bill has hit the circuit expect that his performance in Haiti will be scrutinised, it will also refocus minds on Hillarys activities in Haiti too.

It's only starting !

Kev W

Permabear wrote: »

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Forgive the nitpick but that doesn't really mean anything. Anyone can add any term they like to Urban Dictionary.

For example: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=permabear&defid=5157531

(I didn't add that, by the way)

Permabear

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Permabear

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