Central Bank to limit amount banks lend for home purchase

TheDriver

The Spider wrote: »

Not all commuter towns are created equally, if you can get in and out of a dublin relatively quickly they won't drop.

That said, if Dublin falls then everywhere else will too, Dublin is the engine of the country, as happened last time the collapse in Dublin lead to the collapse everywhere else.

However a collapse in Dublin is looking increasingly unlikely, and as I said on that mega thread over a year ago, substitution effect will happen as people can no longer afford one area they replace it with another all the way out to all commuter towns.

The economy is going to grow like a rocket in the next year or so according to the ESRI, complete lack of supply in Dublin means prices continue to increase, and rents with them.

You might say that someone should be looking at the best they can get in commutervilke now as opposed to a year down the road, because unless there's a huge outside economic event prices won't be cheaper!

That level of excitement is 2004 time again...........very worrying.....

The Spider

TheDriver wrote: »

That level of excitement is 2004 time again...........very worrying.....

Well it's not, there is no supply in Dublin, basic laws of economics, low supply high prices. Until that changes prices will continue to rise. More and more jobs economy is going to keep growing into 2015 and beyond.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/ibec-forecasts-spectacular-5-7-growth-in-economy-1.2045845

3,086 properties available in Dublin, of that 2,065 are houses and of that 1,764 are three bed houses, and of that 819 are semi-detached, 354 are detached.

So that's 819 semi-detached houses for sale in Dublin that has a population of 1.8 million and that's expanding rapidly.

Sorry but when you look at the numbers, there is just no way any reasonable amount of supply can be provided to meet the demand in the next few years.

Anyone who has their head screwed on and wants to buy a house should be looking at their options sooner rather than later.

Greyian

The Spider wrote: »

Well it's not, there is no supply in Dublin, basic laws of economics, low supply high prices. Until that changes prices will continue to rise. More and more jobs economy is going to keep growing into 2015 and beyond.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/ibec-forecasts-spectacular-5-7-growth-in-economy-1.2045845

3,086 properties available in Dublin, of that 2,065 are houses and of that 1,764 are three bed houses, and of that 819 are semi-detached, 354 are detached.

So that's 819 semi-detached houses for sale in Dublin that has a population of 1.8 million and that's expanding rapidly.

Sorry but when you look at the numbers, there is just no way any reasonable amount of supply can be provided to meet the demand in the next few years.

Anyone who has their head screwed on and wants to buy a house should be looking at their options sooner rather than later.

So you're saying that there is absolutely no demand for anything outside of 3-bed semi-detached houses? Even ignoring the terraced houses, are you saying no-one has any interest in detached houses? People don't want a detached house, which probably has a larger garden too? Absolutely nobody wants to live in anything but 3 bed houses either? What about 4 beds? Or 2 beds? Or apartments?

Also, what's your source for the Dublin population? I can't find any that put Dublin anywhere close to 1.8 million. I've found 527k for Dublin (2011), and 1.2 million for the Greater Dublin Area (also 2011), which is what I assume you actually mean.

And there's no certainty that there will be sustained economic growth (see here, here or here). If the global economy goes into recession, we're going to follow.

Sala

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexnovember2014/#.VJlOeF4gKA

CSO figures out. Dublin minus 0.1%

seamus

Sala wrote: »

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexnovember2014/#.VJlOeF4gKA

CSO figures out. Dublin minus 0.1%

Interesting halt, but as usual impossible to draw any prediction from a single months' figures. Probably indicates what most people have expected though; cash buyers have left the market and houses are priced well out of the reach of most mortgage buyers.

Interesting to note that apartments still saw a slight rise and were the biggest grower in the YTD. Investors jumping in for the high rents perhaps? Or younger buyers getting "on the ladder", having not been around in 2007 and so having learned no lesson?

hfallada

seamus wrote: »

Interesting halt, but as usual impossible to draw any prediction from a single months' figures. Probably indicates what most people have expected though; cash buyers have left the market and houses are priced well out of the reach of most mortgage buyers.

Interesting to note that apartments still saw a slight rise and were the biggest grower in the YTD. Investors jumping in for the high rents perhaps? Or younger buyers getting "on the ladder", having not been around in 2007 and so having learned no lesson?

Or the fact that the CSO Stats are based on such a low number of sales, which is then compared to another low number of sales

groovyg

The Spider wrote: »

The economy is going to grow like a rocket in the next year or so according to the ESRI, complete lack of supply in Dublin means prices continue to increase, and rents with them.

Minister Ged Nash seems to think so too, 2015 is going to be the year of the pay increase .....and upping the minimum wage

The Spider

Greyian wrote: »

So you're saying that there is absolutely no demand for anything outside of 3-bed semi-detached houses? Even ignoring the terraced houses, are you saying no-one has any interest in detached houses? People don't want a detached house, which probably has a larger garden too? Absolutely nobody wants to live in anything but 3 bed houses either? What about 4 beds? Or 2 beds? Or apartments?

Also, what's your source for the Dublin population? I can't find any that put Dublin anywhere close to 1.8 million. I've found 527k for Dublin (2011), and 1.2 million for the Greater Dublin Area (also 2011), which is what I assume you actually mean.

And there's no certainty that there will be sustained economic growth (see here, here or here). If the global economy goes into recession, we're going to follow.

Wikipedia greater dublin area 1.8

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin

Demand for other houses, certainly is, but it wasn't so long ago people around these parts were saying apartments were a waste if money, if you read through my post you'll see I mentioned. The number if detached houses.

Scream and rant all you want buddy but houses are only going one way and it isn't down, not for the foreseeable anyway.

gaius c

hfallada wrote: »

Or the fact that the CSO Stats are based on such a low number of sales, which is then compared to another low number of sales

CSO basically excludes half the market because it doesn't take account of cash sales.

When you look at the PPR data, the figure for November is -11%. Admittedly, data for November is still coming in but the chances of that going positive are slim.

Very early days. Will need to wait till March or so before we can call a trend.

Sala

gaius c wrote: »

CSO basically excludes half the market because it doesn't take account of cash sales.

When you look at the PPR data, the figure for November is -11%. Admittedly, data for November is still coming in but the chances of that going positive are slim.

Very early days. Will need to wait till March or so before we can call a trend.

Minus 11% year on year?

gaius c

gaius c wrote: »

CSO basically excludes half the market because it doesn't take account of cash sales.

When you look at the PPR data, the figure for November is -11%. Admittedly, data for November is still coming in but the chances of that going positive are slim.

Very early days. Will need to wait till March or so before we can call a trend.

PPR and CSO say prices down in Dublin? That's impossible. The fundamentals are sound, Dublin will never fall because supply.

If this is repeated for another month or two - and makes a few headlines - expectations will change and the mania would move into reverse gear.

The Spider

The Spider wrote: »

Scream and rant all you want buddy but houses are only going one way and it isn't down, not for the foreseeable anyway.

They literally went down in November.

http://m.independent.ie/business/irish/dublin-property-prices-fall-but-they-rise-countrywide-30858741.html

Greyian

The Spider wrote: »

Wikipedia greater dublin area 1.8

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin

Demand for other houses, certainly is, but it wasn't so long ago people around these parts were saying apartments were a waste if money, if you read through my post you'll see I mentioned. The number if detached houses.

Scream and rant all you want buddy but houses are only going one way and it isn't down, not for the foreseeable anyway.

I wasn't suggesting that you didn't mention the detached houses, I was querying why you said "So that's 819 semi-detached houses for sale in Dublin that has a population of 1.8 million and that's expanding rapidly." In effect, you mentioned the detached houses, but then completely ignored them when actually discussing the available stock.


I also think you and I must have vastly different definitions for what screaming and ranting are.

Greyian

seamus wrote: »

Interesting to note that apartments still saw a slight rise and were the biggest grower in the YTD. Investors jumping in for the high rents perhaps? Or younger buyers getting "on the ladder", having not been around in 2007 and so having learned no lesson?

I can remember speaking to my cousin about 12-18 months ago, as he and his friends were completing college, and he mentioned that most of his friends (particularly all the couples) were talking about where they wanted to buy (and what property type) in the coming year or two. Not one of these people had a job offer at that point, and none of them were planning on getting anything other than a 35-year mortgage when they did buy.

Utter lunacy

seamus

gaius c wrote: »

CSO basically excludes half the market because it doesn't take account of cash sales.

When you look at the PPR data, the figure for November is -11%. Admittedly, data for November is still coming in but the chances of that going positive are slim.

Very early days. Will need to wait till March or so before we can call a trend.

Looking at the PPR data, I'm getting the average selling price in Dublin is up 12.7% YOY? Though down 8.84% MOM. That said, MOM values can fluctuate wildly.
Also looks like there'll be a ~20% increase in volumes YOY by the end of the year.

TheDriver

Greyian wrote: »

I can remember speaking to my cousin about 12-18 months ago, as he and his friends were completing college, and he mentioned that most of his friends (particularly all the couples) were talking about where they wanted to buy (and what property type) in the coming year or two. Not one of these people had a job offer at that point, and none of them were planning on getting anything other than a 35-year mortgage when they did buy.

Utter lunacy

And back to my big fear- we have learnt nothing and hence why the central bank and EU need to keep the market in check. Our politicians who claim they got us out of financial mess are also willing to promote the same situation again.....

Sala

seamus wrote: »

Looking at the PPR data, I'm getting the average asking price in Dublin is up 12.7% YOY? Though down 8.84% MOM. That said, MOM values can fluctuate wildly.
Also looks like there'll be a ~20% increase in volumes YOY by the end of the year.

Do you mean selling (as opposed to asking) prices? And 20% increase in stock volume on the market or in sales?

seamus

Sala wrote: »

Do you mean selling (as opposed to asking) prices? And 20% increase in stock volume on the market or in sales?

Selling - just the raw sales data from the PPR

The Spider

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They literally went down in November.

http://m.independent.ie/business/irish/dublin-property-prices-fall-but-they-rise-countrywide-30858741.html

After a rise of 22% in 2014, they've gone down by 0.01%?

Wait and see, I heard Charlie Weston on Newstalk, saying we may see more modest rises, not so sure myself, it's all about supply.

Prices go down developers won't build, catch 22

gaius c

Sala wrote: »

Minus 11% year on year?

MOM
+1% year on year.
December (so far) is 0% YOY

gaius c

seamus wrote: »

Looking at the PPR data, I'm getting the average asking price in Dublin is up 12.7% YOY? Though down 8.84% MOM. That said, MOM values can fluctuate wildly.
Also looks like there'll be a ~20% increase in volumes YOY by the end of the year.

PPR doesn't record asking prices.

Sala

gaius c wrote: »

MOM
+1% year on year.
December (so far) is 0% YOY

That's very interesting. Is that nationally?

Sala

Sala wrote: »

That's very interesting. Is that nationally?

Does ppr lag cso or vice versa?
Or is it that they are broadly the same but cash buyers (include in ppr but not cso) pay less than mortgaged buyers?

The_Conductor

The Spider wrote: »

After a rise of 22% in 2014, they've gone down by 0.01%?

Wait and see, I heard Charlie Weston on Newstalk, saying we may see more modest rises, not so sure myself, it's all about supply.

Prices go down developers won't build, catch 22

The Indo have screwed up the stats that were published by the CSO.
The excel spreadsheet they distributed is attached.
It bears little semblence to the figures quoted in the Indo- and November is far from the only month that had a fall either.

Attached for your information.

The CSO have a more limited version of this on their website too- I'd encourage people to go to the horses mouth and actually use the CSO stats- than relying on the Indo's interpretation of them (as they don't appear to understand how to use statistics.........- or care.........)

When looking at the figures- Jan 2005 is used as a baseline of 100.......

gaius c

Deleted User wrote: »

Does ppr lag cso or vice versa?
Or is it that they are broadly the same but cash buyers (include in ppr but not cso) pay less than mortgaged buyers?

CSO lags PPR because of the time it takes to go from sale agreed to solictor submitting to revenue but PPR data can often take months to be updated in full.

gaius c

Do spoiler tags work here?
Edit: they don't.



If anybody wants to see the original excel file, just pm me an email address and I'll forward it on.

seamus

gaius c wrote: »

PPR doesn't record asking prices.

*facepalm*. Wrong word.

gaius c

seamus wrote: »

*facepalm*. Wrong word.

I think you're doing something wrong with the data to be getting 12.7% YOY but the national transactions are up approx 20% on last year so far.

The_Conductor

gaius c wrote: »

If anybody wants to see the original excel file, just pm me an email address and I'll forward it on.

Me please.
PM on its way.

Mongfinder General

I read that some loon of a developer said that he couldn't build houses in Laois unless he was selling for 200k a pop!