FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

maquiladora

Fax. Hmmm.

Nabber

GEM at 240


Predicted jetstream, nice split in the Atlantic, sending the Jet Stream up to Iceland and down to Portugal

Jet Stream at +6hrs


jet stream at +240h

maquiladora

Things have become a bit clearer (hopefully) on the 0Z runs.

ECM is now on board with the idea of a strong low off the north coast.



So is the UKMO



So is the GFS



And the GFSP



So while it's still too early for details on strength and exact track, there is now increased confidence in this low with all the major models roughly on board for the first time.

sparrowcar

maq, what winds speeds in DUB airport would you predict if this comes off?

maquiladora

sparrowcar wrote: »

maq, what winds speeds in DUB airport would you predict if this comes off?

Far too early to say, but if it stays on that type of track I wouldn't expect anything stronger than 110-120 km/h gusts on the east coast as a maximum.

maquiladora

GFSP 10m sustained winds of 130 km/h off the Donegal coast.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Things have become a bit clearer (hopefully) on the 0Z runs.

It seems to have gone a lot further north from this mornings models. Would the likelihood be that it will track even further north?

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

It seems to have gone a lot further north from this mornings models. Would the likelihood be that it will track even further north?

Usually, stronger=further north, weaker=further south.

06Z GFS now has it weaker and further south, so much for consistency after the 0Z runs...

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Usually, stronger=further north, weaker=further south.

06Z GFS now has it weaker and further south, so much for consistency after the 0Z runs...


Thanks Maq..still looks rather windy but so many changes in the models still very uncertain.

maquiladora

06Z GFS would be windy around coasts but nothing special.

06Z GFSP is also weaker and further sound than the 0Z run, but would impact more areas on this track.

AnotherYear

Met office wind warning(Gusts of up 70mph) for Northern Ulster on Monday

maquiladora

Looking at the Wednesday/Thursday low on the 06Z GEFS ensembles, the operational run (I) was on the weaker side, the parallel run (II) was slightly stronger than the average and around 8/20 go for something stronger than the parallel. It's just a rough estimate though as the positioning is important too, not just the depth of the low.



12Z models should be interesting, ECM being the most important. 96 hours will be the key chart.

At the moment options range from a gusty non-event to something more severe than any of last winter's storms, and everything in between.

Iancar29

First batch out... GFS 12z similiar to GFS P 06z




GFS P 5mb deeper , very similiar position.

Gusts to 130km in exposed places in the NW and S ( though id say the winds in the south would be weaker on this track )

maquiladora

12Z GFS is stormy for the northern half of the country.



12Z GFSP is very similar, just a touch stronger, again the northern half of the country getting the strongest winds.



12Z UKMO on the other hand doesn't seem to want to join the party. But even this might be interesting if it develops rapidly from here.

Oneiric 3

Keeping a beady eye on that secondary that some out the outputs are hinting at following on from the main low. Sometimes they can prove to be a significant 'sting in the tail'.

maquiladora

Let's hope the ECM is as interesting later.

Iancar29

ECM


We need a to see a +100hr chart

Storm 10

Jean just said we will have storm force winds tomorrow night and a big storm on Wednesday

Oscar Bravo

Jean Byrne showed the chart for Wednesday there and it looks nasty for SW,W,NW coasts, of course alot of uncertainty yet

Iancar29

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Jean Byrne showed the chart for Wednesday there and it looks nasty for SW,W,NW coasts, of course alot of uncertainty yet

Sounds like the GFS P 12z solution!

Oscar Bravo

There we go

Harps

ECMWF hi-res is visible on wunderground, it has sustained winds of 50-60kts all along the west and NW coast

Oneiric 3

Nothing too spectacular on the ECM 12z, though potential for a zone of strong winds in the low's wake.

snowinwinter

I think we've had enough low pressure systems as of late. We need some cold arctic air to come now.. enough of this rain and wind.

Oneiric 3

Harps wrote: »

ECMWF hi-res is visible on wunderground, it has sustained winds of 50-60kts all along the west and NW coast

Would you have a link the that Harps? The mainstream outputs have mean speeds at a more modest 36 to 40 kts but this is most likely due to resolution limitations.

maquiladora

12Z ECM looks quite windy. Storm force along coasts and a period of inland gales. Not record breaking but worth keeping an eye on.

FWVT

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Nothing too spectacular on the ECM 12z, though potential for a zone of strong winds in the low's wake.

I notice that this ECM chart says wind at 100 m. I presume that's a typo.

In any case, that chart is showing around 60 knots (30-35 m/s) sustained at Belmullet.

Oneiric 3

FWVT wrote: »

I notice that this ECM chart says wind at 100 m. I presume that's a typo.

In any case, that chart is showing around 60 knots (30-35 m/s) sustained at Belmullet.

My mistake, read legend as knots rather than m/s. :rolleyes:

Oneiric 3

This is the development and track of the Feb 12th storm last year. A very tight gradient on its back edge which helped to draw those strong winds a good bit inland.

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

This is the development and track of the Feb 12th storm last year. A very tight gradient on its back edge which helped to draw those strong winds a good bit inland.

I remember some of the other models at the time showed more evenly spaced isobars and missed out on that detail which made the winds so strong over the south. It was the ECM and HIRLAM that nailed it pretty much perfectly.

Found the archives :