2016 US Presidential Race - Mod Warning in OP

Amazingfun

Wow, Cruz takes OK as well, dammit. Funny though, some are claiming it's better for Trump to have Cruz force Rubio out, then have a two way run between them. It's above my paygrade, but interesting analysis anyhow!

XR3i

supposdly donald trump is going to construct a wall around his golf course in the west,

200.000 tonnes of stone

thats 10,000 truck loads

the wall will be built in dry stone fashion,

be a handy number if a person could get the start there

AbusesToilets

Where now for the Sanders supporters?

am i bovvered

Trump is now starting to change the message, my money says he will be the next US president, a clever man selling simple solutions.

Akrasia

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Where now for the Sanders supporters?

He did more or less as he expected to do. Won 4 and MA was essentially a tie.

Akrasia

am i bovvered wrote: »

Trump is now starting to change the message, my money says he will be the next US president, a clever man selling simple solutions.

I think Trump may be in a bit of trouble after super Tuesday

He lost in 4 states, and he didn't win the majority of delegates.

When candidates drop out, those delegates are transfered to a new candidate and I don't see the other candidates endorsing Trump and transferring their delegates to him.

Trump did very poorly amongst the undecided voters. He has a hard core support who love him, but there is also a hard core anti-Trump sentiment, and the undecided appear to be opting for other candidates

Akrasia

The Democrat primaries are busy for the next two weeks

991 delegates are up for grabs




Mar 5
Kansas · 33 delegates
Louisiana · 51 delegates
Nebraska · 25 delegates

Mar 6
Maine · 25 delegates

Mar 8
Michigan · 130 delegates
Mississippi · 36 delegates

Mar 15
Florida · 214 delegates
Illinois · 156 delegates
Missouri · 71 delegates
North Carolina · 107 delegates
Ohio · 143 delegates

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

He did more or less as he expected to do. Won 4 and MA was essentially a tie.

Yup, and what was expected wasn't nearly enough.

Akrasia

Deleted User wrote: »

Yup, and what was expected wasn't nearly enough.

He is in big trouble, but he's not totally ruled out yet

Hillary seems to have decided that the best way to beat Sanders is to not give him any publicity and last night she aimed her attacks at the republicans. They're likely to respond with attacks of their own.

Sanders refuses to engage in negative campaigning, but Trump's not shy of that kind of thing, so if he goes on an attack run against Clinton, it could boost Bernie, but he needs to find a way to get his name and message in the press, and the media are not cooperating with that at all.

Tar.Aldarion

Republicans hating on Clinton in Oklahoma is what swung that state for him so that could be true. Clinton way ahead as expected but he's still got a chance.

Akrasia

Tar.Aldarion wrote: »

Republicans hating on Clinton in Oklahoma is what swung that state for him so that could be true. Clinton way ahead as expected but he's still got a chance.

I've been thinking about it a bit more. Hillary is strongest in the southern red states that the dems aren't going to win in the GE anyway

Sanders is strongest in the traditionally democrat blue states and he is polling very well in some of the key swing states like New Hampshire and Ohio

The timings of the primaries are strongly weighted towards Hillary at the start, but Sanders should finish a lot stronger than Clinton. If he can just cling on and keep within striking distance, if he dominates Clinton in the primaries closest to the convention, some of those super delegates might feel pressure to switch their support to Sanders

Clinton has momentum at the start, and this might put her into an insurmountable lead, but you never know what will happen if Sanders starts racking up big wins in latter stages.

The latest polls show that both Clinton and Sanders would likely dominate against Trump, Sanders is a stronger GE candidate against Rubio or Cruz where he is projected to win big, while Hillary is neck and neck

If Trump starts to falter, the democrat convention might be interesting if they have to choose between a candidate that looks likely to win a GE, versus a candidate who is in for a scrap to the wire in November

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/01/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-poll/

Permabear

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JPNelsforearm

Sanders is essentially the Democrats version of Ron Paul, college age favourite, principled, but ultimately, an old man destined for failure because he doesnt have it in him to go for his rivals jugular in lieu of laying out his beliefs.

Amazing that people still think Bernie has any chance.

Also Hillary is going after the Republicans because she has the nomination sorted, not as some masterful tactic to beat Sanders, that's already done.

oscarBravo

JPNelsforearm wrote: »

...destined for failure because he doesnt have it in him to go for his rivals jugular in lieu of laying out his beliefs.

Yay democracy.

Permabear

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timmyntc

JPNelsforearm wrote: »

Sanders is essentially the Democrats version of Ron Paul, college age favourite, principled, but ultimately, an old man destined for failure because he doesnt have it in him to go for his rivals jugular in lieu of laying out his beliefs.

Agreed. Principles or not, you have to play the game to even get a chance to change things

Blatter

Can anyone explain why Cruz is said to be Trump's main rival in pretty much all media reports (particularly UK, such as the BBC) when his odds of being the nominee are ~20/1 on betfair and Rubio is ~7/1?

I've been monitoring the odds for several weeks now and Rubio has always been well ahead of Cruz but this doesn't seem to be reflected in the media?

K-9

Might be because Rubio is seen as the mainstream or establishment Republican choice. Hard to see how he has a chance at this stage.

Akrasia

Deleted User wrote: »

Amazing that people still think Bernie has any chance.

Hillary has a lead now, but she also had the wind at her back. Many of the states where she was strongest have voted. Many of the states where Sanders is strongest vote at the end.

15 states out of 35 have voted. Sanders has won 5, Hillary has won 8 and two were effectively tied.(Iowa and MA)

If you ignore the super delegates (and we should because they're not committed yet, Hillary's lead is about 200 delegates out of a target of 2138

If Sanders can close the gap over the course of the remaining 35 states with 3/4 of the delegates yet to be allocated then those super-delegates would be taking a massive risk by supporting Clinton over the wishes of the voters

Tar.Aldarion

Super delegates will not go against popular vote, would be suicidal. They are pointless.

AbusesToilets

Sanders only hope realistically is if Clinton is indited by the Justice Department, which isn't an impossibility but a slim one.

Permabear

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Christy42

Permabear wrote: »

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You think that minorities and the middle classes would pick Trump over Sanders? If it came down to those two then they would generally fall in behind the Sanders campaign as part of an anyone but Trump vote.

JPNelsforearm

oscarBravo wrote: »

Yay democracy.

Its the reality, and always has been that way.

Jefferson's camp accused President Adams of having a "hideous hermaphroditical character, which has neither the force and firmness of a man, nor the gentleness and sensibility of a woman."

In return, Adams' men called Vice President Jefferson "a mean-spirited, low-lived fellow, the son of a half-breed Indian squaw, sired by a Virginia mulatto father."

As the slurs piled on, Adams was labeled a fool, a hypocrite, a criminal, and a tyrant, while Jefferson was branded a weakling, an atheist, a libertine, and a coward.

As Trump would say, with Hillary, there is a lot to work with, Sanders may be principled, but its a losers position

Akrasia

Permabear wrote: »

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The polls have been very consistent so far, Sanders is much more likely to beat Trump, Rubio and Cruz than Clinton is.

Clinton has a very high disapproval rating, and that's only going to get higher as the republicans concentrate their attacks on her foreign policy record, her record on accepting donations from corporate interests, her flip flopping and her untrustworthiness (she says whatever she thinks people want to hear)

Permabear

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Colonialboy

Hilary sure is spending alot of money in comparison to the other candidates on both sides. The only one who came near to her is Jeb Bush.
Its amazing how well Trump is doing considering how little he has spent. Hilarys spent more PAC money than Trump has raised for his whole campaign.

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

Hillary has a lead now, but she also had the wind at her back. Many of the states where she was strongest have voted. Many of the states where Sanders is strongest vote at the end.

What does the wind at her back mean exactly? That she had a lead and that gave her an advantage? If so surely her winning yesterday gives her an even bigger advantage going forward?

15 states out of 35 have voted. Sanders has won 5, Hillary has won 8 and two were effectively tied.(Iowa and MA)

15/50. It'll be 19/50 before the week is up and Hillary will have won at least 11/50 then.

If you ignore the super delegates (and we should because they're not committed yet, Hillary's lead is about 200 delegates out of a target of 2138

Target is 2383. So far Hillary has 536 to 393. Since we're not counting superdelegates at all (ridiculous but I'll go with it) we can subtract 712/2 = 356 from the target leaving it at 2027. So Hillary is currently at 26.4% of the total required while Bernie is at 19.3% of the total required. Kansas, Louisiana and Nebraska vote on Friday with 109 up for grabs, will likely split roughly 65-45 for Hillary (at least) while Maine vote on Saturday with 25 up for grabs so even an 80-20 split there for Sanders will only make up for his losses the day before assuming Hillary has a poor showing on Friday.
Then it's Michigan and Mississippi. Mississipi (36) will go massively for Hillary (likely she'll hit 30) while Michigan if it goes 60/40 for Sanders (he'd be doing well) would be 75-55 in delegates, again not making up for Mississippi.
Then on to Florida (214), Illinois (156), Missouri (71), North Carolina (107) and Ohio (143). Missouri and North Carolina will go big for Hillary. Let's say she wins them 100-78 (which is less than she's likely to get. Then Illinois where the last poll has her +19 so we'll say 90-66. Then Florida where she's up 60-30 so we'll give her 130-84. Finally Ohio where she's up by 10-20 so we'll say 80-63.

All that would leave Hillary on 1091, Sanders on 830 and that's being very generous to Sanders based on current polling. Hillary would be halfway there with the wind at her back. Sanders would then have to win ~1200/2200 of the remaining delegates, or 55%. Where's that momentum going to come from?
After the states I mentioned are the following
Arizona?
Idaho?
Utah(Clinton +7)
Alaska(Clinton +3)
Hawaii?
Washington?
Wisconsin(Dead Heat)
New York(Clinton+21)
Connecticut?(Clinton+10-20 last year)
Pennsylvania(Clinton+20)
Delaware?
Maryland(Clinton+30)
Rhode Island(Clinton+9)
Indiana?
West Virginia(Sanders+28)
Kentucky?
Oregon?

Can't see many places for Sanders to make it up there, or am I missing something?

Then it's the last big day

California?
Montana?
New Jersey(Clinton+20-30)
New Mexico?
North Dakota?
South Dakota?

Long story short, unless Hillary does something incredibly stupid in front of some cameras she has the nomination sewn up. I would have loved to see Sanders getting the nod but it's delusional to think he has a chance other than a seriously calamity befalling Hillary.

If Sanders can close the gap over the course of the remaining 35 states with 3/4 of the delegates yet to be allocated then those super-delegates would be taking a massive risk by supporting Clinton over the wishes of the voters

If I can enter the race and win the remaining delegates then I would win the nomination. There's about the same likelihood.

Tar.Aldarion wrote: »

Super delegates will not go against popular vote, would be suicidal. They are pointless.

Popular vote in percentage or in delegate terms?