2016 US Presidential Race - Mod Warning in OP

Black Swan

Eric Cartman wrote: »

theres also a lot of females in the US who would vote for clinton purely because she's a woman, just as a lot of african americans registered to vote for obama in 08 just because he was black. A very very fickle bunch.

Female registered voters (52.1%) outnumber male registered voters (47.9%) in the USA. Does this make you wonder if there are more factors affecting female voting preferences in past and present elections other than simple gender given that most US congressional office holders are male?

In 2015, 104 (76D, 28R) women hold seats in the United States Congress, comprising 19.4% of the 535 members; 20 women (20%) serve in the United States Senate, and 84 women (19.3%) serve in the United States House of Representatives.

There is an obvious gender gap for female US Congress office holders by party, with substantially more women Democrats (76) holding office than Republican (28). Here too the issue is complex, and not a mere reference to female voting preferences based upon female gender.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

brooke 2

Black Swan wrote: »

Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson said on Meet the Press Sunday that he wanted abortion outlawed under all circumstances, including incest and rape; e.g., forcing the raped woman (or pregnant female child) to carry the rapist's child 9 months through childbirth.

Carson pedalling furiously to get the Republican nomination. Would sell his soul to the devil, at this stage!

Black Swan

According to Real Clear Politics polling sources Trump and Carson clearly lead the Republican presidential nomination pack, with Rubio a very distant 3rd. What does this say to the established GOP contenders running far behind, and their party?

LuckyLloyd

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Personally think we're long past the references to Rudy Giuliani or 'insert nobody X who led polls in previous nomination runs at point Y' being relevant. If Trump does end up pulling up very early in the actual primaries he will have set a new standard for length of lead in a primary race before dropping out as an irrelevance.

Regarding the theory of 'Conservatives' eventually copping on and pulling forward a party establishment candidate before the big show, it's worth looking at some of the polling for early primary states (and such polls are riddled with errors of course). It could play out in such a way where Bush / Rubio are too far out of it by the time people really start focussing on the implications of a general election.

Don't get me wrong, Trump and Carson can still be reasonably assumed as unelectable in every sense. But we're way past a Herman Cain style interlude. When you have Bush laying off staff and cutting expenses you have to conclude that this extended period of laggard polling IS having an effect on the more established candidates.

Black Swan wrote: »

According to Real Clear Politics polling sources Trump and Carson clearly lead the Republican presidential nomination pack, with Rubio a very distant 3rd. What does this say to the established GOP contenders running far behind, and their party?

In many respects a Trump / Carson Primary victory could be the best thing that happened the Republican Party in terms of constructive defeat since Goldwater's 1964 campaign. What's happening right now is no accident. Trump and Carson are 'be careful what you wish for' examples. This is the consequence of an extended stretch of extremely negative politics of anger and divisiveness.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Brian?

Anywhere I can see tonight's debate in Ireland?

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Black Swan

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

There has been an obvious lack of GOP adequate (much less charismatic) leadership since the McCain-Palin loss of 2008. The Romney-Ryan loss of 2012 was the 2nd strike in this game, and a November 2016 loss would be their 3rd strike with serious public image consequences beyond metaphor.

Permabear wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Oh grand, now I have to carve a Trumpkin too for this coming weekend! Scary indeed! :cool:

ancapailldorcha

Unrelenting Sorrow, your post is so far below the standard expected of posters here that I do not know where to begin. I am giving you a week off this forum during which you can familiarise yourself with our charter and the standards we expect posters to conform to.

Manic Moran

Don't get me wrong, Trump and Carson can still be reasonably assumed as unelectable in every sense.

Trump, yes. Carson, I'm not so sure.

For example RCP shows Carson as beating Clinton in every poll, albeit the margin is statistically slim.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_carson_vs_clinton-5119.html

Similarly, against Sanders.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_carson_vs_sanders-5677.html

I'm not sure that Carson is any further to the "right" than Sanders is to the "left," so for moderates/independents, he has no particular disadvantage there. He does have an advantage in that he comes from a fairly unimpeachable background, comes across as measured, calm, and well-spoken, and his 'right' leanings seem to be more moral-based than government-based, if you understand what I'm saying. The counter to that is that he has no government experience, whereas Sanders has a lot, and Clinton's not too poor there either.

Then again, I suspect there is some groundswell that moderates are fed up to the back teeth (I know I am) of the way the career politicians have run the country in the past while, and someone who the polls are showing as trustworthy/honest (even if you disagree with his personal moral positions) may well be able to ride this to the top.

Manic Moran

Manic Moran wrote: »

Trump, yes. Carson, I'm not so sure.

For example RCP shows Carson as beating Clinton in every poll, albeit the margin is statistically slim.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_carson_vs_clinton-5119.html

Similarly, against Sanders.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_carson_vs_sanders-5677.html

I'm not sure that Carson is any further to the "right" than Sanders is to the "left," so for moderates/independents, he has no particular disadvantage there. He does have an advantage in that he comes from a fairly unimpeachable background, comes across as measured, calm, and well-spoken, and his 'right' leanings seem to be more moral-based than government-based, if you understand what I'm saying. The counter to that is that he has no government experience, whereas Sanders has a lot, and Clinton's not too poor there either.

The most shocking thing I learned about Carson in the first debate was that he was a brain surgeon. Someone who had brain surgery that went wrong, perhaps, but a brain surgeon? I can only assume he's playing the creationist, ayatollah levels of religiosity for the hardcore following in the GOP. If that kind of rhetoric is going to win a US presidential election versus a progressive candidate in the age of information, the US as a whole is in the far worse place than I could have imagined.

Manach

Carson does come across as an intelligent and informed person, in touch with core traditional America values of faith and family which would appeal to the typical Red state voter.

Overheal

Manach wrote: »

Carson does come across as an intelligent and informed person, in touch with core traditional America values of faith and family which would appeal to the typical Red state voter.

You haven't been following him then? Tried to stab someone to death when he was 14, and told people they should rush a shooter - when he (a vegetarian..) was in a Popeyes (where even the vegetables contain chicken) he says he had a gun pointed into his ribs by a robber and instead of being any sort of hero, he said "you want the guy behind the counter"

He'gone.

BOHtox

What time does the main debate start at, our time?

daithi1970

..i would imagine that, if Carson did get the nod from the GOP,the democrat attack dogs would have a field day with him..(as the gop attack dogs tried to do to Hilary)

InTheTrees

Manach wrote: »

Carson does come across as an intelligent and informed person, in touch with core traditional America values of faith and family which would appeal to the typical Red state voter.

Carson is only slightly less of a loon than trump.

His story about how he tried to kill someone and it was only the victims metal belt buckle that saved them is bizzare. I don't understand why he even brought it up.

And his story about telling the robber to "go get that guy" is just weird. So hes a coward.

And now he says no abortions even in cases of rape and incest.

And he's also suggesting the 10% flat tax isn't he? Massive burden to the poor who currently don't pay any and a huge benefit to the rich who pay more.

He makes Sarah palin look well prepared.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Manach

Overheal wrote: »

You haven't been following him then? Tried to stab someone to death when he was 14, and told people they should rush a shooter - when he (a vegetarian..) was in a Popeyes (where even the vegetables contain chicken) he says he had a gun pointed into his ribs by a robber and instead of being any sort of hero, he said "you want the guy behind the counter"

He'gone.

So the main part of the post I can decipher is that he is accountable for his actions when he as a minor? Is this inclusive of all candidates now or should we go back to infants school to ensure that proper presidental style was shown at all times.

Manach

InTheTrees wrote: »

Carson is only slightly less of a loon than trump.
.

The categorisation of loon seems to be those that are supportive of both the GoP and hold a pro-Life position instead of the cult of nihilism that abortion activists seem to embrace as their own shibboleth. As for taxes, this seems a return to clip away the behemoth of the modern state that now reaches with more rules and regulations that dwarf historic norms.

InTheTrees

Sergio Georgini wrote: »

The most shocking thing I learned about Carson in the first debate was that he was a brain surgeon. Someone who had brain surgery that went wrong, perhaps, but a brain surgeon?

He is proof of the adage that doctors are sheltered from everyday life.

Years of intense focused study followed by a specilaised career can give one a blinkered view of the world.

InTheTrees

Manach wrote: »

The categorisation of loon seems to be those...

His story about trying to kill someone was pretty freaky.

Its not like he had remorse or changed his mind he would have done it only his knife blade broke on the victims belt.

Just weird.

BOHtox

Lindsey Graham is just missing something. A je ne sais quoi. But if he had it he'd be on the debate in a few hour's time and not this one.


(Not an endorsement)

Overheal

Manach wrote: »

So the main part of the post I can decipher is that he is accountable for his actions when he as a minor? Is this inclusive of all candidates now or should we go back to infants school to ensure that proper presidental style was shown at all times.

Well - if we're going there - Obama was 'held accountable' for the longform birth cert that was made on his behalf when he was a newborn. So the bar has been set very low.

A minor can most definitely be tried as an adult, depends on the case and the judge. Attempted murder would be one of those types of case that shoots you right up to the front of the line, generally speaking.

Anywho, Carson's account of the incident and boy he does like to add a bunch of useful sidenotes, like how he enjoyed hurting people with hammers?

I had real anger issues. I would just fly off the handle and really become quite irrational and try to hurt people with baseball bats, hammers, whatever. In this particular case, I happened to have a large camping knife. And, you know, one of my friends angered me. And I just lunged at his abdomen with the knife. Probably would have seriously injured or killed him, but he happened to have on a large metal belt buckle under his clothing, upon which the blade broke. And, of course, he fled in terror. But I was more horrified than he was, because I realized that I was trying to kill somebody over nothing — and that I would never realize my dreams of becoming a physician. And I would end up in jail, reform school, or the grave. And I just locked myself in the bathroom and started praying …

Overheal

BOHtox wrote: »

Lindsey Graham is just missing something. A je ne sais quoi. But if he had it he'd be on the debate in a few hour's time and not this one.


(Not an endorsement)

More like a je ne sais queer..

Oddly, I did look him up the other night and I have some questions about his military record, as it seems like he received a lot of unwarranted promotions (one from GWB). A rather detailed, scrutinizing account here

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/for-lindsey-graham-years-of-light-duty-as-a-lawmaker-in-the-air-reserve/2015/08/02/c9beb9fc-3545-11e5-adf6-7227f3b7b338_story.html

Manic Moran

Sergio Georgini wrote: »

The most shocking thing I learned about Carson in the first debate was that he was a brain surgeon. Someone who had brain surgery that went wrong, perhaps, but a brain surgeon? I can only assume he's playing the creationist, ayatollah levels of religiosity for the hardcore following in the GOP. If that kind of rhetoric is going to win a US presidential election versus a progressive candidate in the age of information, the US as a whole is in the far worse place than I could have imagined.

Not only a brain surgeon, but one of the best in the world at it at the time. And one who managed it despite coming from a rather underprivileged background.

I think the US people are willing to give a person of great personal faith the opportunity, as long as it doesn't interfere with the operation of the law. It's a distinction that Carson has made (eg his personal opinion that a muslim should not be president, but his official position that one is as entitled to run for office without prejudice as anyone else), but I'm not sure how many of his detractors have similarly identified the distinction.

He is proof of the adage that doctors are sheltered from everyday life.

Years of intense focused study followed by a specilaised career can give one a blinkered view of the world.

One can make the same observation of career politicians. How much do they really relate to Joe Public?

InTheTrees

Manic Moran wrote: »

One can make the same observation of career politicians. How much do they really relate to Joe Public?

Enough to know that describing how you tried to kill someone may not go down too well?

Although he's catching trump...

PopePalpatine

Manach wrote: »

The categorisation of loon seems to be those that are supportive of both the GoP and hold a pro-Life position instead of the cult of nihilism that abortion activists seem to embrace as their own shibboleth. As for taxes, this seems a return to clip away the behemoth of the modern state that now reaches with more rules and regulations that dwarf historic norms.

The stench of pompous butthurt off of this is unreal.

RobertKK

The CNBC Republican debate is on.

Donald Trump had the audience laughing as he took down John Kasich.

Overheal

Not watching, as you have to pay for cable to watch through any mainstream means.

$4 billion collectively spent on the midterms, but people still want to upcharge Americans to 'participate' in democracy.