FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

maquiladora

06Z GEFS ensemble mean chart shows good support for a strong low to our west at 138 hours :



Among the ensembles, a couple of ones to print out and hang on your wall.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Among the ensembles, a couple of ones to print out and hang on your wall.

acassells80

Any snow possible with these charts or is this just a wind event?

Reckless Abandonment

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GEFS ensemble mean chart shows good support for a strong low to our west at 138 hours :



Among the ensembles, a couple of ones to print out and hang on your wall.

there would be a lack of walls to hang it on. if them two became reality.

pistolpetes11

Folks Can you try not quote the images on this thread please , there is so many of them it makes it very hard to read for people on Mobiles / tablets

Gonzo

acassells80 wrote: »

Any snow possible with these charts or is this just a wind event?

mainly wind events, western and northern areas might see some wintry precipitation especially over high ground. The mild follows on very fast behind it before turning cold again for next weekend. I would say parts of Donegal would stand best chance of seeing snow over the coming week.

maquiladora

No big storm on the 12Z GFS. A different evolution with a number of different lows rather than one big clean one.

We'll see what the other models do later.



Even that version is still pretty windy though.

RED L4 0TH

Downgrade on the latest 'old' GFS run.

maquiladora

Major storm on 12Z GFSP.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Major storm on 12Z GFSP.

Is the GFS(P) supposed to be more accurate in theory?

still looks very windy down south on either model.

kkontour

RED L4 0TH wrote: »

Downgrade on the latest 'old' GFS run.

Funny the 12Z yesterday dropped the storm also, only for the 18z to pick it up again
12Z on the 8th

18Z on the 8th

maquiladora

12Z GFSP. Very intense low. Sustained winds +140 km/h. Gusts would be close to or over existing records. Still purely FI stuff of course.

maquiladora

It looks like a strong low crosses Ireland on the 12Z UKMO too. By 144 it's 947mb and starting to fill in the North Sea with the tightest gradient just east of Ireland. So if you wind that backwards there is probably a 945mb low just off the north coast with strong winds over the country.



The most important model is the ECM though as that usually handles these type of things best.

shmaupel

Thanks for posting all these charts Maq.

When does the ECM come out?

munsterlegend

shmaupel wrote: »

Thanks for posting all these charts Maq.

When does the ECM come out?

Between 6 to 6 30 i think.

AnotherYear

shmaupel wrote: »

Thanks for posting all these charts Maq.

When does the ECM come out?

Starts around 6pm
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

shmaupel

AnotherYear wrote: »

Starts around 6pm
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

Cheers!

Flat out here with a slipped disc. Bored senseless. I'm living from model run to model run!

PukkaStukka

shmaupel wrote: »

Cheers!

Flat out here with a slipped disc. Bored senseless. I'm living from model run to model run!

Get well soon! Nasty auld thing is that.

icesnowfrost

-8 uppers on tuesday

AnotherYear

Wind gusts GFS(P)

maquiladora

12Z ECM is different to the 12Z GFSP and UKMO, sort of like a weaker version of the 12Z GFS.



Something like this is far more likely than the "megastorm" runs we've seen.

Will have to wait until later to see what happens between 120 and 144 but it doesn't look like it would be too dramatic compared to some of the stuff on the other models lately.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ECM is different to the 12Z GFSP and UKMO, sort of like a weaker version of the 12Z GFS.

Something like this is far more likely than the "megastorm" runs we've seen.

Will have to wait until later to see what happens between 120 and 144 but it doesn't look like it would be too dramatic compared to some of the stuff on the other models lately.

I remember last Feb when GFS showed storm potential in the outer reaches of the reliable time frame, while ECM tended to drop it, bring it back in the next run somewhere over France, then drop it again and so before nailing it almost bang on 2 or 3 days before it struck. I am vainly hoping that this will be the case again with this potential.

Oneiric 3

Even the ECM is showing a big, wet, wind blown question mark on this potential storm system.

maquiladora

For what it's worth, very few of the ECM ensemble members have that elongated 980mb low that the op run has at 120 hours. Quite a few have a strong low to our west.

We'll see what the 18Z does later.

downwiththatsor

Gfs 18z still looks mean http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=126&mode=0

maquiladora

Yes, 18Z is stronger than the 12Z, though not as extreme as some previous runs.



Meanwhile, 18Z GFSP is much weaker than the 12Z with strong winds well south.



So...we're no nearer to knowing what will happen yet.

AnotherYear

Some insight from Ian Fergusson highlighting that the met office are keeping an eye on next weeks possible monster storm. "But focus next week is the Weds-Thurs cyclogenesis event. Some pretty potent solutions showing on T+120, +132 and +144 EC12z stamps and reflected in EC-EFI 10m gust diagnostics"

Oneiric 3

GSM025 12z run also had the low passing to the north of Ireland, with storm winds for the northern third of the country, so the ECMWF seem to be on its own on this one for now.. but unfortunately that does not make it less right.

maquiladora

18Z GEFS ensemble mean starting to look a bit more defined.

RED L4 0TH

Nastier for N Germany & Denmark with the current GFS(P) run.