2016 US Presidential Race - Mod Warning in OP

K-9

SimonTemplar wrote: »

It seems Clinton has won Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio. If so, does she have an insurmountable lead over Saunders?

Bit like Wenger or Peligrini saying it isn't over until it is mathematically impossible in the Premier League!

The momentum needs to be with Sanders.

K-9

Palin kind of appeals to those who'd vote Trump anyway. Hard to see how picking her as VP on the card would benefit Trump.

Trump could pick Obama as VP and his supporters would rationalise it! Seriously, Rubio has increasingly grown disillusioned with the whole thing, as has Kasich.

Christie gives some governance street cred.

embraer170

Kasich takes Ohio.

Now what can he do with that?

Black Swan

K-9 wrote: »

Hard to see how picking her as VP on the card would benefit Trump.

Doubtful Trump would pick Palin with her losing record with McCain as his VP running mate too, but perhaps she has been promised a highly visible cabinet post like Secretary of State (per my post above)?

BoJack Horseman

embraer170 wrote: »

Now what can he do with that?

Be the best governor of Ohio he can be.

But probably not much else.

Black Swan

NBC news telly is announcing at this moment that Hillary Clinton has won Florida over Sanders, and that Rubio lost his home state to Trump. Rubio quits presidential race, so now we are down to 3 Republican candidates and 2 Democrats.

People ready to accept Bernie's done now?

MightyMandarin

Deleted User wrote: »

People ready to accept Bernie's done now?

He's been done for a while, and I'm a fan of his. What his supporters do now is a mystery but one thing's for sure, I will not be supporting Hillary. I honestly don't think she's any better than Trump, after some of sh*t she's pulled and lies she's spewed in the past few months.

Overheal

Deleted User wrote: »

People ready to accept Bernie's done now?

Hardly.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rep-alan-grayson/democratic-presidential-primary-2_b_9459766.html

There are two Democratic presidential primaries. One is almost over. The other is about to begin.

The first Democratic presidential primary runs from Feb. 1 to March 15. All 11 "Old South" states vote in that primary. We have two states left to go, but Hillary Clinton has won every one of the other nine, by an average of 43 points.

Outside those "Old South" states, 12 other states also have voted. Bernie Sanders has won nine of those races, Hillary Clinton has won only two, and there has been one tie (Iowa). The average result in those 12 states has been a Sanders win by just under 20 points.

The net effect of this (Hillary winning the "Old South" by 43 points, Bernie winning everywhere else by 20 points) is a Clinton lead among pledged delegates of 223 (specifically, 775 to 552).

Which brings us to the second Democratic presidential primary: Democratic Presidential Primary 2.0. It runs from March 16 through June 7. It includes none of the "Old South" states, because they all will have already voted. It includes all of the Pacific states, and all of the "Mountain" states except Colorado and Nevada (which already voted). The biggest prizes are California (545 delegates), New York (291) and Pennsylvania (210).

Democratic presidential primary 2.0 elects a total of 2033 pledged delegates. If Bernie Sanders wins those races (and delegates) by the same 60-40 margin that he has amassed in primaries and caucuses outside the "Old South" to date, then that will give him an advantage of 407 pledged delegates. That is more -- far more -- than the current Clinton margin of 223.

Almost 700 pledged delegates are chosen on June 7 alone. It seems unlikely that either candidate will accumulate a margin of 700 pledged delegates before then. So this one may come down to the wire.

Fasten your seat belts. It's going to be a wild ride.

Courage,

Rep. Alan Grayson

The DNC Primary won't be settled until Convention.

But if you listen to the TV too much you may be fooled, given that they will blatantly ignore live streams of a Sanders speech and instead air "standing by for a Trump speech" segments. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/all-three-networks-ignored-bernie-sanders-speech-tuesday-night-promising-trump-would-be-speaking-soon_us_56e8bad1e4b0860f99daec81?

Amazingfun

Brilliant night for Trump, delighted! Waiting now biting nails on Missouri, didn't expect this State to be the stressful one keeping me from slumber

Hande hoche!

Deleted User wrote: »

People ready to accept Bernie's done now?

Expect his funding machine to go into overdrive. Very good night for both Clinton and Trump.

Colonialboy

Black Swan wrote: »

Sarah Palin endorsed Trump during January and now campaigns for him. She is popular with the Tea Party faction of the Republican party, and can sway many of their votes. What post has been promised for Palin in exchange for her labours? Heaven forbid she is made Secretary of State, given her record of quitting halfway through her 1st term as Alaska's governor (that "coincidentally" occurred during a bi-partisan investigation of her activities as governor, which promptly concluded after her resignation). Not only this, Secretary of State is a top position for the US government that is highly involved in international diplomacy, which Palin has zero experience. Palin didn't even have a US passport until before the 2008 McCain-Palin nomination. I can just imagine the reception she would get with her using profane "Punk-ass, little thuggery" type expressions with future protesters or foreign diplomats as the US Secretary of State.

Since first coming to prominence Sarah Palin has endorsed or publicly supported over 200 politicians running for various levels of office. In fact some analysis indicates she is one of the most successful at picking candidates who ultimately go on to win whatever office they are running for.
And even after all those endorsements what office has she taken - NONE.

Its what politicians do to keep in the limelight and get some media attention.
Giving endorsements is about all she can do now to keep her front and center .

Trumps already paid her back, she got lots of media attention. Job done move on for Sarah do a few road trips, speaking engagements etc .

In light of all that its a straw man arguement to postulate Palin is in line for Secretary of State cos of an endorsement.
More hysterical rantings thrown at Trump with very little basis if you ask me.

frostyjacks

A good day for Trump, delighted for him. It shows the ridiculously hysterical attacks on him aren't working. The comparisons to Hitler, especially from Jewish 'comedians' (trivialising their ancestors suffering), have failed. Who will they compare him to now? Bin Laden? Satan?

The Republican convention is shaping up to be a battle royale by all accounts.

Amazingfun

Did you see their latest offering? Probably helped his numbers go higher, these people never learn:

Published on Mar 13, 2016
Citizen Super PAC

Fund Here:
https://www.citizensuperpac.com/heil-trump

To have this video aired nationwide, please consider donating to the crowd-sourced Citizen Super PAC. The goal for this video is $10,000.

LuckyLloyd

Sanders has been dead for some time. Let go folks. His only relevance now is in terms of influencing Clinton's platform. He will not be the nominee.

MightyMandarin

MightyMandarin wrote: »

He's been done for a while, and I'm a fan of his. What his supporters do now is a mystery but one thing's for sure, I will not be supporting Hillary. I honestly don't think she's any better than Trump, after some of sh*t she's pulled and lies she's spewed in the past few months.

Same here.

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Sanders has been dead for some time. Let go folks. His only relevance now is in terms of influencing Clinton's platform. He will not be the nominee.

This thread is a perfect example of when people say "The left is as bad as the right" sometimes. They can be so blind in their beliefs.

B_Wayne

frostyjacks wrote: »

A good day for Trump, delighted for him. It shows the ridiculously hysterical attacks on him aren't working. The comparisons to Hitler, especially from Jewish 'comedians' (trivialising their ancestors suffering), have failed. Who will they compare him to now? Bin Laden? Satan?

The Republican convention is shaping up to be a battle royale by all accounts.

https://twitter.com/RyanLizza/status/709393554443997184

That was stated by one of Trump's speakers at his rally in last week. Trump has literally increased people's outward displays of racism. He would be a terror for a rights in a whole range of respects. He's called to even break the Geneva convention in terms of his torture policy.

I'm certain he will not be elected president but he's done a fine job at getting people to display the worst of society.

Overheal

Overheal wrote: »

Hardly.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rep-alan-grayson/democratic-presidential-primary-2_b_9459766.html

The DNC Primary won't be settled until Convention.

But if you listen to the TV too much you may be fooled, given that they will blatantly ignore live streams of a Sanders speech and instead air "standing by for a Trump speech" segments. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/all-three-networks-ignored-bernie-sanders-speech-tuesday-night-promising-trump-would-be-speaking-soon_us_56e8bad1e4b0860f99daec81?

Man you should really just seek out the numbers yourself. Before Super-Delegates it's about 1100-775 now. Meaning that to get to 2025 (majority of non-Super-Delegates) Sanders needs to win 1250-925 or about 58%. Illinois ain't the "Old South", he didn't win there. Florida he was destroyed. Hillary just needs a couple of big states and she's insurmountable. There's about 260 delegates up next week, if he can't win a majority of them will that be it?

Akrasia

Hande hoche! wrote: »

Expect his funding machine to go into overdrive. Very good night for both Clinton and Trump.

His funding machine, you mean the ordinary citizens of the U.S.?

Sanders had a bad night last night. He did beat the polls but no miracles were performed.

He's not going to give up as he is still not mathematically out of the race, but the gap is growing.

This will be a big blow to Sander's momentum. He had some favourable news coverage (and lots of biased coverage against him) but now there's going to be a chorus of media stating that his race is over and his only hope is to win really big in the remaining states.

Trump did well, it was a bad night for America.

Colonialboy

B_Wayne wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RyanLizza/status/709393554443997184

That was stated by one of Trump's speakers at his rally in last week. Trump has literally increased people's outward displays of racism. He would be a terror for a rights in a whole range of respects. He's called to even break the Geneva convention in terms of his torture policy.

I'm certain he will not be elected president but he's done a fine job at getting people to display the worst of society.

Its hardly breaking news that a pastor in the bible belt said someone 'has got to get Jesus' .

Colonialboy

Akrasia wrote: »

This will be a big blow to Sander's momentum. He had some favourable news coverage (and lots of biased coverage against him) but now there's going to be a chorus of media stating that his race is over and his only hope is to win really big in the remaining states.

Trump did well, it was a bad night for America.

Same could be said for Trump. only his supporters are smart enough to see through the media and establishments agenda and are voting for him anywyas.

A great night for America, a great night for democracy with another record turnout for the GOP.

Trump will anihilate Hilary when the go head to head and he will turn alot of her voters and even convince some GOP voters who said they will never vote for him.
Once Trump has the nomination in his back pocket he will tone down the rhetoric, donors will come flooding in and Trump will go to town on Hilary who has so many skeletons in her closet it will look like MJs Thriller video.

Akrasia

Colonialboy wrote: »

Same could be said for Trump. only his supporters are smart enough to see through the media and establishments agenda and are voting for him anywyas.

A great night for America, a great night for democracy with another record turnout for the GOP.

Trump will anihilate Hilary when the go head to head and he will turn alot of her voters and even convince some GOP voters who said they will never vote for him.
Once Trump has the nomination in his back pocket he will tone down the rhetoric, donors will come flooding in and Trump will go to town on Hilary who has so many skeletons in her closet it will look like MJs Thriller video.

The media is 'biased against Trump' by reporting what he actually says and covering everything he does live on breaking news, the media are biased against Sanders by ignoring him, and downplaying him at every opportunity.

Colonialboy

Akrasia wrote: »

The media is 'biased against Trump' by reporting what he actually says and covering everything he does live on breaking news, the media are biased against Sanders by ignoring him, and downplaying him at every opportunity.

not really, the media is not reporting everything he says , they are just reporting what they know their populist audience will react most too.

So for example if Trump says the US has a 59 billion dollar trade deficit with Mexico and in the same speech says he wants to stop illegal immigration..well the media will take an immigration soundbite and most peopel will bite that bait and run,tweet,post and talk about it.

But they arent getting the message of the 58 billion dollar trade deficit with Mexico. I suppose if they made an effort they could learn this stuff, but its probably easier for them to just read the sensationalist soundbite and form an opinion on that.

I reckon alot of Trumps supporters are actually delving deeper and as in the example above are aware of the trade deficit with Mexico and thats whats forming their opinion.
To some degree
Trump supporters base their vote on an understanding of broader socio,econimic and trade issues. (Remember Trump won the most votes from people with degrees demographic in Florida )
Trump detractors base their non-vote on a populist soundbite.

JPNelsforearm

I know she was probably referring to the air campaign vs boots on the ground, but still..... To say they didnt lose a single person is false. Libya was and is a disaster.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KSJWcRS0_0

RobertKK

I really believe this is Trump's election to lose, and the Republicans hierarchy should just accept him.
Look at Florida, a total wipeout for Rubio by Trump apart from his home county.

A Trump/Kasich ticket would be good. I am sure Chris Christie is hanging around hoping for it, but Kasich would be far better, and would give the Republicans a great chance of taking Ohio.

Ted Cruz would be an awful choice, talking last night how awful Trump was and how he is supportive of the Iran deal, and he (Cruz) would tear the deal up.
Would love to ask him if he is getting secretly funded by the Saudis...

I hate the mannerisms of Cruz when he is giving a speech. There is something about him that I just don't like, maybe he doesn't seem genuine, I actually think he has the most extreme views on the Republican side of things.
With Trump, it is clear to see he has played on fear, and like it or not the fear is real, and for good reason.
He knows the voters are not stupid, as some want to make out they are, we here in Europe has seen how what is illegal immigration from the Middle East and North Africa is posing all sorts of problems for Europe - from terrorism to not knowing who has entered our EU borders.
The voters in the US can see this, and why wouldn't people question illegal immigration and immigration policy in general.
I think Trump would go after Hillary in this regard, she voted for the invasion of Iraq, supported the downfall of dictators for what in the most part has been an absolute disaster apart from Tunisia, and which has given Europe the immigration crisis it now faces.

Sanders hasn't a hope unless Hillary has to be substituted, and Clinton like Cruz are just awful choices for president.
One can see how Trump becomes the choice for many.

Paleface

RobertKK wrote: »

I really believe this is Trump's election to lose, and the Republicans hierarchy should just accept him.
Look at Florida, a total wipeout for Rubio by Trump apart from his home county.

A Trump/Kasich ticket would be good. I am sure Chris Christie is hanging around hoping for it, but Kasich would be far better, and would give the Republicans a great chance of taking Ohio.

Ted Cruz would be an awful choice, talking last night how awful Trump was and how he is supportive of the Iran deal, and he (Cruz) would tear the deal up.
Would love to ask him if he is getting secretly funded by the Saudis...

I hate the mannerisms of Cruz when he is giving a speech. There is something about him that I just don't like, maybe he doesn't seem genuine, I actually think he has the most extreme views on the Republican side of things.
With Trump, it is clear to see he has played on fear, and like it or not the fear is real, and for good reason.
He knows the voters are not stupid, as some want to make out they are, we here in Europe has seen how what is illegal immigration from the Middle East and North Africa is posing all sorts of problems for Europe - from terrorism to not knowing who has entered our EU borders.
The voters in the US can see this, and why wouldn't people question illegal immigration and immigration policy in general.
I think Trump would go after Hillary in this regard, she voted for the invasion of Iraq, supported the downfall of dictators for what in the most part has been an absolute disaster apart from Tunisia, and which has given Europe the immigration crisis it now faces.

Sanders hasn't a hope unless Hillary has to be substituted, and Clinton like Cruz are just awful choices for president.
One can see how Trump becomes the choice for many.

I think your completely misinterpreting a candidates primary election form and how that will translate to a national election where independent voters actually decide who wins.

Sure Trump is walking away with the GOP primaries and will most likely get the nomination but when polled nationally against either Clinton or Sanders he stands to lose according to the latest polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/pres_general/

Paddy Power's current odds for the next POTUS are:

Clinton 2/5
Trump 5/2
Sanders 20/1
Kasich 20/1

KingBrian2

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Sanders has been dead for some time. Let go folks. His only relevance now is in terms of influencing Clinton's platform. He will not be the nominee.

He could be a person of significance he is leading the fight for the Social Democrats of America. Clinton or Trump get in they will have to negotiate and deal with Sanders supporters. He is also energising the Democratic base.

LuckyLloyd

KingBrian2 wrote: »

He could be a person of significance he is leading the fight for the Social Democrats of America. Clinton or Trump get in they will have to negotiate and deal with Sanders supporters. He is also energising the Democratic base.

How?

Did Obama negotiate with Clinton supporters?

His power is in terms of potential input into the Policy Platform that she espouses in her convention speech and programme for government. Maybe a cabinet position, etc.

Tar.Aldarion

his biggest thing is making Clinton assimilate his policies, he's dead in the water presidentially, unfortunately. This is why you bet on hillary at the bookies but donate to Bernie It always seemed Clinton would fall into the presidency no matter what she did to be honest.

Mjollnir

Colonialboy wrote: »

Trump supporters base their vote on an understanding of broader socio,econimic and trade issues.

A wishful assertion based on zero evidence.