FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

lucernarian

Sensational progression of that low with the 850 hPa temps at -5 in the warm core!! I can't remember a synoptic like that actually being realised except I suppose around 4th January 2010. Even then it was touch and go and the LP was a more typical northerly that parked itself near Ireland and was highly occluded with showers in some areas falling as sleet while 30 minutes later a new shower on the same locations would fall as snow.

The point is I've seen such charts many times and not one has been as close to that for a non-marginal nearly-nationwide snow event. It's not easy to see such a perfect progression from Greenland like that becoming reality...

icesnowfrost

this looks promising for a good shot of beast from the east.

KingdomRushed

Can't post link because I am a "new user" but

UKMO at Day 6

Drooling here

Awaiting tonight's ECM with real interest here.

Kermit.de.frog

Remember from the 12z GFS today the parallel run is now the operational run with the resolution increased to 240 hrs.

KingdomRushed

GEM also running out now with mouthwatering output for next week. Is a major cold snap imminent?

Musicman2000

KingdomRushed wrote: »

GEM also running out now with mouthwatering output for next week. Is a major cold snap imminent?

Id wait for the ECM 12Z before getting to excited:)

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Hmmmm

Tom Cruises Left Nut

And

Daniel2590

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

Hmmmm

Holy mother of snow :eek:

Edit: the second one :eek: :eek: :eek:

Kermit.de.frog

Gonzo step away from the controls :P

gerrybhoy

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

Hmmmm

Bit of a trouser arouser that pic is

Slashermcguirk

Unbelievable charts, why do I have to be in England for most of next week!! The one time the east is due to get a snow pounding this winter!!

KingdomRushed

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Unbelievable charts, why do I have to be in England for most of next week!! The one time the east is due to get a snow pounding this winter!!

England should do well too from the modelled synoptics?

gothwalk

I'm in the UK for the next week too, and I'm looking at the forecasts with solid interest. Might well be snowed in the Cotswolds.

Trogdor

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Unbelievable charts, why do I have to be in England for most of next week!! The one time the east is due to get a snow pounding this winter!!

Even though those charts look good, they don't have any very cold air established before the low moves South of us. Upper air temps are relatively warm compared to what we'd need for snow in most places. Granted the cold air does eventually reach ireland by next Thursday (on this run) but that's quite a while away yet.

Iancar29

Exactly my thoughts Trogdor , nothing exciting yet..

AnotherYear

You have to look beyond the uppers being forecast. The slider lows originating in the Canadian arctic with a sub dam line of 528 over us. Plus after that you don't need -8 uppers with an easterly. Of course this all has to verify first and I'd imagine more changes closer to the the time as always is the way. Good potential and best we've seen for something lasting longer than a day or two for some time.

Trogdor

AnotherYear wrote: »

You have to look beyond the uppers being forecast. The slider lows originating in the Canadian arctic with a sub dam line of 528 over us. Plus after that you don't need -8 uppers with an easterly. Of course this all has to verify first and I'd imagine more changes closer to the the time as always is the way. Good potential and best we've seen for something lasting longer than a day or two for some time.

Just about sub 528 for most of the country at t+144 but not at t+168, personally i wouldn't be too hopeful for coastal areas with those charts yet anyway. Frontal systems will bring snow with lower upper air temps but i think its still marginal there. The easterly afterwards(if it gets established) i think would then need -8C uppers for snow showers on the coast (which does not happen until next friday on this run at t+216).

WheatenBriar

The -8 and colder uppers would be essential for Irish sea streamers to develop, that wouldn't be as relevant to 'another year' in Donegal
Snow at sea level near coasts usually can happen with warmer uppers if there's a surface cold pool firmly established or if there's a sufficient lower layer of surface cold coming in on that easterly
That usually happens when the UK already has good snow cover
Lots to watch
One theme that seems evident is an absorption of ever colder air in our neck of the woods so do ya know what if you ask me,that's going to inevitably bear lots of snowy fruit to most eventually again
In the meantime, high ground will be plastered at the very least next week I think

Harps

WheatenBriar wrote: »

The -8 and colder uppers would be essential for Irish sea streamers to develop, that wouldn't be as relevant to 'another year' in Donegal
Snow at sea level near coasts usually can happen with warmer uppers if there's a surface cold pool firmly established or if there's a sufficient lower layer of surface cold coming in on that easterly
That usually happens when the UK already has good snow cover
Lots to watch
One theme that seems evident is an absorption of ever colder air in our neck of the woods so do ya know what if you ask me,that's going to inevitably bear lots of snowy fruit to most eventually again
In the meantime, high ground will be plastered at the very least next week I think

Was wondering when we'd see you again!

Promising synoptics for anyone looking for cold weather though would agree nothing snowy for the time being. What we'd want to see is the Atlantic high becoming more amplified and the LP over the near continent intensifying and dragging in proper cold air. A long way off that but something to watch once the current excitement subsidies

AnotherYear

Trogdor wrote: »

Just about sub 528 for most of the country at t+144 but not at t+168, personally i wouldn't be too hopeful for coastal areas with those charts yet anyway. Frontal systems will bring snow with lower upper air temps but i think its still marginal there. The easterly afterwards(if it gets established) i think would then need -8C uppers for snow showers on the coast (which does not happen until next friday on this run at t+216).

Hi. Sorry no access to pc so limited on phone. The dam line is favourable before then. I didnt check the charts just ss from charts posted earlier on netweather.

And in relation to the -8 uppers I wasn't aware you meant strictly coastal areas only.

Trogdor

AnotherYear wrote: »

And in relation to the -8 uppers I wasn't aware you meant strictly coastal areas only.

Sorry yeah was thinking moreso about Dublin (and myself) :P. Certainly some more snow to come in some places over the next week or so.

Trogdor

18z GFS looking much better than the 12z in the shorter term. T+96 has a north-easterly with cold air very near.

Trogdor

Progession allows the colder air to come down that bit further at T+120. This looks much better for good frontal snow imo.

Trogdor

Very cold air starting to march across northern europe at T+186, think we'll get a snowy end to this run (however don't get too excited yet obviously it is just one run and FI territory)


EDIT:
Beautiful

Kermit.de.frog

nacho libre

classic chart.
if that last chart verifies, you could be in line for an extended cold spell, which could well stave off a surge of cold air exiting the Canadian arctic.

TheMilkyPirate

18Z is a classic.

pistolpetes11

The White Gold Army is on the March From Siberia ,A belter of FI if I do say so myself

RED L4 0TH

-10's into the SE at 228 hrs!