recession over?

Chucken

Chucken wrote: »

Was let go this evening. I knew it was coming but it doesn't make it any easier.
I'm in bits already with worry

Ah no. Sorry to hear that. Not my first time getting the P45 so I've learned not to worry about something you've no control over. It all works out in the end. Hope you sort something out soon

Esel

Highflyer13 wrote: »

Have you had any dealings with the HSE lately or been in A&E? Obviously not.

Do not suppose to know anyone else's experience.

Highflyer13 wrote: »

That is actually my main gripe with this government. Under FG/Lab a already bad health system has got far worse.

Far worse? How, exactly?

What are your other gripes?

KomradeBishop

Here's a good article on the state we're in right now, and where we are headed - we're about to start emulating proper, Japans 'Two Lost Decade's, by slipping into debt-deflation:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11154553/Dam-breaks-in-Europe-as-deflation-fears-wash-over-ECB-rhetoric.html

Europe is heading into a deflationary spiral, and if the ECB's attempts to stop that fail (which there's now a good chance they might, as Germany is going to fight the ECB's attempts to stop that), then things will get Very Bad - we will be looking at permanent (lasting decades) stagnation, unless Europe changes course (unlikely in current political environment) or breaks up, and improvement in employment levels are likely to stall.

anncoates

foggy_lad wrote: »

Only a small proportion of the population are actually feeling the pain of the recession I think. Those who left school with no leaving cert to work on building sites for €800 a week and who are now unable to get a job in tescos without their leaving cert, others who spent much more than they had because they thought the work was never ending and the good times were here forever, others who figured on their dodgey investments making them rich etc etc.

The reality is most people that saved and lived a good but frugal life during the boom are still very much on the pigs back while those who gambled and lost everything are blaming everyone they can for their own poor decisions and money management.


There has been no real recession until mortgage interest rates go above 15% like they did in the 80s.

Needs more smug references to New York shopping trips, decking and Bulgarian property.

Ray Palmer

Deleted User wrote: »

More correctly, our children's debt! The amounts owed and the low inflation rates mean that the huge debts will remain a heavy burden for generations to come.

We have turned the corner in the sense that previously every period of growth exceeded the previous growth/recession cycle, now every recession cycle will result in a decline lower than the previous recession.

In other words this growth cycle will be fairly timid and will be followed by another recession that will result in us being poorer than at the end of the last recession.

You seem to forget we were paying off our "parents" debt and cleared it prior to going into debt again. Most countries carry a debt, it is actually extremely rare not to have a debt.

The wealthiest country in the world has had a much bigger growing debt per person consistently for decades .

Not saying it a good position or that we should have gotten into the situation but it has not destroyed the country like some would have us believe.

What people forget about the property tax for example is you now pay much less stamp duty when buying now. There are some people who will moan no matter what happens.

Ray Palmer

Ray Palmer wrote: »

You seem to forget we were paying off our "parents" debt and cleared it prior to going into debt again. Most countries carry a debt, it is actually extremely rare not to have a debt.

The wealthiest country in the world has had a much bigger growing debt per person consistently for decades .

Not saying it a good position or that we should have gotten into the situation but it has not destroyed the country like some would have us believe.

What people forget about the property tax for example is you now pay much less stamp duty when buying now. There are some people who will moan no matter what happens.

Long term debt is one thing, but rolling over old debts into the future is another, the burden on future generations will be much larger than on previous ones. Also we appear to be entering a period of extended deflation (or weak growth) witch will in fact mean that the burden will be greater as there is no inflation to erode it.


As for property tax verses stamp duty, stamp duty was factored in when you bought and sold property, the property tax is payable every year.

If you didn't move house then you didn't pay any stamp duty at all, but you now pay property tax each year.

Tarzana

anncoates wrote: »

Needs more smug references to New York shopping trips, decking and Bulgarian property.

Foggy lad's post is so simplistic. The collapse of the construction sector had a ripple effect on others sectors. It isn't the cartoonish scenario he paints. And a lot of people that lost their jobs in construction and related industries had been there for years and had never lost the run of themselves. I have plenty of this cohort in my own family.

And then of course for new school leavers and graduates in the recession things weren't/still aren't that great at all.

tomwaterford

foggy_lad wrote: »

Only a small proportion of the population are actually feeling the pain of the recession I think. Those who left school with no leaving cert to work on building sites for €800 a week and who are now unable to get a job in tescos without their leaving cert, others who spent much more than they had because they thought the work was never ending and the good times were here forever, others who figured on their dodgey investments making them rich etc etc.

The reality is most people that saved and lived a good but frugal life during the boom are still very much on the pigs back while those who gambled and lost everything are blaming everyone they can for their own poor decisions and money management.


There has been no real recession until mortgage interest rates go above 15% like they did in the 80s.

ya...we'll just ignore the fact that almost everyone my age around here has emigrated....half my cousins as well!!!
of them around 5 worked in the building boom

the reality is that people most affected are the lower paid and those leaving collages to find nearly all the jobs are nearly now mickey mouse jobbridge/low paid <e10 an hour

ya...no recession around here atal:rolleyes::rolleyes:
near on economic wipeout and for some to say its no effect is definitely not from around the part of the country im in:mad::mad:

Chucken wrote: »

Was let go this evening. I knew it was coming but it doesn't make it any easier.
I'm in bits already with worry [/QUOTE

jesus....I hope you find something....I know its a bit crap....esp with xmas on the horizon

Cantremember

Any retailer dependent on disposable income will tell you quick enough that there is no lift in the economy. It's Aldi and Penneys that are doing business. The retired on decent pensions are living well and that's the age group you see taking holidays and short breaks around the country.

hiFidelity

There seems to be plenty of work for country and western bands when I was in Ireland last.

Geuze

doc11 wrote: »

When you include pensioners and the various disability and lone parents payments and there are far more than 400,000 dependent on welfare.

Half the population are receiving, or are beneficiaries, of weekly SW payments.

Mahogany

yipeeeee wrote: »

Last time I checked there was 54 people sleeping on the streets.

Yeah we have it real bad.

Agreed.

Friend said to me once; "Times are really getting tough, we might have to get rid of the second car"

Irish people don't know what real poverty is.

There's a lot of wealth floating around this country, believe me.

rob316

Maybe the capital is starting to see an upturn but the rest of us I don't think so.

I deal business to business in mu profession and the level Of start ups are very low still and many don't survive past the first 6-12 months.

Lots of businesses who have been swimming in debt have finally been closed by the banks. Retail businesses stuck in long term leases from the boom have expired and chosen to simply close.

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

Phoebas

The recession is technically over but it'll take a long time before the economy has recovered.

I think most people agree that the outlook is better now.

mcko

keep telling yourself that, I earn in nearly €70,000 a year with a wife and two kids, she doesn't work, I have a modest mortgage in my opinion €1200 pm but I am not exactly living the hight life I am not starving but if my brother in law who lives in Germany tells me I would live like a king there on my wages, went to the doctor this week and needed meds €165 in total, thank you very much.
The last few years my standard of living has been really chipped away especially the USC, if I was younger I would be gone nothing in this country but debt and taxes, went to London last year for a few days and the kids fell in love with the place hope they go when they are older.
Kip of a country.
Only fools and horses work!!!!!!!

MRnotlob606

Going to be a tough budget.

Tasden

yipeeeee wrote: »

Sorry 87 in 2012.

Assuming it's gone up or gone down it wouldn't be by much.

In the grand scheme of things that's such a low figure.

People really don't have it that bad if there is 400,000 people on welfare but they all have a roof over their head.

A roof over their head could be an overcrowded hostel or a friends house where they know they've outstayed their welcome but have nowhere else to go. But yeah as long as they have a roof over their head they're fine, their children don't need a place to call home.

the_monkey

Doff wrote: »

Have a child, claim loan parents and enjoy the 600 a week you get. Who needs a job in this country with the SW benefits. Don't worry us workers will keep you covered.

Is it REALLY that much per child ??


f*cking disgracefull ...

wilser

the_monkey wrote: »

Is it REALLY that much per child ??


f*cking disgracefull ...

Well it says so on the internet so it must be true

cloudatlas

Mahogany wrote: »

Agreed.

Friend said to me once; "Times are really getting tough, we might have to get rid of the second car"

Irish people don't know what real poverty is.

There's a lot of wealth floating around this country, believe me.

If you are or were in the right situation before the **** hit then yes but there are a lot of folks that weren't and young people now feeling the squeeze. Does this even need to be said?

miece16

Family size Monthly rate, €
One child 130.00
Two children 260.00
Three children 390.00
Four children 520.00
Five children 650.00
Six children 780.00
Seven children 910.00
Eight children 1,040

go have 8 kids and watch the dollars roll in

cloudatlas

The low corporation tax being scraped won't be a shock to the economy in the short term?

jillymayr

OP as far as I know the recession ended about 3 years ago

jillymayr

jillymayr wrote: »

OP as far as I know the recession ended about 3 years ago

The slide down may have ended but there are many who are still considerably less well off than they were a decade ago, we may well have taken several steps down the stairs and have stopped or may even taken one or two steps back up.

But at the end of the day we're still several steps lower than before.

KomradeBishop

Why are people blind to the deflationary shock Europe is risking though? If we hit that, without sufficient action taken by Europe (not looking good so far), we're looking at recession again. Things are starting to go bad again now.

foggy_lad

Chucken wrote: »

Did you even read that?
Focus Ireland estimates that there are up to 5,000 people at any one time who are homeless in Ireland.

People in bedsit type accommodation are considered homeless, anyone who is not a home owner or not secure in their accommodation with a long lease is homeless to these people because it suits their agenda which is raising as much as they can to feed and house as many as they can.

yipeeeee wrote: »

Did you even read it?

I said sleeping on the streets in my first post.

Read that link again. 87 people sleeping on the streets not 5000.

Many of those sleeping on the streets are doing so by choice because they won't stay in hostels and are not suitable for conventional housing units because of drug/alcohol abuse or mental health issues.

Tarzana wrote: »

This is incredibly black and white. And the recession hasn't been kind to those who left college or school just as or after the recession hit. As well as anyone who lost their job later in life because of it. Others sectors were hit too, not just construction.

Indeed but my view of recession is being told I should leave school at 15 to get a job and help out my parents, I was told this by a senior grade community welfare officer in the eastern health board area. People expect too much now because they are used to earning hundreds of euro but back in the 80s IR£250 was a good weekly wage and part time workers were happy getting IR£2-3 an hour.

Now school leavers are expecting to walk into jobs paying €4000/month and are still not happy, Back when interest rates were topping 16-18% a first year apprentice got £30/week and had to work 40 hours for that and more in many jobs!

This may sound very Monty python like but honestly people don't realise when they have it good, They don't know any real hardships. all are sheltered and fed and children are put through school and college.

Esel

foggy_lad wrote: »

Now school leavers are expecting to walk into jobs paying €4000/month and are still not happy

Fee-paying school leavers who don't have to submit a CV (to get 'kicked' into a job in Daddy or Mammy's friend's firm) I hope! Send them to Canada to run the family estate for a few years, I say. Builds character, and all that...

foggy_lad wrote: »

Back when interest rates were topping 16-18%...

18%??? Was that Nationwide or some other sub-prime lender (not called that then, of course)?

foggy_lad wrote: »

This may sound very Monty python like but honestly people don't realise when they have it good, They don't know any real hardships. all are sheltered and fed and children are put through school and college.

You think that was bad? Try eating a handful of gravel before walking backwards to school, with John Cleese kicking you in the head (accidentally, of course) while doing his funny walk. When you got to school, your slate was broken, and the chalk was wet... Then you had to hop home, with one leg tied to the other... When you got home, the hole was filled in, and your dog had died.

Tarzana

foggy_lad wrote: »

Now school leavers are expecting to walk into jobs paying €4000/month and are still not happy

Are you actually being serious here? Da fúck?

KomradeBishop

Zincsnow wrote: »

Do you have figures for comparison over the last few years to base this on?

Yes - here is Ireland heading for deflation (less than 0% inflation - not far off; we already had a brief period of it early this year):
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/ireland-inflation-cpi.png?s=iecpiyoy&d1=20110101&d2=20141231

Here is Europe heading for deflation:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/euro-area-inflation-cpi.png?s=eccpemuy&d1=20110101&d2=20141231

If we hit deflation and the ECB doesn't take adequate action (not looking good at the moment, the ECB's response has been pretty underwhelming), then we're going to get stuck in a deflationary spiral and debt-deflation, which will sap economic growth and create long-term stagnation.

This happened to Japan, and is a big part of their Lost Two Decade's.


Now, hopefully the ECB and Europe take proper action to stop this slip into deflation (again - not looking good), but if they don't, we're in for even more serious economic trouble, and potentially semi-permanent stagnation, like Japan.