Dublin House Prices 2015

ffactj

euroboom13 wrote: »

I am still on the same page ,rates will go up, nothing wrong there but nice research.(did I miss a currency break up?? at that time people thought the euro was going and there was a run to open £ bank accounts)

How many years to you have to be predicting something before you get put into the category of a stopped clock.

euroboom13

Last post on this abuse.

Reasons foe property pull back coming.
1)prices at the upper end of affordability.
3)new taxes and regulation.(prtb,propterty tax ,water rates, social charge, all taxing expendable income)
4)fall in incomes
5)rates are at bottom and people should be cautious ,as ONLY way is up.
6)moving deposited % to 20%
7)new multiple of earnings 3.5

Do you believe anyone can see price rally shortly? rubbish

rate rises.
1)too low
2)too low
3)too low
4)Europe selling debt at zero rates and finding buyers, why, they see Europe growing, fast!
5)oil.

Thank you and good luck!

euroboom13

ffactj wrote: »

How many years to you have to be predicting something before you get put into the category of a stopped clock.

Correct, but still being discredited as being impossible.

ffactj

euroboom13 wrote: »

Last post on this abuse.

Reasons foe property pull back coming.
1)prices at the upper end of affordability.
3)new taxes and regulation.(prtb,propterty tax ,water rates, social charge, all taxing expendable income)
4)fall in incomes
5)rates are at bottom and people should be cautious ,as ONLY way is up.
6)moving deposited % to 20%
7)new multiple of earnings 3.5

Do you believe anyone can see price rally shortly? rubbish

rate rises.
1)too low
2)too low
3)too low
4)Europe selling debt at zero rates and finding buyers, why, they see Europe growing, fast!
5)oil.

Thank you and good luck!

Not surprised its your last post tbh. Your still saying the same things will happen soon that you said 3 years ago.
Eventually when rates do rise you'll be on here telling everyone how you called it right.
Perfect example of a stopped clock.
If i were you id bow out too.

Dr Turk Turkelton

Right I'm getting in on this prediction lark so that in years to come I will be able to say I was a genius the same way as David McWilliams had done it.
In the future:
House prices will rise.
They will also drop.
Interest rates will go up.
They will also go down.

Can't wait for five years or so and I will link this post and say I was right about everything.

ffactj

Dr Turk Turkelton wrote: »

Right I'm getting in on this prediction lark so that in years to come I will be able to say I was a genius the same way as David McWilliams had done it.
In the future:
House prices will rise.
They will also drop.
Interest rates will go up.
They will also go down.

Can't wait for five years or so and I will link this post and say I was right about everything.

And the price of a pint will go up. It will never go down.
Id find links all over the internet to support my prediction, but i couldnt be arsed.

Frank Lee Midere

jmayo wrote: »

Actually the poster is right and you are wrong.
You can look it up all you like, but some of us actually lived through it.

Until the creation of Telecom Eireann out of the old P&T, which was actually civil service Dept of Posts and Telegraphs, the phone system in Ireland was archaic.
Telecom Eireann was founded in 1984.

Up until the early 80s (80/81/82), when new Alcatel and Ericsson digital exchanges were implemented, the old system was analogue and relied on some old dear putting your call through.

It took years, yes years, to actually get a phone line.
So the poster is not wrong when they state that the vast majority of people did not have a phone and people relied on public phone boxes.

I wonder does anyone of our older posters recall the phone box in Conemara that didn't accept money and everyone travelled for miles (I mean 20/30/40 miles) to ring their relatives in the states ?

Actually the more I look at what people had in the 70s 80s, nevermind earlier still, the less fecking sympathy I have for some now grumbling and complaining about how people back then somehow didn't have to work as hard and were somehow on the pigs back on the way to massive property wealth. :mad:

As I said I did look it up before. His claim is that there was one phone per housing estate which is tosh. Why would eircom have even come into existence were that the case. I'll find the link I was looking for soon.

The question about adults being lucky in the 80's applies to those who could afford houses. Not the emigrants. Or the bottom 20%. They did well with house price increases and inflation eating their debt.

Frank Lee Midere

ffactj wrote: »

How many years to you have to be predicting something before you get put into the category of a stopped clock.

Bubbles can last for a long time. They are still bubbles though. You'd swear this country never had a housing collapse.

euroboom13

ffactj wrote: »

Not surprised its your last post tbh. Your still saying the same things will happen soon that you said 3 years ago.
Eventually when rates do rise you'll be on here telling everyone how you called it right.
Perfect example of a stopped clock.
If i were you id bow out too.

3yrs is a very short time, poeple here think interest rate will stay impossibly low for years! That's why I am being ridiculed , and all I am doing is advising caution when stretching your monthly expenditure to buy in this market.

You wont miss out by not buying now(only miss unsustainable debt)!

Good luck

ffactj

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

Bubbles can last for a long time. They are still bubbles though. You'd swear this country never had a housing collapse.

As usual. You are not getting the point.

ffactj

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

As I said I did look it up before. His claim is that there was one phone per housing estate which is tosh. Why would eircom have even come into existence were that the case. I'll find the link I was looking for soon.

The question about adults being lucky in the 80's applies to those who could afford houses. Not the emigrants. Or the bottom 20%. They did well with house price increases and inflation eating their debt.

Accuse me of lying all you want.
You looked it up on the web. I was there and lived it.
What is it about celtic cubs who think that if its on the internet it must be true and if they cant find it on the internet it must not have happened.
You really have no clue what the 80s was like. And even the second half of the 80s was infinitely better than the first half for lifestyle.

Ask anyone around the age of 45 or so for first hand information.
They'll all tell you how many people had phones when they were growing up.

NZ_2014

ffactj wrote: »

Accuse me of lying all you want.
You looked it up on the web. I was there and lived it.
What is it about celtic cubs who think that if its on the internet it must be true and if they cant find it on the internet it must not have happened.
You really have no clue what the 80s was like. And even the second half of the 80s was infinitely better than the first half for lifestyle.

Ask anyone around the age of 45 or so for first hand information.
They'll all tell you how many people had phones when they were growing up.

The question is about the comparable affordability of housing, not phones ,flights etc

ffactj

NZ_2014 wrote: »

The question is about the comparable affordability of housing, not phones ,flights etc

Read the rest of the posts and come back.

Barely Hedged

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

Bubbles can last for a long time. They are still bubbles though. You'd swear this country never had a housing collapse.

You can also buy and sell during a long time

lima

ffactj wrote: »

What is it about celtic cubs who think that if its on the internet it must be true and if they cant find it on the internet it must not have happened.

:rolleyes: your condescending post appears to suggest you have a chip about young people.. it must be because of the harsh times in the 80's wow

Yes we have better lives than you did back then, but it's extremely hard to buy an equivalent house now, and thus we have to work much harder than you did to get a nice big house. Deal with it.

dearg lady

Following this with interest, as hoping to buy in the next few years.
It does seem unlikely that the ECB will increase rates in the short to medium term, and then they will probably rise slowly.
I am hoping (!!) that other factors will bring down the price of houses as if things continue as they are I will be priced out in no time. Already pushing that actually, and don't have my full deposit saved yet, so I won't be in a position to buy for a while.

Barely Hedged

Dr Turk Turkelton wrote: »

Right I'm getting in on this prediction lark so that in years to come I will be able to say I was a genius the same way as David McWilliams had done it.
In the future:
House prices will rise.
They will also drop.
Interest rates will go up.
They will also go down.

Can't wait for five years or so and I will link this post and say I was right about everything.

The central point is timing not your finger in the arse statements. Youd be some gob****e not to say interest rates are going to go up but the question is when and at what rate and how will this affect affordability considering wage inflation along with it

ffactj

lima wrote: »

:rolleyes: your condescending post appears to suggest you have a chip about young people.. it must be because of the harsh times in the 80's wow

Yes we have better lives than you did back then, but it's extremely hard to buy an equivalent house now, and thus we have to work much harder than you did to get a nice big house. Deal with it.

You are like a broken record at this stage tbh.
Give over will you.
You think you have it though. You dont. And banging on about older people taking up houses that you could have for nothing if they werent in them doesnt help your cause.
Have a bit of respect for those people who put you through school and got you your precious degree. Degrees are ten a penny these days. They nearly come with a box of corn flakes. everyone has one. If you want to mark yourself out go get a phd.
You need to work for what you want, not complain that other people have it when you dont.

ffactj

Barely Hedged wrote: »

The central point is timing not your finger in the arse statements. Youd be some gob****e not to say interest rates are going to go up but the question is when and at what rate and how will this affect affordability considering wage inflation along with it

I think that was his point.

Barely Hedged

ffactj wrote: »

I think that was his point.

No it wasn't

lima

ffactj wrote: »

You are like a broken record at this stage tbh.
Give over will you.
You think you have it though. You dont. And banging on about older people taking up houses that you could have for nothing if they werent in them doesnt help your cause.
Have a bit of respect for those people who put you through school and got you your precious degree. Degrees are ten a penny these days. They nearly come with a box of corn flakes. everyone has one. If you want to mark yourself out go get a phd.
You need to work for what you want, not complain that other people have it when you dont.

Haha wait, I'm pretty sure my parents put me through school and I have more than paid off my degree.

Yeah I'd like to see you do my engineering degree! Funny thing is I get paid the same as my colleague who has a phd so you unfortunately you are wrong.

Sorry I have no respect for anyone who contributed to what this place is like today, it is a mess. You guys kinda failed.

I don't want to take anyone's house I said we have to work harder to get for e.g a 5br house that someone did back then.

I can rightly complain when the older generation who caused this mess can sit pretty in their big houses that are worth multiples of what they paid for, while they use cash to outbid young people on properties. It shouldn't be this way.

Sucks that you had it rough with no telephone or whatever but fact is I will have to work harder than you to get a large house and it will not rise to ten times in value like many did.

ffactj

lima wrote: »

Haha wait, I'm pretty sure my parents put me through school and I have more than paid off my degree.

Yeah I'd like to see you do my engineering degree! Funny thing is I get paid the same as my colleague who has a phd so you unfortunately you are wrong.

Sorry I have no respect for anyone who contributed to what this place is like today, it is a mess. You guys kinda failed.

I don't want to take anyone's house I said we have to work harder to get for e.g a 5br house that someone did back then.

I can rightly complain when the older generation who caused this mess can sit pretty in their big houses that are worth multiples of what they paid for, while they use cash to outbid young people on properties. It shouldn't be this way.

Sucks that you had it rough with no telephone or whatever but fact is I will have to work harder than you to get a large house and it will not rise to ten times in value like many did.

There you go again. So you didnt benefit from free education i suppose. Your parents paid for it all did they?

Seriously. Stop digging will you.
You are really not coming across well at all. Are you trolling. Nobody could possibly have the sense of entitlement that you have.

And now its older peoples fault that you are sour and bitter.

And how do you know you worked harder than me to buy a house. I bought my house in 2004 and i worked damn hard to get it and pay the mortgage. But not as hard as the pensioners who worked even harder in their day than you or I.

Frank Lee Midere

ffactj wrote: »

Accuse me of lying all you want.
You looked it up on the web. I was there and lived it.
What is it about celtic cubs who think that if its on the internet it must be true and if they cant find it on the internet it must not have happened.
You really have no clue what the 80s was like. And even the second half of the 80s was infinitely better than the first half for lifestyle.

Ask anyone around the age of 45 or so for first hand information.
They'll all tell you how many people had phones when they were growing up.

your anecdotes wouldn't trump data.

What makes you think I am a Celtic cub. I was alive in the 80's ( am 38) and in Ireland for some of it and I can tell you you are taking bollocks. In the rural area we lived in most people had landlines. Just asked my 75 year old dad. He agrees.

Frank Lee Midere

ffactj wrote: »

As usual. You are not getting the point.

The point needs to be expressed better, then.

There isn't a bull argument here which doesn't depend on special circumstances continuing for a long time. We need wage inflation but no other inflation ( or interest rates will rise), historically low interest rates to continue indefinitely, immigration to continue, continued growth in Ireland's export markets, the continuation of cash as a serious player, demand matching increased supply and no effect from the central bank rules. All for a few decades.

lima

ffactj wrote: »

There you go again. So you didnt benefit from free education i suppose. Your parents paid for it all did they?

Seriously. Stop digging will you.
You are really not coming across well at all. Are you trolling. Nobody could possibly have the sense of entitlement that you have.

And now its older peoples fault that you are sour and bitter.

And how do you know you worked harder than me to buy a house. I bought my house in 2004 and i worked damn hard to get it and pay the mortgage. But not as hard as the pensioners who worked even harder in their day than you or I.

My parents let me live with them and provided food for me, the rest I worked for. I also paid for registration fees. The government have more than received payback for sending me to college through taxes, I have already stated this, I fail to see how you do not comprehend this.

I would suggest that you are the troll, you clearly have a chip about young people (calling them celtic pups). Perhaps you are jealous of something.

I am not digging for anything, I don't know what you mean by that.

I do not feel I am entitled to anything, I have said this before, not sure what you are talking about here either.

I am far from sour and bitter, in fact things could not be better.

Some of those pensioners are enjoying a fabulous retirement in a large house somewhere, they are damn lucky that they bought their houses when they did because no one would be able to afford them nowadays on salaries alone.

lima

MouseTail wrote: »

Every time I revisit this forum, Lima has a different person / cohort to blame for missing the bottom.

Interesting, I do not seem to.

Dr Turk Turkelton

Barely Hedged wrote: »

No it wasn't

Thanks but I'm old enough to answer for myself.

Now I'll just sit back and wait for my prophecies to come true and proclaim myself an economic genius like certain other economists do.

Crumbs868

Not sure if this angle has been covered, too much rubbish posting between posters over the last 30 pages to try find out.

Everyone is predicting a slump because of the new cb rules, has anyone explored the other side of the coin and instead stability as opposed to a large fall?

- biggest one being less incentives for negative equity owners to sell as they will be left with a larger carry over loan and no home so instead hang in there and at least have a home,
- fire sales have already happened,
- reasonable supply is still a long long way away and could be further away if prices fall back to 2011 as less profit for developers - at the moment many developers are building 5 or 6 houses at a time as they get a feel for demand,
- rents continue to rise further encouraging people away from it,
- renting in Ireland is soul destroying, queues at viewings where you have to sell yourself to arrogant estate agents, then hand over highly personal information to them knowing full well this information will not be treated privately not to mention the tortuous living from 12 mth lease to 12 mth lease with no security beyond it lifestyle,
- unemployment continues to fall especially in dublin putting further pressure on rent,
- more emigrants returning,
- people who have sat back over the last few mths because of the cb announcement(anticipating a slowdown) who have the 20% deposit who are causing a cooling if the market will return to the market in q1 15.

Obviously there are 20 arguments predicting a large price fall but surely the above could be enough to prevent the predicted double dip, even if it's artificial in nature due to continued lack of supply.

Barely Hedged

Dr Turk Turkelton wrote: »

Thanks but I'm old enough to answer for myself.

Now I'll just sit back and wait for my prophecies to come true and proclaim myself an economic genius like certain other economists do.

?

Barely Hedged

Crumbs868 wrote: »

Not sure if this angle has been covered, too much rubbish posting between posters over the last 30 pages to try find out.

Everyone is predicting a slump because of the new cb rules, has anyone explored the other side of the coin and instead stability as opposed to a large fall?

- biggest one being less incentives for negative equity owners to sell as they will be left with a larger carry over loan and no home so instead hang in there and at least have a home,
- fire sales have already happened,
- reasonable supply is still a long long way away and could be further away if prices fall back to 2011 as less profit for developers - at the moment many developers are building 5 or 6 houses at a time as they get a feel for demand,
- rents continue to rise further encouraging people away from it,
- renting in Ireland is soul destroying, queues at viewings where you have to sell yourself to arrogant estate agents, then hand over highly personal information to them knowing full well this information will not be treated privately not to mention the tortuous living from 12 mth lease to 12 mth lease with no security beyond it lifestyle,
- unemployment continues to fall especially in dublin putting further pressure on rent,
- more emigrants returning,
- people who have sat back over the last few mths because of the cb announcement(anticipating a slowdown) who have the 20% deposit who are causing a cooling if the market will return to the market in q1 15.

Obviously there are 20 arguments predicting a large price fall but surely the above could be enough to prevent the predicted double dip, even if it's artificial in nature due to continued lack of supply.

I think exactly the same as yourself. Most of the post is a common sense interpretation of the reality of the situation