Next (2016) Gov: FF, FG & Lab? (Bankers Gov?)

Loafing Oaf · 02-06-2015 11:12am

I'm starting to wonder if FF would prefer the current government to be re-elected, if the only other option would be to go into government as FG's junior partner...

FreudianSlippers · 02-06-2015 11:32am

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I'm starting to wonder if FF would prefer the current government to be re-elected, if the only other option would be to go into government as FG's junior partner...

If Labour continue this slide (and there is really no reason to suggest they won't) then FG might sweeten that pot for FF considerably.

Sierra Oscar · 02-06-2015 12:05pm

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

If Labour continue this slide (and there is really no reason to suggest they won't) then FG might sweeten that pot for FF considerably.

I think the Labour party support will stabilize at between 10 - 12%.

The next Government will be FG / Labour / Independents (Donnelly, Ross & Co) and will last a couple of years.

Idbatterim · 02-06-2015 12:40pm

The next Government will be FG / Labour / Independents (Donnelly, Ross & Co) and will last a couple of years.

my preference is for FG and Renua. But I hope if Renua dont do win any or many seats, that it is Fg and Labour without any independents or even FF and Fg. I would see FF as very similar economically to Labour anyway...

I dont think there is a chance of FF turning down a junior coalition role if they have a chance, the country is on the way back up, they can say that they took the harsh steps at the height of the crisis and the country is now reaping the rewards and they are coming back to finish what they started etc (insert rolleyes)

Slydice · 21-06-2015 1:18am

June sees us with a Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0620/709468-opinion-poll/
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/ireland/News/article1571752.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2015_06_20

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Ind./Others|Fine Gael|Fianna Fáil|Sinn Fein|Labour
Poll|28|24|21|19|9

FG/FF/Lab down a bit to 54%. Still the definite majority. Labour back in the game.

The support chart looks really strong now.. just with a dent:

I can't find mention of the Green party or Renua (but I'm not a Times subscriber)

Paddy Power odds have strengthened. The Top is still FG/FF with FG/FF/Any other party(s) now in second:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 11/10
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 7/2
FG/Lab 7/2

Looks like their money is still on FG and FF.

They still list FF/FG/Lab at 8/1 now right beside FF/FG/Renua at 9/1. They are still 4th and 5th highest odds.

Will be interesting to see where it goes from here.

Godge · 22-06-2015 10:22am

Slydice wrote: »

June sees us with a Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0620/709468-opinion-poll/
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/ireland/News/article1571752.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2015_06_20

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Ind./Others|Fine Gael|Fianna Fáil|Sinn Fein|Labour
Poll|28|24|21|19|9

FG/FF/Lab down a bit to 54%. Still the definite majority. Labour back in the game.

The support chart looks really strong now.. just with a dent:

I can't find mention of the Green party or Renua (but I'm not a Times subscriber)

Paddy Power odds have strengthened. The Top is still FG/FF with FG/FF/Any other party(s) now in second:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 11/10
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 7/2
FG/Lab 7/2

Looks like their money is still on FG and FF.

They still list FF/FG/Lab at 8/1 now right beside FF/FG/Renua at 9/1. They are still 4th and 5th highest odds.

Will be interesting to see where it goes from here.

I have been watching Paddy Power's government options for quite a while. There is one combination they consistently leave out - FG/Lab/Any other party(s). Whether it be one or two of Renua, Greens, Ross' group, Donnelly's group or FF, that is the combination most likely to get back in. Not surprising they are not taking bets on it.

ticklemetoe · 02-07-2015 1:11am

the next leader will be in charge when things in the economy really go south, the main parties don't want to win, they will engineer a win for the Left wing parties . They will be then associated with really recking the country a be unelectable for a generation. Thus a future of alternating FG and FF governments.

alaimacerc · 05-07-2015 5:44am

Godge wrote: »

I have been watching Paddy Power's government options for quite a while. There is one combination they consistently leave out - FG/Lab/Any other party(s). Whether it be one or two of Renua, Greens, Ross' group, Donnelly's group or FF, that is the combination most likely to get back in. Not surprising they are not taking bets on it.

But as you imply, that's not a combination: it's a combination of combinations. "Current government plus whatever you're having yourself" covers a whole lot of ground. I'm not convinced any of the "new" groups or parties are going to be massively larger than they are at present, though they all might grow a bit.

CowboyTed · 09-07-2015 10:54pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I'm starting to wonder if FF would prefer the current government to be re-elected, if the only other option would be to go into government as FG's junior partner...

I think it very clear FF will not be a junior party to anyone, prefer opposition to that.

alaimacerc · 10-07-2015 12:45am

CowboyTed wrote: »

I think it very clear FF will not be a junior party to anyone, prefer opposition to that.

Gets very convoluted it you have something like 50 FG TDs, 40 FF, and 30 SF, though. FF and SF don't want to be anyone's "junior partner" -- least of all each other's. You start to wonder if it doesn't start to look like a FG minority government, with FF pretending to oppose them but essentially on a basis of "same thing but different".

God knows how you stumble through the vote on appointing a taoiseach without selling the pass, though...

Loafing Oaf · 10-07-2015 12:36pm

CowboyTed wrote: »

I think it very clear FF will not be a junior party to anyone, prefer opposition to that.

But how does that translate into their approach to the next election? If an individual FF member supporter envisages as the only alternative to the re-election of the current government a scenario where they come under nigh-irrestible pressure to form a government with FG, do they actively seek to sabotage their party's performance in the election?

alaimacerc · 10-07-2015 6:21pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If an individual FF member supporter envisages as the only alternative to the re-election of the current government a scenario where they come under nigh-irrestible pressure to form a government with FG, do they actively seek to sabotage their party's performance in the election?

How would that be feasibly distinguishable from the apparent behaviour of many FF supporters... or members... or TDs that happens anyway?

Seems to be pretty much priced into the brand.

Slydice · 19-07-2015 10:37pm

Anyway... FG/FF/Lab are at 50%. Still the majority. Seems to be moving downwards.

The support chart strong now.. with a downward line:

Paddy Power odds show the Top is still FG/FF with FG/FF/Any other party(s) now in second:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 11/10
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 7/2
FG/Lab 7/2

Looks like their money is still on FG and FF.

They still list FF/FG/Lab at 8/1 now right beside FF/FG/Renua at 9/1. They are still 4th and 5th highest odds.

Again, it'll be interesting to see where it goes from here.

alaimacerc · 20-07-2015 2:59am

Slydice wrote: »

It adds up to 99%. I can't find an article that shows the remaining 1%. I assume it's a fraction of a percent thing.

That's standard. So standard they may be getting lax about pointing it out every time. I recall a round of coughing and spluttering about a poll from the last round that added to 101%. (OMG scam poll, etc, from supporters of a party that'd not done especially well therein.)

The alternative would be to report the results to one decimal place. But then we'd still be wondering why it summed to 99.9% or 100.1%, and it would be an entirely spurious amount of precision, given the marginal of sampling error on the poll.

Quin_Dub · 20-07-2015 10:25am

Slydice wrote: »

It's July and we have a Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0718/715721-Behaviour-and-Attitudes-poll/

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Ind./Others|Fine Gael|Fianna Fáil|Sinn Fein|Labour
Poll|32|24|18|17|8

It adds up to 99%. I can't find an article that shows the remaining 1%. I assume it's a fraction of a percent thing. Some articles say the Greens have 1% but they also add up to 99% when I do their numbers.

Anyway... FG/FF/Lab are at 50%. Still the majority. Seems to be moving downwards.

The support chart strong now.. with a downward line:

Paddy Power odds show the Top is still FG/FF with FG/FF/Any other party(s) now in second:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 11/10
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 7/2
FG/Lab 7/2

Looks like their money is still on FG and FF.

They still list FF/FG/Lab at 8/1 now right beside FF/FG/Renua at 9/1. They are still 4th and 5th highest odds.

Again, it'll be interesting to see where it goes from here.

FG holding on to the gains they've made , SF and FF losing ground to the Independents (The Catherine Murphy effect??).

That's a 30% slide for SF in the last few months , down from a high of 24%/25% - Hard to see them recovering any of that as the economy continues to improve.

The question is - Will all the new "parties" have an impact on the voting patterns or will they just hold what they have?

e.g. - Next Poll, will the new Social Democrats show up or will they just be the 1.8% or so that their current 3 seats equates to...

Slydice · 01-09-2015 12:00am

I didn't use the poll at the time cos it was so soon after the previous post I made. Anyway, It's August and I haven't seen another poll since so updating with the Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent from the start of the month:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0801/718724-opinion-poll/

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Ind./Others|Fine Gael|Fianna Fáil|Sinn Fein|Labour
Poll|25|24|23|21|7

The article says the Greens have 1% but I've included them in "others" for now.

Anyway... FG/FF/Lab are at 54%. A move upwards since the previous post.

The support chart strong now.. with a downward line:

Paddy Power odds show the Top is still FG/FF with FG/FF/Any other party(s) now in second:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 7/4
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 4/1
FG/Lab 5/1

Looks like their money is still on FG and FF.

They still list FF/FG/Lab is now at 14/1. FF/FG/Renua has remained at 9/1. Interesting. Also FG Minority is there at 5/1.

There's been a big gap so it'll be interesting to see where the dust settles after the next (october) poll.

Godge · 01-09-2015 10:30am

You still can't bet on FG/Lab/Any other party.

Slydice · 13-09-2015 4:32pm

The Government coalition is still 17 points off the vote it won in 2011.

Anyway... FG/FF/Lab are at 56%. Another move upwards since the previous post.

The support chart now with the line on the way back up:

Paddy Power odds show the Top is still FG/FF with FG/FF/Any other party(s) now in second:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 13/8
FG/Lab 10/3
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 5/1

Looks like their money is still on FG and FF. Interesting that FG/Lab have moved up to 2nd place.

They still list FF/FG/Lab is now at 14/1. FF/FG/Renua has moved back out to 14/1. Interesting. Also FG Minority is also out to 13/2.

Meanwhile...
40 Irish bankers earned €1m or more in 2013 - watchdog
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0907/726272-euro-zone-bankers/

The figures show the number of high-earning bankers relative to the number of staff employed in banking in Ireland were well ahead of the EU average in that year

Godge · 14-09-2015 11:39am

Slydice wrote: »

Right, not gonna leave this update as long as I left the last one. Sunday Business Post/Red C opinion poll out this weekend:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0912/727437-opinion-poll/

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Ind./Others|Fine Gael|Fianna Fáil|Sinn Fein|Labour
Poll|28|28|18|16|10

RTÉ note:

Anyway... FG/FF/Lab are at 56%. Another move upwards since the previous post.

The support chart now with the line on the way back up:

Paddy Power odds show the Top is still FG/FF with FG/FF/Any other party(s) now in second:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 13/8
FG/Lab 10/3
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 5/1

Looks like their money is still on FG and FF. Interesting that FG/Lab have moved up to 2nd place.

They still list FF/FG/Lab is now at 14/1. FF/FG/Renua has moved back out to 14/1. Interesting. Also FG Minority is also out to 13/2.

Meanwhile...
40 Irish bankers earned €1m or more in 2013 - watchdog
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0907/726272-euro-zone-bankers/

The lowest priced government not involving FG is SF/FF at 12-1.

Anything else is 40/1 and beyond.

The sure bet is on FG to be part of the next government.

alaimacerc · 16-09-2015 9:30am

Slydice wrote: »

Looks like their money is still on FG and FF.

No, their money comes from taking everyone else's. The quoted odds sum to about 155% probability... and as Godge points out (again!), doesn't include all the possibilities. Like, most obviously, FG/Lab/(perm one or two smaller parties (not to include FF or SF!)/some indies. See if that one is available "on request", as they allude to!

Look at the conspicuous gap between the various possibilities including FG, and the decidedly short odds they quote for The Enda being the next Taoiseach. (To which add the lower odds of some other FG being in post.)

The titular permutation continues to not make any sense, however. Either numerically, or politically.

Slydice · 18-10-2015 3:32am

Paddy Power odds show the Top is still FG/FF, 2 is also still FG/Lab but 3 is now FG Minority. The odds are:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 13/8
FG/Lab 7/2
FG Minority 13/2

Looks like their money is still on FG and FF. Interesting that FG Minority is on the radar at 3rd place.

They still list FF/FG/Lab at 14/1. Interesting that SF have blipped the radar in 5th as part of FF/SF/Lab at 10/1

Meanwhile...
30 September 2015 - Dublin apartment residents face €4m bill over fire concerns
06 October 2015 - Audit of Celtic Tiger apartments proposed by Howlin
07 October 2015 - Audit of all boom builds may fall on cost
10 October 2015 - Ten people die in fire at Dublin halting site
12 October 2015 - Call for fire safety audit of Dublin halting sites
14 October 2015 - 'We're afraid we'll be forgotten' - Longboat Quay families at Nama protest
15 October 2015 - Locals block Traveller site for survivors of Carrickmines fire
17 October 2015 - Carrickmines fire funerals to be held next week

Slydice · 08-11-2015 2:23pm

Paddy Power odds show the Top is still FG/FF, 2 is also still FG/Lab but 3 is now FG Minority. The odds are:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 11/10
FG/Lab 7/2
FG Minority 7/1

Looks like their money is still on FG and FF. Interesting that FG Minority is still on the radar at 3rd place.

FG/FG/Lab is at 14/1. SF still blipping the radar in 5th as part of FF/SF/Lab.. still at 10/1

alaimacerc · 08-11-2015 7:29pm

Slydice wrote: »

Looks like their money is still on FG and FF.

No, "their money" still isn't. See earlier reply.

For clarity, look at their quoted odds for the next Tánaiste (Labour leader and FF leader are on the same money).

Next (2016) Gov: FF, FG & Lab? (Bankers Gov?)

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