2016 US Presidential Race - Mod Warning in OP

Overheal

walshyn93 wrote: »

He made the exact same "blood coming out of her eyes" comment about Neil Cavuto. Not a sexist comment.

That's a misquote, but you already know that.


"Blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her - 'wherever'."

As for his business credentials which you seem to have called upon a few times I suggest you read this rather in depth article from the Washington Post detailing just how terrible his Atlantic City deals went in spite of his overconfidence and his ability to sell people on the initial idea. A story that Donald Trump originally threatened to sue WaPo over if they ran it but I don't assume any such lawsuit will ever emerge

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/trumps-bad-bet-how-too-much-debt-drove-his-biggest-casino-aground/2016/01/18/f67cedc2-9ac8-11e5-8917-653b65c809eb_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_trumptajmahal716pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Suffice to say if he tries to run America like he tries to run a business, we would be screwed.

Kiwi_knock

walshyn93 wrote: »

That's what you get when you have a weak leader. The last three major genocides, Rwana, Srebrenica and the Yazidis have all happened on Democrats watches.

Darfur? Bush labelled the conflict as genocide but took no steps to intervene. So it isn't just the Democrats who sit back and let genocide occur.

Say what you want about Bush, the Bush Doctrine was robust and gave the world a bit of certainty as to how to behave and how not to. You can't police the world if you don't have rules.

The Bush administration's decision to not sign up for the International Criminal Court completely undermined any efforts to create a set of standards for states, so the Bush Doctrine provided no clarity to states on how to behave instead it undermined the very statute that would hold states to account.

Permabear

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Permabear

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Akrasia

walshyn93 wrote: »

I think you underestimate both Trump's talents and the intelligence of world leaders to be able to distinguish between campaign fluff and genuine threats and contempt.

Tbh I just don't take anyone who criticises Trump in terms of intelligence or awareness seriously any more. He has outsmarted everyone, outfoxed FOX. You're just not going to get one over on him no matter how hard you try. It's just a wonder that people still haven't noticed how bright he is.

Either Trump is stupid, or he's clever enough to know how stupid his voters are.

I checked the readability score for one of his speeches and it came out as aimed a 4th grade audience. When he talks, he's talking like a 10 year old.

Either this is his own cognitive level, or he knows that this is the level his voters are at.

It's possible to appear clever by doing simple things well. Sarah Palin is as dumb as a bag of frogs, but she managed to get elected as the governor of Alaska and she was close to becoming the vice president of America.

Trump has a few simple tricks that he uses over and over again.

1. He lies. Unashamedly. When you're prepared to lie, to make up facts and figures in every discussion and every speech, you can appear like you know what you're talking about.

2. He manipulates the dialogue so that he's always attacking others or promoting himself. Whenever anyone challenges anything he says, he just attacks them and gets them defending themselves instead of challenging Trump.

3. He ignores or minimises details. - Trust me, I'll get it done, I'm really smart

4. He plays the victim. He has done this from the very start. He pretends that everyone is out to get him, so that if anyone challenges anything he says, he can say 'this is just more evidence that I'm not being 'treated fairly'

Zascar

Not long now till the results of the Iowa caucus. I'm a big Bernie supporter and really hope he gets the the turnout. If he does not do well here he's toast. but if he gets a good result the momentum could carry.

K-9

I'd forgotten Webb boasted about killing somebody. Together with Trump saying he could shoot somebody that sums up the Republican campaign, its a parody of itself at this stage.

Permabear

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Permabear

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walshyn93

Overheal wrote: »

That's a misquote, but you already know that.


"Blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her - 'wherever'."

As for his business credentials which you seem to have called upon a few times I suggest you read this rather in depth article from the Washington Post detailing just how terrible his Atlantic City deals went in spite of his overconfidence and his ability to sell people on the initial idea. A story that Donald Trump originally threatened to sue WaPo over if they ran it but I don't assume any such lawsuit will ever emerge

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/trumps-bad-bet-how-too-much-debt-drove-his-biggest-casino-aground/2016/01/18/f67cedc2-9ac8-11e5-8917-653b65c809eb_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_trumptajmahal716pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Suffice to say if he tries to run America like he tries to run a business, we would be screwed.

First of all Ive barely referred to his business record at all so don't misrepresent.

Criticising him for Atlantic City is like criticizing him for the recession in 2008. Atlantic City was the next Vegas until it wasn't. Not everything will always go right for you in business. Macro economic factors dont say a lot aboutsomeones business acumen or the ability to work with people. In this day and age we see nothing but tech billionaires who made one website and it took off. Building a real estate and golf club empire is hard and takes decades of work day in day out. And don't give me that inheritance stuff. Most of his inheritance came from the business he had been running for decades.

There's no such thing as a stupid or lazy billionaire real estate mogul. It's pretty funny that this self delusion is still so prevelant when it comes to dismissing others achievements.

walshyn93

Akrasia wrote: »

Either Trump is stupid, or he's clever enough to know how stupid his voters are.

I checked the readability score for one of his speeches and it came out as aimed a 4th grade audience. When he talks, he's talking like a 10 year old.

Either this is his own cognitive level, or he knows that this is the level his voters are at.

It's possible to appear clever by doing simple things well. Sarah Palin is as dumb as a bag of frogs, but she managed to get elected as the governor of Alaska and she was close to becoming the vice president of America.

Trump has a few simple tricks that he uses over and over again.

1. He lies. Unashamedly. When you're prepared to lie, to make up facts and figures in every discussion and every speech, you can appear like you know what you're talking about.

2. He manipulates the dialogue so that he's always attacking others or promoting himself. Whenever anyone challenges anything he says, he just attacks them and gets them defending themselves instead of challenging Trump.

3. He ignores or minimises details. - Trust me, I'll get it done, I'm really smart

4. He plays the victim. He has done this from the very start. He pretends that everyone is out to get him, so that if anyone challenges anything he says, he can say 'this is just more evidence that I'm not being 'treated fairly'

Ah the classic he talks at a 4th grade level ergo he appeals to 4th graders. What that means (and I think you're exaggerating because other researchers put him higher than that but lower than everyone else) is that a 4th grader is the minimum level could understand what he's saying. Is that a bad thing? No. Because it's a rally not a serious event.

He's a fantastic orator is what you mean. He appeals to every single demographic with his words and doesn't talk down to anyone. Uses language that everyone, including the many many people in America for whom English isn't their first language, can understand.

The fact that he talks at a 4th grade level according to your own research doesnt mean his supporters have the intellect of a 4th grader (although for the less bright observers the inference is irresistible) it means everyone can understand him. Why would he overcomplicate things? I think some people like to support complicated and boring things like Kasich to make themselves feel superior.

This is just another one of those things that's used as a smear against Trump supporters in the hopes that fewer will consider joining them. But people aren't as intimidated by liberal bullies anymore. The Emperor has no clothes so to speak.

walshyn93

Permabear wrote: »

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Says it all really

walshyn93

You can complain about Trumps tactics or you can look at his policies. He has got republicans on board with universal health care. He has got republicans on board with noninterventionism. He has got republicans on board with eliminating tax breaks for rich people. 3 pillars of European social democracy have now been accepted by US republicans. Who would have thought it?

The fact is that he's not just latching onto populist policies he's also inspiring people to adopt brand new ones. He's the only type of Reagan that would win in the 21st century.

Akrasia

walshyn93 wrote: »

Ah the classic he talks at a 4th grade level ergo he appeals to 4th graders. What that means (and I think you're exaggerating because other researchers put him higher than that but lower than everyone else) is that a 4th grader is the minimum level could understand what he's saying. Is that a bad thing? No. Because it's a rally not a serious event.

He's a fantastic orator is what you mean. He appeals to every single demographic with his words and doesn't talk down to anyone. Uses language that everyone, including the many many people in America for whom English isn't their first language, can understand.

The fact that he talks at a 4th grade level according to your own research doesnt mean his supporters have the intellect of a 4th grader (although for the less bright observers the inference is irresistible) it means everyone can understand him. Why would he overcomplicate things? I think some people like to support complicated and boring things like Kasich to make themselves feel superior.

This is just another one of those things that's used as a smear against Trump supporters in the hopes that fewer will consider joining them. But people aren't as intimidated by liberal bullies anymore. The Emperor has no clothes so to speak.

You're confusing Demagoguery with leadership.

K-9

Permabear wrote: »

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Shows you how much I'd forgot about him!

Trump is just using the paranoid style in politics favoured by right wing politicians and going back to the foundation of the country, fear of Catholicism, the Irish invasion in famine times, slavery, Communism and now Mexicans and Islam. He uses it because it works, the NRA have perfected it and there's no real consequences for some of the stuff he says, the more the outrage the more the conspiracy.

oscarBravo

Permabear wrote: »

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You've got to admit that, at the very least, that demonstrates that his supporters are easily manipulated.

One question I've never seen Trump or his supporters answer: when did America stop being great?

Permabear

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oscarBravo

Permabear wrote: »

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True enough, but Trump's message is, quite explicitly, that America is no longer great. In common with almost everything he says, it's something his supporters seem only too happy to ignore.

I don't think I've ever seen quite such an example of a politician whose supporters are prepared to ignore almost everything he says in favour of what it suits them to believe he means.

Akrasia

Permabear wrote: »

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Hold on, Sanders is talking about a specific thing, the stagnation of incomes for lower and middle class, and the increasing concentration of wealth amongst the high earners. Sanders is proposing economic reforms that are specifically targeted at reducing this disparity. In fact, Sanders, rather than playing the 'America is the greatest' card, is actually very critical of how america compares with other nations. He spends a lot of time arguing that america is worse than other industrial nations in terms of workers rights, medical care access to education etc.


Trump is just going for non specific jingoism
'Freedom girls' dressed in american flags singing about 'dealing from strength (read bullying the rest of the world)

Permabear

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Permabear

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K-9

Industry has declined, free trade and immigration are the easy targets to blame for that. I'm not sure how anybody could argue the US has declined politically and militarily, the Dept. of Defence is the biggest employer in the world, even bigger than McDonalds or Walmart.

Permabear

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hatrickpatrick

@Permabear, is there any indication as to why tonights Iowa caucus is less of a make-or-break scenario for Republicans than for Democrats? If this has been the case over several election cycles, is it just that Iowa doesn't have as representative a Republican voter base as other states might have?

Permabear

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walshyn93

K-9 wrote: »

Shows you how much I'd forgot about him!

Trump is just using the paranoid style in politics favoured by right wing politicians and going back to the foundation of the country, fear of Catholicism, the Irish invasion in famine times, slavery, Communism and now Mexicans and Islam. He uses it because it works, the NRA have perfected it and there's no real consequences for some of the stuff he says, the more the outrage the more the conspiracy.

Obama used fear politics in 2012 when he said that the social security cheques might suddenly stop. He was BSing people. Romney was accused on using fear to convince people their foreign policy was a disaster. He turned out to be right. Trump is using fear alright. Why not when the current leadership gives everyone reason to be afraid.

Permabear

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MightyMandarin

Permabear wrote: »

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Hence why Rick Santorum won the last time, but did nothing to stop Romney winning overall. Iowa hasn't selected a candidate to go on and win the nomination since 2004 when Bush ran unopposed.

Black Swan

Whoa, I've been reading about the differences between the Democrats and Republicans in terms of how they structure the Iowa caucus. They are very different indeed. The GOP votes on ballots (or even scraps of paper) from the precincts about the state, forwarding the counts to the central GOP HQ, making this a bit similar to a primary election with secret ballots. The Democrats do something that resembles a caucus, with no secret ballots, grouping by candidate, voting in the open where everyone can see, and subsequent re-alignments of small groupings into larger groupings. In the latter case, the O’Malley group may end up joining the Clinton or Sanders group (or spread between), and make the difference in a close election who wins.

Source: http://kfor.com/2016/01/31/confused-about-how-the-iowa-caucuses-work-heres-a-guide/

oscarBravo

walshyn93 wrote: »

Obama used fear politics in 2012 when he said that the social security cheques might suddenly stop. He was BSing people.

Not really.