Next (2016) Gov: FF, FG & Lab? (Bankers Gov?)

BoJack Horseman

irishfeen wrote: »

SF could very well have more TD's then Fianna Fáil meaning they would lead the government for the very first time .. Now you talk about irrisistable - they will not turn down that chance for sure!

At the very best, SF might get 24-28 TDs... tops.

You can't lead a government with less than a fifth of parliamentarians.

delthedriver

irishfeen wrote: »

SF could very well have more TD's then Fianna Fáil meaning they would lead the government for the very first time .. Now you talk about irrisistable - they will not turn down that chance for sure!

At the end of the day we are talking about politicians, whether FG, Lab, FF, SF, The Monster Raving Loony Party............ they will do a deal with the Devil so long as they can be in power.

Most recent example 4 years ago in the UK , Liberal Democrats had Conservatives and Labour on their knees. At the time political commentators said Conervative / Lib Dem government would not last a full term.

So no matter what the outcome in 2016, you can be sure there will be plenty of Gerrymandering going on behind the scenes!!

Muahahaha

Godge wrote: »

I would be interested in FG/Lab/Greens at 22/1 or what wasn't included which was FG/Lab/Independents (not SF/FF)

You must like the long shots Godge

How many seats can the Greens conceivably get? Not being smart but the only Green I've actually seen on TV in the last three years has been Eamon Ryan, he pops up in the media quite a bit so at this stage it feels as if Eamonn is the Green Party. . I filled up petrol across from Trevor Sargeant about six months ago but haven't seen a sign of him anywhere in the media. Do they have a few other viable candidates to run apart from Eamon? And what are his chances of winning a seat, I'm not sure but is his constituency the one in south Dublin that is being chopped from 5 seats to 3 ?

Godge

Muahahaha wrote: »

You must like the long shots Godge

How many seats can the Greens conceivably get? Not being smart but the only Green I've actually seen on TV in the last three years has been Eamon Ryan, he pops up in the media quite a bit so at this stage it feels as if Eamonn is the Green Party. . I filled up petrol across from Trevor Sargeant about six months ago but haven't seen a sign of him anywhere in the media. Do they have a few other viable candidates to run apart from Eamon? And what are his chances of winning a seat, I'm not sure but is his constituency the one in south Dublin that is being chopped from 5 seats to 3 ?

Ciaran Cuffe got elected as a councillor in the North Inner City, in total they got three seats on Dublin City Council, he is a strong possibility especially as the established parties have been decimated in the city.

David Healy has been elected several times as a councillor in the Howth/Malahide area and is a possibility

Roderic O'Gorman is a longer shot in Dublin West.

They also got two council seats in Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown and one in South Dublin with new candidates but they are probably looking to future Dail elections.

Two councillors in Dundalk opens up the possibility of a good candidate taking a seat in the Louth five-seater.

They will benefit from transfers much more than SF will or other left-wing independents.

I am sure Eamon Ryan is considering carefully where he should run, he nearly took a Euro seat in Dublin remember.

FreudianSlippers

Roderic O'Gorman is criminally wasted by not being in an established party. He would be fantastic in government - who's going to convince him to abandon the morals and get in power?

delthedriver

At the end of the day we will get what the electorate vote for.
In Ireland no matter who forms a government , we will endure another 5years of vicious backbiting fuelled largely by the media.
Like them or not the current Government have done a great job against a backdrop of unprecedented economic problems.
It is up to the voters to be honest with themselves and vote with heads and put in place a stable government who can steer Ireland Inca. Through the stormy waters for another five years.
Leave the personality nonsense outside the polling booth. Be careful what you wish for. Sometimes the devil you know .......etc.

Son Of A Vidic

Icepick wrote: »

Who are 'the Bankers' and do they have a secret handshake?

Quite possibly, if my Freemason Brother-in-Law is anything to go by.

Loafing Oaf

Enda seemingly ruling out coalition with FF this morning. But leaving the door ever so slightly ajar...

Slydice

Results of a Sunday Independent/Millward Brown poll released today: http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0214/680291-support-for-independents-drops-10-in-new-poll/

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Sinn Fein|Fine Gael|Ind./Others|Fianna Fáil|Labour
Poll|26|25|24|19|6


So FG/FF/Lab have 50% bang on again. Again, no need for them to wrangle an independent or two.

Looks like they've bedded down the neccessary support in the short time I've been posting on this thread:


Paddy Power odds are the same since last time. Top is still FG/FF/Any other party(s): http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 11/8
FG/FF 9/4
FF/SF 5/1

Once again, I'd say that'll be a FG/FF/Lab 11/8.

ILikeBananas

If it is going to be a FF/FG/x government I'd prefer to see the x being some right leaning independents and/or a new right leaning party (eg the Reboot Ireland party). Better to keep Labour out altogether.

This would hopefully lead to a proper future left/right divide and possibly the merging of FF/FG. Finally we'd have parties with clear ideological differences between them.

Loafing Oaf

Slydice wrote: »

Results of a Sunday Independent/Millward Brown poll released today: http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0214/680291-support-for-independents-drops-10-in-new-poll/

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Sinn Fein|Fine Gael|Ind./Others|Fianna Fáil|Labour
Poll|26|25|24|19|6


So FG/FF/Lab have 50% bang on again. Again, no need for them to wrangle an independent or two.

Looks like they've bedded down the neccessary support in the short time I've been posting on this thread:


Paddy Power odds are the same since last time. Top is still FG/FF/Any other party(s): http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 11/8
FG/FF 9/4
FF/SF 5/1

Once again, I'd say that'll be a FG/FF/Lab 11/8.

Do you understand that share of vote does not directly track seat number? I don't follow it in any detail, but AFAIK larger parties generally get a 'seat bonus'. Last time round FG got roughly 36% of the vote but 46% of seats. So if FF and FG were on a combined 44% of the vote they would almost certainly have a majority.

touts

Impossible to predict now who will make up the next government. A lot will depend on what happens in Greece. If they get a good deal on their debts then that will be the big issue in our election and Sinn Fein etc will do very well. If Greece basically collapses exits the euro and has mass economic chaos support for the left will collapse here.

My bet is some sort of a fudge in Greece which will see an equal sort of a fudge here come the next election. We will end up with an unstable coalition that will last about 6 months and we'll go to the polls again. I can't see FF and FG having enough to form a government especially as it looks like Labour could well follow the greens out of the Dail completely. So FF/FG will have to go in with a collection of conservative independents and that will collapse as soon as some abortion issue arises. If it's a left wing government led by SF we'll quickly find that the one thing socialists hate more than capitalists is other socialists. It might take 3 elections to sort it all out.

FreudianSlippers

The current government has to do everything they can to stay in power until after Greece falls apart. SF and FF will be doing everything in their power to do the opposite.

I'd say it'll make for an interesting few weeks, but the weak link is Labour.

jmayo

delthedriver wrote: »

At the end of the day we will get what the electorate vote for.
In Ireland no matter who forms a government , we will endure another 5years of vicious backbiting fuelled largely by the media.
Like them or not the current Government have done a great job against a backdrop of unprecedented economic problems.
It is up to the voters to be honest with themselves and vote with heads and put in place a stable government who can steer Ireland Inca. Through the stormy waters for another five years.
Leave the personality nonsense outside the polling booth. Be careful what you wish for. Sometimes the devil you know .......etc.

The problem with the electorate is some of them want the parties/people that promises to give them everything all the while taxing someone else.

listermint

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

The current government has to do everything they can to stay in power until after Greece falls apart. SF and FF will be doing everything in their power to do the opposite.

I'd say it'll make for an interesting few weeks, but the weak link is Labour.

This arrests thing has damaged Joans Labour big time. The seats they used to rely on are all in the areas where they have murdered the community spirit. I dont see Labour coming out pretty this time around.

Baggy Trousers

listermint wrote: »

This arrests thing has damaged Joans Labour big time. The seats they used to rely on are all in the areas where they have murdered the community spirit. I dont see Labour coming out pretty this time around.

Agreed. Joan lost all sympathy after the arrests. And she knows it.

I am convince the next government will be FG + FF and whoever they need.

Idbatterim

I am convince the next government will be FG + FF and whoever they need.

lets prey that we only need two parties to form the numbers, not a few Healy Rae type independent tag alongs in tow...

Quin_Dub

Idbatterim wrote: »

lets prey that we only need two parties to form the numbers, not a few Healy Rae type independent tag alongs in tow...

If FG and FF agree to coalition, they'll have a majority...

But could they agree??

Idbatterim

FG would be similar to Labour IMO, they already trotted out the FG too far to the right line a few months ago, i.e. exactly what Labour did in 2011 to great effect! FF will simply pull the too drastic, too uncaring bulls**t and hope to gain from that... Their lies are so blatant, so outrageous, it leaves me near speechless!

http://www.herald.ie/news/senior-ff-members-oppose-fg-coalition-30923954.html

Party leader Mr Martin was clear in his response to the survey, which was issued before Mr Coveney's comments were published.

"I do not favour coalition with Fine Gael on the basis that they have become an increasingly right-wing political party and because I do not believe they have a positive vision for the future of the country," he said.

I was in the UK over the weekend, there was studio debate on some current affairs programme, what interested me was an 18 year old woman who was attending university, she said she didnt feel "comfortable" voting and her friends felt the same as it was so complex, how could she be so sure she was voting for the right party, I really admired her honesty, I wouldn't expect the correct answer from asking many of the Irish populace the time of day, yet they are all economic experts, we should have pulled an Iceland, burn the bondholders, no to paying for a precious resource, the usual!

For Reals

The only reason for Kenny making a mountain out of a molehill as regards the Burton/Murphy Jobstown protest was to either damage Murphy, (which will backfire) and/or damage Burton, (which it has). Keep in mind, she made no complaint.

I would guess a FG/right wing indies/cerighton, if she gets her **** together.
or
FF/SF and some indies.

A FF and FG alliance would be the perfect storm for destroying the Irish people. Some business' would fare well, the right business'.

oscarBravo

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Agreed. Joan lost all sympathy after the arrests. And she knows it.

Yeah, it was very stupid of Joan Burton to arrest those people.

For Reals

oscarBravo wrote: »

Yeah, it was very stupid of Joan Burton to arrest those people.

With those editorial skills you could work for Kenny the Indo.

conorh91

It was pretty disturbing to see Joan Burton stand up in Dáil Éireann last Thursday, and effectively deny being 'a rat' in response to Paul Murphy accusing her of making a complaint, and Ruth Coppinger accusing her of a "vindictive attempt to criminalize" others.

Unfortunately the exchange was not reported by the media, but haranguing any person by claiming they have made a complaint to a Garda is worryingly close to bullying. The Tánaiste said she didn't make a complaint, but so what if she had?

Eqaulity under the law means that nobody's right of access to justice should be arbitrarily withheld, whatever their status. The idea that someone can be trapped and intimidated, and then badgered against going to the Gardaí, is revolting in this day and age.

People need to step back and take a fresh look and the kind of people they are appointing to public office, and whether those people respect the rule of law and its application to all citizens equally.

For Reals

conorh91 wrote: »

It was pretty disturbing to see Joan Burton stand up in Dáil Éireann last Thursday, and effectively deny being 'a rat' in response to Paul Murphy accusing her of making a complaint, and Ruth Coppinger accusing her of a "vindictive attempt to criminalize" others.

Unfortunately the exchange was not reported by the media, but haranguing any person by claiming they have made a complaint to a Garda is worryingly close to bullying. The Tánaiste said she didn't make a complaint, but so what if she had?

Eqaulity under the law means that nobody's right of access to justice should be arbitrarily withheld, whatever their status. The idea that someone can be trapped and intimidated, and then badgered against going to the Gardaí, is revolting in this day and age.

People need to step back and take a fresh look and the kind of people they are appointing to public office, and whether those people respect the rule of law and its application to all citizens equally.

What is disturbing to me is all the bull**** spin on reporting events, the armchair journos editorialising and blithely colouring opinion in with facts to create a potpourri of right wing governmental puke and passing it off as the lone cries of the last logical unbiased observer.

They complained about making something much broader out of a minor event and in my view, in agreement, that it was a lot of fuss about nothing, she stated she hadn't even made a complaint.
The soap box that is the rest of your post is bollocks.

...or maybe Murphy has my family at ransom and is overseeing what I type. I pass the **** ladle back to you good sir.

Sand

conorh91 wrote: »

People need to step back and take a fresh look and the kind of people they are appointing to public office, and whether those people respect the rule of law and its application to all citizens equally.

I take you mean Michael Noonan here, who hounded a dying woman to her grave with legal threats backed by State funded lawyers despite the AG telling the government in 1995 that the State was liable? Funny that the state didnt follow the AG advice then, given they use the AG advice as a shield when it suits them.

I don't agree with the protesters. And I don't agree with their targeting of individuals for intimidation and threats. But what do the establishment parties expect when TDs are whipped, and the Dail is treated with contempt as a formality or rubber stamp for decisions made by a coterie of 3 or 4 almost unaccountable figures? Dissent wont go away - it will simply find darker, more dangerous forms.

People need to remember - repressive autocrats introduced and tolerated Parliaments to give a release of the tensions that would otherwise lead to trouble and violence. With the Dail increasingly muzzled to the point of irrelevance, those tensions will arise again. You reap what you sow.

Muahahaha

For Reals wrote: »

I would guess a FG/right wing indies/cerighton, if she gets her **** together.
or
FF/SF and some indies.

Latest from Eddie Hobbs is that Lucinda has approx 60 candidates willing and able to run in the next election. Jonathon Irwin, the CEO of the Jack and Jill Foundation was said to be one of them. A full announcement is expecting in a few weeks.

It could be bluster but if its true then I think Lucinda is going to hold the balance of power in the next Dail. Labour are beyond recovery at this stage, they are just too toxic. Lucinda might well turn out to be the prop that puts FG/Lab back into power by gaining enough seats to cover some of their losses from their seat totals in 2011. If the numbers don't quite stack up for a FF-FG government she could also prop that up too whilst selling the line that she needs to keep an eye on both of them in government.

Thing is will avoiding a referendum on abortion be a red line issue for Lucinda? I get the feeling that both Kenny and Martin would cede to that demand to go into government with her, both of them would prefer kick the can as far down the road as possible.

Sand

Muahahaha wrote: »

Latest from Eddie Hobbs is that Lucinda has approx 60 candidates willing and able to run in the next election.

They have closer to 60 votes. Whatever Ireland needs, its not some 1950s state Catholicism throwback with a bit of whatever you're having yourself thrown in on top.

Brussels Sprout

Sand wrote: »

They have closer to 60 votes. Whatever Ireland needs, its not some 1950s state Catholicism throwback with a bit of whatever you're having yourself thrown in on top.

Just because Crieghton left FG over the abortion issue and she's starting a new party doesn't mean that the new party is going to be a "pro-lifer" vehicle.

They've made it clear that any TDs they have will have a free hand in voting on any abortion legislation and the other main person in the startup, Eddie Hobbs is on the record as being pro-choice.

conorh91

Sand wrote: »

I take you mean Michael Noonan here, who hounded a dying woman to her grave with legal threats backed by State funded lawyers despite the AG telling the government in 1995 that the State was liable?

Completely different issue. The Macken report made clear that Michael Noonan adhered strictly to legal rules in an effort to minimise the costs to the State and maintain the blood supply.

There is a big difference between adhering to the rule of law with (admittedly stern) rigidity, as against engaging in flagrant criminality and and the subsequent taunting of a person who might otherwise communicate with Gardai or the courts pursuant to a criminal matter.

joe912

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

My money is on the next govt being FG/Lab coalition again. I dont see much by way of alternative at the moment, with FF and SF being as bad as each other

while f.g will retain most of their core support (not the anti f.f vote they got the last time) labour will not figure in the next government, they are finished.
you don't see any alternatives. I don't see any difference in f.f and f.g they cater for the same people admittedly the people they cater to are influential and will try and create a fear factor round s.f.
the only 2 likely outcomes are f.f and f.g or s.f and f.f or maybe f.g
don't be under any doubt these power hungry bastards would go into government with anybody just to have power.