FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

numilus cimbus

I'm of the view now,we won't be see'ing anything too unusual or extreme in the next week with most wintryness if any for the hills
Much promise mainly from the lack of model agreement earlier but that proper cold air's staying where it is for now save for a bit of a draft
I don't think Met Eireann are sparing us the details beyond Boxing Day because they think there's a risk of extreme weather,I'd say it's simply because they'd prefer to be more exact on the details of the wind,rain and mountain snow or sleet(if any) and the models aren't helping
Forecast scripts like tonight's are often seen to be honest with model flux,I wouldn't be reading too much into it that isn't there

It will be interesting to see what actually does happen in the next week after all this but let's see what the strat warm brings in January,it looks extensive
All this warm air advection from the Azores now up through us in through Europe as far as Russia is a fly in the ointment though
We DO NOT want to see high pressure building in Europe or Russia

JCX BXC

numilus cimbus wrote: »

Boxing Day

I apologise, but its not boxing day in Ireland:P

Kermit.de.frog

GFS keeps up the fight for coldies on the 00z shortly after Christmas with new hints that an easterly may be possible as well. NAVGEM very similar. The rest don't want to know. This is far from resolved.

EDIT - ECM now toys with northerly than easterly from the 28th. Interesting. Lets see if this evolves over later runs.

maquiladora

Well, we're still no close to understanding the low of the 27/28th after the 0Z runs. Still significant differences at 120 hours.






GFS and GFS P reduce the probability of strong winds, but both have cold air coming down as the low tracks away to the east, allowing that short window for some snow showers to follow.
UKMO develops the low further north and looks the least interesting in terms of wind and cold, a non-event here if that comes off.
ECM is somewhat similar to UKMO at 120 hours, but the low is more intense and a bit further south. What's more interesting with the ECM though, and different from the other models, is that the low tracks south from Scotland to southwest England from 120-144, a very atypical track, and as a result we get what could be a significant windstorm here, with inland gales :



So still a variety of interesting possibilities along with the possibility that nothing really interesting at all happens. :cool:

maquiladora

No consensus between 06Z GFS and GFS P for Saturday, and neither look anything like the ECM. The uncertainty continues.

maquiladora

Off in la la land of 240+ hours, the GFS P delivers 48 hours of heavy snow with strong easterly winds. If this was 48 hours away the forum would be in absolute meltdown. Classic FI stuff. :pac:

Strangegravy

A fantastic set up develops on the GFS (P) FI going into the new year, a bitter North Easterly with undercutting lows bring snow to most of Ireland. The ultimate set up for most, but seeing as the charts can't agree what's happening on the 27th, these charts are definitely just eye candy unfortunately.

Strangegravy

maquiladora wrote: »

Off in la la land of 240+ hours, the GFS P delivers 48 hours of heavy snow with strong easterly winds. If this was 48 hours away the forum would be in absolute meltdown. Classic FI stuff. :pac

Damn my slow typing and editing skills!

ninebeanrows

Well well!

rickdangerouss

Strangegravy wrote: »

A fantastic set up develops on the GFS (P) FI going into the new year, a bitter North Easterly with undercutting lows bring snow to most of Ireland. The ultimate set up for most, but seeing as the charts can't agree what's happening on the 27th, these charts are definitely just eye candy unfortunately.

maquiladora

The uncertainty over the low on the 27th/28th is evident by the scatter that sets in on the GEFS after midnight on the 26th.

Strangegravy

rickdangerouss wrote: »

Ha, ha.... exactly! As Maq said imagine this place if that was 48hrs away.......

Iancar29

Weathercheck wrote: »

Well well!

:D:D

JCX BXC

Irish weather Online is reporting a chance of snow around the 27th-29th. How are the charts looking?

Larbre34

Carnacalla wrote: »

Irish weather Online is reporting a chance of snow around the 27th-29th. How are the charts looking?

Thats MT.

cherryghost

Consider the fact that even at 30hrs between 06Z and 12Z there's a large enough difference for the low overhead!

sean555

Gfs rollercoaster continues.
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/341/gfs-2-132_yps1.png

maquiladora

Still some differences between GFS and GFS P on the 12Z runs. GFS P is the better result here if you are looking for some snow showers. Both models would produce gusts of around 110 km/h here at times, not severe.




UKMO seems to keeps the low further south and weaker. Poor if you're looking for snow showers. Maybe a coastal flooding concern for the east coast of UK.

yellowlabrador

A good explanation of the MJO and an agreement with MT for stormy conditions
about the 8th of January from Simon Keeling

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

Still some differences between GFS and GFS P on the 12Z runs. GFS P is the better result here if you are looking for some snow showers. Both models would produce gusts of around 110 km/h here at times, not severe.

Probably a silly question Maq, but what is the 'GFS (P)' ? A little confused by all the posts referring to this in the last few days

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Probably a silly question Maq, but what is the 'GFS (P)' ? A little confused by all the posts referring to this in the last few days

That's the parallel. It's the new version of the GFS, with higher resolution. It was due to take over as the new operational but implementation has been delayed so it's still being run in parallel with the "old" version.

Oneiric 3

Chart showing the ensemble mean of the combined 15 day mean of the GFS and GFS (p) 12 z run

maquiladora

Looks like the 12Z ECM tracks the low southeastwards over Ireland. Could be quite windy for a time but will get a better idea when the run is out on the Icelandic website.

Gonzo

This seems to be taking the all too familiar pattern of the real cold air being continually pushed back into January. The forecast on RTE just there is not a cold lovers dream with some cool conditions around Christmas day then more mild wet Atlantic double figure temperatures muck from the 27th onwards. Fingers crossed that something will work out in January!

Villain

Gonzo wrote: »

This seems to be taking the all too familiar pattern of the real cold air being continually pushed back into January. The forecast on RTE just there is not a cold lovers dream with some cool conditions around Christmas day then more mild wet Atlantic double figure temperatures muck from the 27th onwards. Fingers crossed that something will work out in January!

Yep I made the below last year but I do see some more hope this year.

maquiladora

12Z ECM does indeed track the low south over Ireland. Would be pretty windy on the west coast though not too severe, but that all depends on the exact track and timing. This track is totally different to the GFS and GFS P, so still high uncertainty from the 26th onwards...

Harps

Most models now agreeing on a storm rather than snow though both GFS runs holding out stubbornly with developing the low later which leads to snow showers. Knowing our luck the most watered down and uninteresting solution will be right, something like the GEM..



Largely unrelated but I just came across the ICON model which I assume is a hi-res GME? It has some nice features on meteociel, if you click precharge then 'anim' and speed it up it plays a nice video showing cloud and airflow. Not sure how useful it is but interesting to look at!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=7&map=0&archive=0

maquiladora

Gonzo wrote: »

This seems to be taking the all too familiar pattern of the real cold air being continually pushed back into January. The forecast on RTE just there is not a cold lovers dream with some cool conditions around Christmas day then more mild wet Atlantic double figure temperatures muck from the 27th onwards. Fingers crossed that something will work out in January!

I wouldn't like to take a bet on double digits starting on the 27th. Latest GFS and GFS P models showing temperatures just a few degrees above freezing at best from the afternoon onwards on the 27th, with a -6 windchill and wintry showers possible in the northwest, and colder again on the 28th. Now that might only last a few days before things get milder again, but the models have been all over the place with things post-Stephens Day over the past couple of days and there is still a fair bit of uncertainty. We'll just have to wait and see.

JanuarySnowstor

Evening all

Well uncertainty remains but the trend is very much to cold after Friday. 850's suggest the coming weekend will be bitter with temperatures close to freezing by day and sub -5 at least by night. If that's not wintry I don't know what is.

It looks quite dry but I personally expect the situation to upgrade further in the morning as heights gain strength over Greenland.
Remember stronger heights there will help block off the Atlantic and open the flood gates

As I said last night no white Christmas (as in the day itself) but a very cold period thereafter with small upgrades for BOOM!

Elmer Blooker

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Evening all

Well uncertainty remains but the trend is very much to cold after Friday. 850's suggest the coming weekend will be bitter with temperatures close to freezing by day and sub -5 at least by night. If that's not wintry I don't know what is.

It looks quite dry but I personally expect the situation to upgrade further in the morning as heights gain strength over Greenland.
Remember stronger heights there will help block off the Atlantic and open the flood gates

yes, its a frosty outlook alright, Leopardstown punters might be disappointed.
Personally I think Greenland blocking is now a dead duck and looking at this chart I wouldn't rule out a pressure build over Scandinavia.



I actually thought of this when I saw above chart earlier, ramping I know but it is crimbo !!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1947/Rrea00119470120.gif