Central Bank to limit amount banks lend for home purchase

BoatMad

The Spider wrote: »

Older couples don't, a lot of people are only in a position to buy in their thirties after saving for a decade, those people won't get mortgages in their 40's.

Of course QE is probably going to put paid to any hoped for drops in Dublin anyway for the forseeable future.

I don't think QE will result in increased lending, Banks are cautious, Regulation has increased ( as we are seeing) , borrowers have little appetite for risk, nor banks for that matter and all over the EU deleveraging of debt is occurring

The money will be sucked up by sovereigns refinancing debt at essentially free money rates and little effect other then currency falling will be the affect in the real world.

Dublin prices will slow as the cash buyers start to fall out of the market and new buyers cannot get credit.

The conditions of 2002+ simply arnt present.

The Spider

BoatMad wrote: »

I don't think QE will result in increased lending, Banks are cautious, Regulation has increased ( as we are seeing) , borrowers have little appetite for risk, nor banks for that matter and all over the EU deleveraging of debt is occurring

The money will be sucked up by sovereigns refinancing debt at essentially free money rates and little effect other then currency falling will be the affect in the real world.

Dublin prices will slow as the cash buyers start to fall out of the market and new buyers cannot get credit.

The conditions of 2002+ simply arnt present.

Yes, but a devalued euro makes Dublin a much more attractive place for international investors, same thing happened in London. Relatively speaking there's a lot of value in Dublin for people with that kind of money, there's 3152 properties for sale in Dublin at the moment and 837 apartments, not too hard to imagine those being snapped up.

BoatMad

The Spider wrote: »

Yes, but a devalued euro makes Dublin a much more attractive place for international investors, same thing happened in London. Relatively speaking there's a lot of value in Dublin for people with that kind of money, there's 3152 properties for sale in Dublin at the moment and 837 apartments, not too hard to imagine those being snapped up.

probably , but that will further cool the domestic market borrower

The Spider

BoatMad wrote: »

probably , but that will further cool the domestic market borrower

To be honest I think Dublin is going to move out of average purchasers sights quite quickly, as has been pointed out earlier it's a small capital city with restricted supply, people will be forced to look outside Dublin or decide to rent.

BoatMad

The Spider wrote: »

To be honest I think Dublin is going to move out of average purchasers sights quite quickly, as has been pointed out earlier it's a small capital city with restricted supply, people will be forced to look outside Dublin or decide to rent.

yes but the net effect will be to reduce borrowings internally , which is what the central bank wants.

in the meantime, the supply side is gearing up, and no doubt in about 5 years , theres will be complaints of a glut !.

The Spider

BoatMad wrote: »

yes but the net effect will be to reduce borrowings internally , which is what the central bank wants.

in the meantime, the supply side is gearing up, and no doubt in about 5 years , theres will be complaints of a glut !.

60-100,000 houses needed in Dublin by 2021, to meet population demands, no building happening, available supply today 3,152.

Where is the supply side gearing up to meet that kind of need?

The Spider

The Spider wrote: »

Yes, but a devalued euro makes Dublin a much more attractive place for international investors, same thing happened in London. Relatively speaking there's a lot of value in Dublin for people with that kind of money, there's 3152 properties for sale in Dublin at the moment and 837 apartments, not too hard to imagine those being snapped up.

I would have thought that the 'foreign' money coming into Ireland is from Irish people living abroad. They might come back later and in the meantime they have people here who can deal with any problems that arise. It's not the same Russian/Greek/Saudi billionaires buying up mansions in Kensington as a store of wealth.

London is an international city. Yes, people in Ireland speak English but it's not the same. Money was pouring into London inflating prices but these monied investors were ignoring the 'value' on offer in Sheffield and Derry.

Now there's value in Dublin and Cork, relative to London, and it's going to get better for currency reasons. But that won't be enough to attract lots of Saudi princes to Castlenock any more than the widening gulf between London and Glasgow dragged the smart, ballsy Saudis up to Govan.

The other issue is that they want high-value assets because the transaction costs (financial and hassle) of buying a 4-bed in Glasnevin while living in Moscow are too high.

The exception is commercial property and, perhaps, large blocks of apartments. At least with that you can spend tens of milllions, pay an agent to manage it for you, and it all makes sense provided there isn't a crash.

BoatMad

The Spider wrote: »

60-100,000 houses needed in Dublin by 2021, to meet population demands, no building happening, available supply today 3,152.

Where is the supply side gearing up to meet that kind of need?

where there is brass, there are people making things for it, it just takes time,

Notice all our , newly re-educated developers reverting the building again
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/boom-developers-back-building-new-homes-in-dublin-30158163.html

more will follow, its the dynamics of a free market

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

I would have thought that the 'foreign' money coming into Ireland is from Irish people living abroad. They might come back later and in the meantime they have people here who can deal with any problems that arise. It's not the same Russian/Greek/Saudi billionaires buying up mansions in Kensington as a store of wealth.

London is an international city. Yes, people in Ireland speak English but it's not the same. Money was pouring into London inflating prices but these monied investors were ignoring the 'value' on offer in Sheffield and Derry.

Now there's value in Dublin and Cork, relative to London, and it's going to get better for currency reasons. But that won't be enough to attract lots of Saudi princes to Castlenock any more than the widening gulf between London and Glasgow dragged the smart, ballsy Saudis up to Govan.

The other issue is that they want high-value assets because the transaction costs (financial and hassle) of buying a 4-bed in Glasnevin while living in Moscow are too high.

The exception is commercial property and, perhaps, large blocks of apartments. At least with that you can spend tens of milllions, pay an agent to manage it for you, and it all makes sense provided there isn't a crash.

yes most of the commentary re external monies flowing in was around commercial property

Mr.McLovin

The Spider wrote: »

Yes, but a devalued euro makes Dublin a much more attractive place for international investors, same thing happened in London. Relatively speaking there's a lot of value in Dublin for people with that kind of money, there's 3152 properties for sale in Dublin at the moment and 837 apartments, not too hard to imagine those being snapped up.

international investors buy blocks not 3 beds in Finglas

johnp001

The Spider wrote: »

Yes, but a devalued euro makes Dublin a much more attractive place for international investors, same thing happened in London. Relatively speaking there's a lot of value in Dublin for people with that kind of money, there's 3152 properties for sale in Dublin at the moment and 837 apartments, not too hard to imagine those being snapped up.

New CB restrictions on investment are stricter than for occupiers requiring 30% cash down. International investors in a low-interest economy want to leverage themselves to the maximum rather than tying up capital.
Also, figures indicate that Dublin property market is going into decline now so capital appreciation is not likely. CGT tax exemption is no longer valid. Investment was a much better deal a year ago than it is now or will be in the foreseeable future.

Jeremyr

The Spider wrote: »

Older couples don't, a lot of people are only in a position to buy in their thirties after saving for a decade, those people won't get mortgages in their 40's.

Of course QE is probably going to put paid to any hoped for drops in Dublin anyway for the forseeable future.

QE won't increase lending, if anything investors are going to be put off the Dublin property market it offers poverty returns and comes with such a high risk

Jeremyr

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

international investors buy blocks not 3 beds in Finglas

Do people actually buy 3 beds in Finglas, i thought they were free if you refuse to work or are an immigrant

Don't be bold Jeremyr

The Spider

Deleted User wrote: »

I would have thought that the 'foreign' money coming into Ireland is from Irish people living abroad. They might come back later and in the meantime they have people here who can deal with any problems that arise. It's not the same Russian/Greek/Saudi billionaires buying up mansions in Kensington as a store of wealth.

London is an international city. Yes, people in Ireland speak English but it's not the same. Money was pouring into London inflating prices but these monied investors were ignoring the 'value' on offer in Sheffield and Derry.

Now there's value in Dublin and Cork, relative to London, and it's going to get better for currency reasons. But that won't be enough to attract lots of Saudi princes to Castlenock any more than the widening gulf between London and Glasgow dragged the smart, ballsy Saudis up to Govan.

The other issue is that they want high-value assets because the transaction costs (financial and hassle) of buying a 4-bed in Glasnevin while living in Moscow are too high.

The exception is commercial property and, perhaps, large blocks of apartments. At least with that you can spend tens of milllions, pay an agent to manage it for you, and it all makes sense provided there isn't a crash.

Dublin can't be compared to London, but equally it can't be compared to Glasgow, Sheffield or Derry. IFSC, Google, Facebook, Linkedin, Zendesk, Dropbox, Instagram, Airbandb, Amazon, Aol, Yahoo, Salesforce, Havok Games, Hubspot, Groupon, eBay, Adobe, IBM, pAYPAL, Microsoft, Oracle, Symantec, Twitter, and that's just some of the Tech companies in Dublin, there are many many more, let alone other industries, now can you see how Dublin wpuld be an attractive place to invest?

The Spider

The Spider wrote: »

Dublin can't be compared to London, but equally it can't be compared to Glasgow, Sheffield or Derry. IFSC, Google, Facebook, Linkedin, Zendesk, Dropbox, Instagram, Airbandb, Amazon, Aol, Yahoo, Salesforce, Havok Games, Hubspot, Groupon, eBay, Adobe, IBM, pAYPAL, Microsoft, Oracle, Symantec, Twitter, and that's just some of the Tech companies in Dublin, there are many many more, let alone other industries, now can you see how Dublin wpuld be an attractive place to invest?

Tell me again. Are you saying that rich people who live overseas and will continue to live over there are going to buy individual properties (as opposed to big blocks of 100 apartment) so they can rent them to tech workers?

Or are you saying that people who come here from abroad to work in Google might buy a property here?

The former is just not real. The latter, of course, is real. Some people who come for work will, even if they don't intend to stay forever, buy something to live in.

But that's a different argument. You, I thought, were suggesting that some of the foreign money that poured into London could divert to Dublin because there's better value on offer.

Cuddlesworth

The Spider wrote: »

Dublin can't be compared to London, but equally it can't be compared to Glasgow, Sheffield or Derry. IFSC, Google, Facebook, Linkedin, Zendesk, Dropbox, Instagram, Airbandb, Amazon, Aol, Yahoo, Salesforce, Havok Games, Hubspot, Groupon, eBay, Adobe, IBM, pAYPAL, Microsoft, Oracle, Symantec, Twitter, and that's just some of the Tech companies in Dublin, there are many many more, let alone other industries, now can you see how Dublin wpuld be an attractive place to invest?

They are all normal companies paying normal wages. London pay finance wages. I've seen some of the figures from low level shell companys in the IFSC but they are the candle to the bonfire wages garnered in London at the moment.

johnp001

Everywhere in the EU has become cheap for international investors. Dublin has experienced property price inflation in the last year way above the EU average. Investors would be looking for a market they can get into before this kind of price inflation, not after.
They've been (lots of multi-million transactions on PPR this year for blocks of apartments in Dublin), but they've now left the market.

johnp001

johnp001 wrote: »

Everywhere in the EU has become cheap for international investors. Dublin has experienced property price inflation in the last year way above the EU average. Investors would be looking for a market they can get into before this kind of price inflation, not after.
They've been (lots of multi-million transactions on PPR this year for blocks of apartments in Dublin), but they've now left the market.

And this week's headlines about the fastest growing property market in Europe only make investors think they've missed the boat. They don't see rapid growth and pile in - they are not like random irish amateur investors 😊

The Spider

johnp001 wrote: »

Everywhere in the EU has become cheap for international investors. Dublin has experienced property price inflation in the last year way above the EU average. Investors would be looking for a market they can get into before this kind of price inflation, not after.
They've been (lots of multi-million transactions on PPR this year for blocks of apartments in Dublin), but they've now left the market.

Do the comparison to Dublin and other capital cities in that toil I posted earlier, then come back to me.

johnp001

The Spider wrote: »

Do the comparison to Dublin and other capital cities in that toil I posted earlier, then come back to me.

London is in a bubble too. Comparative affordability with another property bubble is no reason to throw ourselves off the same cliff!

The Spider

johnp001 wrote: »

London is in a bubble too. Comparative affordability with another property bubble is no reason to throw ourselves off the same cliff!

Didn't mention London, try Amsterdam. Helsinki, Rome, Paris, Berlin, Oslo, Stockholm, all either more expensive or the same as Dublin, search through the comparisons, before all the Dublins property is too expensive comments.

handlemaster

Jeremyr wrote: »

So true

I also hate the people who take mortgages out from the Bank of Mammy and Daddy

I dont hate its a waste of thinking time

johnp001

The Spider wrote: »

Didn't mention London, try Amsterdam. Helsinki, Rome, Paris, Berlin, Oslo, Stockholm, all either more expensive or the same as Dublin, search through the comparisons, before all the Dublins property is too expensive comments.

It's not a question of "too expensive" or not. No amount of affordability comparisons would convince me that large scale investment is destined for Dublin after 18 months of property price inflation that was far ahead of the rest of the eurozone and vastly ahead of inflation and that has now stagnated and is starting to reverse. Or that the influx of investment would coincide with the removal of property investment tax incentives and credit tightening in the property market.

The Spider

johnp001 wrote: »

It's not a question of "too expensive" or not. No amount of affordability comparisons would convince me that large scale investment is destined for Dublin after 18 months of property price inflation that was far ahead of the rest of the eurozone and vastly ahead of inflation and that has now stagnated and is starting to reverse. Or that the influx of investment would coincide with the removal of property investment tax incentives and credit tightening in the property market.

Ok so let me get this straight, there'll be no investment in property in Dublin, but somehow supply is going to increase to drive down prices, 3125 properties for sale in Dublin today when between 60'000 and 100'000 are required over the next few years.

This comes back to supply and demand, low supply and high demand equals high prices, no matter what the asset.

Can you see how this would become attractive to an investor?

johnp001

The Spider wrote: »

Ok so let me get this straight, there'll be no investment in property in Dublin, but somehow supply is going to increase to drive down prices, 3125 properties for sale in Dublin today when between 60'000 and 100'000 are required over the next few years.

This comes back to supply and demand, low supply and high demand equals high prices, no matter what the asset.

Can you see how this would become attractive to an investor?

There was low supply and high demand in Dublin in 2007 shortly before the last crash too and any investor who looked at the property market simply in terms of supply vs demand at a particular moment in time without regard to trends and other factors affecting the market would have lost a lot of money by investing then.
According to Daft Q4 2014 report

daft report wrote:

More than 3,500 properties were listed for
sale in Dublin on December 1, a third more
than on the same date a year previously.

supply is increasing, as it did in 2007/2008 at the start of the last property crash.
Various factors, national and global came together to cause prices to fall then, and once they started to fall they continued to fall until pent up demand and mattress money arrested the falls and caused a rebound in prices in Dublin and surrounding areas.
Now factors have again come to push prices down and when they start to fall now it will be swifter due to fresh memories of the previous crash and there is no indigenous brake that will be applied to the falls. It will probably last until a global economic recovery occurs.

So, in answer to your question. No, unless we are talking about a really bad investor

The Spider

johnp001 wrote: »

There was low supply and high demand in Dublin in 2007 shortly before the last crash too and any investor who looked at the property market simply in terms of supply vs demand at a particular moment in time without regard to trends and other factors affecting the market would have lost a lot of money by investing then.
According to Daft Q4 2014 report

supply is increasing, as it did in 2007/2008 at the start of the last property crash.
Various factors, national and global came together to cause prices to fall then, and once they started to fall they continued to fall until pent up demand and mattress money arrested the falls and caused a rebound in prices in Dublin and surrounding areas.
Now factors have again come to push prices down and when they start to fall now it will be swifter due to fresh memories of the previous crash and there is no indigenous brake that will be applied to the falls. It will probably last until a global economic recovery occurs.

So, in answer to your question. No, unless we are talking about a really bad investor

To be honest, we won't agree here, best bet is wait till March if prices are on the down then you're right, if they're on the up....well we'll wait and see!

MarkAnthony

The Spider wrote: »

Didn't mention London, try Amsterdam. Helsinki, Rome, Paris, Berlin, Oslo, Stockholm, all either more expensive or the same as Dublin, search through the comparisons, before all the Dublins property is too expensive comments.

I was watching something there the other day saying Berlin was uber cheap (although it's now getting more expensive very quickly). I'm not sure how Dublin compares to Berlin (honest question, I do genuinely wonder how it compares).

johnp001

MarkAnthony wrote: »

I was watching something there the other day saying Berlin was uber cheap (although it's now getting more expensive very quickly). I'm not sure how Dublin compares to Berlin (honest question, I do genuinely wonder how it compares).

An interesting post recently on the "Property Market 2015" thread compared childcare costs in Berlin and Dublin http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=93665168&postcount=72
Also the borrowing costs there are a fraction of those here according to another post on the same thread http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=93938862&postcount=300
It is factors like these that make massive impact on the cost of living that mean I am not convinced of the value and investment potential of Dublin by the affordability comparisons between capital cities discussed in the posts above. Some good broad data but the influence of other factors (such as childcare costs to take a single example) can mean it is like comparing apples with oranges.

A more relevant affordability comparison that I saw recently is published here:
http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/mortgage-affordability-1690278-Sep2014/

walshyn93

Typical of SIPTU to come out against preventing another bubble. All about the short term impact on homebuyers, not considering the fact that this will bring house prices to sane levels in the long term.