FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

Iancar29

icesnowfrost wrote: »

look at the GEM, my god that is windy and old and snowy.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8686/gem-0-180_qhw1.png

Nothing really dramatic there , cool and windy , no snow until after it leaves anyways. It would be a different story if the low formed when there was a cold pool already in place .

icesnowfrost

Iancar29 wrote: »

Nothing really dramatic there , cool and windy , no snow until after it leaves anyways. It would be a different story if the low formed when there was a cold pool already in place .

tru tru!!!! all good signs though

Harps

Still a very messy picture having just viewed this evenings runs, after a mostly mild week ahead my best guess would be Christmas Day to have a cool slack NW'erly, nothing particularly interesting but seasonal and mainly dry. The following few days cool and unsettled with the possibility of a stormy day at some point which might drag down some cold air on its back edge. Still no real consistency on whether the Atlantic ridge is a transient feature or if it develops into a full on block so some interesting model watching in the next couple of days

Kermit.de.frog

ECM ensemble mean at Day 10 - strong support for ever colder weather from Christmas Eve.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Love the Pub run !!! :pac:

Its sticking to its guns and upgrading, granted still in FI but the trend os your friend !

maquiladora

So, yeah...18z GFS P sure looks interesting...

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

So, yeah...18z GFS P sure looks interesting...

Snap

maquiladora

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

Its just epic, now make it +96 and ill be happy !

patneve2

The GFS p run is truly a beautiful run. The 18z operational, despite showing potential, isn't a good run overall. Can go either way, we'll just have to wait and see.

leahyl

patneve2 wrote: »

The GFS p run is truly a beautiful run. The 18z operational, despite showing potential, isn't a good run overall. Can go either way, we'll just have to wait and see.

Which one generally is more reliable?

patneve2

leahyl wrote: »

Which one generally is more reliable?

Not sure to be honest

maquiladora

Not much point commenting on the 18Z GFS P in too much detail really since its so far into FI and the next run will probably be different again...but there could be quite a bit of snow if that came off. Would be nice to experience a proper frontal snow event rather than relying on shower trains. It's been a while...

Oneiric 3

numilus cimbus wrote: »

-6 uppers are not cold enough for low ground snow in precipitation in off the Atlantic except well inland or in the Lee of hills
You'd only have a wintry mix with those uppers, with most populous places getting cold sleety rain showers

I disagree to an extent. We got a full day of quite beefy snow showers and a good covering as a result on February 11th last when uppers were around -6c or thereabouts under a westerly flow (I am 40 m asl). Although I would say snow would more likely to happen under such a set up later in the season than earlier due to lower SSTs leading less 'mixing' thus lower dew-points etc.

numilus cimbus

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I disagree to an extent. We got a full day of quite beefy snow showers and a good covering as a result on February 11th last when uppers were around -6c or thereabouts under a westerly flow (I am 40 m asl). Although I would say snow would more likely to happen under such a set up later in the season than earlier due to lower SSTs leading less 'mixing' thus lower dew-points etc.

I think that's not a true westerly flow though
It's essentially a long track returning north northeasterly, a better track by far for westerners and one or a variant which has delivered Xmas snow to Galway, Limerick and Cork before Iirc about 10 years ago
It's not impossible to get the right ingredients surviving the Atlantic, just rarer and you're right,more possible later in winter
If I was a negative dew point I'd be scared of those journeys which is another reason I personally don't like them,they usually are fleeting

cherryghost

-6 is knife-edge stuff, -8 uppers is better but again DP needs to be below 0 also.

maquiladora

0Z GFS P is another cold and potentially very snowy run in FI. But it's just FI, and the ECM does not agree with it.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

0Z GFS P is another cold and potentially very snowy run in FI. But it's just FI, and the ECM does not agree with it.

In reality it probably won't be until the weekend before we get any clarity or even later? is the ECM very far off the GFS P?

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

In reality it probably won't be until the weekend before we get any clarity or even later? is the ECM very far off the GFS P?

Well this is just the FI fun thread, it's about fantasy charts more than realism.

But model consensus is more important than any one model.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Now that I am off work for Christmas I can plan my days around the new model runs

Great craic altogether :pac:

Reckless Abandonment

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

Now that I am off work for Christmas I can plan my days around the new model runs

Great craic altogether :pac:

We'll be expecting updates after each and every run then

numilus cimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

Well this is just the FI fun thread, it's about fantasy charts more than realism.

But model consensus is more important than any one model.

And that often in complicated set ups doesn't happen until 3 days beforehand, so it could be another week before we know what might happen on the 27/28th

PukkaStukka

Talk about schizophrenic weather :rolleyes:

From week start to week end

BLIZZARD7

Gfs and gfs (p) op runs not so great this evening for cold prospects but the Gem and Ukmo are looking good... Bet the Ecmwf comes out with a bitter run now just to confuse everything even more... As is often the case, more runs needed.

numilus cimbus

Aye,it's a cod.
Look back at threads around Dec 6th 2013 and it's the same carry on,good charts, then bad and we got nothing
Losing faith in this one now,it has all the hall marks of another time waster
Let's see what mid January brings,I'll look in the new year

maquiladora

numilus cimbus wrote: »

Aye,it's a cod.
Look back at threads around Dec 6th 2013 and it's the same carry on,good charts, then bad and we got nothing
Losing faith in this one now,it has all the hall marks of another time waster
Let's see what mid January brings,I'll look in the new year

Don't forget, this is the fantasy island charts thread.
Nobody should be surprised at 180+ hour output changing massively from day to day.

I still think the best chance of something interesting won't be until after a period of strat warming possibly downwells favorably. Of course that doesn't mean something can't happen before that, it's just not as likely I think.

BLIZZARD7

numilus cimbus wrote: »

Aye,it's a cod.
Look back at threads around Dec 6th 2013 and it's the same carry on,good charts, then bad and we got nothing
Losing faith in this one now,it has all the hall marks of another time waster
Let's see what mid January brings,I'll look in the new year

Its just run to run variation in FI. We are in a veryy different place to last winter, the polar vortex is a shadow of what it was last winter... The whole northern hemisphere is primed to unleash cold air to lower latitudes. Its just unclear still if we are going to be in the firing line any time soon. I would bet this evenings gfs op runs are on the warmer side of the ensembles too.

Stratosphere wise, we are also in a far better place with plenty of warmings predicted and on going wave activity just piling on the pressure to an already weak vortex, I feel we will hit a 'breaking' point at some point, possibly after a potential ssw in early January. It is after this point that we will have a real chance of a sustained cold outbreak. Before that though there is plenty of tropospheric led changes that could send us into a much colder pattern than we are currently in.. Ala 12z gfs(p) from yesterday. So all in all its looking good with plenty of opportunities for colder weather, unlike last winter.

numilus cimbus

Aye but we're taught to look for trends and there are none.
Reading NOAA across the pond they are happy out to 8 days on the general American pattern across all models, yet Mt suggests we should have more faith in the gfs to handle this set up as we are depending on factors over there the ecm and ukm are less able for.

If mt is wrong on this one that will be twice this month we're led down the garden path!
Which is why I wonder any mention of FI in the main forecast here is played up in the past few days
As often too soon*


*Of course I hope I'm wrong but it's the case most of the time just look at old threads,riddled with false hopes

BLIZZARD7

How can they be happy of agreement out to 8 days with the pattern over America? That is exactly where we are seeing differences that are causing us headaches downstream. The Gfs 12z and gfs (p) today are good examples of this with one showing a much more amplified pattern than the other over the USA.

Also remember small differences over the us can have major ramifications downstream later on for us. Alot can change in 5-6 days nevermind 8.

numilus cimbus

Well they are according to the scientific forecast discussions which are available on wunderground
I looked at the Boston discussion given its area discusses developments in eastern Canada andthat part of the Atlantic
Make of that what you will