FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

ninebeanrows

Mayday Mayday

maquiladora

jack o shea

what primary school class did ye get these charts from? no mention whatsoever of a storm on any proper forecast in the real world.

dacogawa

jack o shea wrote: »

what primary school class did ye get these charts from? no mention whatsoever of a storm on any proper forecast in the real world.

As you'll see the thread is called FI charts :rolleyes: those are GFS runs, the ECM which RTE use isn't falling in line with these but does have a fairly big disturbance to our north 2 days before, could end up somewhere in the middle, hopefully something like that won't enter your 'real world' at the end of next week!

hawkelady

jack o shea wrote: »

what primary school class did ye get these charts from? no mention whatsoever of a storm on any proper forecast in the real world.

Uh oh ..... Must be a newbie !!! You will hear about the upcoming storm in a day or two .. This thread is where you hear about it before your "real world forecasts""!!!!!!

pauldry

well said hawkelady.

The Met people might be right with their more Northerly track but there is a storm going to be close to Ireland next Wednesday. I would think that the North will certainly get some impact so it is worth mentioning.

Also worth a mention is that pre mid January the Jetstream has been to the North of us. There are a few kinks after mid month meaning cooler and more turbulent air will be more normal.

Wouldnt think we will see 14c again after next Friday for quite some time.

Saganist

jack o shea wrote: »

what primary school class did ye get these charts from? no mention whatsoever of a storm on any proper forecast in the real world.

A lot of those charts are the results of known models run on some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world.

Nabber

An now here GFS don't be giving these lads in here hope....

maquiladora

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z HIRLAM has storm force winds just about grazing the Donegal coast from that first low. The second low looks like tracking even further north than that, so no interest here from that.

0Z HIRLAM upgrades the winds here a bit for Thursday night / Friday morning. Storm force winds now along a greater area of the Donegal coast, strong gales further down the western coast. Inland, away from the the northwest coastal areas, it's just blustery and gusty for the vast majority of the country. So nothing major really, but it is what it is.

Northwest Scotland set to get a proper Hurricane-force battering though.

dacogawa

Nabber wrote: »

An now here GFS don't be giving these lads in here hope....

Snowtastic! happiest little snow bunny in all the boards!

What's that you say about FI ?

JanuarySnowstor

Next week is starting to look very interesting.

Widespread snow can happen from the West guys under the right conditions

gerrybhoy

jack o shea wrote: »

what primary school class did ye get these charts from? no mention whatsoever of a storm on any proper forecast in the real world.

maquiladora

Gusts touching 130 km/h on the Donegal coast on the latest GFS.

ninebeanrows

The ECMWF quite stormy for midweek again on this evening run, cant link chart ATM but say it on approach at 168

AnotherYear

Euro4 showing gusts of 132mph out at sea

AnotherYear

From Northern Ireland Weather facebook page. Make of it what you will

mike147

Looking at the scale models thats here,is there snow with that low pressure next ????

Tactical

Sky News reporting that UKMO predict winds of up to 100mph for Scotland.

ninebeanrows

Even though the brunt of this storm will head Scotland still could see some gusts above 120kph in the northwest after midnight tomorrow.

maquiladora

18Z GFS similar to the 12Z for here. 130 km/h gusts brushing the Donegal coast. Sustained winds touching 90 km/h right on the coast. It actually just about meets the criteria for a Met Eireann red warning but it's very much localised and short lived. Vast majority of the country will see just gusty/blustery conditions rather than anything really stormy.

ninebeanrows

Perhaps somebody who isn't as lazy as me! should start a new thread for this storm and its impact in the UK too, as will surely be in the headlines soon.

maquiladora

Just noticed that Met Eireann already have a warning out for this, and they are definitely leaning towards the weaker side of things for now at least. Wouldn't be surprised if it changed to Orange tomorrow though.

Still, nothing unusual for the northwest coast in winter either way, unless there is a significant shift south and I think it's too late for that now.

Wind Warning for Donegal, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo

Southwest to westerly winds of 50 to 70 km/h., will gust 100 to 110 km/h., during Thursday night.

Issued:
Wednesday 07 January 2015 12:00
Valid:
Thursday 08 January 2015 22:00 to Friday 09 January 2015 06:00

eastmayo

maquiladora wrote: »

Just noticed that Met Eireann already have a warning out for this, and they are definitely leaning towards the weaker side of things for now at least. Wouldn't be surprised if it changed to Orange tomorrow though.

Still, nothing unusual for the northwest coast in winter either way, unless there is a significant shift south and I think it's too late for that now.

Gerry Murphy on met eireann said that they could be upgrading to Orange for north and northwest tomorrow,that was after the 9o clock news

maquiladora

eastmayo wrote: »

Gerry Murphy on met eireann said that they could be upgrading to Orange for north and northwest tomorrow,that was after the 9o clock news

Yeah, I'm pretty sure it will be Orange unless the track changes further north tomorrow.

Hardy folks along the northwest coast though, they don't get out of bed for anything less than a red warning.

Different story for northwest Scotland though, has the potential to be really severe up there. Will be interesting to see what the wind records will actually be.

maquiladora

Another strong FI storm on the GFS this morning.

Storm 10

That's some storm if it happens maq, I see Met Eireann have gone orange with their warnings.

maquiladora

Storm 10 wrote: »

That's some storm if it happens maq, I see Met Eireann have gone orange with their warnings.

Yeah it would be up there in the same ballpark as some of the strongest winds from last winter if that came off. A big if though.

maquiladora

12Z UKMO is now showing a deepening low approaching from the southwest at 144 too.

icesnowfrost

some nice cold weather coming in on the 16th and with 2 days of colder weather in before that it might be very cold. how long will it last though?

maquiladora

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z UKMO is now showing a deepening low approaching from the southwest at 144 too.

18Z GFS for the same time :



Which ends up giving stormy conditions to the southern half of the country here :