Budget live thread

Riskymove

Monife wrote: »

Why is it that the above comes into effect in January, yet the increase in tax on cigarettes etc comes in from midnight after budget day. Not a smoker but this really annoys me!

the new tax year starts in January and it makes sense that changes happen then. the system is set up for an annual rate etc.

the other things have the change applied now because no such hurdle exists in a set system like with income tax and also probably so that people don't go out and bulk buy prior to some future date, bad for those interested but good for the state.

seamus

Monife wrote: »

Why is it that the above comes into effect in January, yet the increase in tax on cigarettes etc comes in from midnight after budget day. Not a smoker but this really annoys me!

Yeah, it's purely about simplicity.
If you paid your workers weekly, then making the direct tax changes instant would mean that employers have 3 days or less to adjust their accounting software and charge the new rates on half the week and the old rates and the other half, or have to adjust employees pay retrospectively to account for the changes. It's very complicated, basically, for employers and revenue alike, to switch their direct taxation systems instantly.

Whereas with things like cigs and fuel duty, the retailer simply has to lump the duty amount on top of what they're currently charging, which is by comparison far simpler.
Changes to percentage-based taxes, like VAT, are usually also brought over to the next year, to give people time to adjust their systems to account for it.

Idbatterim

Auction politics again. They have learned nothing.

After this budget FG have now lost a voter here. I was going to give them another chance to continue the changes necessary to set our country on some sort of sustainable path. This is a fcuking joke and once again we return to being about one peg above a banana republic.

I am not particularly impressed with FG either, but FG voters have nowhere else to go, except independents, but they will be irrelevant in next election as no party will come close to outright majority, where they might take a handful of independents on board...

jank

If the PD's were still around, they would be moping up a huge financial prudence protest vote.

Idbatterim

thing is the PDs would be the closest match to FG, it would ideal for the two of them...

Packrat

geeksauce wrote: »

I don't think it was necessarily auction politics, the economic outlook has improved as a result of tough decisions made by the government in recent years. FF were dab hands at auction politics the difference between the two is that FF were giving away money when it simply wasn't there.

The current government made tough decisions the last few years and have now something to show for it, and are giving that back to the people, may not necessarily be to the right people but they are basing their budgets on the economic outlook rather than the need to impress people and win votes as FF did for so many years.

Utter rubbish.

When FF were throwing money around we were running surpluses.

FG/Lab are throwing it around NOW, when we are in deficit.

These are solid fact, - not opinion.

As I said, "borrowing money to scatter it to the four winds"

We all agree that FF wasted the boom/bubble, and the saving opportunities it brought.

But to increase spending when we are still borrowing billions is national treason.

Chips Lovell

seamus wrote: »

80% windfall gains tax being abolished. 33% CGT will apply as normal.

Very disappointed with this decision. I thought the original measure was a step in the right direct in terms of reform of the taxation system. I know there is a shortage of new builds, particularly in Dublin right now, but I think a.) it won't make that much of a difference, and b.) its sacrificing long term reform for something that the market will eventually address.

djpbarry

geeksauce wrote: »

…FF were giving away money when it simply wasn't there.

No, that’s what the current government are doing with this budget. Sure, the forecasts are conservative, but I’m finding it hard to grasp why now is a good time to increase child benefit and raise thresholds for the USC and income tax. Why is the tax base being narrowed again?

This is essentially a mini FF giveaway budget, designed for precisely the same purpose that FF had in mind – buying votes.

Idbatterim

the problem is simple and it requires a fine balancing act, they could just leave things as they are or go ahead and make further cuts / increase taxes, but what is the point in being a martyr and handing the keys back over to SF or FF just as things are starting to improve and when the vast majority wont vote for you if you do "the right thing")

They need to give as little as possible back, yet be as confident as possible of returning to power. FG cant do it on their own and their preferred coalition party and only reasonable one is Labour.

I think it actually looks far more generous than it is, yes there is a return of the Xmas bonus, buts its a quarter of the old rate, yet they can still say it has been reinstated, the USC reduction will have me €3 a week better off. The 1% PAYE cut is marginal and isnt it only for those earning up to 70k, then those earning above 70k have been hit with 1% USC increase? So while it may look like everyone has gotten a slice of the pie and they have, it is a minimal levels.

There has to be a value psychologically and to the economy (what that is, is anyones guess, but I would guess hundreds of millions per annum minimum) of the austere budgets being over and a little being given back...

No, that’s what the current government are doing with this budget. Sure, the forecasts are conservative, but I’m finding it hard to grasp why now is a good time to increase child benefit and raise thresholds for the USC and income tax. Why is the tax base being narrowed again?

This is essentially a mini FF giveaway budget, designed for precisely the same purpose that FF had in mind – buying votes.

some people may see it as burning the candle at both ends, i.e. increased expenditure and a lowering of taxes, ala the boom (which at first glance may seem the case) but are the penal rates of income tax doing more damage than good, then again 52>51% wont make much of a difference either way, its off the wall... It is simply ridiculous that there isnt a middle rate for middle incomes, what a middle income is, is another debate. IMO they should have increased the threshold from 32,800 to 34,000 instead of 33,800...

I reckon this was another case of "ah it wasnt that bad" they will save the real sweeteners for the next budget, as they know people have short memories! On a side note, I wish you could simply mute any FF commentary automatically!

Packrat

seamus wrote: »

...according to the opinion of some crackpot on a one-man "enquiry" quest.

http://www.publicinquiry.eu/2014/02/14/michael-noonan-as-ruthless-and-callous-as-ever/

Have you got any unbiased information on this incident? The only things I can find are the above and an independent.ie opinion piece.

Its pretty accepted that the state through Noonan behaved despicably in that case.

shruikan2553

I find the USC for over 100k a bit odd, it is only if you are self employed.

djpbarry

Idbatterim wrote: »

...what is the point in being a martyr and handing the keys back over to SF or FF just as things are starting to improve and when the vast majority wont vote for you if you do "the right thing")

It's called being a responsible politician, but Ireland doesn't have those because people get the government they deserve.

Populism for the win.

Packrat

Idbatterim wrote: »

the problem is simple and it requires a fine balancing act, they could just leave things as they are or go ahead and make further cuts / increase taxes, but what is the point in being a martyr and handing the keys back over to SF or FF just as things are starting to improve and when the vast majority wont vote for you if you do "the right thing")

They need to give as little as possible back, yet be as confident as possible of returning to power. FG cant do it on their own and their preferred coalition party and only reasonable one is Labour.

I think it actually looks far more generous than it is, yes there is a return of the Xmas bonus, buts its a quarter of the old rate, yet they can still say it has been reinstated, the USC reduction will have me €3 a week better off. The 1% PAYE cut is marginal and isnt it only for those earning up to 70k, then those earning above 70k have been hit with 1% USC increase? So while it may look like everyone has gotten a slice of the pie and they have, it is a minimal levels.


There has to be a value psychologically and to the economy (what that is, is anyones guess, but I would guess hundreds of millions per annum minimum) of the austere budgets being over and a little being given back...

some people may see it as burning the candle at both ends, i.e. increased expenditure and a lowering of taxes, ala the boom (which at first glance may seem the case) but are the penal rates of income tax doing more damage than good, then again 52>51% wont make much of a difference either way, its off the wall...

Yes each change is small, but cumulatively they amount to close to a billion.

The biggest problem I have with it is the demands it will provoke for future years.

This budget means:

That there will be no more PS reform.
That increases in social welfare become the norm.
That tax cuts will be expected every year as we "rerecover"

Everybody seems to have forgotten that our national debt is rising as we continue to spend more than we take in.

We owe 200,000,000,000 euro and rising yet people think its acceptable to increase spending snd cut taxes ?

I give up...

eta. Idbatterim, can you accept any criticism of FG or are you too blinkered? I thought you were more tuned in.

Idbatterim

It's called being a responsible politician, but Ireland doesn't have those because people get the government they deserve.

Populism for the win.

I reckon FG in particular reckon they are doing the responsible thing by giving a little back so they can spare the country from the potential ruination in 2016 that FG or SF would inflict! I think there is reasoning to the madness or logic of what is going on at present, from FG in particular...

I totally agree with you about the responsible politician bit, but they are forced to give the people here what they want, as if they dont, someone else will! The thing is, I get the impression that every sector of society here feels genuinely shafted, I genuinely do believe that. I would say the pensioners, are a massive sacred cow and dont know how good they have it, I bet they would disagree with that, as an example...

eta. Idbatterim, can you accept any criticism of FG or are you too blinkered? I thought you were more tuned in.

Absolutely I can, and I agree with what you are saying, but I am not looking to be reelected in two years... I could actually dig up fairly recent posts, about my unhappiness at some of FG moves, they arent great IMO, but what alternative options are there at the moment, SF or FF would be an outright joke...

Rightwing

Packrat wrote: »

Utter rubbish.

When FF were throwing money around we were running surpluses.

FG/Lab are throwing it around NOW, when we are in deficit.

These are solid fact, - not opinion.

As I said, "borrowing money to scatter it to the four winds"

We all agree that FF wasted the boom/bubble, and the saving opportunities it brought.

But to increase spending when we are still borrowing billions is national treason.

We weren't really. They were also throwing money around when in deficit.

Hope this helps.

draiochtanois

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Rightwing

djpbarry wrote: »

It's called being a responsible politician, but Ireland doesn't have those because people get the government they deserve.

Populism for the win.

True, but as the other poster pointed out, why be the hero for the other parties to thrash the economy again?

But the world economy is looking dangerous, stock markets (they are 6-9 months ahead of the economy) are coming off, I too am in favour of fiscal restraint.

Godge

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

In most other countries a single person on €20,000 would be paying tax.

Icepick

djpbarry wrote: »

This is essentially a mini FF giveaway budget, designed for precisely the same purpose that FF had in mind – buying votes.

Or cynically it's to keep socialist and populists from SF and indos from winning the next elections, which would have resulted in much worse budgets.

Gus99

Idbatterim wrote: »

It is simply ridiculous that there isnt a middle rate for middle incomes, what a middle income is, is another debate. IMO they should have increased the threshold from 32,800 to 34,000 instead of 33,800...

This budget seems to be the start of a middle rate (from roughly the AIW to 70k). Here the marginal rate has decreased by 1%. I read they intend doing the same for the next couple of budgets - reduce the marginal income tax rate by 1% and increase the (current) 8% USC rate by 1% each year. So the marginal rate in the 35k to 70k range will go from 52% to 51% to 50% to 49% - or maybe fall more..

Monife

Godge wrote: »

In most other countries a single person on €20,000 would be paying tax.

They pay tax here too. I'm not too far above that rate, have a medical card (so lower USC) and my total monthly deductions (not incl. pension or PRD) are approx. €240.

Icepick

Monife wrote: »

They pay tax here too. I'm not too far above that rate, have a medical card (so lower USC) and my total monthly deductions (not incl. pension or PRD) are approx. €240.

You do realize it's laughably low compared with the benefits it entitles you to and standards elsewhere?

murphaph

jank wrote: »

If the PD's were still around, they would be moping up a huge financial prudence protest vote.

I don't know. The PD's should have been a brake on FF's giveaway years but I didn't see it. They seemed just as happy to buy elections as FF (and sadly now FG also by the looks of it).

Do enough Irish voters actually want some fiscal conservatism for such a party to actually succeed? Obviously some do, but are we in a small minority of people who prefer giveaway budgets and the like?

BoJack Horseman

murphaph wrote: »

I don't know. The PD's should have been a brake on FF's giveaway years but I didn't see it. They seemed just as happy to buy elections as FF (and sadly now FG also by the looks of it).

Do enough Irish voters actually want some fiscal conservatism for such a party to actually succeed? Obviously some do, but are we in a small minority of people who prefer giveaway budgets and the like?

In their hearts the PDs were prudent.
However they still had to run for election.
No one wins seats telling the Irish voter that they won't dish the goodies.

The Irish for the most part are very much big government statists.

quadrifoglio verde

Packrat wrote: »

I was hoping for a new party of the right who along with FG might actually do what's needed.

Now? I don't know. We're fcuked with politicians like these.



No, "they" didn't. A fortunate turn of events did. All they did was implement the troikas agreement, that didn't go far enough to correct the structural problem in this economy where waste is the order of the day, and interest groups are protected.



That might help, but I won't hold my breath, the corruption and self interest runs too deep in Irish politics.

Out of curiosity, if things didn't improve, say we had an unfortunate turn of events, what would your opinion be? Would you blame fg, or would you blame the unfortunate turn of events?

coolshannagh28

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

Out of curiosity, if things didn't improve, say we had an unfortunate turn of events, what would your opinion be? Would you blame fg, or would you blame the unfortunate turn of events?

There is plenty of potential for an unfortunate turn of events judging by the numbers coming out of Germany , the apparent failure of QE in the US and the volatility being exhibited by the markets at the minute

Packrat

murphaph wrote: »

I don't know. The PD's should have been a brake on FF's giveaway years but I didn't see it. They seemed just as happy to buy elections as FF (and sadly now FG also by the looks of it).

Do enough Irish voters actually want some fiscal conservatism for such a party to actually succeed? Obviously some do, but are we in a small minority of people who prefer giveaway budgets and the like?

Sadly l think you're on the right track here.

Most people just want "mo munny. NOW ! " "derp derp" Most people are dopes.

Maybe they aren't though:

Doing the right thing is for idiots in this fcukin banana Republic.

Fcuk em, I'll be no better in future, if I was, the fool would be me.

quadrifoglio verde

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

There is plenty of potential for an unfortunate turn of events judging by the numbers coming out of Germany , the apparent failure of QE in the US and the volatility being exhibited by the markets at the minute

Agreed which is why if have waited until next year to start buying the next election. :pac:
Whatever about getting reelected in 2016 after two give away budgets, they've feck all chances of getting reelected if they've to cancel some of the goodies they gave out this year.

jank

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

In their hearts the PDs were prudent.
However they still had to run for election.
No one wins seats telling the Irish voter that they won't dish the goodies.

The Irish for the most part are very much big government statists.

I think this. The PD's did have fiscal prudence in their bones but had to play the game like other parties.

It is very hard to compete with Santa Claus.

FREETV

http://www.independent.ie/business/budget/comment-reaction/if-this-budget-buys-the-election-then-the-electorate-can-be-bought-cheaply-30665476.html
This is the real reality of the Budget, the rest is lies and nonsense.

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/anonymous-delivers-menacing-video-message-4442276

Monife

Icepick wrote: »

You do realize it's laughably low compared with the benefits it entitles you to and standards elsewhere?

What benefits? :rolleyes: A free dental clean and JSB (for 9 months - JSA I would get pittance because I am married) if I lose my job? I have paid far more social insurance than I will ever take in dole.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Idbatterim

They can always reign things back in after assumed reelection. They should have done more at the height of the crisis, where they had the fresh mandate and they could have gotten cuts or tax increases through, that they never will now...

Effectively we value who will put most money in our pockets and put little emphasis on the more important stuff, like building a better society, investing in infrastructure, what value do you put on friends and family not having to emigrate etc, through better economic management...

djpbarry

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Simple solution: tax welfare.

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Of course it is - fewer people will be contributing revenue to the state.

djpbarry

Rightwing wrote: »

True, but as the other poster pointed out, why be the hero for the other parties to thrash the economy again?

I’m not saying I don’t appreciate political realities, but it doesn’t change the fact that this budget is a PR stunt. Coming so soon after an economic meltdown, that is a shocking indictment of the Irish electorate.

djpbarry

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

The Irish for the most part are very much big government statists...

...so long as someone else is footing the bill.

djpbarry

Monife wrote: »

What benefits? :rolleyes: A free dental clean and JSB (for 9 months - JSA I would get pittance because I am married) if I lose my job?

Schools? Roads? Hospitals? Sanitation? Public transport? Universities?

There is a very long list of services that are subsidised by the state.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Monife

djpbarry wrote: »

Schools? Roads? Hospitals? Sanitation? Public transport? Universities?

There is a very long list of services that are subsidised by the state.

Public transport? Are you kidding me? I pay €140 a month on public transport. Sanitation will be paid for with water charges. There are tuition fees and registration fees for Universities. Also, huge costs associated with schooling.

Hospitals - well I can't argue that because I have a medical card and a medical condition where if I didn't have the medical card, I would be broke. But other people do pay astronomical private insurance fees.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

creedp

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

In their hearts the PDs were prudent.
However they still had to run for election.
No one wins seats telling the Irish voter that they won't dish the goodies.

The Irish for the most part are very much big government statists.

I have in front of me a copy of the PDs newsletter 'New Ireland' (not even sure what date it was published - PDs must have thought it would have infinite relevance so declined to actually date it!) in which the front line headline is "Pension to hit €300, vows PDs" under which there is a picture of a very happy happy PD foursome including the mighty Tom Parlon!!!

Further in I find a couple of more nuggets including "From a five-hour commute to a 10-minute commute - Decentralisation 'has changed workers' lives', says Parlon". In the body of the article he quips "With a project of this scale of course there are going to be issues that will take time to iron out."

Another one "PDs promise 10-minute walk to work"

How about "Parlon breaks property price records - Over €360m in capital raised though the sale of State assets. Tom Parlon and the OPW made it to the record books last year when they sold a two acre site in Ballsbridge in Dublin for a whopping €171m!"

How about "Senator Tom Morrissey explains how the PDs radical plan will revitalise Dublin's port area and create a cityscape to rival Manhattan" Great stuff from a great era!!


More headlines include "Gara numbers to hit 15,000 - Tanaiste"

Last one for now - "Thornton is the right site for the new prison - and the Opposition are wrong"

Ah such nostalgia - bring back to prudent PDs!!

FREETV

You will all love reading this about the budget and the comments underneath.

http://www.thejournal.ie/labour-tds-and-senators-spin-the-budget-1726244-Oct2014/

djpbarry

Monife wrote: »

Public transport? Are you kidding me? I pay €140 a month on public transport. Sanitation will be paid for with water charges. There are tuition fees and registration fees for Universities. Also, huge costs associated with schooling.

There are huge costs associated with providing all of those services. Just because you pay something for them, doesn’t mean it even comes close to covering the full cost of providing said services.

draiochtanois wrote: »

Schools? To a degree
Roads? More than paid for by motorists
Hospitals? To a degree
Sanitation? Water charges are being introduced
Public transport? Yeah right, I live in Cork and it is practically non existent
Universities? Grossly inefficient organisations run more for their staff than the students.

See above.

This is precisely the problem with the Irish electorate: public services are not “free”, therefore taxes are too high.

Rightwing

djpbarry wrote: »

There are huge costs associated with providing all of those services. Just because you pay something for them, doesn’t mean it even comes close to covering the full cost of providing said services.
See above.

This is precisely the problem with the Irish electorate: public services are not “free”, therefore taxes are too high.

But do we need all these 'services' ?

Just looking at the judges' expenses and I get the impression it's anything goes once the taxpayer is on the hook.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Kermit.de.frog

I see Moody's have come out and said the government have made a mistake with this budget.


Basically we are too fragile and vulnerable to be messing around and should have heeded the warning from the CB and Fiscal authority to make a big adjustment and bring in the deficit.

We are back to the bad old days.

Rightwing

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I see Moody's have come out and said the government have made a mistake with this budget.


Basically we are too fragile and vulnerable to be messing around and should have heeded the warning from the CB and Fiscal authority to make a big adjustment and bring in the deficit.

We are back to the bad old days.

They are usually behind the curve.

Probably correct in this instance though.

Sheldons Brain

Monife wrote: »

Public transport? Are you kidding me? I pay €140 a month on public transport. Sanitation will be paid for with water charges. There are tuition fees and registration fees for Universities. Also, huge costs associated with schooling.

That you pay something towards these things does not mean you are not receiving value from the State subsidy of them. Would you prefer to drill your own well or go to the UK to university and pay €11,300 instead of €3000?

quadrifoglio verde

Public transport really is crap in this country. Not only that but the difference in price between public transport and private bus operators is negligible when it comes to price.
A friend of mines dad has set up a new private operated bus route from skerries to dcu for less than Dublin bus. Except it's got fast wifi, a toilet but most importantly a faster journey time.
People say that if we didn't have Dublin bus, we wouldn't have any transport. I call bull on that. If money is to be made, entrepreneurs will take the risk to make it.
Instead we insist on keeping Dublin bus's lousy service sacrosanct so we can continue to pay newly recruited bus drivers 18 quid an hour

FREETV

I see Enda and his cohorts are at it again with the lies, are desperate because they are on the ropes after the budget and their give an inch away with one hand and take a mile away with the other mentality.

Don't fall for their lies. They must be voted out.
Corruption is rife.
They are trying and will try before the next election to buy your votes and tax you more again as soon as they would be re-elected.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/taoiseach-signals-further-tax-cuts-if-fine-gael-are-reelected-30666407.html