2016 US Presidential Race - Mod Warning in OP

Dohnjoe

I wouldn't say the GOP is eating itself, just undergoing a change led by Trump

They may hate him but they love his numbers, so we have a "bright" future of Trump clones in subsequent elections, extreme populists appealing to low information voters



Obama being pretty spot on recently:

"they recognise that being president is a serious job".
"It's not hosting a talk show or a reality show, it's not promotion, it's not marketing, it's hard. It's not a matter of pandering and doing whatever will get you in the news on a given day."

LuckyLloyd

Is Ted Cruz a respectable national level politician worthy of being a president though? Because it could be well him 1 : 1 with Trump after March 5.

I am reminded of this superb article about Tea Party Voters:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/matt-taibbi-on-the-tea-party-20100928

My feeling is that some of the genuine conservatives on here still believe in the GOP as the serious credible balance to The Great Society - the Republican Party of Buckley and Friedman. However this primary season is proving that has been long lost. The base has maybe imbibed too much Glenn Beck, Bill O'Reilly and dwelled in the outrage bunker for too long. Trump and Cruz are not defects, they're features of the last 20 years of a reluctance to engage in bi partisanship.

And it's a good thing. America needs a serious credible Republican Party. Not version 4.0_2016. It seems to me that is the story right now, and what a story!!

JPNelsforearm

You need balance, Trump brings that balance, the Republican party will not survive as a democrat-lite party

Permabear

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Black Swan

JPNelsforearm wrote: »

You need balance, Trump brings that balance

One party control, be it Republican or Democrat, circumvents checks and balances in the American system of government. 2017 Republican control of both houses of Congress, the Executive (presidency with Trump or other GOP), and eventual stacking of US Supreme Court results in a lack of BALANCE.

JPNelsforearm

Black Swan wrote: »

One party control, be it Republican or Democrat, circumvents checks and balances in the American system of government. 2016 Republican control of both houses of Congress, the Executive (presidency with Trump or other GOP), and eventual stacking of US Supreme Court results in a lack of BALANCE.

I meant in the Republican Party, the republican party has forgone its base to appeal to religious nutters and pander to big business and "minorities" trying to position itself as a Democrat-lite party.

Someone like Trump is righting the ship, his popularity and poll numbers back this up. He is presenting the real alternative to the Democrat party, bringing balance.

Akrasia

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Who do you think the Irish government are trying to disenfranchise with their similar (arguably mor onerous) ID checks?

I've never been asked for any id at a polling station. The polling card is enough ID 99% of the time

Black Swan

JPNelsforearm wrote: »

Someone like Trump is righting the ship, his popularity and poll numbers back this up. He is presenting the real alternative to the Democrat party, bringing balance.

No one knows what Trump will do if elected Novemberf 2016. No one. Since he started campaigning he has been saying outrageous and controversial statements per his 1987 book The Art of the Deal, wherein he discusses how to manipulate the press and its audience with sensationalist comments to get free coverage and notice.

LuckyLloyd

JPNelsforearm wrote: »

I meant in the Republican Party, the republican party has forgone its base to appeal to religious nutters and pander to big business and "minorities" trying to position itself as a Democrat-lite party.

Someone like Trump is righting the ship, his popularity and poll numbers back this up. He is presenting the real alternative to the Democrat party, bringing balance.

I don't understand how tying itself to Big Business or religious nutters makes it 'Democrat lite'? Trump's platform is populist and embraces things like economic protectionism which should be heresy to any true conservative. I personally think he is proving much more savvy than initially assumed and is figuring how to engage the 2016 republican base quite well.

LuckyLloyd

Permabear wrote: »

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The longer Bush and Kasich hang around the more likely it becomes that he wins the nomination. ~35% in a five way race equals 1st. ~40% in a two way race is last place. And I agree that they'll hang around much longer than usual in the hope that 'last establishment candidate standing' carries some currency come convention.

Gary Johnson is a serious politician who espouses a coherent platform. Have you checked out the rest of the Libertarian field however?

Permabear

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Akrasia

eire4 wrote: »

Then nobody has to worry about voter fraud or voter suppression anymore.

Unfortunately the voter id issue is only a tiny fraction of the voter suppression that has become part of the U.S. election system.

Even where voters have ID, they often find that they still cannot vote.

I'm sorry 'Mrs Oprah Black', we only have a Mrs 'Oprah S Black' registered at this precinct
Oh, don't worry though, here, take this 'provisional ballot card' and pretend to vote. We'll almost certainly just throw the vote away, but you can at least feel like you voted.

Or the millions of voters who have been purged from the voting register because their names are similar to the names of a convicted felon in a different state, or the fact that in selected voting districts, the voting machines have a much much higher 'spoilage' rates due to machine errors, (not deliberate spoilage by the voters)

Greg Palast has provided evidence that black and minority voters are 900% more likely to have their votes 'spoiled' than white voters

According to the NY times, between 2 and 3 million votes were 'spoiled' in the 2008 election.

Millions of voters are disenfranchised every election year through what is essentially industrial scale election fraud. Both parties engage in it, but the republicans are by far the biggest culprits in the recent 4 election cycles (at least)

Permabear

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Akrasia

Permabear wrote: »

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It's a strange definition of surging you have, she Hillary was polling at 71% in December, and now she's at 58% with her lead declining faster the closer it gets to the polling day (still 10 days off)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html

What's also extremely worrying for Hillary is the level of conviction expressed by those who currently support her

In South Carolina, however, just 43% say they have definitely decided whom to support with about 10 days to go before Election Day. Potentially troublesome for Clinton: Blacks were far less likely to say they are committed to a candidate than whites. About a third of black voters (34%) say they have decided on a candidate versus nearly 6 in 10 white voters (57%).
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/16/politics/south-carolina-poll-cnn-orc/

The Democrat Nevada Caucus is this Saturday and the polls are neck and neck, with Nate Silver calling Bernie as the likely winner due to the momentum his campaign is building in the state.

I'd say Hillary is very worried right now.

She had enjoyed huge leads in the polls before people started to actually pay any attention to the campaign, and then her support starts to evaporate.

She's gone on all out attack mode against Sanders accusing him of being a 'single issue candidate' who is obsessed with wall street but it's not working. She probably shouldn't be drawing attention to her own links to wall street.

Akrasia

Permabear wrote: »

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The ethnicity of the voters is measured by exit polls.

Exit polls measure which people think they have voted. Palast has provided lots of evidence that people who think they have voted may very well have not been counted in the final tally.

Were there 'provisional ballots' issued at your polling station? How many people think they voted but were only given provisional ballots because their ID didn't exactly match the name on their polling card?, or they weren't on the register at all because they had been 'purged' by the 'interstate cross check project'

http://projects.aljazeera.com/2014/double-voters/index.html

Permabear

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Christy42

Akrasia wrote: »

Unfortunately the voter id issue is only a tiny fraction of the voter suppression that has become part of the U.S. election system.

Even where voters have ID, they often find that they still cannot vote.

I'm sorry 'Mrs Oprah Black', we only have a Mrs 'Oprah S Black' registered at this precinct
Oh, don't worry though, here, take this 'provisional ballot card' and pretend to vote. We'll almost certainly just throw the vote away, but you can at least feel like you voted.

Or the millions of voters who have been purged from the voting register because their names are similar to the names of a convicted felon in a different state, or the fact that in selected voting districts, the voting machines have a much much higher 'spoilage' rates due to machine errors, (not deliberate spoilage by the voters)

Greg Palast has provided evidence that black and minority voters are 900% more likely to have their votes 'spoiled' than white voters

According to the NY times, between 2 and 3 million votes were 'spoiled' in the 2008 election.

Millions of voters are disenfranchised every election year through what is essentially industrial scale election fraud. Both parties engage in it, but the republicans are by far the biggest culprits in the recent 4 election cycles (at least)

The ID issue shouldn't be one. Having ID should be a basic requirement whether or not voter fraud has been happening. The fact that this type of discussion is based on IDs is frustrating given it is much harder to argue that this is fraud than some of the other issues you mentioned.

The rest of the stuff are actual major issues and should be highlighted more. I imagine Colbert was highlighting the difficulty of the IDs to get (which can also be an issue) but really the amount of fraud by both sides even down to the placing of the ballot boxes is insane and needs to be stopped.

I did find it amusing being in Boston for the last presidential election how little any of that went on or even any campaigning. It seems they don't care unless you are in a swing state. It seems a little messed up that so much of the country is ignored as the vote is already decided there. Have to imagine it is frustrating for people in opposition dominated regions to know there is no point in going to a polling station while in areas where it might matter rules are put in place by the other side to stop you voting!

MightyMandarin

Permabear wrote: »

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She's not surging ahead, she already was ahead, as she was in Nevada (where she's now tied) and New Hampshire (where she was battered). She'll win SC easily, but if Bernie can come within 10-15% of her I'd think he's doing well.

Sanders is obsessed with Wall St because that's where America's economic problems lie. It's the same way Trump and the republicans are obsessed with immigrants and also China. Like it or not the economy is the biggest issue for most voters, and Hillary is much weaker on this than Bernie because she claims to be against Wall St. but really she's just a shill.

If you think Bernie is just a 'single issue candidate' then you should watch his rallies and speeches. He talks about far more than Wall St. and his voting record regarding America's foreign policy is excellent, he supports legalising marijuana, he wants a single payer health program and public-funded college tuition, he wants to rebuild America's infrastructure and create thousands of new jobs, he wants more background checks for gun purchases but isn't going to allow gun shops be responsible when a customer uses a purchased gun in a crime, and he also wants equal pay for women. There is a lot more to him than just Wall St., even though it's his mantra.

Permabear

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Brian?

Permabear wrote: »

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Mostly paid for by taking money out of the hide of Wall Street, it seems. See, even when Sanders appears to be talking about something else, like universal free health care, or infrastructure, or free college, he's really just talking about how he's going to spend Wall Street's money after he asset-strips Wall Street and the One Percent. It's hard to avoid the fact that this is his obsession.[/quote]

It's not an obsession, it's a policy platform. Redistribution of wealth as per the Social Democratic model . You might as well say Rand Paul is obsessed with personal liberty.

Overheal

Akrasia wrote: »

I've never been asked for any id at a polling station. The polling card is enough ID 99% of the time

Maybe you're not brown enough to warrant suspicion?

eire4

Permabear wrote: »

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Again and again I have put forward a national voter ID card paid for by the government that would put this voter ID issue to bed but your still scrambling around talking about complaints on how things are currently.


Again I say it the current claim of voter fraud is a smokescreen to indulge in voter suppression and the fact that a national voter ID card can easily solve this problem and is not being taken up just furthers the reality of this fact.

eire4

Overheal wrote: »

Bush posted a picture of his gun on his tweeter page with the word America written as if this is a symbol of America. Lots of outrage has since poured forth about it. To be fair to Bush given America's bloodbath obsession with guns it certainly is accurate as one symbol of the US.

Follow

eire4

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Yet she's going to beat Sanders in SC by ~20 points.

Lots of fluff on this thread imo. The most fascinating election in my lifetime is playing out daily producing a huge amount of fascinating potential scenarios to feast on; fluid polling numbers and big questions about the future landscape of the parties. And we're talking about the voter rights question again. *Shrugs*

Nevada is first up though on the Democratic side and Sanders has closed the gap there massively. In fact Nevada has gone from a safe Clinton win to a toss up. Todays CNN poll has Clinton up by 1 in Nevada. At christmas time Clinton had a 23 point lead in Nevada. Their South Carolina poll has Clinton with an 18 point lead in South Carolina. At the end of January that lead was in the mid 30's so double what it is now. Clearly she will win in South Carolina comfortably as Sanders did in New Hampshire. But Nevada is very tight now when previously it was assumed to be a comfortable Clinton win.

Permabear

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eire4

Permabear wrote: »

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A yes those angels on wall street bless their hearts. I mean come on they only tanked the economy and destroyed millions of peoples lives then blackmailed the governmnet to pay for their crimes which they got away with with impunity. They continue to engage in criminal behaviour as the stream of settlements over recent years tells. But hey thats just the cost of doing business. How could anybody possibly think ill of their behaviour shock horror.

MightyMandarin

Permabear wrote: »

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It's a much broader concern, but listen to Rand Paul speak and you'll hear him talk about 'big government' just as much as Sanders does with Wall St. and Trump does with immigrants. It's a clear political tactic because you have to find a culprit for the problems you identify.

Now you might claim he's scapegoating wall st. but the reality is, Wall St (if we're talking about big financial corporations) has ruined America's economy in the past 20yrs. This is an unescapable fact, and even though it was successive administrations who allowed them to do it, big financial corporations wrecked America and effectively got away with it.

Sanders also uses WalMart as an example of a big co. who desperately underpays its workers, oil companies who are trying to pass the keystone pipeline and are destroying the environment with fracking. The essence of his blame game is more than just 'big finance' it's big corporations in general, and they are responsible for what they've done imo. I hope you're not going to equate a populist demagogue in Trump with Bernie. He is much more than that, and you just want to dismiss him because of your own political and financial interests without fully analysing his policies and claims with proper merit.

Clinton is Wall Street. She's a pure shill and will solve nothing. The big financial corporations wouldn't be giving her donations otherwise. She will allow them to ruin the economy just like Bill did.

LuckyLloyd

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2323

The Donald Trump juggernaut rolls to a 2-1 lead among Republican voters nationwide, with 39 percent, his highest total so far, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida with 19 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 18 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today. Ohio Gov. John Kasich has 6 percent with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Dr. Ben Carson at 4 percent each. Nine percent are undecided.

Reports of Donald Trump’s imminent demise as a candidate are clearly and greatly exaggerated. Like a freight train barreling through signals with his horn on full blast, Trump heads down the track towards a possible nomination.

New Nevada CNN Poll:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/17/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-nevada-poll/index.html

Trump 45%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 17%
Carson 7%
Kasich 5%
Bush 1%

T R U M P

Amerika

Overheal wrote: »

Completely False!

(and all the 'likes' really says a lot. :rolleyes:)

LuckyLloyd

eire4 wrote: »

Nevada is first up though on the Democratic side and Sanders has closed the gap there massively. In fact Nevada has gone from a safe Clinton win to a toss up. Todays CNN poll has Clinton up by 1 in Nevada. At christmas time Clinton had a 23 point lead in Nevada. Their South Carolina poll has Clinton with an 18 point lead in South Carolina. At the end of January that lead was in the mid 30's so double what it is now. Clearly she will win in South Carolina comfortably as Sanders did in New Hampshire. But Nevada is very tight now when previously it was assumed to be a comfortable Clinton win.

It's really not a race, I'm sorry. Clinton has it locked up. The media want to sell it as a race and Sanders has excited me and his adoring supporters, but it's all locked up in terms of the demographics and primary map. If you believe otherwise you can buy Sanders contracts at ~19c on the dollar on Intrade alternatives.