FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

pauldry

i still think around the period dec 27th to 29th there will be some snow. Nothing major

but looking into January apart from the odd wintry shower i forsee a mobile atlantic regime off lows and highs alternating

AnotherYear

With respect Paul no one knows what will happen this weekend let alone January.

Kermit.de.frog

I maintain that the risk of a northeasterly or easterly is increasing for late December

UKMO 120 hrs



NAVGEM 120 hrs



On both we see the north Atlantic ridge getting ever further north and an increasingly accommodative jet stream profile. This is something to watch over the next 48 hours.

force eleven

ECM continues swinging this weekends low southeast over Ireland. Then develops a northeasterly as it does so. High pressure then establishes. Will it push north and bring a continental feed in. And is that feed cold enough? Needs more time. Looking at January now tbh.

maquiladora

0Z GFS, GFS P still showing a cold shot with a chance of wintry showers for northern parts at least on he 27th/28th.




0Z ECM still tracks the low south over Ireland instead, it's weaker than the 12Z though, so still gales for the west but not as strong as it looked yesterday.

It's mentioned in the Met Eireann forecast now.

While it's not yet completely certain, it looks like Saturday evening and night may become very windy as a low pressure system move southwards over Ireland. This has the potential to give strong or gale force, and very gusty winds to some areas, especially in coastal counties. There'll be further showers or longer spells of rain, hail, and sleet.

ECM ensembles at 96 hours all have the low differently though, some over Iceland, some over Ireland, some strong, some barely develop it at all.

GEFS shows that just about anything is still possible :

Storm 10

Thanks maquiladora for the great charts you post during the year, Happy Christmas

maquiladora

Storm 10 wrote: »

Thanks maquiladora for the great charts you post during the year, Happy Christmas

Thanks. Won't get a chance to post much or check the models after this morning until after Christmas. Have a good one, and hopefully we end up with something interesting!

leahyl

Thanks maq for your valuable input - Happy Christmas to you and yours :-) here's to a snowy new year!!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

I'll post some charts, admittedly I may be pretty drunk but hey, thats gonna make it more interesting right !

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Thanks. Won't get a chance to post much or check the models after this morning until after Christmas. Have a good one, and hopefully we end up with something interesting!

Thanks Maq for all your updates. You are always the voice of reason when we all get excited about a chart on the models. Have a great Xmas and hopefully by your return we'll have charts with snow potential down south.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

GFS P still wanting to give some white stuff on 27th on the 6z



GFS Op doesn't want to quite as much fun

The Peanut

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

I'll post some charts, admittedly I may be pretty drunk but hey, thats gonna make it more interesting right !

I know it has been said many times but your username always brings a smile to me face. Happy Christmas.:D

Tom Cruises Left Nut

The Peanut wrote: »

I know it has been said many times but your username always brings a smile to me face. Happy Christmas.:D

Ha same to you !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Ha, the GFS deep in FI !



And the P, again deep in FI

diceyd

Happy Christmas everyone

shmaupel

The Peanut wrote: »

I know it has been said many times but your username always brings a smile to me face. Happy Christmas.:D

Me too. No matter how many times I read it, it always gives a little involuntary snigger!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

shmaupel wrote: »

Me too. No matter how many times I read it, it always gives a little involuntary snigger!

I just hope Liam doesn't find out about it, he has a knack of finding people !

/runs

Oneiric 3

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

I'll post some charts, admittedly I may be pretty drunk but hey, thats gonna make it more interesting right !

Rebelbrowser

The 12z GFS P is showing some snow for all within the next 4 days. Threads have been started for less!

See

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

The 12z GFS P is showing some snow for all within the next 4 days. Threads have been started for less!

See

Enlarged it for you

numilus cimbus

According to John Holmes on netweather,the ECM postage stamps favour cool zonal for the foreseeable
They are not always right but I'm growing weary of looking for snow now because frankly ,there are no great signs
Populated urban areas will only see rain from this next system,intuition and past experience tells me that


" Btw, the latest ec32 looks cool zonal weeks 3 and 4 on the mean/anomolys with not too much sign of any blocking though there could be some clusters
I would agree with that idea
The anomaly charts, well the NOAA 8-15 day chart,suggests this. Certainly no sign of any marked northern outbreak either from the NW or NE if that is a correct portrayal of the upper pattern into the New Year?
link below
.cpc.noaa....10day/500mb.php "

nacho libre

numilus cimbus wrote: »

According to John Holmes on netweather,the ECM postage stamps favour cool zonal for the foreseeable
They are not always right but I'm growing weary of looking for snow now because frankly ,there are no great signs
Populated urban areas will only see rain from this next system,intuition and past experience tells me that


" Btw, the latest ec32 looks cool zonal weeks 3 and 4 on the mean/anomolys with not too much sign of any blocking though there could be some clusters
I would agree with that idea
The anomaly charts, well the NOAA 8-15 day chart,suggests this. Certainly no sign of any marked northern outbreak either from the NW or NE if that is a correct portrayal of the upper pattern into the New Year?
link below
.cpc.noaa....10day/500mb.php "

Which would more or less tally with the unofficial uk met office winter outlook posted last month by Ian f, which was; cool zonal interludes, with no severe cold expected before February, if at all.
i'm not well up on the strat forecast, but judging by those who seem to be, no ssw is going to occur before we are well into January, despite previous suggestions that a ssw might have taken place right about now or into early January.
All this means we are unlikely to see anything other than a continuation of polar maritime or brief northerlies before the atlantic takes over again. On some of the models we see that is indicated to happen in the new year, on others we don't, if any mlb does develop it is unlikely to last long with the pv showing signs of going back home to Greenland. personally at this stage a night of accumulting snow will do me:) Vilian's video was very funny and sobering in that regard. I'm off to Greenland:D

Gonzo

looks like straw clutching to me, cool on christmas day, maybe a few wintry showers on the 26th and 27th and back to very mild atlantic muck from the 28th onwards into new year's day. It will be a very short lived blast.

Rikand

Gonzo wrote: »

looks like straw clutching to me, cool on christmas day, maybe a few wintry showers on the 26th and 27th and back to very mild atlantic muck from the 28th onwards into new year's day. It will be a very short lived blast.

we can only hope so!

PukkaStukka

Yet again, FI betrays us and lets us all down again.....:pac:

space2ground1

I would love to see a model that builds in elements of probability based on the liklihood of specific conditions in certain geographic locations. I'm not sure how the algorithm could work. Maybe if their model predicted a -12 with precipitation event on a long / lat that statistically doesn't get those conditions regularly, it'd shift it by x North and East or west etc.

It seems year after year we have a lot of scientists and computers producing models which arent of any use until +96. It's meteorological heresy I gather to interfere with the generated forecasts like that but wouldn't it be more useful as a more reliable long term cast to add probability and an element of artificial intelligence into the mix?

At least then we wouldn't all be looking at charts that have little or no chance of occurring. I think it'd be a good step forward albeit a very expensive one to develop.

Kermit.de.frog

GFS same old. The UKMO gets that bit further toward an a potential easterly scenario from day 5. Does not quite make it on this occassion but the trend is definitely there.

numilus cimbus

It's a bad sign when we're using nearly there's post120hrs as a trend
Atlantic muck is currently as far east as Russia, so an easterly would be useless.
It would take 5 days for polish air to get here and that's warm.
Ten days for anything from Siberia to reach here and the starting block is a 'nearly there' 5 days from now?
Talk about fairytales, forget it.

icesnowfrost

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014122312/gfs-0-108.png?12
gfs-p looking great for a short blast of northeast wind. could a few snow showers in up the east to northeast coast on the 28th
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014122312/gfs-2-108.png?12

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

Which would more or less tally with the unofficial uk met office winter outlook posted last month by Ian f, which was; cool zonal interludes, with no severe cold expected before February, if at all.
i'm not well up on the strat forecast, but judging by those who seem to be, no ssw is going to occur before we are well into January, despite previous suggestions that a ssw might have taken place right about now or into early January.
All this means we are unlikely to see anything other than a continuation of polar maritime or brief northerlies before the atlantic takes over again. On some of the models we see that is indicated to happen in the new year, on others we don't, if any mlb does develop it is unlikely to last long with the pv showing signs of going back home to Greenland. personally at this stage a night of accumulting snow will do me:) Vilian's video was very funny and sobering in that regard. I'm off to Greenland:D

Never say never Mr. Nacho. I don't know much about strat warming either but I am sure there is more to potential severe cold development in this part of the world than just that, which in itself is debatable. I recall somewhere before that if strat warming was to develop, it does not necessarily lead to hemispheric pattern changes.