2016 US Presidential Race - Mod Warning in OP

LuckyLloyd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hS2Y8GYf-So

Meanwhile the Libertarian Party is a joke shop, Gary Johnson excepted. God bless you if you can stomach this. My favourite bit is John McAfee choosing that picture of himself to present for the purposes of the nomination.

colossus-x

Inquitus wrote: »

On a side note, Trump's steaks look great.

Tuesday will be a real key night in the race, it could seal the deal for Trump, it's likely to be the end of Rubio, could keep Kasich alive to plot a path to convention trickery.

Trump got 45min of primetime coverage on all the major news networks live last night while they ignored Clinton, Kasich and Sander's speechs, the reason the guy has to spend bugger all and is winning big is because he is Box Office, hard for the rest to complete against Wall to Wall Trump.

Yeah Tuesday is the last big one isn't it? Trump is sensational so not surprising the news networks are focusing on him, for their ratings. Trumps sensationalism is totally going again Sanders to Clinton's advantage, with his amusing faux presidential like news conferences. I haven't heard anyone suggest Sanders could win Florida, so I think It's sown up for Clinton on Tuesday also.

LuckyLloyd

Presidential ticket Party Ballot access % of voters seeing name on ballot Votes Percentage
Obama / Biden Democratic 50 + DC 100% 65,915,796 51.19
Romney / Ryan Republican 50 + DC 100% 60,933,500 47.32
Johnson / Gray Libertarian 48 + DC 95.1% 1,275,951 0.99
Stein / Honkala Green 36 + DC 83.1% 469,628 0.36
Goode / Clymer Constitution 26 49.9% 122,388 0.10
Anderson / Rodriguez Justice 15 28.1% 43,018 0.03
Lindsay / Osorio Socialism & Liberation 13 28.6% 7,791 0.006

Ballot Access in 2012

Magnate

eire4 wrote: »

No doubt about it nobody saw Sanders winning Michigan last night.

Ahem

Magnate wrote: »

After a decisive victory in Maine, endorsement by former Michigan senator Don Riegle and latest polls showing him only down by 5 there, I think he can squeeze a victory out of it and ride the momentum train from there.

But in fairness the demographics and open primary were definitely in his favour. Over a third of voters were independents and more than 7/10 voted for Bernie. Hopefully he does well next Tuesday. Put a good amount down on 20/1 so lets see if it pays off.

I think the grassroots effort over on r/sandersforpresident is probably the best way to keep informed with what's happening on the ground. There's other factors that the polls just can't take into account. A lot of Michigan canvassers a were very confident about a win judging by the feedback they were getting. Even things like the favourable weather and spring break led to an increased youth turnout which the pundits never saw coming.

eire4

Black Swan wrote: »

Someone earlier had suggested that Trump would gain Sanders voters if the Dems did not select Sanders, which I felt was highly improbable given that the Sanders political platform was against the concentration of wealth by a tiny few multi-millionaires and billionaires like wealthy Trump. Consequently, if Sanders is not nominated, then I would suspect that many of those Sanders voters will stay home and not vote for Hillary Clinton or Trump.

I think you have it spot on there. Or they may vote for another candidate like Jill Stein of the Green Party. Either way Sanders voters are not going to vote for a billionaire in any kind of numbers.

eire4

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Nope. He simply won't get on the ballot in the vast majority of states at that point. Bloomberg announced he wasn't running this week because it is decision time for any independent candidate - you would have to get your legal team engaged NOW to get widespread ballot access for the presidency.

He might still run in some fashion by trying to piggy back on a smaller party with some ballot access already in place or advocate write ins from his supporters but he wouldn't be winning any states imo.

This is ridiculous of course - but that's the way the two parties have the system locked up with ballot laws. They make it as difficult as possible to run third party or independent.

A very good example of how corrupted the 2 part cartel on power in the US is.

Black Swan

The Trump University scandal was airing today on KTLA telly reported by regular columnist David Lazarus. It was a follow-up on the Trump University questions asked by Megyn Kelly during the last GOP debate hosted by Fox News. Kelly asked Trump about students that were suing to get their money back after Trump University got a Better Business Bureau rating grade of D-minus in 2010. There is also a $40 million lawsuit filed against Trump University by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman alleging Trump University had been designed to get students to spend “thousands of dollars they didn’t have for lessons they never got.”

Trump then claimed during the Fox News debate that Trump University had an A grade, and then produced a faxed document from BBB to the debate moderators as proof. The BBB stated yesterday that they did NOT send such a document to Trump during the Fox debate. Who to believe, Trump or the nation's Better Business Bureau?

I never heard of Trump University until it came up in scandal. The "University" title was obviously a sales gimmick designed by Trump to offer foreclosed property seminars (i.e., his lesson being an elaboration of the obvious: buy low, sell high). In any case, Trump University FAILED, has been sued, and no longer exists today except on paper (and paper not supplied by BBB during the debate).

Of course this mini-scandal gives Trump more news, and to paraphrase "King Fish" former Louisiana governor and US Senator Huey Long: Good news is the best news, bad news (like Trump University) is 2nd best news, and no news is bad news for a politician. In other words, the more good and bad news Trump gets, the greater likelihood he will be nominated by the GOP and be elected president November 2016.

eire4

Magnate wrote: »

Ahem



But in fairness the demographics and open primary were definitely in his favour. Over a third of voters were independents and more than 7/10 voted for Bernie. Hopefully he does well next Tuesday. Put a good amount down on 20/1 so lets see if it pays off.

I think the grassroots effort over on r/sandersforpresident is probably the best way to keep informed with what's happening on the ground. There's other factors that the polls just can't take into account. A lot of Michigan canvassers a were very confident about a win judging by the feedback they were getting. Even things like the favourable weather and spring break led to an increased youth turnout which the pundits never saw coming.

Hahah good on you. Almost nobody say Sanders winning Michigan. I stand corrected.
I think he needs to win 1 of the 3 midweatern states next Tuesday to stay alive. If he wins 2 then he has kept himself in the hunt given the makeup of the states to come.

Akrasia

eire4 wrote: »

Hahah good on you. Almost nobody say Sanders winning Michigan. I stand corrected.
I think he needs to win 1 of the 3 midweatern states next Tuesday to stay alive. If he wins 2 then he has kept himself in the hunt given the makeup of the states to come.

I think he'll do well in Ohio and illinois. Sanders needs to be hire Jimmy McGill to sweet talk the elderly voters in Florida

K-9

Black Swan wrote: »

Someone earlier had suggested that Trump would gain Sanders voters if the Dems did not select Sanders, which I felt was highly improbable given that the Sanders political platform was against the concentration of wealth by a tiny few multi-millionaires and billionaires like wealthy Trump. Consequently, if Sanders is not nominated, then I would suspect that many of those Sanders voters will stay home and not vote for Hillary Clinton or Trump.

I certainly wouldn't dismiss it. People can make strange voting decisions, Irish people supporting Trump despite his strong pronouncements on Pfizer etc.

Moderate Republicans will have a similar decision to make about Trump and may abstain as well so that may end up cancelling each other out.

colossus-x

Black Swan wrote: »

Someone earlier had suggested that Trump would gain Sanders voters if the Dems did not select Sanders, which I felt was highly improbable given that the Sanders political platform was against the concentration of wealth by a tiny few multi-millionaires and billionaires like wealthy Trump. Consequently, if Sanders is not nominated, then I would suspect that many of those Sanders voters will stay home and not vote for Hillary Clinton or Trump.[/QUOTE]

This scenario is highly unlikely. There is a fervour around this particular presidential campaign where I expect high turn-outs. The idea that some voters would not vote after this highly-charged campaign doesn't ring true.

All the Sanders supporters will flip over to Clinton in a heartbeat, and go on to vote for her, when Trump is the dire alternative.

Black Swan

K-9 wrote: »

I certainly wouldn't dismiss it. People can make strange voting decisions...

When Trump said "Torture works," and "much worse," that was the final straw for me and my friends. If Trump truly believes that "torture works," then he is no better than the barbaric terrorists and is operating at their level. And if elected president Trump may implement "torture works" US policies like former Vice President Dick Cheney, who also believed "torture works." On the other hand, if Trump does not believe "Torture works," after saying so several times, then he is no more than a charlatan playing to the fear and anger of Gustave Le Bon's "The Crowd," ultimately making fools of his supporters and prospective voters.

A vote for Trump, is a vote for torture.

Billy86

Black Swan wrote: »

When Trump said "Torture works," and "worse," that was the final straw for me and my friends. If Trump truly believes that "torture works," then he is no better than the barbaric terrorists and is operating at their level. And if elected president Trump may implement "torture works" US policies like former Vice President Dick Cheney, who also believed "torture works." On the other hand, if Trump does not believe "Torture works," after saying so several times, then he is no more than a charlatan playing to the fear and anger of Gustave Le Bon's "The Crowd," ultimately making fools of his supporters and prospective voters.

A vote for Trump, is a vote for torture.

Doesn't matter, Trumps been making fools of his own supporters from early on - he himself said something along the lines of he could shoot a man for no reason in the street and his voters would defend him for it. He basically called them gullible, mindless idiots to their faces and they jumped up and down clapping with joy in response. We're into Mad Max levels of demagoguery and all because some people want the White House to be the home of the new Modern Family, Married with Children, etc.

The one thing he does shy away from though, and I'm surprised to see other politicians not going alll out on it, is the number of his businesses that he has bankrupted for his own personal gain. Given all his talk of jobs, the economy and his/his supporters use of his business career as a track record in absence of real time in politics, it's incredibly low hanging fruit that nobody seems to want to go for.

Black Swan

colossus-x wrote: »

All the Sanders supporters will flip over to Clinton in a heartbeat, and go on to vote for her, when Trump is the dire alternative.

You may be right, then again, depending upon whom the Dems nominate for president, we shall see 8 November 2016.

Magnate

colossus-x wrote: »

All the Sanders supporters will flip over to Clinton in a heartbeat, and go on to vote for her, when Trump is the dire alternative.

66% of them in the latest poll.

LuckyLloyd

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Nope. He simply won't get on the ballot in the vast majority of states at that point. Bloomberg announced he wasn't running this week because it is decision time for any independent candidate - you would have to get your legal team engaged NOW to get widespread ballot access for the presidency.

He might still run in some fashion by trying to piggy back on a smaller party with some ballot access already in place or advocate write ins from his supporters but he wouldn't be winning any states imo.

This is ridiculous of course - but that's the way the two parties have the system locked up with ballot laws. They make it as difficult as possible to run third party or independent.

How so? Explain, please.
The RNC is 18-21 July.
There's 4 states have deadlines before that, and luck to them not having a law-suit or at least a write-in alternative. If the GOP screw him over he'll screw them over.

LuckyLloyd

Deleted User wrote: »

How so? Explain, please.
The RNC is 18-21 July.
There's 4 states have deadlines before that, and luck to them not having a law-suit or at least a write-in alternative. If the GOP screw him over he'll screw them over.

i can't explain it as I don't understand the ballot laws on a state by state level. All I know is smart people are saying that it will be extremely difficult for him to get on many ballot papers if he leaves it as late as post GOP Convention to try and run Independent. Established parties like the Libertarian Party couldn't get on the ballot in two states in 2012, and the Greens couldn't get on 14 Ballots. And they're working on it the whole time.

Akrasia

Trump is actually hilarious

He responded to the Romney accusations about his failed businesses, by holding a press conferance where he claims that all of his businesses are doing great

Except that he blatantly lied the whole way through

He said that his 'Trump Steaks' business was still going strong, and he had a pile of steaks on the table beside him to prove it, except that they weren't Trump steaks, they were just some meat he bought

A reporter present at Trump's press conference notes that the steaks on the table were not actually a Trump brand, but appear, ironically, to have come from a company named "Bush Brothers."
http://www.npr.org/2016/03/09/469775355/trump-doesnt-own-most-of-the-products-he-pitched-last-night

Then he tries to defend his 'Trump magazine' by bringing out a magazine called 'The Jewel of Palm Beach' which is an annual publication that he pays to get printed and circulated around his hotels. Trump doesn't own the publisher or sell the magazine... unlike the actual 'Trump Magazine' which went bankrupt in 2009

He then implies that he sold his airline and got 'a great deal' despite the fact that he sold it on the verge of bankruptcy and he lost a fortune.

Next, in order to defend the failure of 'Trump Vodka' he points to a table of wine and said 'this is the biggest winery on the east coast, I own it, 100%'
Except he doesn't.

The winery's website says something different: "Trump Winery is a registered trade name of Eric Trump Wine Manufacturing LLC, which is not owned, managed or affiliated with Donald J. Trump, The Trump Organization or any of their affiliates.
http://www.npr.org/2016/03/09/469775355/trump-doesnt-own-most-of-the-products-he-pitched-last-night

And finally, he talks about 'Trump Water' which is a bottled water he supplies to his own hotels and casinos, he implies that it's a small private water company' but he doesn't own it, he just pays some bottling company to put a trump sticker on the label. He pays for another company to provide him with marketing materials, and then claims he runs a successful water company....

The guy is a shameless pathological liar. And anyone who believes him needs to have their head examined

Fr Tod Umptious

Akrasia wrote: »

Trump is actually hilarious

He responded to the Romney accusations about his failed businesses, by holding a press conferance where he claims that all of his businesses are doing great

Except that he blatantly lied the whole way through

He said that his 'Trump Steaks' business was still going strong, and he had a pile of steaks on the table beside him to prove it, except that they weren't Trump steaks, they were just some meat he bought



Then he tries to defend his 'Trump magazine' by bringing out a magazine called 'The Jewel of Palm Beach' which is an annual publication that he pays to get printed and circulated around his hotels. Trump doesn't own the publisher or sell the magazine... unlike the actual 'Trump Magazine' which went bankrupt in 2009

He then implies that he sold his airline and got 'a great deal' despite the fact that he sold it on the verge of bankruptcy and he lost a fortune.

Next, in order to defend the failure of 'Trump Vodka' he points to a table of wine and said 'this is the biggest winery on the east coast, I own it, 100%'
Except he doesn't.


And finally, he talks about 'Trump Water' which is a bottled water he supplies to his own hotels and casinos, he implies that it's a small private water company' but he doesn't own it, he just pays some bottling company to put a trump sticker on the label. He pays for another company to provide him with marketing materials, and then claims he runs a successful water company....

The guy is a shameless pathological liar. And anyone who believes him needs to have their head examined

Attacking Trump over his failed companies is just stupid.

The guy is obviously a successful business man.

Its like saying Tom Brady is not a good QB because he had a off day.

Billy86

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Attacking Trump over his failed companies is just stupid.

The guy is obviously a successful business man.

Its like saying Tom Brady is not a good QB because he had a off day.

Or also like if Jay Cutler were to try and pass himself off as Tom Brady.

Christy42

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Attacking Trump over his failed companies is just stupid.

The guy is obviously a successful business man.

Its like saying Tom Brady is not a good QB because he had a off day.

That is like a load of failed seasons. A company doesn't go bust overnight even if it looks like it. If Tom Brady ever had that then he would be a bad QB. Since the only time the Pats have not been to the play offs is when he was injured I don't think he has had too many of them.

Also these are companies with employees and the like. Whats the bet that they didn't get a chance to show their work for these multiple failed companies. Trump got all these second chances because he is from a rich family. There are plenty of successful business men who don't have such a long list of failures.

Brian?

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Attacking Trump over his failed companies is just stupid.

The guy is obviously a successful business man.

Its like saying Tom Brady is not a good QB because he had a off day.

I wouldn't mind his failed companies if he simply owned up to the failures. Instead he lies, bare faced, about them and shouts about his success.

JPNelsforearm

Brian? wrote: »

I wouldn't mind his failed companies if he simply owned up to the failures. Instead he lies, bare faced, about them and shouts about his success.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dY77j6uBHI

Trumps mis-characterisation of his business success pales...

Akrasia

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Attacking Trump over his failed companies is just stupid.

The guy is obviously a successful business man.

Its like saying Tom Brady is not a good QB because he had a off day.

Romney attacked his failed companies but Trump decided himself to voluntarily stand in front of the worlds media and lie directly to them in a way that guaranteed he would be found out.

He's like the guy who crashes into your parked car while you're standing right there watching him, and then gets out and denies it, and says those dents were there before he got there.

It's takes a certain kind of person to do something like this and he's either a psychopath, or it's the most elaborate practical joke in history.

At this stage, I would be only mildly surprised if I found out that Trump has been working with Sacha Baron Cohen all along and this is just one big prank.

That would genuinely be the greatest movie ever made. btw

Billy86

JPNelsforearm wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dY77j6uBHI

Trumps mis-characterisation of his business success pales...

That has what exactly to do with Trump's business failures, given he is running for president on the platform of being a businessman?

jobbridge4life

Trumps entire campaign is a fiction. Nearly every position he has ever held, he has also held the opposite opinion. Even if you are a mexican-hating, torture loving, protectionist promoter how can you vote for him? Why would you?

Billy86

jobbridge4life wrote: »

Trumps entire campaign is a fiction. Nearly every position he has ever held, he has also held the opposite opinion. Even if you are a mexican-hating, torture loving, protectionist promoter how can you vote for him? Why would you?

Dude.

Sitcom.

White House.

Who gives a sh*t, it'd be like, soooooooooooooooooooo worth it, right!?!?

Or, something. He won't win the presidential election, but I would love to see the world in 2022 if he did... and how those same voters would feel. "The billionaire CEO guy we believed was more honest and open than career politicians lied to us!! HE LIED TO US!! WHO COULD HAVE SEEN THIS COMING!?!?" :pac:

Brian?

JPNelsforearm wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dY77j6uBHI

Trumps mis-characterisation of his business success pales...

I'm not even going to watch that video. You know why? It's completely irrelevant to whether Trump is a liar or not.


Edit: Trump doesn't "mis characterise", he lies.

Inquitus

jobbridge4life wrote: »

Trumps entire campaign is a fiction. Nearly every position he has ever held, he has also held the opposite opinion. Even if you are a mexican-hating, torture loving, protectionist promoter how can you vote for him? Why would you?

He's going to make America Great again and he's going to build a wall, and the genius part, the Mexicans are going to pay for it. He's going to fix healthcare by removing state lines and opening up competition.

I think that pretty much summarises all of the policy I've heard come out of his mouth the past few months.

Billy86

Inquitus wrote: »

He's going to make America Great again and he's going to build a wall, and the genius part, the Mexicans are going to pay for it. He's going to fix healthcare by removing state lines and opening up competition.

I think that pretty much summarises all of the policy I've heard come out of his mouth the past few months.

"Make America Great Again" -- even less thinly veiled than Nixon's Southern Strategy and the "silent majority".