Next (2016) Gov: FF, FG & Lab? (Bankers Gov?)

Slydice

Given recent opinion polls and recent election results, I think it looks like there's a possibility the next government will be made up of Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour in coalition.

They are the Bankers parties. They play ball for the bankers and big boys. If they can't make a government with 2, the 3 will band together to keep the status quo (well, the bankers status quo).

What dye reckon?

I've read some threads here and there where people discuss possible ways FF and FG could do a coalition.

I know Lab have done coalitions with FF and FG seperatly.

So.. it doesn't seem impossible.

I imagine, it's a step that won't be needed if some miracle happens and the current government can somehow throw loads of money into peoples pockets and get loads of good jobs and start somehow getting the young people to come back from their emmigrations. Then they can go back to business as usual (fixin the road)... fleecing us all while pretending to fleece each other.

So, how will you feel when (ok... when/if ) your beloved FF, FG or Lab go into coalition after the next election?

Harry Angstrom

I can't see FG and FF ever forming a coalition. It would be short term gain for very long term pain. Labour will be also-rans after the next election. They won't have enough seats to influence anything.

johnnyskeleton

My money is on the next govt being FG/Lab coalition again. I dont see much by way of alternative at the moment, with FF and SF being as bad as each other

Gael23

Labour will be irrevalant after 2016. The swing towards independents will be a problem for any coalition but my bet is on a rather short lived FF/FG coalition

DazMarz

This is what will happen. Have no doubt. This is the emergence of a true left/right divide in Irish politics for the first time since the foundation of the State.

I predict that FG will get about 55 seats or so, FF about 35, Labour about 10... that's ballpark of 100 or so seats, which would give them a commanding and comfortable majority and is a far more attractive prospect than a coalition with Sinn Féin.

No new party will make significant gains, and a rash of Indo's cannot form a government. People will, perhaps begrudgingly, give votes or at least preferences to the triumvirate of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Labour. It would be seen as a "safe" option for many, and these 3 parties will transfer very well amongst each other for the first time in history.

Today in Dublin-South-West and Roscommon-South-Leitrim, the transfer toxicity of Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil became stunningly apparent. A lot of Labour voters who got alienated in the last few years would seem to be the most likely to turn to SF. However, when an alternative was placed before them, they turned to that instead of transferring to Sinn Féin. The simple fact of the matter is that people are not ready to go back to Fianna Fáil. Both the poll-toppers in the by-elections did not win, due to transfer toxicity.

A general election, is a different election, however. I can tell you, despite all the populist anger out there, 2 budgets stand between this moment in time and the next election. 2 budgets where sweeteners can be offered... and a lot of people will swallow it and vote for at least one of the big 3. Bear in mind, that personal popularity in a candidate's respective constituency also plays a huge role, so also factor that in (in some cases anyway)

Gael23

I would agree with the majority of that. But a 3 way coalition will last a matter of months.

Sierra Oscar

Don't rule out a SF / Lab / hard left independents coalition. Expect SF to harp on about the creation of a second republic in 2016.

It won't last long, but it could happen.

DazMarz

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Don't rule out a SF / Lab / hard left independents coalition. Expect SF to harp on about the creation of a second republic in 2016.

It won't last long, but it could happen.

God forbid that happens. I don't think they'll get the necessary numbers to pull something like that off, however... but jesus, no. Anything is better than that!!!

Gael23

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Don't rule out a SF / Lab / hard left independents coalition. Expect SF to harp on about the creation of a second republic in 2016.

It won't last long, but it could happen.

This would fall even quicker than the 3 way coalition. To be honest I think we are heading for a series of unstable coalitions similar to 1982 when there were 3 elections in 18 months.

washman3

A Government comprising of FG/FF/LAB would be another God-send for the speculators and developers, and would surely spark off another almighty booze-up akin to the one they had when NAMA was formed. They simply couldn't believe their luck...:mad:

Berserker

Looking at the results from today, it looks like we are going to end up with a mix of all sorts. I was under the impression that the SF candidate was a certainty in South Dublin. His vote collapsed when it came to transfers. The same seemed to happen to the FF candidate in Roscommon. The turnout for both was very low, dreadful in South Dublin.

I still think the next government will be FF with SF being their lackey. They might need some independents to get the job done and I would worry about the stability of that unit. FF & FG could go in together but it's hard to see that happening.

washman3 wrote: »

A Government comprising of <> would be another God-send for the speculators and developers, and would surely spark off another almighty booze-up akin to the one they had when NAMA was formed. They simply couldn't believe their luck...:mad:

The above is going to happen anyway. It doesn't matter who gets in. The people want it. The troubles of the past will be a distant memory when the cheap credit start flowing and people can go back to buying their his and her new cars each year. People seems to forget that ULA, SF etc were proposing even bigger giveaways during the last boom.

Bang_Bang

DazMarz wrote: »

Today in Dublin-South-West and Roscommon-South-Leitrim, the transfer toxicity of Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil became stunningly apparent. A lot of Labour voters who got alienated in the last few years would seem to be the most likely to turn to SF. However, when an alternative was placed before them, they turned to that instead of transferring to Sinn Féin. The simple fact of the matter is that people are not ready to go back to Fianna Fáil. Both the poll-toppers in the by-elections did not win, due to transfer toxicity.

A general election, is a different election, however. I can tell you, despite all the populist anger out there, 2 budgets stand between this moment in time and the next election. 2 budgets where sweeteners can be offered... and a lot of people will swallow it and vote for at least one of the big 3. Bear in mind, that personal popularity in a candidate's respective constituency also plays a huge role, so also factor that in (in some cases anyway)

I think you're right here, King had it nailed until the transfers, the toxic transfers put Paul Murphy ahead in DSW after count 8, combined with the low turnout. I would say the government will take stock of the march and elections yesterday and will give a few sweeteners to the working poor and middle income earners to win them back in 2016, the electorate have very short memories in this country. The water protest yesterday makes me believe that there may be something in terms of "waivers" possibly handed out either in this budget or the next to keep IW firm and in place in the minds of the electorate.

SF in DSW still had more of a vote that FF, FG and Labour combined yesterday, even though King didn't get in. A lot of commentators are calling it an election on water charges.

jank

The issue surrounding IW will be long forgotten by most in 18 months time. However, the fact that the two main opposition parties failed to get any seat on Friday should be a worry. Then again a GE will be different.

FG/FF is the bookies favourite and the one will be entering government before the 2016 Easter commemoration. People think it would be a big deal but people thought that a coalition government in 1989 between FF and PD was a big deal as well, now its just an everyday thing. I have been saying this since 2011 and I think I will be proved right!

Bang_Bang

jank wrote: »

The issue surrounding IW will be long forgotten by most in 18 months time. However, the fact that the two main opposition parties failed to get any seat on Friday should be a worry. Then again a GE will be different.

FG/FF is the bookies favourite and the one will be entering government before the 2016 Easter commemoration. People think it would be a big deal but people thought that a coalition government in 1989 between FF and PD was a big deal as well, now its just an everyday thing. I have been saying this since 2011 and I think I will be proved right!

FG/FF will join forces to try and stop SF/AAA/IND getting into power in 2016. The sweeteners will come thick and fast as of tomorrow, rumors of tax cuts, Christmas bonuses, waivers etc... will be everywhere.

Berserker

Bang_Bang wrote: »

FG/FF will join forces to try and stop SF/AAA/IND getting into power in 2016. The sweeteners will come thick and fast as of tomorrow, rumors of tax cuts, Christmas bonuses, waivers etc... will be everywhere.

FF and FG won't join forces before the next election, if at all. I can't see AAA/SF/IND ever managing to come up with a programme for government. Too many of the independent and AAA candidates are single issue candidates.

Icepick

Who are 'the Bankers' and do they have a secret handshake?

michael999999

Icepick wrote: »

Who are 'the Bankers' and do they have a secret handshake?

Along with ' the developers' they could be seen drinking champagne with Michael martin and other Fianna fail stalwarts in the Galway tent.

Icepick

michael999999 wrote: »

Along with ' the developers' they could be seen drinking champagne with Michael martin and other Fianna fail stalwarts in the Galway tent.

Names and indictments?

MouseTail

Bang_Bang wrote: »

FG/FF will join forces to try and stop SF/AAA/IND getting into power in 2016. The sweeteners will come thick and fast as of tomorrow, rumors of tax cuts, Christmas bonuses, waivers etc... will be everywhere.

The FF grass roots will really struggle with playing Tanaiste to a FG Taoiseach. I can't see it happening.

DazMarz

For years, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have been controlling county councils by entering into coalition with each other.

This is very much the case currently in counties such as Carlow, Cavan, Clare, Cork, Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown (FF, FG and the Greens there), Galway, Kerry, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Leitrim, Longford, Mayo, Meath, Offaly, Roscommon, Sligo, Tipperary, Westmeath, Wexford and Wicklow (FF, FG and an Independent technical group there).

Limerick City/County Council and Waterford City/County Council are also governed by a FF/FG coalition (with possible support from others).

With very few exceptions (notably in South Dublin, Fingal, Dublin City), Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil control county councils together and so on. This can cause some controversy, but by and large it is a system that works and gets things done.

It is an arrangement that has been going on for years. It has worked to a tee at local level.

Following the next general election, it will be a matter of necessity and the two shall take the next step. Collaboration at local level will lead to coalition at national level. With possibly what remains of the Labour party being brought in to shore up numbers and give extra stability.

hmmm

The results of the blasphemy poll in the IT today was interesting

Opposition to the proposal was significantly higher among Sinn Féin voters than those of other parties.

This to me suggests that SF has picked up an awful lot of the core FF vote, which would be pretty conservative in nature. Certainly an awful lot more conservative than the parties positions on many social issues.

That vote is soft. It could return to FF very easily.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

MouseTail

Wrt local Council, the Mayoral position rotates annually, so no one is really playing second fiddle as is the case in national politics. That blasphemy poll is interesting, I always believed the bulk of new SF support was socially conservative, the Party have some difficult grappling to do.

maccored

That was in principle, before the actual details where distributed. SF then voted against it when the details were given and yet labour went on to support all the things they had voted against.

Permabear wrote: »

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gandalf

OP the only way I see FF & FG ever going into Government together is if FG are the bigger party and Sinn Fein are the only other alternative.

FF would jump into bed with a party of Pedophiles looking to drop the age of consent to six if it meant they could get their noses at the trough again so they would be a shoe in for SF.

I don't believe Labour will have the numbers after the next General Election to matter either way.

Loafing Oaf

Don't see why Labour needs to be involved, FF+FG are 95% sure to have the numbers to form a govt, and if they're a few seats short they will be able to recruit some Michael-Lowry type independents. Also I wouldn't give attach the Orwellian connotations to such a development that the OP evidently does, FF and FG are openly conservative parties and the voters must be happy with what they are offering as they've been giving them two-thirds+ of the seats in the Dail since the foundation of the state...

If the current govt is not reelected then the only other option I can see is SF+FF+Lab but it's far from clear as yet that FF and SF are willing to tango...

DazMarz

Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin in coalition? May god be with us, because nobody else will...

Godge

DazMarz wrote: »

Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin in coalition? May god be with us, because nobody else will...

going by the opinion polls there are two government options likely to be available to the public next time out.

FF/SF led by Eamonn Cuiv and Gerry Adams.
FG/LAb led by Enda Kenny and Joan Burton.

Loafing Oaf

Godge wrote: »

going by the opinion polls there are two government options likely to be available to the public next time out.

FF/SF led by Eamonn Cuiv and Gerry Adams.
FG/LAb led by Enda Kenny and Joan Burton.

Good chance that neither of these will have the numbers, even with the support of Inds in the latter case or Lab + Inds in the former, in which case FG/FF becomes the only game in town , IMO...

Godge

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Good chance that neither of these will have the numbers, even with the support of Inds in the latter case or Lab + Inds in the former, in which case FG/FF becomes the only game in town , IMO...

If OCuiv or an acolyte of his is in charge of FF, they won't go into coalition with FG, that would be ruining his grandfather's legacy, instead you would see FF, SF and a heap of independents.

Loafing Oaf

Godge wrote: »

If OCuiv or an acolyte of his is in charge of FF, they won't go into coalition with FG, that would be ruining his grandfather's legacy, instead you would see FF, SF and a heap of independents.

PP are predicting 32 seats each for SF and FF, in that case Labour support would certainly be required to form a government. But it is not yet clear as yet that SF would be prepared to go into govt with FF. On the back of their failure in DSW, they may well decide that leaving open the option of coalition with FF or FG (and they've all but ruled out the latter) would leave them vulnerable to attack on their left flank...