FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

icesnowfrost

Iancar29 wrote: »

Thats only -6c isoterms over us not -8 , read my above post with regard to these setups..

i no that lol thats why i said flirting

RED L4 0TH

Another interesting one off the production line.

Iancar29

On a day of model runs like today ... we crawl back to the CFS for hope. :rolleyes:

maquiladora

This one reminds of me the Feb 1988 storm, one of the strongest storms of modern times (172 km/h gust at Belmullet).

RED L4 0TH

maquiladora wrote: »

No wonder the GFS has been throwing up so many monster FI storms. Look at that temperature gradient in the Atlantic. +10 uppers and -10 almost side by side.




The 300mb jet is off the charts. Rocket fuel.



If this comes off there's the real potential of some absolute humdingers. But whether anything ends up tracking close to our little island or not, who knows. Probably not!

Yes. There's an impressive cold pool of uppers over eastern Canada at +168 hrs.

Nabber

The Greenland high is back everybody, haven't seen this stranger in a while.

North Easterly

maquiladora

ninebeanrows

Will be very lucky if we escape without a significant in storm in next few weeks.

Jetstream really cranking up and the atmosphere across the North Atlantic is primed for intense storm development.

That's some jet

ninebeanrows

A few of my favourite ensembles



And i don't think I have ever seen one this bad!! :O

Nabber

For the people who want hope and not storms. GFS showing some change to the Atlantic storms.



IMO we are unlikely to see a block over the Atlantic, jet stream has run out of colours on the charts


But again last run on the GFS see the jet begin to dip below Ireland. If we could just get it to Spain we'd be onto something


For anyone not in Munster


This one is to keep the nations dreams alive

maquiladora

UKMO showing a potential storm around the 9th.



Some of the GEFS members support this idea, though most that show a low track it further north.
6 out of 20 show mean wind speeds in excess of 100 km/h at the northwest coast on the 9th.

Couple of examples.

maquiladora

06Z GFS and GFSP both showing Atlantic ridge in deepest FI. Perhaps related to strat warming.

maquiladora

Jetstream at 415+ km/h...Rocket fuel for a low that might be in the right place at the right time.

ninebeanrows

That is some jet core, one of the highest I have ever seen on a map, if not the highest.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

That is some jet core, one of the highest I have ever seen on a map, if not the highest.

448 km/h.

Iancar29

GFS (P) 12z still sending heights into Greenland at the end of FI land..
:cool:

Giving us a nice northerly .


Hopefully the trend continues and gets picked up by the ECM too .

maquiladora

Some 12Z GEFS members show the potential that a near 450 km/h jet offers.




And then these 2 :cool:




That last one, 13, is showing sustained windspeeds in the northwest up to 150 km/h and 130 km/h in the west. A storm of a generation, or perhaps several generations. Chance of it happening is of course slim, but it shows the potential when everything is in the right place with such potent conditions.

maquiladora

12Z GEFS members with sustained 10m winds above 100 km/h on the northwest coast between 9th-11th.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z GEFS members with sustained 10m winds above 100 km/h on the northwest coast between 9th-11th.

I'll get excited if the ECM plays along with any of those perturbations ! :pac:

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

That last one, 13, is showing sustained windspeeds in the northwest up to 150 km/h and 130 km/h in the west..

ECM 12 rolling out now, let's hope it picks up a scent.

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECM 12 rolling out now, let's hope it picks up a scent.

A scent, but too far north.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

A scent, but too far north.

Some potentially interesting wave features look like setting themselves up in its wake, but that inflated high to the south will probably bounce them off away to the north as well. :rolleyes:

maquiladora

Nothing too exciting on the 18Z GFS/GFSP op runs, but looking at the 18Z GEFS about half the members now have sustained winds above 100 km/h off the northwest coast between the 9th and 11th.



A couple even feature a pair of storms hitting like this.

On the 9th :



And then the next day, deja vu as a second low hits :

pauldry

As the 10th january is my birthday dont be surprised at all to see a hurricane.

The lights went out from my christening in 1974 and man utd got relegated.

Great year!

Sorry im wrong it was the 11th and 12th of January 1974 so must have been when Mam was getting out of the hospital the power went.

Anyways no wonder im so obsessed with weather eh

maquiladora

pauldry wrote: »

As the 10th january is my birthday dont be surprised at all to see a hurricane.

The lights went out from my christening in 1974 and man utd got relegated.

Great year!

Sorry im wrong it was the 11th and 12th of January 1974 so must have been when Mam was getting out of the hospital the power went.

Anyways no wonder im so obsessed with weather eh

There were several stormy periods in Jan 74. From the 10-12th, then on the 16th and again on the 27th.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

And then the next day, deja vu as a second low hits :

For some reason, the isobar pattern on that chart reminded me of a dog's head.




*gets dragged back to padded cell*

maquiladora

Still nothing too interesting on any of the 0Z op runs this morning but the majority of the GFS ensemble members now shown 100+ km/h sustained winds off the northwest coast between 9-11th.




Here's the Top 4 top dogs for Oneiric 3. Woof.

gally74

Maybe one of these will be the first named storm

ninebeanrows

Heading north but I have noticed a slight southerly trend.

Quite the beast

--- Looks like two systems one through early Friday then another perhaps more threatening during Saturday

ninebeanrows

Hurricane force winds for northern Scotland