2016 US Presidential Race - Mod Warning in OP

Akrasia

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Well P, a lot of people have seen their wages stagnate. I'm talking about people from all manner of walks of life here. They just don't feel like things have gotten better. I work in science and I'm still earning below the UK average wage.

Median U.S. income in 1999 was $58k in real terms
in 2014 it was $53.5k

Global wealth is increasing, but the distribution of that wealth is consolidating within a smaller and smaller number of very wealthy individuals.

When the economic output of the entire world goes to fuel wealth increases for a few dozen individuals, you know that there is something seriously wrong
1% of the worlds wealthiest people own more than the other 99% combined, and half of the worlds wealth is controlled by just 62 people.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/18/richest-62-billionaires-wealthy-half-world-population-combined

Akrasia

Permabear wrote: »

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_wealth

oscarBravo

Permabear wrote: »

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Schrödinger's immigrant - simultaneously taking our jobs and lazing around on welfare.

ancapailldorcha

What exactly is welfare like in America? Can't imagine it's nearly generous enough to justify claims like welfare tourism.

Permabear

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ancapailldorcha

Permabear wrote: »

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Pandering unfortunately seems to be quite effective based on Trump's success. Sanders' support looks like it has fizzled out somewhat.

Permabear wrote: »

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Perhaps not. As you've said, it's complicated and multifaceted. I suspect many graduates will be fine, I don't mean to be overly negative. Unless I suffer a particularly bad run of bad luck or do something daft, I'll hopefully always be in good employment with some basic luxuries and essentials.

Amerika

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What exactly is welfare like in America? Can't imagine it's nearly generous enough to justify claims like welfare tourism.

Here is a chart put out by the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops on refugee assistance.

http://www.usccb.org/about/resettlement-services/upload/Refugee-Assistance-2.pdf

Children get their education K-12 provided for free, and if they have children born here the can also receive housing assistance and expanded welfare benefits involving cash, food, and Medicaid.

Permabear

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Overheal

Overheal wrote: »

John Oliver chose to no longer ignore Drumpf given his recent primary successes. As someone put it on Twitter earlier, "John Oliver could do nothing for the rest of the year and still get an Emmy for this."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnpO_RTSNmQ

Lest I forget, please buy a hat and install your Drumpfinator google chrome extension: http://donaldjdrumpf.com/

eire4

Akrasia wrote: »

Sanders Could win 5 of the 11 super Tuesday states to keep his campaign alive. The more people hear about sanders the more support he gains. Staying in contention early could see him overtake hillary towards the end of the campaign

As much as I would like to Sanders do well tomorrow he is really up against it. He will win in Vermont tomorrow and has a good shot in Massachusetts. But otherwise he is behind in all 9 other states up for grabs on the Democratic side tomorrow. He has a chance of an upset win in Oklahoma. But the key may well be Minnesota and Colorado. These 2 states use the caucus method which I have posted elsewhere is a total joke IMHO as a method of so called voting. If Sanders is to have a shot he needs somehow to win Minnesota and Colorado. Right now it is very unclear as to who is winning in either state with certainty.

eire4

511 wrote: »

Yeah, blame culture. Let's just find a simplistic scapegoat argument and blame it on that without any logical reasoning behind it. It couldn't possibly be the fact that he pisses all over the same political correctness that frustrates the population. I mean, look at the outrage after he said "ban Muslims from entering America until we sort things out". The left immediately interprets that as "expel all Muslims from America".

When Trump accused the Mexican government of deliberately "pushing criminal, rapists drug-runners across the border", the left interprets that as "all Mexicans are rapists".

Trump is a victim of a lot of slander and propaganda during his campaign. The man isn't anywhere near as people make him out to be. Ted Cruz should be getting all the negative press on the Republican because his views belong in 19th century America: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Cruz#Domestic_affairs

Americans love their First Amendment and PC impedes on free speech, so that's why Trump as a lot of appeal to Americans.

Trump is a very dangerous Demagogue but I will agree with you that I think Cruz is an even bigger danger.

eire4

Akrasia wrote: »

Not if half of the non voters turn up just to make sure trump doesn't get elected

True but that is highly unlikely to happen. The US voter turnout in a presidential election has not even hit the 60% mark since the 1960's. Last election voter turnout was a paltry 55%. To see that turnout increased by roughly 20% with close to half of those who didn't vote last time showing up to vote would be stunning. The last time voter turnout hit the 70% mark in the US presidential elections was 1900 when it was 73%.

eire4

Permabear wrote: »

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I am assuming when you mention Iowa there you mean white liberals who live in Iowa and not that Iowa is a liberal state itself as it is quite the opposite really.

Inquitus

I am back in Ireland after a couple of weeks in the US and haven't had my wall to wall US Primary coverage for a few days, plus I have been focusing on our own electoral mess, anything changed since late last week to indicate Trump will do anything other than sow up the Rep nomination tomorrow?

eire4

Akrasia wrote: »

MA is split between the liberal, highly educated urban centres, and the republican, poorly educated rural areas.

There are less than half a million registered republicans out of the 4 million registered voters in the state, so if Trump is popular amongst about 200 thousand voters out of a population of 4 million...

It's not convincing to say that Trump appeals to highly educated people, when he really only appeals to a very specific sub set of the most conservative people in the state (registered republicans).

In the GE, Trump would be utterly annihilated in MA

I would agree with you on that one in the presidential election Massachusetts is not in play at all. It is very much one of those states that is a shoe in on one side. In this case the Democratic side.

Lirange

Permabear wrote: »

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Elizabeth Warren, who we might hear from in future US elections stated it well...

There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody. ... You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for; you hired workers the rest of us paid to educate; you were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn't have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory, and hire someone to protect against this, because of the work the rest of us did. Now look, you built a factory and it turned into something terrific, or a great idea. God bless. Keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is, you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.

Permabear

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honru

A heads up for anyone eligible to vote, the Democrats Abroad primary begins tomorrow, and polling will take place in Dublin tomorrow from 4pm to 8pm. I believe there's another date set for Galway later in the week.

http://www.democratsabroad.org/tj/ireland_votes_presidential_primary_voting_in_dublin_all_us_citizens_eligible

Manach

Lirange wrote: »

Elizabeth Warren, who we might hear from in future US elections stated it well...

There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody. ... You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for; you hired workers the rest of us paid to educate; you were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn't have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory, and hire someone to protect against this, because of the work the rest of us did. Now look, you built a factory and it turned into something terrific, or a great idea. God bless. Keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is, you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.

The big chunk of it is so very gracious, if like the concept of "fair" it can be quantified, but fails to address both the widespread "waste heat" that such works both are prey to (Channeling Posner, Hayek, Sowell here). From political tithes to ineffective unions who donate to the right (ie progressive) causes,
> rail transportation still enjoys massive subsidies,
> US education is some of the worst in the developed world besides having so much money and so increasing politicised that home schooling is being seen as increasing viable,
> and as for kind words being said about the police that is practically unknown usually by a liberal politician hence the surprise and lack of response.

The concept of social contract has been in vogue since the Enlightenment - having its origins in attempt to persuad one that the Government knows best, the fons et origo of Big Statism. That is actually the people themselves who know how best to spend their money, to increase their wealth, what education courses to take and to protect the next generation is a concept which their liberal rheotoric seems incapable of grasping.

eire4

Permabear wrote: »

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and all that is being suggested is that the tax codes and rates get changed to ensure that those that have the most pay a fair share so that everyone can have the benefits of a supportive society that can offer dignity in basic needs of life and a path to a positive and productive life for all rather then what exists now.

Permabear

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Black Swan

Permabear wrote: »

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The greatest waste in taxpayer and government spending began with Ronald Reagan's arms race, where the federal deficit was first doubled by this pseudo-fiscal conservative's administration and Republican congress. And for all practical purposes the arms race continues, with administrations following Reagan's example to the present day.

No matter what party controlled the US presidency or congress, both Republican and Democrat administrations and their respective congresses have supported this massive, most expensive military in the world, 3 times PRC's budget, and more expensive than all the combined military budgets of the 25 EU nations. And no one listened to former 5-star general and Republican president Dwight D Eisenhower, back then or today, who warned the American people about the influence and power of the Military Industrial Complex. Odds are if you seriously run against the MIC today, you will not win president November 2016.

Overheal

Black Swan wrote: »

The greatest waste in taxpayer and government spending began with Ronald Reagan's arms race, where the federal deficit was first doubled by this pseudo-fiscal conservative's administration and Republican congress. And for all practical purposes the arms race continues, with administrations following Reagan's example to the present day.

The DOD and Both the Bush and Obama Whitehouses acknowledged this to a degree. There is the problem of congress. Constituents have jobs at tank factories, so even though the DOD has said please stop buying the Abrams, congress keeps saying No, you will have them. The average age of an active service tank is 3 years from what I have gathered. Same with overbuying C-17s, keeping the global hawk program going, and a bunch of other camouflage pork.

Black Swan

Why would White Supremacist and Ku Klux Klan Grand Wizard David Duke endorse Donald Trump for president 2016 this past weekend? Was it because of Trump's outspoken positions regarding the deportation of 11 million illegals, many of whom are Mexicans, and banning Muslims, positions the White Supremacists and KKK share with Trump?

When interviewed by CNN, Trump stated: ""Honestly, I don't know David Duke. I don't believe I've ever met him. I'm pretty sure I didn't meet him. And I just don't know anything about him." Well, Trump may not have met David Duke, but to claim that "I just don't know anything about him," is completely incredible to the extreme! I heard of Duke's outrageous racist positions in America way before coming to the States to attend university, especially when he was elected to public office while voicing these racist positions at the same time being a KKK Grand Wizard, which was a scandal all over the US news that such a person could get elected to high office. Once again Trump plays conveniently ignorant of US politics, yet runs for the highest office in US government. When are the American people going to wake up to how Trump is playing them for fools?

Overheal

Sanders has raised over $41.5m in February. $5m of that was today. Pretty impressive.

AbusesToilets

Permabear wrote: »

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Which offers a worse return on its investment, the 18% spent on the military or the 24% spent on healthcare? That's not taking into account Social Security, which accounts for another 24%. Figures taken from here: http://www.cbpp.org/research/policy-basics-where-do-our-federal-tax-dollars-go

While there is a real issue with military procurement at present, with palpably dysfunctional programs like the F-35 and LCS eating huge chunks of money, having a military force capable of enacting the policies established by successive governments is never going to be cheap. I'd argue that the benefit the US accrues from its military power is worth the money. I would take issue with the return from the money being spent, not the amount.

AbusesToilets

Overheal wrote: »

Sanders has raised over $41.5m in February. $5m of that was today. Pretty impressive.

Shame it's likely to be for naught.

Amazingfun

Black Swan wrote: »

Why would White Supremacist and Ku Klux Klan Grand Wizard David Duke endorse Donald Trump for president 2016 this past weekend? Was it because of Trump's outspoken positions regarding the deportation of 11 million illegals, many of whom are Mexicans, and banning Muslims, positions the White Supremacists and KKK share with Trump?

When interviewed by CNN, Trump stated: ""Honestly, I don't know David Duke. I don't believe I've ever met him. I'm pretty sure I didn't meet him. And I just don't know anything about him." Well, Trump may not have met David Duke, but to claim that "I just don't know anything about him," is completely incredible to the extreme! I heard of Duke's outrageous racist positions in America way before coming to the States to attend university, especially when he was elected to public office while voicing these racist positions at the same time being a KKK Grand Wizard, which was a scandal all over the US news that such a person could get elected to high office. Once again Trump plays conveniently ignorant of US politics, yet runs for the highest office in US government. When are the American people going to wake up to how Trump is playing them for fools?

Not that it matters, but Duke never endorsed Trump.

And Why should Trump be expected to explain why David Duke would vote for him anyways? Why should he care? David Duke can vote for whoever he wants! This whole thing is part of the last-dash GOP establishment attack on Trump, and they will use anyone to help do it.

For instance, here is an amazing piece of footage that goes right to the heart of matters -be sure to watch right to the end:

Overheal

You say that Duke doesn't endorse him, then post a video that explicitly reports he is.

Then, the anchor even comments on the irony of picking what was one of the few black members of a Trump rally to pull a soundbyte from...

Fr Tod Umptious

Black Swan wrote: »

Why would White Supremacist and Ku Klux Klan Grand Wizard David Duke endorse Donald Trump for president 2016 this past weekend? Was it because of Trump's outspoken positions regarding the deportation of 11 million illegals, many of whom are Mexicans, and banning Muslims, positions the White Supremacists and KKK share with Trump?

When interviewed by CNN, Trump stated: ""Honestly, I don't know David Duke. I don't believe I've ever met him. I'm pretty sure I didn't meet him. And I just don't know anything about him." Well, Trump may not have met David Duke, but to claim that "I just don't know anything about him," is completely incredible to the extreme! I heard of Duke's outrageous racist positions in America way before coming to the States to attend university, especially when he was elected to public office while voicing these racist positions at the same time being a KKK Grand Wizard, which was a scandal all over the US news that such a person could get elected to high office. Once again Trump plays conveniently ignorant of US politics, yet runs for the highest office in US government. When are the American people going to wake up to how Trump is playing them for fools?

A bit like the sports person who is doing poorly is going to tell you that they don't read the paper, Trump is going to say as little as possible about Duke.

Because he is smart enough to know that anything he does say will be dissected and analysed way beyond what is important.