FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

While Estonian 12z downgrades it :rolleyes: Gusts overland a more moderate 40-45 kts, which would seem more in line with the progged isobaric gradient. Still has a zone (though much smaller) for 60 kt gusts along the NW coast for a time.

UKMO doesn't look too dramatic either. The development phase isn't within the HIRLAM's own domain yet though so the latest ECM will be interesting.

Still a stunning contrast in output on the 12Z GEFS at such a short range.

maquiladora

Significant timing difference with the low between the ECM and GFS at 48 hours. Different position and intensity.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

Significant timing difference with the low between the ECM and GFS at 48 hours. Different position and intensity.

Weirdly, ECM has slightly more intense troughing at 500 hPa behind that low than the GFS, so I am surprised it does not develop it further as the upper trough over-rides the surface low and adding a bit more energy to it as it does so?

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Weirdly, ECM has slightly more intense troughing at 500 hPa behind that low than the GFS, so I am surprised it does not develop it further as the upper trough over-rides the surface low and adding a bit more energy to it as it does so?

Yeah...I usually wouldn't bet against the the ECM at 48 hours, but it's quite different from the latest FAX.



Which looks quite similar to the 12Z GFSP.



We'll see. I'm kinda expecting downgrades on the 18Z now though. :rolleyes:

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

We'll see. I'm kinda expecting downgrades on the 18Z now though. :rolleyes:

Pretty rare to see these two/three models differing so much within such a short time-frame. Even if nothing happens, should be exciting to see which one ends up closest to the mark in the end.

Not related, and just for fun, ECM run tonight shows the potential for a lot of blowing snow for the north at 228 hrs.

as a developing storm system pivots back over the area. Synoptically, the development of this storm system does not look right beforehand, but who are we to question one of the worlds most powerful supercomputers!

maquiladora

Well, both 18Z GFS & GFSP are weaker. I think we know which way this will start to go now, get ready to chalk up another win for the ECM.

Oneiric 3

Evelyn C on the nine news forecast spoke of possible disruption to shipping on Thursday, so it seems that she may be considering the possibility of some strong winds - despite the ECM showing very little in the way of such.

Interesting the the DMI 18z is taking the path on a similar track to GFS/UKMO rather than ECM. Interesting times ahead.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

Well, both 18Z GFS & GFSP are weaker. I think we know which way this will start to go now, get ready to chalk up another win for the ECM.

Although the GFSP does not develop the low as vigorously as the previous run, it still has gusts in excess of 50 kts during Thursday afternoon over a large swathe of the country. But I think you are right, trickling more towards a downgrade with each run. :rolleyes:

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Although the GFSP does not develop the low as vigorously as the previous run, it still has gusts in excess of 50 kts during Thursday afternoon over a large swathe of the country. But I think you are right, trickling more towards a downgrade with each run. :rolleyes:

I don't get out of bed for anything less than an orange warning.

Yeah, still looking pretty windy as it stands if the 18Z GFSP verified, but it does feel like there will be an inexorable shift towards something even weaker.

Strangegravy

Gotta love FI.

This 920mb atlantic low is a near hurricane!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Its alright lads, we always have the CFS

maquiladora

Now that's what you call a proper storm. Inland gusts of 130-140 km/h.

RED L4 0TH

GFS ensemble variant 7 on the 9th.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

RED L4 0TH wrote: »

GFS ensemble variant 7 on the 9th.

Thats the 6z, the 12z is still rolling out

maquiladora

RED L4 0TH wrote: »

GFS ensemble variant 7 on the 9th.

Tactical

Yes please

gugsy

Gfs has it further north and not as deep. Its a very interesting storm. One to watch out for.

gugsy

If the low comes further south we could be looking at hurricane force gust and possibly hurricane force mean wind speed.

icesnowfrost

my god things are looking sexy!

RED L4 0TH

Ok, who's consuming the bubbly over at GFS Towers........

AnotherYear

maquiladora

Finally it appears on the operational rather than a GEFS member so we can take a look at it in a bit of detail.

Sustained winds off the northwest coast getting into the Cat 2 hurricane range.



Where the sustained winds are of 150+ km/h, gusts would have to be over 200 km/h at times.



A bit futher south and the ESB would still be fixing power lines in 2016.

Tactical

maquiladora wrote: »

A bit futher south and the ESB would still be fixing power lines in 2016.

That would be a nice wind event.

The ESB will fix lines though

There are still Eircom lines not repaired since Storm Darwin 11 months ago in my neck of the woods !!!

maquiladora

ECM is also stormy at 240 hours. Strong gales inland everywhere, storm force in the west.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

I'll take it !

TheMilkyPirate

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

I'll take it !

There's nothing out of the ordinary on that chart.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

There's nothing out of the ordinary on that chart.

-8 uppers and some snow

Iancar29

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

There's nothing out of the ordinary on that chart.

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

-8 uppers and some snow

90% of the time though that kind of setup would be modified by the sea giving nothing more than a high ground event .

12z rolling out now , lets see what interesting setups we get today!

icesnowfrost

ecm flirting with -8 uppers.

Iancar29

icesnowfrost wrote: »

ecm flirting with -8 uppers.

Thats only -6c isoterms over us not -8 , read my above post with regard to these setups..