2016 US Presidential Race - Mod Warning in OP

Inquitus

My assumption we are all democrats with regard to the US is based solely on the fact, as mentioned above, all our parties exist a long way to the left of the democrats. Can you imagine us as a country abolishing the HSE, defunding education, abolishing social welfare?

My colleagues here in the US pay @30% tax at the top end and bitch about it, we pay @50%.

America will lurch to the left sooner or later, it could happen with bernie, they need a more equitable society, race discrimination has merely been replaced with wealth discrimination as time had passed. I visited the museum of the new New South here in Charlotte this morning and that was made quote evident.

BoJack Horseman

Inquitus wrote: »

Can you imagine us as a country abolishing the HSE, defunding education, abolishing social welfare?

Has the US done this?

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Fr Tod Umptious

Inquitus wrote: »

My assumption we are all democrats with regard to the US is based solely on the fact, as mentioned above, all our parties exist a long way to the left of the democrats. Can you imagine us as a country abolishing the HSE, defunding education, abolishing social welfare?

My colleagues here in the US pay @30% tax at the top end and bitch about it, we pay @50%.

America will lurch to the left sooner or later, it could happen with bernie, they need a more equitable society, race discrimination has merely been replaced with wealth discrimination as time had passed. I visited the museum of the new New South here in Charlotte this morning and that was made quote evident.

Your theory is way off.
You are trying to compare Ireland with the US like with like, while in reality they are very different, thus you cannot assume that because a voter would vote for the centre right party in Ireland that they would vote for the next closest party in the US (the Dems).

In the US they would vote for what is best for them given their circumstances in the US, and that may just as likely be the GOP as the Dems.

RobertKK

Social conservatives here would also vote GOP.

There is a sizable section of society in Ireland who are social conservatives. Howe many in Ireland would vote for a party that supports partial birth abortions?
Yet the Democrats always support that.

20Cent

RobertKK wrote: »

Social conservatives here would also vote GOP.

There is a sizable section of society in Ireland who are social conservatives. Howe many in Ireland would vote for a party that supports partial birth abortions?
Yet the Democrats always support that.

Didn't 60 something percent of us just vote for same sex marriage? Repealing the eighth has a lot of support also. I'd say we're a lot more liberal than the US.

BoJack Horseman

20Cent wrote: »

Didn't 60 something percent of us just vote for same sex marriage?

11 years after SSM started to become legal in the US

Repealing the eighth has a lot of support also.

To be replaced with what?
There is very limited support for the scope of permissible terminations allowed in the USA.

I'd say we're a lot more liberal than the US.

23 years ago, it was illegal to be a homosexual in Ireland.

We are nowhere near as socially liberal.
Perhaps one day, but not yet.

RobertKK

20Cent wrote: »

Didn't 60 something percent of us just vote for same sex marriage? Repealing the eighth has a lot of support also. I'd say we're a lot more liberal than the US.

38% voted against.
Known Republican politicians who support SSM http://www.ijreview.com/2014/10/185584-9-prominent-republicans-who-support-gay-marriage/

A newstalk Red C poll showed a majority would not support repeal the 8th if abortion didn't remain extremely limited.
Then Labour come out wanting what the UK has, which wouldn't pass here.

RobertKK

I wonder if this record turn out to vote for the GOP primaries and caucuses is a very good sign for the GOP candidate later in the year?

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

20Cent

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

You rarely hear an Irish politician going on about God or if one said that God was talking to him we'd consider them insane. We don't lock people up for life for drug possetion like they do I the states. Abortion yeah but that's changing. Weed will be legalised in our lifetime.

20Cent

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

11 years after SSM started to become legal in the US


To be replaced with what?
There is very limited support for the scope of permissible terminations allowed in the USA.


23 years ago, it was illegal to be a homosexual in Ireland.

We are nowhere near as socially liberal.
Perhaps one day, but not yet.

Talking about now. The current population are a lot more liberal.

Fr Tod Umptious

20Cent wrote: »

Didn't 60 something percent of us just vote for same sex marriage? Repealing the eighth has a lot of support also. I'd say we're a lot more liberal than the US.

The SSM debate will be seen as a walk on the park compared to any abortion debate in Ireland.
Abortion is a highly emotive issue.

BoJack Horseman

20Cent wrote: »

The current population are a lot more liberal.

If so, a woman would have control over her reproductive destiny.
If so, religious beliefs could face public condemnation without fear of legal retribution.
If so, I wouldn't have had to baptize my 1 year old into the paedo-cult that is the RCC so the lad can go to a school in 6 years time.

If we are so liberal, our society has a funny & ironic way of expressing it!

ancapailldorcha

The last page or so of this thread has nothing to to with the US election. Back on topic please.

Hande hoche!

RobertKK wrote: »

I wonder if this record turn out to vote for the GOP primaries and caucuses is a very good sign for the GOP candidate later in the year?

There does seem to be more enthusiasm. Of course the flip side of that, is voters might stay home in November if "their candidate" isn't the nominee. Certainly an interesting year all things considered.

KingBrian2

I read that a leading GOP has left the campaign. The female candidate Fiorina. Now this has accompanied a while back Chris Christie so now that the top figures have left it is up to the delegates to decide who to side with. Trump's patronising and obnoxious behaviour might now begin to alienate the people that matter. He might appeal to the Grassroots for sure. This is an entirely different prospect. As we saw in Iowa the caucus voted for the even more conservative candidate of Cruz.

Trump has the electorate mesmerised can he now convince the powerful men in the GOP est to get him in. The odds of Jeb Bush and Rubio were once sky high. Since this campaign began their reputations have taken a heavy beaten. The delegates may not want to side with "losers" to quote from Trump. It seems to me Trump is giving the delegates an ultimatum in short. Vote for me and you get a grassroots favourite like FDR, Reagan and other famous presidencies or vote for the other guy and you might get a political upset.

Manach

On the democratic side, money seems to be flowing to the Sanders camp to the dismay of Clinton's campaign:
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-clinton-money-20160218-story.html

It will be interesting to see if this will mean curtailing of some the media spots if Super Tuesday is not conclusive.

Inquitus

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

In the US they would vote for what is best for them given their circumstances in the US, and that may just as likely be the GOP as the Dems.

That's completely untrue, if all Americans voted for what was best for their bottom line the Democrats would be a shoe in at every election. The whole evangelical, NRA etc. bull**** clouds their judgement, and a vast swathe of the population keep themselves enshrined in poverty by voting GOP when they shouldn't.

Inquitus

Fox and MSNBC calling Nevada for Hillary, 52% to 48%, be interesting to see the GOP results later.

Manach

This is something for those who enjoy statistics and politics:

Working with the Clinton State Dept Email Dumps in R (Part 1: Graphs) - link.

Inquitus

Trump wins South Carolina with 1/3 of the vote. Cruz and Rubio tied for first loser.

LuckyLloyd

Great result for Trump, big question now is who of Carson, Kasich and Bush drops out.

Clinton's numbers with minority voters confirm the Democratic nomination as over. Sanders is well funded so he may hang around a while but it's a coronation parade now from here (as it was supposed to be).

LuckyLloyd

Ah, a tearful Jeb?:( is out (please clap). Prepare yourself for a lot of naive analysis over the coming days that adds jeb!? voters wholly to Rubio. Don't buy it for a second. Rubio may take a majority of them, but it is inconceivable that Trump and Cruz don't pull percantages of the Carson / Kasich / jeb?? supporters.

Overheal

Bush is out. Clinton wins Nevada. Trump wins SC.

MightyMandarin

Jeb(!) dropping out is no surprise imo. He's looked desperate in the past few weeks.

Disappointed that Clinton won NV, but the youth vote failed to materialise for Bernie, unsurprisingly.

Akrasia

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Great result for Trump, big question now is who of Carson, Kasich and Bush drops out.

Clinton's numbers with minority voters confirm the Democratic nomination as over. Sanders is well funded so he may hang around a while but it's a coronation parade now from here (as it was supposed to be).

Sanders beat Clinton in support from Latinos in nevada. That's a huge development. It seems Clinton won mostly because of the age profile of voters in the nevada caucus. The race is by no means over.

According to reports, the voting process in nevada was chaotic and many voters gave up before they got to vote, and many others were turned away due to lack of space

LuckyLloyd

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/20/11080952/jeb-bush-please-clap

What an utterly disgraceful waste of money. Though he comes across as a very decent and human man it must be said.



Trump continues to spend relatively thriftily while still winning.

JPNelsforearm

Heb! cut a pathetic figure by the end, he just didnt have the mettle nor the charisma to ever reel in Trump. It'll be interesting to see who cracks first between Rubio and Cruz, and where there support will go. My money is on a Trump Cruz shootout, Rubio is another bland "Heb!" RNC style of politician.

RobertKK

Trump looks near certain to be the Republican candidate. He is a clever man, he learned from Iowa what he did wrong, and has looked unbeatable ever since.
He along with Rubio have attacked Cruz as being a liar and the evangelicals don't really like liars. It is never good for a candidate to be repeatedly be accused of repeating lies.

Trump has more charisma than all the candidates from both the Republicans and Democrats put together.

Paddypower have the GOP contest as being between Trump and Rubio, with Trump the slight favourite.

They have Clinton as favourite for the presidency, but I don't think Clinton is that likeable. She was the big name in 2008 and Obama easily beat her. This time around Bernie Sanders is putting up a good fight, maybe because he is not Clinton being one reason.

A Trump v Clinton clash would be interesting, even though Clinton is hot favourite, I think the charisma of Trump will be worth a lot of votes.
Trump does seem less hawkish than Clinton, while still being seen as strong with national security, the much talked about wall while drawing criticism from the Pope, has been a really big vote winner.
In the world we live in, where terrorism seems to be a growing problem. I don't think many Americans are concerned about the Canadian border as they know the Canadians are strong on security and there are no countries that border Canada.
When it comes to Mexico and we have seen it in Europe. When you have illegals or undocumented people coming and landing inside your borders, you don't really know who is entering your borders. I suspect a lot of European are concerned about whom we have exactly allowed within our borders, and it is that exact same concern that in the US that makes the wall a popular electioneering point.

I could see Trump beating Clinton, Trump will not be afraid to tear apart Clinton's disastrous record on the international stage.
I expect a Trump to be the GOP candidate, it will be most interesting to see who he will pick as his VP candidate.