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FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    EC trending south with system but still hasn't quite got a hold of it properly I feel, charts not very smooth

    This would still bring a period of very strong winds in the time stamp between these

    ECM1-96.GIF?05-0

    ECM1-120.GIF?05-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Ecm is actually pretty stormy at 114.

    150105_1200_114.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Way out in FI

    gfs-0-228.png?12?12


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    222-21PUK_cue9.GIF


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 655 ✭✭✭RED L4 0TH


    222-21PUK_cue9.GIF

    720045.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,505 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    222-21PUK_cue9.GIF

    That just gave me the McCollough effect!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 230 ✭✭AnotherYear


    The Met office have released two separate wind warnings for Friday and Saturday. Saturday's low will impact areas further South than Friday's. Gust of 60-70mph so pretty standard for a storm in our part of the world.

    Friday
    2015-1-9

    Saturday
    2015-1-10


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    this is something that we need to keep an eye on.

    gfs-0-192.png?6


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 230 ✭✭AnotherYear


    As we've have seen they almost always get watered down so not getting excited this time


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭dexter647


    As we've have seen they almost always get watered down so not getting excited this time

    Fair enough but with the Atlantic set up the way it is,cold air pumping out from North America and an extremely strong jet,I'll be amazed if we get away without experiencing something along the lines of above this winter


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Some very strong winds heading for Scotland from a pair of lows. ECM has actually upgraded their intensity over the past two runs, but the storm track is further north, so nothing significant for us further south.

    First low on WRF with gusts of 150 km/h approaching Scotland. The second low looks stronger than this on the ECM.

    nmmuk-11-67-0_vzk6.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    this is something that we need to keep an eye on.

    gfs-0-192.png?6

    The control run picked it up too.

    gens-0-1-204_iaq0.png

    And a few of the ensembles.

    gens-1-1-192_soi6.png
    gens-3-1-216_gfg2.png
    gens-5-1-204_mrk4.png

    Very low probability. But this is the FI thread. :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,930 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Irish Coastguard have a warning out

    https://www.facebook.com/IrishCoastGuard


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    GFSP has that FI storm again.

    gfs-0-198_nqw4.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Irish Coastguard have a warning out

    https://www.facebook.com/IrishCoastGuard

    You mean the Met Office has a warning out , imo its an non event now for the weekend for us.

    Bring on some interesting events with some possible snow showers next week in the N and NW :)

    180-7PUK_djx9.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    198-21PUK_ixz1.GIF
    198-289PUK_fkt6.GIF
    obama-sweating.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yes, looks like first set of storms will take that northerly track... however, next week he jet-stream moves a little bit south with Ireland and the UK in the firing line.

    Meanwhile, the freeze forecast across North America which is causing the jetstream intensification is really impressive.

    Look at that cold pool!

    Rnamavn1022.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    198-21PUK_ixz1.GIF
    198-289PUK_fkt6.GIF

    BANK! :D
    333870.png

    382f90313fde253278147683a666aa27c79a4cdaa57791c383b1ad1f01d4bd26.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,930 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Incar29 You mean the Met Office has a warning out , imo its an non event now
    for the weekend for us.

    Evelyn was on radio with the sea area forecast and said winds were likely to reach storm force 10 on Friday. Time will tell guys but at last something to get excited about.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Widespread inland gusts of 80-100mph, that would cause mayhem!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭Darwin


    Bank? Are you mad! I like the roof on my house just as it is :-)


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    198-289PUK_fkt6.GIF

    6JJkzg.gif
    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Evelyn was on radio with the sea area forecast and said winds were likely to reach storm force 10 on Friday. Time will tell guys but at last something to get excited about.

    Reckon the worst of the winds will be off the north coast, but possibly very gusty along N & W coasts as that fast moving low passes close.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    6JJkzg.gif



    Reckon the worst of the winds will be off the north coast, but possibly very gusty along N & W coasts as that fast moving low passes close.

    0Z ECM did show storm force winds for a time along north and west coasts. But Scotland is where the real action will be. :cool:

    MUoG2y3.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    For what it's worth, the GSM 12z model is showing the potential for a short spell of squally winds aligned with the passage of the cold front early on Saturday morning with mean speeds of up to 28 knots. Will be interesting to see if ECM/Hirlam show any prospects for this.

    New Moon



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 230 ✭✭AnotherYear


    I just saw BBC 6-10 day fc on their website. Alex Deakin said the jet stream will reach speeds of 240mph this week and in to next it will return to more normal values of 150mph. He also said it will push further South giving us a more of a direct hit but that the lows wouldn't be as vicious as a result of the slower jet.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30701853


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Looks pretty ropey for Scotland on the 18z from the first low

    And some strong winds for Ireland too

    51-289UK.GIF?06-18

    54-289UK.GIF?06-18


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Cherry picking some charts out for the sake of it.

    gens-2-1-192.png

    gens-4-0-300.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z HIRLAM has storm force winds just about grazing the Donegal coast from that first low. The second low looks like tracking even further north than that, so no interest here from that.

    en0EdY3.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 230 ✭✭AnotherYear


    I know Saturday low tracks further North but isn't it stormier than Thursday's for us Maq?

    post-9615-0-26598400-1420581417_thumb.png

    post-9615-0-81089100-1420581429_thumb.png

    post-1600-0-31729900-1420582660_thumb.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I know Saturday low tracks further North but isn't it stormier than Thursday's for us Maq?

    post-9615-0-26598400-1420581417_thumb.png

    post-9615-0-81089100-1420581429_thumb.png

    There will be strong winds on Saturday associated with the passage of a cold front across the country. It is something to keep an eye on too. Oneiric 3 mentioned it above.

    81-289PUK_kue6.GIF


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