2016 US Presidential Race - Mod Warning in OP

colossus-x

Deleted User wrote: »

61% is the highest popular vote anyone'ever had, 62 years ago. 70% ain't happening.

I expect unusual results in this already bizarre election campaign. I can't see republican's voting for Trump in droves when it comes down to the wire. We'll see.

Overheal

Deleted User wrote: »

Hillary won the popular vote.
Is there a breakdown of how superdelegates went?

She consistently lost to Obama in national polling

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

But anyway

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008#Superdelegates

LuckyLloyd

Love the juxtaposition of "illegal Canadian" on the Cruz attack poster with "I am not a racist" refrain of the voter appeal.

Fr Tod Umptious

colossus-x wrote: »

I expect unusual results in this already bizarre election campaign. I can't see republican's voting for Trump in droves when it comes down to the wire. We'll see.

But Clinton is not that popular remember.
So whatever about Republicans not voting in droves for Trump, Democrats ain't going to be voting in droves for Clinton either.

Akrasia

colossus-x wrote: »

It seems to me that there is no doubt it's a Trump/Clinton card. As much as there is a fervour about Trump, I think Clinton will utterly thrash him in the end. Something like 70/30.

PS. I predicted the Conservative majority

A lot of things can happen between now and November.

Also, a lot of things can be invented or exaggerated between now and November.

John Kerry was swift boated out of the race in 2004...

Skylinehead

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Love the juxtaposition of "illegal Canadian" on the Cruz attack poster with "I am not a racist" refrain of the voter appeal.

Got a bit of a fright when I saw the company I work for on Ted Cruz' shirt there. Luckily, doesn't seem to be true :pac:

ECO_Mental

Akrasia wrote: »

A lot of things can happen between now and November.

Also, a lot of things can be invented or exaggerated between now and November.

John Kerry was swift boated out of the race in 2004...

I had forgotten about that whole "Swift Boat" stuff for a country that holds it military to such high esteem and hero worship etc I thought that was shameful that they had a group going after his war record. Just looked it up again and all these allegation were proved to be false but it stuck anyway.

I can never understand how Trump got away with the McCain comments calling him a looser. Any other person would have been decimated if they said something like that. Imagine if Hillary said that wow, I think there would be calls for prosecuting her for treason (and Im serious).

Oh yeah Trump said he would love to punch a protester in one of his rallies in the face.... Stay Classy, Trump, stay Classy real presidential

Overheal

After saying he would never condone violence.

BoJack Horseman

The foreign policy case for Bernie Sanders

Bernie needs to flesh it out more, but will appeal to those seeking to fall back from the world & leave it to others.

colossus-x

Deleted User wrote: »

61% is the highest popular vote anyone'ever had, 62 years ago. 70% ain't happening.

Well I say that because I think that Trumps popularity is somewhat of a protest vote. This election is one of the more unusual one's and I think unusual election results will be in keeping with this unusual election. I see current trump supporters changing their minds when it come to November and I think his outlandish comments will come back to go against him in the end. I accept my 70/30 prediction is probably is a bit optimistic but I still do see a substantial Clinton victory. Being female hasn't played in her favour so far but it will come into play when she's the Democratic nominee.

AbusesToilets

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

The foreign policy case for Bernie Sanders

Bernie needs to flesh it out more, but will appeal to those seeking to fall back from the world & leave it to others.

It would be illuminating to hear his thoughts on the Pentagon's budgeting, and whether he would look to kill some of the big ticket items, such as the F-35 and LCS.

JPNelsforearm

AbusesToilets wrote: »

It would be illuminating to hear his thoughts on the Pentagon's budgeting, and whether he would look to kill some of the big ticket items, such as the F-35 and LCS.

F35 is too big to fail at this point.

Black Swan

Republican delegates won (last updated 23 February 2016 at 2.53 PM Pacific Time):

Candidate | Delegates
Trump | 67
Cruz | 11
Rubio | 10
Kasich | 5
Carson | 3

Nevada Republican caucus will be held between 5PM to 7PM PT today, but may vary by county.

ancapailldorcha

Black Swan wrote: »

Republican delegates won (last updated 23 February 2016 at 2.53 PM Pacific Time):

Candidate | Delegates
Trump | 67
Cruz | 11
Rubio | 10
Kasich | 5
Carson | 3

Nevada Republican caucus will be held between 5PM to 7PM PT today, but may vary by county.

I'd almost entirely forgotten about Carson. His campaign seems to have ended before it ever really begun.

Trump looks like the man who will take the nomination if this continues.

Black Swan

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd almost entirely forgotten about Carson. His campaign seems to have ended before it ever really begun.

Trump looks like the man who will take the nomination if this continues.

It gives that impression at this early stage in the GOP nomination process, although there are 1,237 needed for nomination and 2,369 available delegates.

ancapailldorcha

Black Swan wrote: »

It gives that impression at this early stage in the GOP nomination process, although there are 1,237 needed for nomination and 2,369 available delegates.

True. However, I'd say it's a fairly safe bet at this stage. Rubio hasn't garnered the support he needed and he's the only establishment candidate remaining at this stage.

Black Swan

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

True. However, I'd say it's a fairly safe bet at this stage. Rubio hasn't garnered the support he needed and he's the only establishment candidate remaining at this stage.

Who would have guessed back 30 September 2014 when this thread opened that Trump would be leading in delegates today? Many thought, including yours truly back then, it would be a battle between the Clinton Machine and the Bush Dynasty, and Jeb is now out early in the GOP primaries.

Manach

Offhand, there was a news report on Gov. Kasich's state (Iowa?) which is due fairly soon - would that give him somewhat of a boost? (although looking at a Time's poll, Trump leads there as well)

MightyMandarin

Manach wrote: »

Offhand, there was a news report on Gov. Kasich's state (Iowa?) which is due fairly soon - would that give him somewhat of a boost? (although looking at a Time's poll, Trump leads there as well)

He's Ohio governor. Iowa was the first caucus, remember?

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Black Swan

Manach wrote: »

Offhand, there was a news report on Gov. Kasich's state (Iowa?) which is due fairly soon - would that give him somewhat of a boost? (although looking at a Time's poll, Trump leads there as well)

Kasich is the Governor of very important presidential election swing state Ohio.

ancapailldorcha

Black Swan wrote: »

Who would have guessed back 30 September 2014 when this thread opened that Trump would be leading in delegates today? Many thought, including yours truly back then, it would be a battle between the Clinton Machine and the Bush Dynasty, and Jeb is now out early in the GOP primaries.

I would have been in the same camp myself. However, I wonder if Bloomberg is going to enter the race. There's certainly room for a moderate if Sanders and Trump take their parties' respective nominations but time's running out for him to decide.

Black Swan

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I would have been in the same camp myself. However, I wonder if Bloomberg is going to enter the race. There's certainly room for a moderate if Sanders and Trump take their parties' respective nominations but time's running out for him to decide.

Although there are still thousands of GOP presidential delegates up for grabs at this moment in time, methinks it's too late for Bloomberg to declare running for president. Of course, do you think that he is currently sending up test balloons to see if there may be an interest for him as VP running mate?

BorneTobyWilde

If Cruel Cruz or Rubixio continue it hands victory to Trump . How can either give up when they both are so evenly matched so far.
Only way either can win is for one of them to throw the towel in. Both think its the other that should do that. Trump wins by default.
Can he beat Clinton, I think so. The Republican party will win people have had enough of this weak US.
Putin can kill and murder people all day long, everyone is afraid of him. It will take Trump to put him in his place. The guy commits war crimes and plans the murder of innocent people yet stands shoulder to shoulder with Obama at G8.
wtf.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

ancapailldorcha

Black Swan wrote: »

Although there are still thousands of GOP presidential delegates up for grabs at this moment in time, methinks it's too late for Bloomberg to declare running for president. Of course, do you think that he is currently sending up test balloons to see if there may be an interest for him as VP running mate?

It's not sewn up yet, in this you are correct. However, Trump currently faces little in the way of credible challenge. In terms of running mate and assuming you're referring to Trump, I'd say negotiations are well under way though I'd say he'd prefer Cruz over Rubio. Unless the latter ups his game significantly, the race for Republican nomination is The Donald's to lose.

Bloomberg could be interested though there are issues with his potential running. He seems to enjoy more support from Democrats than Republicans. This would cleave the Democrat vote making a Trump presidency more likely assuming he gets the nomination. Bloomberg does however support free trade and is liberal enough to attract those of a centre-left persuasion. The right will dislike him for his stance on gun control while he's made no friends in teachers' unions on the left.

ancapailldorcha

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Interesting point though I'd like to reiterate my disappointment at Rand Paul withdrawing from the race. There's definitely going to be a niche for a moderate, pragmatic voice if Trump and Sanders are successful in securing the nominations.

BoJack Horseman

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If Cruel Cruz or Rubixio continue it hands victory to Trump . How can either give up when they both are so evenly matched so far.
Only way either can win is for one of them to throw the towel in. Both think its the other that should do that. Trump wins by default.
Can he beat Clinton, I think so. The Republican party will win people have had enough of this weak US.
Putin can kill and murder people all day long, everyone is afraid of him. It will take Trump to put him in his place. The guy commits war crimes and plans the murder of innocent people yet stands shoulder to shoulder with Obama at G8.
wtf.

After Obama's hapless & disastrous misplacement of faith in Putin it would be nice to think a GOP candidate can be more affirmative..... but you won't find it with Trump.

As an authoritarian billionaire he is peas-in-a-pod with the Russian Czar.
Trump has expressed much admiration for Vladi in the past.

Imo, all the candidates appear to be no more suited than to continue the Obama doctrine of global disengagement.

eire4

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If Cruel Cruz or Rubixio continue it hands victory to Trump . How can either give up when they both are so evenly matched so far.
Only way either can win is for one of them to throw the towel in. Both think its the other that should do that. Trump wins by default.
Can he beat Clinton, I think so. The Republican party will win people have had enough of this weak US.
Putin can kill and murder people all day long, everyone is afraid of him. It will take Trump to put him in his place. The guy commits war crimes and plans the murder of innocent people yet stands shoulder to shoulder with Obama at G8.
wtf.

Right and the US hasn't any blood on its hands what with its drone strikers under Obama for instance. The doctors without borders recently being one high profile case. Don't get me wrong Putin is a nasty piece of work. But the US's behaviour when it comes to killing civilians or torture never mind how they threaten and or topple governments they don't like hardly gives them any moral high ground.

Black Swan

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Putin can kill and murder people all day long, everyone is afraid of him. It will take Trump to put him in his place.

If you were interviewing a candidate for the top position in your organisation, would you hire someone that has absolutely ZERO experience that pertains to the most important position responsibilities, basing the hire completely upon what comes out of his mouth? And what mostly comes out of his mouth are "outrageous" and controversial comments, per his 1987 book "Art of the Deal," wherein (pages 56-57?) he talks of how to manipulate the press to get free coverage by saying "outrageous" things, which represents the bulk of what he says to the media and public when campaigning.

Trump has ZERO governance experience for the highest position in US government, ZERO international diplomatic relations experience for the most important US diplomatic position, and for all practical purposes ZERO experience as the CIC of the world's most powerful military (except for being a teenage student at a very, very wealthy person's posh private military high school).

Trump cannot act like the celebrity host of The Apprentice and use his favourite phrase "You're fired!" to Putin or other world leaders or US Senators or US House of Representatives when they don't do what he wants, nor will the bluster out of his mouth aid him in governance or international diplomatic relations. Rather the bluster out of Trump's mouth thus far may cause damage to US international diplomatic relations, because if the Americans elect him president November 2016, then it appears to the world that Americans agree with his bluster comments, reminding me of the old "Ugly American" image that the US once had diplomatically and militarily, throwing their weight about the world with bluster like the world's big bully. The latest bluster comment has distanced me from him completely, when he stated more than once "Torture works," consequently, a vote for Trump is a vote for torture.