FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

RobertKK

maquiladora wrote: »

Can ya imagine that with the centre just north of Donegal Bay. A ~70mb gradient over Ireland.
Eventually something like that will happen, statistically it has to. But it might not be for another 100 or 200 years...

The night of the big wind is reported to have had a centre of 918mb on January 6th 1839 just to our north. Winds gusting over 115mph and reports of tornadic activity.
So I won't complain if I never see that. February 12th this year was bad enough.

That storm in F1 would be devastating if it hit us directly, thankfully, things look alright.

maquiladora

^^ Not as strong as that, but the 18Z GFSP throws up something stormy in deep FI.

Nabber

ECMWF showing a bit of wind for the SE IRL as this breaks down over Centeral UK



GFS tho Nice bomb on this over 24hrs, Portugal in for a right soaking.

maquiladora

Another stormy GFSP in FI.




Early signs of an active new year? Maybe. Long way to go.

Gonzo

the first half of January is looking like were going to be under a very strong, often windy and mild Atlantic based regime. Hopefully not a total repeat of last winter.

RED L4 0TH

Here's another potential roof shifter for the 9th.

Elmer Blooker

RED L4 0TH wrote: »

Here's another potential roof shifter for the 9th.

I was convinced I'd never see another winter like 2013-14 in my lifetime now its looking like a repeat within a year!

icesnowfrost

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I was convinced I'd never see another winter like 2013-14 in my lifetime now its looking like a repeat within a year!

have to disagree with u on that. this winter is nothing like last winter. so far

AnotherYear

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I was convinced I'd never see another winter like 2013-14 in my lifetime now its looking like a repeat within a year!

Based on what? You posted the other day winter was over but there might be a sting in tail come March. How is this Winter like last Winter? What are basing your predictions on? It's still December stop being so defeatist because you don't like the current output. You can't write off a whole winter based on a hunch and nothing more

Elmer Blooker

AnotherYear wrote: »

Based on what? You posted the other day winter was over but there might be a sting in tail come March. How is this Winter like last Winter? What are basing your predictions on? It's still December stop being so defeatist because you don't like the current output. You can't write off a whole winter based on a hunch and nothing more

Call me defeatist, I don't mind. Just before Xmas I was ramping up the possibility of a Scandinavian high but as we now know the high sank into Europe instead. Theres complete agreement between the models up to +240 at least and you have to be realistic - theres no way back from this s***e !!

AnotherYear

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Call me defeatist, I don't mind. Just before Xmas I was ramping up the possibility of a Scandinavian high but as we now know the high sank into Europe instead. Theres complete agreement between the models up to +240 at least and you have to be realistic - theres no way back from this s***e !!

The GFS , GFS P and UKMO are all different upstream at T144hrs which hardly inspires much confidence as to which solution is correct. Your comment re agreement at t240 is complete hogwash.

And even if your comment were true for t240, that's 10 days not two months. Honestly you're sounding rather daft to write off the whole winter based on absolutely nothing scientific to back up your claims.

Your last sentence speaks volumes, You don't like current output and your throwing your toys out of the pram.

FWVT

The Netweather coldie virus has spread to this forum too, I see. If someone had said that the models were in agreement on a cold outlook then I don't think the reaction would have been so harsh.

AnotherYear

FWVT wrote: »

The Netweather coldie virus has spread to this forum too, I see. If someone had said that the models were in agreement on a cold outlook then I don't think the reaction would have been so harsh.

If people were saying it was going to be snowy and sub zero for the rest of Winter and no chance of mild weather I'd be questioning them too just like I am with people saying Winter is over and there is "no coming back from this s***e" in December.

Gonzo

Im not a weather expert, not even close to it but the only thing that worries me from past experience is if the Atlantic starts roaring through from tomorrow onwards it could last for weeks, maybe months. We only really have 7 weeks left to play with. March snow has never delivered anything other than and overnight dusting which melts by noon (the snow in NI in 2013 was a big exception to this) so while im not by any means ruling out the second half of this winter it is a bit worrying that the Atlantic is starting to show signs of being extremely active from tomorrow. We only know as far out as January 10th, hopefully something from the east will get going after the new year, it's nearly 4 years since we have seen measureable snow in Ireland, we are now due at least a few days of snow and fun!

Darwin

I'm still learning myself, but from what I can determine we are by no means locked into a zonal pattern for weeks on end, there are tentative signs of an upcoming pattern change in mid January.

RED L4 0TH

12Z GFS ensemble variant 3 for the 10th January. BOOM! Fascinating checking all these out.

Oneiric 3

Gonzo wrote: »

Im not a weather expert, not even close to it but the only thing that worries me from past experience is if the Atlantic starts roaring through from tomorrow onwards it could last for weeks, maybe months. We only really have 7 weeks left to play with. March snow has never delivered anything other than and overnight dusting which melts by noon (the snow in NI in 2013 was a big exception to this) so while im not by any means ruling out the second half of this winter it is a bit worrying that the Atlantic is starting to show signs of being extremely active from tomorrow. We only know as far out as January 10th, hopefully something from the east will get going after the new year, it's nearly 4 years since we have seen measureable snow in Ireland, we are now due at least a few days of snow and fun!

I wouldn't worry too much yet Gonzo, we still have a good 2 and a half months to go through to get good, proper cold spells. If it is any comfort, remember that one of the biggest snowfalls of the 20th century in Ireland occurred on April 1st.

I don't agree that we are looking at an extremely active Atlantic over the next week or so. To me, it seems much slacker than what it should be, much as it has this Winter so far

Oneiric 3

GFS 18z op not offering much more that this:



Although the relative consistency this model is showing for a more active period in FI is slightly encouraging. I say slightly because as we all know, FI is just IF in reversed form.

maquiladora

Another powerful low on the 18Z GFSP this evening in FI. A tad further south would be interesting.




3 days later, a stronger hit from another low :



The interesting stuff is always in FI though...of course.

maquiladora

New Years Day looks windy on the 0Z WRF. 120 km/h gusts on the west coast. Inland gusts of 100 km/h in the west and up to 90 km/h for the rest of the country.




0Z GFSP looks similar.



Met Eireann forecast doesn't make much of it though, so I'm guessing the euro models don't look as interesting.

Nothing major either way, about as interesting as it gets for the near term though. :rolleyes:

numilus cimbus

The exaggerated stuff is always in FI too and a lot of damn rubbish
Trends,we have been hearing people say since November when the reality is the only trend is no trend other than a continuation of normal Irish weather

Of course something can happen still to trigger cold in our part of the world but there's no sign of this in the next 2 weeks only a train of depressions.
Inversion cold like the past 3 nights in Ireland is a mirage because our island is too small
The instant wind pucks up or a bit of cloud comes it's gone

I'm not excited by inversion frost, northern blocking please

Oneiric 3

numilus cimbus wrote: »

.
Inversion cold like the past 3 nights in Ireland is a mirage because our island is too small
The instant wind pucks up or a bit of cloud comes it's gone

I'm not excited by inversion frost, northern blocking please

Inversion cold is still cold when it is cold though. The midlands got down to -6.9c, with most parts seeing a good, solid frost for a couple of nights. I have seen higher min temperatures being recorded during northern/Scandinavian blocking events than we seen on recent nights. A point worth remembering is that one of the coldest nights/days in recent years (Dec 25 2010) occurred while an inversion lay over Ireland.

maquiladora

Can we please keep this thread just for FI charts?

Anyway, interesting to see the variety of output on the 06Z GEFS regarding the low on New Years Day at the fairly short range of just 60 hours. Quite a difference between this...



and this...

numilus cimbus

To be fair, the thread title is fantasy island
It's not Fantasy island post charts only
I am discussing what I'm reading in this thread and as it stands,there is nothing to suggest anything other than normal Irish winter weather, nothing too exciting sadly,I think most are aware of that and if some aren't it's good practice I think to remind them
There is already some attempt to muzzle that message and I for one don't agree with that approach, that's all

Tom Cruises Left Nut

numilus cimbus wrote: »

To be fair, the thread title is fantasy island
It's not Fantasy island post charts only
I am discussing what I'm reading in this thread and as it stands,there is nothing to suggest anything other than normal Irish winter weather, nothing too exciting sadly,I think most are aware of that and if some aren't it's good practice I think to remind them
There is already some attempt to muzzle that message and I for one don't agree with that approach, that's all

The thread title is Fantasy Island Charts

numilus cimbus

Aye , but posting charts here isn't compulsory, I shant say any more as this is off topic,I was merely clarifying why I posted comments,it is a discussion forum after all,let's leave it there points made

Lumi

Mod Note

This thread is for discussing FI Charts only - please use the Winter 2014/15 chat thread for everything else.
If anyone has an issue with this then PM one of the mod team

Thanks & Happy New Year!

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann forecast doesn't make much of it though, so I'm guessing the euro models don't look as interesting.

Nothing major either way, about as interesting as it gets for the near term though. :rolleyes:

Just looking at the Estoinian 06z run, it has a zone of pretty gusty winds (up to 60 kts off the coast) coming in for the afternoon of the 1st, while GFS continues to show gusts in excess of 50 kts in both coastal areas and overland, albiet coming in a bit sooner than what HIRLAM/ECM suggests. If this trend continues in later runs I would not be surprised to see M.E issuing a yellow wind alert tomorrow sometime. Either way, will be interesting to see how the various models have handled this wee feature.

maquiladora

An upgrade on the 12Z GFSP. 120-130km/h gusts on the west coast with widespread gusts in the 100-110 km/h range inland in western and northern parts.

This is only 48 hours out but it's still subject to change so probably best kept to this thread for now.



Gusts going off the Meteociel scale over northern Scotland (150+ km/h).



The UKMO don't even have an early yellow warning out for Scotland, so maybe the GFSP is overcooking it a tad, but then that would mean the 12Z GME is really overcooking it...



At least a bit of interesting weather to follow for a while.

Oneiric 3

While Estonian 12z downgrades it :rolleyes: Gusts overland a more moderate 40-45 kts, which would seem more in line with the progged isobaric gradient. Still has a zone (though much smaller) for 60 kt gusts along the NW coast for a time.