2016 US Presidential Race - Mod Warning in OP

bnt

Nate Silver has some analysis of Trump's popularity, on Five Thirty Eight. Short version: while he's got some Favourables, they're outnumbered by the Unfavourables:

What’s going on? On Twitter yesterday, I likened Trump to the band Nickelback: disliked by most people but with a few very passionate admirers. The best contrast to Trump is Marco Rubio: like a “lite rock” radio station, he’s broadly acceptable but few people’s favorite. Rubio’s favorable ratings are much higher (56 percent) than The Donald’s, and his unfavorable ratings are much lower (16 percent). But only 6 percent of Republicans list Rubio as their first choice.

The Nickelback analogy isn’t perfect. As the Republican strategist Patrick Ruffini points out, the bulk of Trump’s support in polls isn’t necessarily coming from passionate Republicans but rather from “low-information voters” who may not turn out in Iowa and New Hampshire. That doesn’t mean none of Trump’s support is real, however. There’s another factor that helps him: He’s highly differentiated from the rest of the Republican pack.

PS: "low-information voters" is a euphemism for "stupid white people".

Overheal

nokia69 wrote: »

a Focus group in New Hampshire love The Donald



Donald Trump, man of the people :rolleyes:

"Washington Establishment, meet me at camera 3"



This is Jon Stewart's last week

BoJack Horseman

bnt wrote: »

PS: "low-information voters" is a euphemism for "stupid white people".

Is the 'stupid' part, or the 'white' part you find disagreeable?

20Cent

Ted Cruz cooks his bacon with a machine gun.
Wraps it around the barrel then fires for a while.
No seriously.
He even made a video of himself doing it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaZGaJrd3x8

Demonstrates his target constituency.

Overheal

20Cent wrote: »

Ted Cruz cooks his bacon with a machine gun.
Wraps it around the barrel then fires for a while.
No seriously.
He even made a video of himself doing it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaZGaJrd3x8

Demonstrates his target constituency.

If he was just any other redneck, this would be awesome. I can't fault him for having fun even though guns and bacon kill people

Shouldve put foil-bacon-foil though, unless you like gun residue/powder on your bacon. I will pass

20Cent

Overheal wrote: »

If he was just any other redneck, this would be awesome. I can't fault him for having fun even though guns and bacon kill people

Shouldve put foil-bacon-foil though, unless you like gun residue/powder on your bacon. I will pass

Watched the video again and he's actually using a rifle. So he doesn't know what a machine gun is or is lying about how he makes his bacon. Disturbing development either way.

Overheal

A gun is a machine but yeah

BoJack Horseman

Only upon the completion of a full fry can he have cred.

Otherwise, what would Putin & Jinping make of him?

alaimacerc

Overheal wrote: »

Shouldve put foil-bacon-foil though, unless you like gun residue/powder on your bacon. I will pass

It's all nitritey/nitratey goodness, right? Better -- if shorter -- living through the chemistry of oxidisation.

20Cent wrote: »

Watched the video again and he's actually using a rifle. So he doesn't know what a machine gun is or is lying about how he makes his bacon. Disturbing development either way.

Valid point, but a little farther that way lies the "assault rifles vs assault weapons" road of madness. My semantic twitch was about the word "making". Doesn't "making bacon" involve being either a meat processor or a pig?

alaimacerc

Amerika wrote: »

They do in Jeb Bush. It doesn't mean squat.

If hadn't considered Bush, I'd not have troubled to add the "non-toxic" qualifier. Though unless "abolish Medicare" is now considered "centrist", perhaps I needn't have bothered.

Mind your fingers on the sash, that Overton Window seems to be slamming shut rather quickly.

Amerika

Lots of talk recently of Joe Biden jumping in the race.

And no plans of a Democratic debate? Makes sense since it appears the Dems are having a coronation instead of a primary.

BoJack Horseman

Joe isn't going to run.

All the party election captains are already taken...
And at his age, he couldnt grab the tushes demanded of another Biden electoral run...... (several million give or take).

MightyMandarin

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Joe isn't going to run.

All the party election captains are already taken...
And at his age, he couldnt grab the tushes demanded of another Biden electoral run...... (several million give or take).

Yeah apparently he's talked about it with Obama who's told him he hasn't a chance of getting the nomination at this stage. Despite her poor polling, Hillary has soaked up all the major democrat donors and has the backing of most of the high ranking figures in the DNC. He's also run twice before and failed miserably.

Amerika wrote: »

And no plans of a Democratic debate? Makes sense since it appears the Dems are having a coronation instead of a primary.

Well I for one would prefer a coronation rather than the carnival the GOP seem to be having. Trump's antics aside, the constant 'one-upping' between candidates in the 'who can look the most conservative' competition is laughable. I know they're all vying to get in the Fox debate, but at the moment, the only one looking at all presidential seems to be Jeb Bush.

Overheal

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/627841345789558788




Can't fault him for that one.

Amerika

Overheal wrote: »

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/627841345789558788




Can't fault him for that one.

Why not? If you give credence to this, then one must agree only those with billions sitting in their personal bank accounts should run for POTUS. That would leave only a handful of people rich enough to run, and Trump as the only candidate in this election.

alaimacerc

Amerika wrote: »

If you give credence to this, then one must agree only those with billions sitting in their personal bank accounts should run for POTUS.

Sounds as if you and The Donald are locked in an arms race to extrapolate the most ludicrous conclusion from Citizens United. Not sure who's winning. Other, of course, than reductio ad absurdum.

BuilderPlumber

20Cent wrote: »

Ted Cruz cooks his bacon with a machine gun.
Wraps it around the barrel then fires for a while.
No seriously.
He even made a video of himself doing it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaZGaJrd3x8

Demonstrates his target constituency.

And I thought that Donald Trump was the craziest candidate here. I was wrong. When I heard the name Ted Cruz first, a drug dealer from Miami Vice was what came into my head. Not too far off the mark it seems?

alaimacerc

BuilderPlumber wrote: »

And I thought that Donald Trump was the craziest candidate here. I was wrong.

You may yet be right. But Cruz wants to at least plant the seed of doubt on that!

Meathlass

Will this debate be shown at 2am on Thursday night/Friday morning on the Fox station available on the Sky platform?

Amerika

The 10 GOP candidates that made the debate roster include real estate magnate Donald Trump; former Florida Governor Jeb Bush; Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker; former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee; retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson; Texas Senator Ted Cruz; Florida Senator Marco Rubio; Kentucky Senator Rand Paul; New Jersey Governor Chris Christie; and Ohio Governor John Kasich. The GOP debate will be at 9 p.m. ET Thursday.



The seven GOP candidates, who did not make the top 10, will be debating in a separate 5 p.m. ET debate. They include former Governor Rick Perry, former Senator Rick Santorum, Governor Bobby Jindal; former head of HP Carly Fiorina; South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham; former New York Governor George Pataki; and former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore.

I’ll probably catch the JV team's debate on the radio and the Varsity squad on TV.

Thargor

Why are Rick Perry and Santorum even bothering? Wonder if Herman Cain will throw his hat into the ring...

Overheal

or huckabee for that matter. He got a tv show from Fox the last time he ran - maybe he wants a better primetime slot? Bill has to retire eventually.

ECO_Mental

Omg.....watching the debate this has to be the end of the donald. He is out if control..

Also this is the first time that I have got to hand it to fox. The questions they are asking are hard and personal, great stuff

ECO_Mental

The Donald is out of control he is crazy.... Comedy. It there no one he can't insult

20Cent

Here is the debate:
https://youtu.be/D9bRSJrJqUU

My favourite bit so far.

Paul Rand: "You gave Obama a big hug"
Chris Christie: "The hugs I remember are the hugs i gave to the people who lost their families on 911"

TwoGallants

20Cent wrote: »

Here is the debate:
Chris Christie: "The hugs I remember are the hugs i gave to the people who lost their families on 911"

Such a rubbish, politicians answer! To be fair, the statement was mean spirited too.

I like Rand Paul for various reasons (or at least Rand Paul 12 months ago, he seems to have shifted a bit for electoral reasons) and I thought he got the better of Chris Christie in this one. Christie is the archetypical Republican bully, the type of man who would blindly lead to US into a fascist police state. The national mood has changed a lot since Snowdens revelations.

jobbridge4life

Trump is shocking, but what is more shocking is that the audience cheered after he singled out Rosie O'Donnell for all that abuse. It was genuinely disgusting.

Thargor

Sums it up:

https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/status/629399243334090752

TwoGallants

jobbridge4life wrote: »

Trump is shocking, but what is more shocking is that the audience cheered after he singled out Rosie O'Donnell for all that abuse. It was genuinely disgusting.

Trump only benefited from this debate. He is notorious, and Republican rank and file loved his line about 'political correctness'. In case you don't know, PC is just another way of saying - don't be an asshole. But many of Trumps supporters are what we would objectively call, assholes. And there is a big constituency in America for asshole politicians! I think he would do quite well in a general election, maybe getting 10% of the popular vote as a third party candidate. I don't automatically think he will gift it to the dems though, the asshole streak runs across both parties and to independents. He could win enough of the vote in states like Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado etc. to tilt it towards the Republicans (Although in this scenario he might make the likes of North Carolina, Georgia etc competitive for Democrats if they can rally their core black vote against 'the man', and really the Donald is a personfication of 'The Man'.)

jobbridge4life

TwoGallants wrote: »

Trump only benefited from this debate. He is notorious, and Republican rank and file loved his line about 'political correctness'. In case you don't know, PC is just another way of saying - don't be an asshole. But many of Trumps supporters are what we would objectively call, assholes. And there is a big constituency in America for asshole politicians! I think he would do quite well in a general election, maybe getting 10% of the popular vote as a third party candidate. I don't automatically think he will gift it to the dems though, the asshole streak runs across both parties and to independents. He could win enough of the vote in states like Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado etc. to tilt it towards the Republicans (Although in this scenario he might make the likes of North Carolina, Georgia etc competitive for Democrats if they can rally their core black vote against 'the man', and really the Donald is a personfication of 'The Man'.)

Its all true. Shocking probably wasn't the right word for the audience reaction. Scary and disappointing would be better.