2016 US Presidential Race - Mod Warning in OP

Permabear

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Permabear

This post has been deleted.

BoJack Horseman

K-9 wrote: »

The Russian military budget is about 14% of the US's according to Wiki.

US spending is larger than the next 9 put together:

That's somewhat out of date.

The 2015 DOD budget was $560bn.... down from $581bn in 2014 & as you show, $630bn in 2013.
A 1/8th reduction in just 2 years, and that has had a considerably negative effect.
Congress recognised this and 2016 expenditure is authorised for $585bn.

It's coming at a bad time for the DOD... through poor project management & lot of various systems are starting to age out & almost every replacement is behind schedule & over-budget culminating in a bit of a mess.... Procurement, R&D, testing & evaluation cost $154bn in 2015

If anyone is interested here is a fantastic PDF outlining what the DOD are buying in 2016, every major platform across all branches, broken down by unit cost & research & testing costs.
It gives a brief explanation as to the progress of the programes and what they do

Comparing the US-DOD budget to Russia's is all but pointless, even though the Russian budget is rising rapidly.
46% of the DOD's budget is simply pay & benefits.
the Russian military is paid a fraction of US service personnel pay, The force is still about 1/4 to 1/3 conscript (depending on branch) and those conscripts get paid about $14 per month!

It comes down to what the countries are able to offer.

In this regard, China is the biggest.
Russia is on course for a 36 brigade force structure for its land forces..... the USA's cuts & reforms from 2013-2018 will max this out at 30.


I suppose to round it off to the topic.... I've been perusing the defence policies of the GOP gaggle & hillary & Bernie....
I don't know whether it's their fault or not, but they all promise "strength", but detail is very scarce & the ability to delivery may be outside their control anyway.

Manach

Pre-Iowa predictions?
Mine: Sanders/Cruz

BoJack Horseman

Manach wrote: »

Pre-Iowa predictions?
Mine: Sanders/Cruz

Southern belle Lindsey Graham to make a storming comeback....

What, no?

Ok:

Hill-dog / Cruz

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

20Cent

Manach wrote: »

Pre-Iowa predictions?
Mine: Sanders/Cruz

Think Sanders/Cruz as well.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

MightyMandarin

Manach wrote: »

Pre-Iowa predictions?
Mine: Sanders/Cruz

My heart says: Sanders/One of the 2 crazy guys, I don't really care

Head says: Hillary/Cruz

BoJack Horseman

People in Iowa be like:

K-9

Clinton/Cruz

K-9

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

That's somewhat out of date.

The 2015 DOD budget was $560bn.... down from $581bn in 2014 & as you show, $630bn in 2013.
A 1/8th reduction in just 2 years, and that has had a considerably negative effect.
Congress recognised this and 2016 expenditure is authorised for $585bn.

It's coming at a bad time for the DOD... through poor project management & lot of various systems are starting to age out & almost every replacement is behind schedule & over-budget culminating in a bit of a mess.... Procurement, R&D, testing & evaluation cost $154bn in 2015

If anyone is interested here is a fantastic PDF outlining what the DOD are buying in 2016, every major platform across all branches, broken down by unit cost & research & testing costs.
It gives a brief explanation as to the progress of the programes and what they do

Comparing the US-DOD budget to Russia's is all but pointless, even though the Russian budget is rising rapidly.
46% of the DOD's budget is simply pay & benefits.
the Russian military is paid a fraction of US service personnel pay, The force is still about 1/4 to 1/3 conscript (depending on branch) and those conscripts get paid about $14 per month!

It comes down to what the countries are able to offer.

In this regard, China is the biggest.
Russia is on course for a 36 brigade force structure for its land forces..... the USA's cuts & reforms from 2013-2018 will max this out at 30.


I suppose to round it off to the topic.... I've been perusing the defence policies of the GOP gaggle & hillary & Bernie....
I don't know whether it's their fault or not, but they all promise "strength", but detail is very scarce & the ability to delivery may be outside their control anyway.

So about 10% cut in 3 years. How does that stack up with cuts in other expenditure areas?

BoJack Horseman

K-9 wrote: »

How does that stack up with cuts in other expenditure areas?

Defence was prioritised in sequestration.
plus, the Nunn–McCurdy Amendment curtailed a lot of mismanagemed programmes of late, primarily the Zumwalt class destroyers for example getting their funding cut.

MightyMandarin

CNN reporting 67% of GOP caucus-goers are evangelicals. It would seem like Cruz will win, but it's still tight between him, Trump and Rubio in the entrance polls.

PressRun

Looks like it's going to be tight enough for both parties. Clinton won't like being made to sweat like this.

Overheal

Dems - Reporting Districts (78.6%) Hillary (534 votes/50 %) Sanders (520 votes/49 %) O'Malley (6 votes / ~1%)

Reps - Reporting Districts (62.3%) Cruz (31036 votes/28 %) Trump (27434 votes/25 %) Rubio (23997 votes/22 %) Carson (10594 votes/10 %)

Overheal

well, he's losing Iowa.

Amazingfun

Overheal wrote: »

well, he's losing Iowa.

It's not the end of the world, lots more to come :cool:

Black Swan

Iowa Caucus 84% reporting for Republicans 7:28 Pacific Time Monday 1 February according to AP:

Cruz 27.7
Trump 24.4
Rubio 23.0
Carson 9.3
Paul 4.5
Bush 2.8

Live source (changes): https://www.google.com/search?q=iowa+caucus+results&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8#eob=R/2/short/m.03s0w/

Overheal

First to fall out of the race:

O'Malley
Huckabee

Black Swan

AP reports that Ted Cruz wins Iowa Republican nomination, which, if confirmed Tuesday will suggest that the most recent Iowa polls showing across the board Trump win were way off. Earlier in this thread it had been suggested that Trump supporters were the most visible, polled him higher than Cruz, but would not show up at the Iowa caucus in the same numbers to win.

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/live/iowa-caucus-2016-election/

Overheal

with 90.5% of democrat precincts reporting, only 3 votes separate Sanders and Clinton.

Black Swan

NYT live reports Clinton 634 votes and Sanders 631 votes, with 7 O'Malley at 90% reporting.

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/live/iowa-caucus-2016-election/

InTheTrees

Black Swan wrote: »

AP reports that Ted Cruz wins Iowa Republican nomination, which, if confirmed Tuesday will suggest that the most recent Iowa polls showing across the board Trump win were way off.

It looks the final result is Cruz 28%, trump 24% and rubio 23%.

Clinton and Sanders are still tied with about 8% still to report.

Black Swan

During a meeting with the editorial board of the New York Times Trump stated: “I would tax China coming in — products coming in. I would do a tariff. And they do it to us. We have to be smart. I’m a free trader. I’m a free trader. And some of the people would say, ‘Oh, it’s terrible.’ I’m a free trader. I love free trade. But it’s got to be reasonably fair. I would do a tax, and the tax — let me tell you what the tax should be. The tax should be 45 percent."

Does anyone see the contradiction in what Trump says between claiming to be a "free trader," while at the same time wanting to impose an extraordinary 45 percent tax on China? And where did Trump get the 45 percent number, out of the air? Typical nonsensical emotional appeal campaign statement, just like the Trump Wall he claims will be funded by Mexico.

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/fact-check.html?ref=liveblog&_r=0

Overheal

94.3%

660 votes to 656.

edit:

96.5% reporting

678 votes to 658. Still very tight.

Black Swan

Permabear wrote: »

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Agree, and the news media has been fanning the undeserved excitement with being first.

Permabear wrote: »

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The last presidential election without an incumbent was 2008, and Republican Huckabee had a huge lead in first place and won Iowa, with McCain coming in at a significantly lower 4th place, but later getting the GOP national nomination. The 2008 Iowa caucus for the GOP was very misleading.

2 February 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus Results:
Huckabee 40,841 (34.4%)
Romney 29,949 (25.2%)
Thompson 15,904 (13.4%)
McCain 15,559 (13.1%)

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Agree. Huckabee just withdrew from 2016.

Overheal

98.3% reporting

689 to 686 - 50% to 50% (O'Malley 8, >1%)

Dead heat for hours now.

Overheal

99.2% reporting...

694 to 692, and 8.

Black Swan

Overheal wrote: »

99.2% reporting...

694 to 692, and 8.

What happens to the 8? Are they O'Malley or undecided? They do not constitute the minimum 15%, so will they be re-allocated to either Clinton or Sanders or both; or do they constitute a precinct number and allowed to stand? Not sure.