FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

munsterlegend

Is there much of a difference Maq?

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Is there much of a difference Maq?

It's pretty good agreement for two models at that range. But at long way to go still. Just something to keep an eye on.

GFSP has a more powerful low, further north.

maquiladora

Closer look at the 18Z GFS. Very strong winds in the southwest here :



18Z GFSP, more intense low, further north, very strong winds here too :



Edit : 18Z NAVGEM has it too.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS for the same time :

Which ends up giving stormy conditions to the southern half of the country here :

A la Feb 2013.



Personally, I am gunning for a more northerly track. I refuse to accept that we in the northern half are to miss out AGAIN. :pac:

munsterlegend

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

A la Feb 2013.



Personally, I am gunning for a more northerly track. I refuse to accept that we in the northern half are to miss out AGAIN. :pac:

I have no problem transferring it north. Feb 14 - we just about survived down here and could do without.

maquiladora

Well, it was nice knowing you guys.

ninebeanrows

Hah just about to post that MAQ!

Rikand

maquiladora wrote: »

Well, it was nice knowing you guys.

The End Is Nigh!

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Well, it was nice knowing you guys.

Steopo

if something like that did ever come off what kind of wind gusts would you be looking at?

teddybones

Steopo wrote: »

if something like that did ever come off what kind of wind gusts would you be looking at?

Oh I reckon it has a centre as low as the night of the big wind! Eek

Oneiric 3

Steopo wrote: »

if something like that did ever come off what kind of wind gusts would you be looking at?

Something along the lines of this scale I would reckon.

maquiladora

Steopo wrote: »

if something like that did ever come off what kind of wind gusts would you be looking at?

With a pressure gradient of around 50mb? I dunno...200 km/h? It won't happen though, don't worry.

teddybones wrote: »

Oh I reckon it has a centre as low as the night of the big wind! Eek

It's not so much the depth of the low but how steep the gradient is that makes it so intense.

leinad

http://www.mslepc.org/conversions.htm useful conversions here bottom of page shows pressure to windspeed

maquiladora

leinad wrote: »

http://www.mslepc.org/conversions.htm useful conversions here bottom of page shows pressure to windspeed

The pressure-windspeed relationship in tropical systems doesn't apply to the extratropical cyclones in our part of the world though. Different types of systems.

teddybones

maquiladora wrote: »

With a pressure gradient of around 50mb? I dunno...200 km/h? It won't happen though, don't worry.



It's not so much the depth of the low but how steep the gradient is that makes it so intense.

It is terrifying! P.s. Love this thread. Thanks for all your expertise folks. Lurking for years, only learning and very stupidly and slowly at that, and never post but that chart got me overexcited! It is very scary!

leinad

maquiladora wrote: »

The pressure-windspeed relationship in tropical systems doesn't apply to the extratropical cyclones in our part of the world though. Different types of systems.

Can you point out a more relevant source if you know of one

maquiladora

leinad wrote: »

Can you point out a more relevant source if you know of one

One way of roughly giving an idea would be to look at examples of past severe storms and to take note of the pressure difference between the top and bottom of the island and the type of winds experienced, or if it's a smaller scale gradient, the difference between Galway and Cork etc. And then compare that to what the models show for future events. It can help give a rough idea.

maquiladora

0Z GFSP



0Z GFS.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

0Z GFSP



0Z GFS.

Thanks Maq! still on course i see - I see where MT said GFS is usually good at these type of storm developments and that the ECM doesn't have it as potent.

Whats your view or is too early yet to call how it will turn out?

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Thanks Maq! still on course i see - I see where MT said GFS is usually good at these type of storm developments and that the ECM doesn't have it as potent.

Whats your view or is too early yet to call how it will turn out?

Still too early, these things usually end up going further north and/or weaker by the time 0 comes around. I think it's very unlikely that 144 hours from now the models won't have changed how they handled this and it could very easily end up being a total non-event. But that's why it's in the FI thread. :P

Villain

Yes Maq that does look nasty, be interesting to follow over the next few days and see how it evolves.


WINDy

Harps

Spectacular 0z GFSP with sustained winds of 150kph in the NW, gusts are off the scale but at a guess 180-190kph which would make it comparable to Hurricane Debbie. Won't be happening of course but nice to see something like that on the op run rather than cherry picking perturbations

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Still too early, these things usually end up going further north and/or weaker by the time 0 comes around. I think it's very unlikely that 144 hours from now the models won't have changed how they handled this and it could very easily end up being a total non-event. But that's why it's in the FI thread. :P

the jet stream has moved further south though which might increase the chances? just pick up bits of information from here and there but as you say a long way to go.

legomaniac

Met Eireann appear to have downgraded their forecasts quite a bit for today and also for the coming midweek. I dread large storms as my house is on the north west coast but I am not to worried about this huge storm that's being picked up for next Wednesday as it's to far off in FI. I am very much a layman when it comes to weather forecasting and greatly admire those on here who provide such detailed analysis etc but I have been lurking around long enough to know that thankfully a massive downgrade will happen. Now if these models were only 24 to 48 hours out then we would have a situation on our hands.

munsterlegend

legomaniac wrote: »

Met Eireann appear to have downgraded their forecasts quite a bit for today and also for the coming midweek. I dread large storms as my house is on the north west coast but I am not to worried about this huge storm that's being picked up for next Wednesday as it's to far off in FI. I am very much a layman when it comes to weather forecasting and greatly admire those on here who provide such detailed analysis etc but I have been lurking around long enough to know that thankfully a massive downgrade will happen. Now if these models were only 24 to 48 hours out then we would have a situation on our hands.

they haven't downgraded just that its too far out to be certain either way. as maq said the likelihood is the models will change. they even say on their website there is a risk of stormy conditions next week.

ninebeanrows

Looks like you're in for it folks.......

legomaniac

munsterlegend wrote: »

they haven't downgraded just that its too far out to be certain either way. as maq said the likelihood is the models will change. they even say on their website there is a risk of stormy conditions next week.

Their wording is not as dramatic. Yesterday they were mentioning extremely windy stormy weather for Wednesday, now it's a very general mention of a chance of some stormy weather next week. I am not criticising, just pointing out that Wednesday next week is still to far out for anyone to be making a call because when it doesn't materialise it is seen, unfairly, as a failed forecast. Anyway I am also pleased that the threat of severe winds for tonight has also diminished. Part of me gets very excited about potential severe weather but also fearful at same time.

ninebeanrows

:eek::eek:

maquiladora

06Z GFS still going with a severe storm. Gusts on the west coast could be +180 km/h if this came off.



06Z GFSP also looks severe with the low still bombing as it races up past the northwest coast with the strongest winds passing right over the country. It actually shows 130 km/h gusts inland in the middle of the country at 135 hours.

So still something to keep an eye on...