Next (2016) Gov: FF, FG & Lab? (Bankers Gov?)

Godge

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

PP are predicting 32 seats each for SF and FF, in that case Labour support would certainly be required to form a government. But it is not yet clear as yet that SF would be prepared to go into govt with FF. On the back of their failure in DSW, they may well decide that leaving open the option of coalition with FF or FG (and they've all but ruled out the latter) would leave them vulnerable to attack on their left flank...

Assuming an election just before Easter 2016, they will be climbing all over each other to be on that plinth.

DazMarz

Sinn Féin's supporters would bolt and baulk at the mere thought of going into coalition with Fianna Fáil. To Sinn Féin supporters, Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael are something akin to Satan, so I can't imagine that it will happen.

Godge

DazMarz wrote: »

Sinn Féin's supporters would bolt and baulk at the mere thought of going into coalition with Fianna Fáil. To Sinn Féin supporters, Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael are something akin to Satan, so I can't imagine that it will happen.

for Sinn Fein, the prize of standing outside the GPO for Easter 2016 is too much to turn down. All sorts of policies will be sacrificed for that.

DazMarz

Godge wrote: »

for Sinn Fein, the prize of standing outside the GPO for Easter 2016 is too much to turn down. All sorts of policies will be sacrificed for that.

I wonder... even if a lot of their core support would brand them traitors?

Probably be the swiftest end to Sinn Féin if they did go into coalition with either of Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil. I know a lot of SF supporters, and they're just so venomously anti-FF/FG, I don't think SF would survive after that. It would be to the benefit of any other left-wing party if SF did this. And as daft as some of the SF policymakers might be, I cannot see this one happening at all.

For Forks Sake

Godge wrote: »

FF/SF led by Eamonn Cuiv and Gerry Adams.

I think I've been a bit sick at that prospect.

Godge

DazMarz wrote: »

I wonder... even if a lot of their core support would brand them traitors?

Probably be the swiftest end to Sinn Féin if they did go into coalition with either of Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil. I know a lot of SF supporters, and they're just so venomously anti-FF/FG, I don't think SF would survive after that. It would be to the benefit of any other left-wing party if SF did this. And as daft as some of the SF policymakers might be, I cannot see this one happening at all.

They would be too busy celebrating Dessie Ellis or Martin Ferris as Minister for Justice.

For Forks Sake wrote: »

I think I've been a bit sick at that prospect.

Watch this space.

Muahahaha

I reckon SF will stay out of govt on the next cycle and they will hope to see a FG-FF coalition in order to keep SF out of power. A FG-FF coalition would not be good for either party and SF would build their support further and then finally enter government in 2020, but as the larger party in a coalition. I'm just speculating but think that Adams & McGuinness are very wary of entering government as a junior party having seen how the PD's, Greens and Labour have all been swallowed up by larger parties in coalition. Staying out of government in 2016 and hoping FF-FG eat each other in the meantime is probably their best strategy right now IMO.

Loafing Oaf

Muahahaha wrote: »

I reckon SF will stay out of govt on the next cycle and they will hope to see a FG-FF coalition in order to keep SF out of power. A FG-FF coalition would not be good for either party and SF would build their support further and then finally enter government in 2020, but as the larger party in a coalition. I'm just speculating but think that Adams & McGuinness are very wary of entering government as a junior party having seen how the PD's, Greens and Labour have all been swallowed up by larger parties in coalition. Staying out of government in 2016 and hoping FF-FG eat each other in the meantime is probably their best strategy right now IMO.

This is what I think will happen too. Pace Godge, I don't think SF particularly care about 'official' commemorations of 1916 and other anniversaries, AFAIK they have their own ceremonies on these occasions. That begs the question of what do they care about at this point in their history, and the answer seems to be the formation of a left-wing govt in the republic, i.e. one that does not involve FF or FG, and the approach you outline seems to be the way to make that happen.

The difficulty that may then arise is if FF refuses point blank to deal with FG, how is a government going to be formed? On whom would the onus lie to back down? If the parties went to Michael D in that scenario and he refused to dissolve the Dail, saying another election would be unlikely to change the picture significantly, what would happen? I suspect the pressure on Micheal Martin to cut a deal with Enda would become irresistible but I don't know...

Godge

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

This is what I think will happen too. Pace Godge, I don't think SF particularly care about 'official' commemorations of 1916 and other anniversaries, AFAIK they have their own ceremonies on these occasions. That begs the question of what do they care about at this point in their history, and the answer seems to be the formation of a left-wing govt in the republic, i.e. one that does not involve FF or FG, and the approach you outline seems to be the way to make that happen.

The difficulty that may then arise is if FF refuses point blank to deal with FG, how is a government going to be formed? On whom would the onus lie to back down? If the parties went to Michael D in that scenario and he refused to dissolve the Dail, saying another election would be unlikely to change the picture significantly, what would happen? I suspect the pressure on Micheal Martin to cut a deal with Enda would become irresistible but I don't know...

We can all speculate but look at the evidence, look at what SF did in the City Council

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-secures-lord-mayor-position-for-easter-2016-1.1823943

FG weren't interested in a deal for policy reasons. SF were interested in a deal for a seat on the podium.

Berserker

DazMarz wrote: »

Sinn Féin's supporters would bolt and baulk at the mere thought of going into coalition with Fianna Fáil. To Sinn Féin supporters, Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael are something akin to Satan, so I can't imagine that it will happen.

Not true. SF are desperate to get into government down here. If they want to get into power, then partnership with FF or FG is the only realistic option. As we witnessed in South Dublin last week, SF are a disaster when it comes to transfers, so I would be very surprised it they get the amount of seats that are predicated. The election last week was supposed to be theirs by a comfortable margin but they blew it. Bad mouthing Murphy was a cynical move which back fired badly on them.

Idbatterim

FF arent too dissimilar to Labour, they are a "whatever you are having yourself" party... Either way, I hope FG win the most seats, because they are the only one who will apply the breaks a bit and arent an anti work party...

Slydice

Looking more likely this weekend. Still 2 years away though.

Millward Brown poll this weekend has the FF, FG, Lab government looking likely: http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/1101/656305-poll-politics/
Sinn Fein 26%, Independents/Others 23%, Fine Gael 22%, Fianna Fáil 20%, Labour 7%.

They only have 49% in that but once the voters are broken into stuff like the water charges and made fearful on unknown consequences, they'll probably get back above 50% or sure... I'm sure they can buy an independent or two :-)

Paddy Power have their odds up: http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647

The favourites are:
FG/FF 6/4
FG/Lab 5/2
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 11/4

I'd say that'll be a FG/FF/Lab 11/4.

Godge

Slydice wrote: »

Looking more likely this weekend. Still 2 years away though.

Millward Brown poll this weekend has the FF, FG, Lab government looking likely: http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/1101/656305-poll-politics/
Sinn Fein 26%, Independents/Others 23%, Fine Gael 22%, Fianna Fáil 20%, Labour 7%.

They only have 49% in that but once the voters are broken into stuff like the water charges and made fearful on unknown consequences, they'll probably get back above 50% or sure... I'm sure they can buy an independent or two :-)

Paddy Power have their odds up: http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647

The favourites are:
FG/FF 6/4
FG/Lab 5/2
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 11/4

I'd say that'll be a FG/FF/Lab 11/4.

If that poll is right, a SF/FF coalition has 46%. I am sure Cuiv would do a transfer deal with MLD and that would see them home if there was an election tomorrow.

twowheelsgood

Godge wrote: »

If that poll is right, a SF/FF coalition has 46%. I am sure Cuiv would do a transfer deal with MLD and that would see them home if there was an election tomorrow.

I don't think SF would want to be in government next time around, though I'm sure many of them will be tempted by 1916.

I think they are happy to grow steadily for another few years and hope to be the senior party in government when they do go for it.

Slydice

A bankers government looking more likely after this weekend.

RTE reporting there are three new polls:
http://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2014/1220/668218-latest-opinion-polls/

Polls carried out for three Sunday newspapers

They are the Sunday Business Post (Red C Poll), Sunday Times (Behaviour and Attitudes Poll) and Sunday Independent (Millward Brown Poll).

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Ind./Others|Sinn Fein|Fine Gael|Fianna Fáil|Labour
Sunday Business Post|30|24|21|19|6
Sunday Times|31|22|24|18|5
Sunday Independent|34|21|22|18|5


So FG/FF/Lab have either 46%, 47% or 45%. No problem for them to wrangle an independent or two. Surely you can you think of 1 or 2 who've "played ball" with the government in the past All they ask for is a bypass or a hospital here and there Come on, at most it'll be a casino

Paddy Power have tightened their odds on FG/FF/Any other party(s): http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 7/4
FG/FF 9/4
FF/SF 10/3

Once again, I'd say that'll be a FG/FF/Lab 7/4.

Sand

I'd find it hard to imagine Labour being involved in any significant way. They'll be a tiny fringe party after the next election. I cant see FG or FF giving up any ministerial positions to them or indulging their demands. FG and FF will find it somewhat difficult to find common ground as they'll both have an interest in defining their differences for a future election - Labour would be a bridge too far.

washman3

washman3 wrote: »

A Government comprising of FG/FF/LAB would be another God-send for the speculators and developers, and would surely spark off another almighty booze-up akin to the one they had when NAMA was formed. They simply couldn't believe their luck...:mad:

I posted this 2 months ago.
The contractor that supplied that famous Tent at the Galway Races will be delighted. His biggest problem will be securing a tent big enough when all 3 combine, as all 3 were up to their necks in the property bubble.

Will anyone seriously give Labour a mandate to be part of a Government in this country again.? If they do, then we deserve everything we get.
The other 2 will get votes from the 'usual suspects' for the foreseeable future, the semi illiterate civil war gombeens.

Slydice

Another poll. This time by Paddy Power: http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0114/672484-politics-poll/

The first Red C poll of 2015 for Paddy Power shows gains for both parties.

Thread about it here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057361777

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Ind./Others|Fine Gael|Sinn Fein|Fianna Fáil|Labour
Paddy Power Poll|29|24|21|18|8


So FG/FF/Lab have 50% bang on. No need for them to wrangle an independent or two

Paddy Power have tightened their odds (again) on FG/FF/Any other party(s): http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 11/8
FG/FF 9/4
FF/SF 5/1

Once again, I'd say that'll be a FG/FF/Lab 11/8.

First result when I search banks on google news, FG are still playing ball with them:
Michael Noonan: Strategy for dealing with banks is working
http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/michael-noonan-strategy-for-dealing-with-banks-is-working-1.2062113

At the very least, the State should recover all of the money it has invested so far
Mon, Jan 12, 2015, 00:02
First published: Mon, Jan 12, 2015, 00:02
The overarching objective of the banking strategy I set out in March 2011 was to have a functioning, stable banking system operating in support of the Irish economy and to reduce the cost of the banking bailout to the Irish taxpayer.

________________________________________

________________________________________


A different headline at the moment
________________________________________

________________________________________

BoJack Horseman

Slydice wrote: »

A different headline at the moment

At the moment?

Godge

Slydice wrote: »

Another poll. This time by Paddy Power: http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0114/672484-politics-poll/


Thread about it here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057361777

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Ind./Others|Fine Gael|Sinn Fein|Fianna Fáil|Labour
Paddy Power Poll|29|24|21|18|8


So FG/FF/Lab have 50% bang on. No need for them to wrangle an independent or two

Paddy Power have tightened their odds (again) on FG/FF/Any other party(s): http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 11/8
FG/FF 9/4
FF/SF 5/1

Once again, I'd say that'll be a FG/FF/Lab 11/8.

I would be interested in FG/Lab/Greens at 22/1 or what wasn't included which was FG/Lab/Independents (not SF/FF)

delthedriver

FF & SF ????????

Surely not ?? Unless FF are desperate to get back into power

Loafing Oaf

Godge wrote: »

I would be interested in FG/Lab/Greens at 22/1 or what wasn't included which was FG/Lab/Independents (not SF/FF)

I'd imagine FG/Lab = FG/Lab/Inds for betting purposes.

I'd be tempted by an FG minority govt at 33/1, as I think another 'Tallaght strategy' may be in the offing...

delthedriver

www.thejournal.ie/micheal-martin-sinn-fein-ira-1837211-

Dec2014/Micheál Martin: The IRA ‘calls the shots’ in Sinn Féin


As I thought earlier, FF & SF are unlikely to become bedfellows !

Loafing Oaf

delthedriver wrote: »

www.thejournal.ie/micheal-martin-sinn-fein-ira-1837211-

Dec2014/Micheál Martin: The IRA ‘calls the shots’ in Sinn Féin


As I thought earlier, FF & SF are unlikely to become bedfellows !

But he has ruled out a deal with FG in even more categorical terms and...we'll have to have a government somehow...

Godge

delthedriver wrote: »

www.thejournal.ie/micheal-martin-sinn-fein-ira-1837211-

Dec2014/Micheál Martin: The IRA ‘calls the shots’ in Sinn Féin


As I thought earlier, FF & SF are unlikely to become bedfellows !

FF are the first choice of SF voters for a coalition partner, so don't rule it out.

delthedriver

We live in interesting times.....................!

DeJa VooDoo

The next government will end the pathetically manufactured 'civil war divide' between the sham entities that are FFail and FG.

irishfeen

FF and FG will not go into government with each other in any scenario after the next GE (The grassroots would never allow it! - Blueshirts and beloved FF is unthinkable to both).. Both parties will know opposition would be better then coalition in the long term - a rainbow of say FF/SF/Ind could be very short lived and in opposition their polling would likely rise significantly with instability.

I think FG will get the highest vote and TD's but may very well find themselves in opposition - we could very well see a government made up of SF/FF/Ind .. As I said a very short lived government indeed as their economic policies come crumbling down.

Loafing Oaf

irishfeen wrote: »

FF and FG will not go into government with each other in any scenario after the next GE (The grassroots would never allow it! - Blueshirts and beloved FF is unthinkable to both).. Both parties will know opposition would be better then coalition in the long term - a rainbow of say FF/SF/Ind could be very short lived and in opposition their polling would likely rise significantly with instability.

I think FG will get the highest vote and TD's but may very well find themselves in opposition - we could very well see a government made up of SF/FF/Ind .. As I said a very short lived government indeed as their economic policies come crumbling down.

It's far from certain that SF would be prepared to get it on with FF; the hostility between their respective grassroots is as intense in its own way as that between FF and FG, with the two contesting the label of Republican. If SF make it clear after the next GE that they're not interested in a deal with FG or FF, then I think the pressure for an FF/FG arrangement (not necessarily a full-fledged coalition) will become irresistible...

irishfeen

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

It's far from certain that SF would be prepared to get it on with FF; the hostility between their respective grassroots is as intense in its own way as that between FF and FG, with the two contesting the label of Republican. If SF make it clear after the next GE that they're not interested in a deal with FG or FF, then I think the pressure for an FF/FG arrangement (not necessarily a full-fledged coalition) will become irresistible...

SF could very well have more TD's then Fianna Fáil meaning they would lead the government for the very first time .. Now you talk about irrisistable - they will not turn down that chance for sure!