Dublin House Prices 2015

euroboom13

property is heading for a double dip.

1)cb new lending rules
2)interest rate`s are about to exit all time lows
3)new entry income levels are way lower than the were 10yrs
4)buy to let capitol repayment exemptions are a thing of the past.

When rates start to normalise ," buy to lets "will be but on the market very fast.

Dont believe the rubbish talk of property bubble, it will just put you in the same hole everyone in 2007 is trying to escape from.
Good luck.....

lima

jmayo wrote: »

You know what happens when you make assumptions.
You know diddly squat about me and frankly I don't think I would want to know much more about you.

BTW I was able to apply skills I learnt in junior infants, nevermind my degree, to my career and hell my day to day life.
Difference between us is I dont' go around bragging about it.

BTW we should learn something new every day, be in your work or just in your life, even right up to the day you die.
That is what life is about and it keeps the old brain ticking over.

Anyway I am out of here since this is going nowhere slowly, apart from towards a ban.

How is it bragging - it's the reason I went to college!

I agree about learning something new every day

I agree that this is going nowhere so I will go too..

Barely Hedged

gaius c wrote: »

This country has a significant bias against taxing asset rish/cash poor people, instead preferring to tax people with ready cash but possibly no assets.

CGT increased from 20% - 30%.

1% tax on pensions.

New Property tax

Barely Hedged

euroboom13 wrote: »

property is heading for a double dip.

1)cb new lending rules
2)interest rate`s are about to exit all time lows
3)new entry income levels are way lower than the were 10yrs
4)buy to let capitol repayment exemptions are a thing of the past.

When rates start to normalise ," buy to lets "will be but on the market very fast.

Dont believe the rubbish talk of property bubble, it will just put you in the same hole everyone in 2007 is trying to escape from.
Good luck.....

1 - shoddy lending is not why prices have increased. It is a bounce back from a huge under valuation

2 - "about too". Are you looking at the same forward rate curve for EUR that im looking at now? Yours is pretty wonky

3 - true, but how lower? 10%. So prices should be cheaper than they were 10 years ago. Pretty much at that level now

4 - How much income is saved from this?

Lainomac

handlemaster wrote: »

Its to late now if buyer were to go sale agreed this week. Draw down more likely new year and into new deposit rules

This is not true, it isnt too late to buy now under the current ratios. We just went sale agreed 2 weeks ago, after the announcement of the new rules and we are not affected in anyway, as another user said, nothing is actually set in stone yet

euroboom13

Barely Hedged wrote: »

1 - shoddy lending is not why prices have increased. It is a bounce back from a huge under valuation

2 - "about too". Are you looking at the same forward rate curve for EUR that im looking at now? Yours is pretty wonky

3 - true, but how lower? 10%. So prices should be cheaper than they were 10 years ago. Pretty much at that level now

4 - How much income is saved from this?

Fill your boots than ,my friend ,fill your boots!

Would not wish the pain of 07 on anyone ,but you go right ahead.You obviously have it all figured out.

gaius c

Barely Hedged wrote: »

CGT increased from 20% - 30%.

1% tax on pensions.

New Property tax

Pension tax is being rolled back. No danger of that happening with USC's and the like.

Mr.McLovin

Barely Hedged wrote: »

1 - shoddy lending is not why prices have increased. It is a bounce back from a huge under valuation

so you wouldn't subscribe to prices being the way they are because of a lack of repossessions, lack of supply and various government schemes like CGT and MIR among other reasons?

under valuation maybe apart of it but after one of the biggest economical crashes which most of evolved around property would you not expect it to remain subdued at a low level for a long time? It just feels wrong to me the whole scenario where we're a third of the way back to boom time prices in some parts of the country.

BTW I respect your views and opinions as balance is a good thing, instead of people hoping things were different than actually being that way

Michael D Not Higgins

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

so you wouldn't subscribe to prices being the way they are because of a lack of repossessions, lack of supply and various government schemes like CGT and MIR among other reasons?

Let's say repossessions were taking place. Where do you think those people are going to live when their house is taken off them? You're just displacing one group of people for another. It does nothing to help supply and prices remain the same. If you're talking about repossessing BTLs, they're already happening.

The main reason why the prices are rising is because of lack of supply. The reason why we have a lack of supply is the housing crash, which had a two factor result, removal of a lot of construction workers, developers, etc. and limit to the profitability of construction.

The daft.ie report shows that if the average household income is 50k, then the average house price is capped at ~250k (they use round numbers for the example). Then to encourage building, we need the average house cost to be profitable to sell at 250k. This means costs need to be below 200k, preferably around 150k to encourage building and increasing supply.

There are a number of ways to achieve this, but focusing on the home owners is not the right way. We need to sort out supply by building. The population is growing and more houses are needed.

jmayo

by the seaside wrote: »

I am just pondering your statement about life not being fair. If it isn't fair, then what is the objection to punitive taxes against large family houses occupied by retired couples or single people? If it is fair, then what is your plan to help families who can't get affordable family houses because a significant proportion of them are underoccupied by retired couples or single people?

So your idea is to make if fairer by screwing people who probably worked hard all their lives and got themselves a nice home.

And are you not also saying that anyone in a house bigger than they might need (e.g. more bedrooms than people in house) should be punished ?
So by extension single people should not be allowed have a big house even if they can afford to buy it ?

Sounds a bit lile communism to me, although that was really based on who you knew rather than what you could afford or how deserving you were.

The solution to helping families buy affordable homes, not houses, is that more new property is built where it is needed and repossessions occur where people are not paying for the property they have.
Note I said homes not houses.
Ireland is going to have to start building up at some stage rather than out.
Firstly of course development land that is sitting idle, or derelict sites, in prime locations should be forced into development through taxing the sites until developed.
And no this is not same as taxing someone living in a single large home.
It is taxing someone sitting on an investment.

But from your posts, you (and some other posters) seem to think a current crop of home buyers should have a right to buy in certain areas at certain affordable prices and you appear to think some existing owners should be bullied out of the area to free it up for you.

I might like to buy some farmland, but it is limited in supply and prices may be outside my affordability.
Should I demand some ould fella be hounded out because he happend to be alive 40 years before me and was able to afford the same land 40 years ago ?

My point about life isn't fair is that those people happen to be around when either those areas were not considered desirable or when the prices were cheaper and affordable in terms of their salaries at the time of purchase.
Those same people could say life isn't fair because they never got a chance of "free" education like a lot of younger generations or they couldn't afford to see the world without taking out a small mortgage to pay for the flights as opposed to the plethora of cheap flights today.

handlemaster

Lainomac wrote: »

This is not true, it isnt too late to buy now under the current ratios. We just went sale agreed 2 weeks ago, after the announcement of the new rules and we are not affected in anyway, as another user said, nothing is actually set in stone yet

and you think you will have funds drawn down and property registered before the new year ?? Good luck with that :pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:

Michael D Not Higgins

handlemaster wrote: »

and you think you will have funds drawn down and property registered before the new year ?? Good luck with that :pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:

You don't need to draw down before the new year.

Mr.McLovin

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

Let's say repossessions were taking place. Where do you think those people are going to live when their house is taken off them? You're just displacing one group of people for another. It does nothing to help supply and prices remain the same. If you're talking about repossessing BTLs, they're already happening.

The main reason why the prices are rising is because of lack of supply. The reason why we have a lack of supply is the housing crash, which had a two factor result, removal of a lot of construction workers, developers, etc. and limit to the profitability of construction.

The daft.ie report shows that if the average household income is 50k, then the average house price is capped at ~250k (they use round numbers for the example). Then to encourage building, we need the average house cost to be profitable to sell at 250k. This means costs need to be below 200k, preferably around 150k to encourage building and increasing supply.

There are a number of ways to achieve this, but focusing on the home owners is not the right way. We need to sort out supply by building. The population is growing and more houses are needed.

I'm not suggesting putting people out on to the streets. If somebody was to find themselves in this situation I don't think its unreasonable to do the same thing a lot of first time buyers are finding themselves in and that is to move to places where there is a supply. That's a different long story though...

I feel its a supply issue also, I feel its a bottle neck and I think if houses were built it would solve that bottle neck and prices might dip again which leaves lenders and developers in a bit of a weird place, hence the lack of lending and lack of building

by the seaside

jmayo wrote: »

So your idea is to make if fairer by screwing people who probably worked hard all their lives and got themselves a nice home.

But if life's not fair, what's your objection?

jmayo

by the seaside wrote: »

But if life's not fair, what's your objection?

My objection is that some people think they are owed something because they don't have it or someone else was there before them either through luck or accident of birth.

Do you think because life isn't fair to you (e.g you can't buy a house that you want for a price you want) that life should be made unfair to someone else who happens to live there to even it up in your favour ?

I could claim life hasn't been fair to me because I wasn't born with the talent of Messi, does that mean I should demand he gets his legs broken to even it up ?
Mind you he would still be bloody better.

by the seaside

jmayo wrote: »

My objection is that some people think they are owed something because they don't have it or someone else was there before them either through luck or accident of birth.

Do you think because life isn't fair to you (e.g you can't buy a house that you want for a price you want) that life should be made unfair to someone else who happens to live there to even it up in your favour ?

I could claim life hasn't been fair to me because I wasn't born with the talent of Messi, does that mean I should demand he gets his legs broken to even it up ?
Mind you he would still be bloody better.

Talent is not a limited resource, so one person's possession of talent does not prevent another person's possession of talent.

Also, I'm not suggesting that we knock down the old couple's house to even it up, to apply your analogy.

But if life is not unfair as you suggest, then why apply fairness to the old couple? If life is fair, then why not apply some to the priced out young family? If it is all a bit more nuanced, then why not find some carrots and sticks to make more efficient use of a limited resource?

ffactj

lima wrote: »

Why is it ridiculous? Why, for example, should someone on more than the average wage not be afforded the opportunity to purchase a home to live in? Not everyone gets married, not everyone 'buddys up'.

What is the point in working through college and hustling every day to earn money, when property prices have become so insanely high in this country that you need two people on decent salaries to buy one?

How is it normal/accepted that old biddies and old farts are living in 1m+ houses sitting pretty in decent suburbs in Dublin who don't even know how to operate a computer? These people bought their houses for a few thousand and now, through no college, and no hustling, have assets worth millions. No matter now many degrees, and no matter how many promotions I get, I personally won't ever be able to afford what they have, and some of them have done feck all to earn it.

How is this allowed and why do people accept it? So so many vested interests restricting stock, driving up prices and sitting pretty in giant PPR's and owning multiple investment properties.

Not to forget, even though we have a high opinion of ourselves, we are a peripheral EU country with a tiny population, with awful weather, awful infrastructure and an awful health system, to name a few. We are absolutely nothing in comparison to real cities in the world.

Oh my gawwwd.
Looks like the celtic tiger cubs have taken over the web.
Wow, is all I can say to this.

euroboom13

House prices are ridiculous .
And when interest rates normalise to averages, the penny will drop.

Hold your horses ,buying options of the century before 2020.
(but definitely not seeing any bargains now)

Village idiot`s stretching to buy at low rates and can't see ,rate rises killing their future. go figure?

NZ_2014

ffactj wrote: »

Oh my gawwwd.
Looks like the celtic tiger cubs have taken over the web.
Wow, is all I can say to this.

He makes some interesting points though.

Can somebody provide us with an average salary to house price ratio over the last 50 years?

Celtic tiger cubs...funny old phrase..

dubrov

NZ_2014 wrote: »

He makes some interesting points though.

Can somebody provide us with an average salary to house price ratio over the last 50 years?

Celtic tiger cubs...funny old phrase..

Ratios 20 years ago are not really relevant to today.

Completely different environment with much higher interest rates.
Higher interest rates generally mean lower ratios

NZ_2014

dubrov wrote: »

Ratios 20 years ago are not really relevant to today.

Completely different environment with much higher interest rates.
Higher interest rates generally mean lower ratios

Can anybody provide a meaningful study on house affordability then and now which takes everything into account.

ffactj

NZ_2014 wrote: »

Can anybody provide a meaningful study on house affordability then and now which takes everything into account.

I doubt it. Far too many variables.

But I do remember it was extremely difficult to buy a house in the 80s and 90s. I was easy as p1ss in the 2000s and its moderately difficult now.
There were higher taxes, higher interest rates, lower paying jobs, hardly anybody ever got to go to uni. Work was generally harder. Things like food, tvs all that stuff we take as being cheap for granted today was much more expensive relative to income. Hardly anyone ever left Ireland for a holiday. I have much respect for my parents and grandparents generation. Sickens me when I hear the celtic cubs these days thinking the older generation somehow has had an easy life.

And in the 80s if you bought a house in Bray, Naas, Swords etc you were an hour and a half from Dublin city center where most of the jobs were clustered around. Nowadays those places are within 30 or 45 mins of Dublin city center. Location of them is better now than it was then, relative to amenities and just getting around, so more expensive. If you want a similar situation so you get cheaper prices you have to travel to Gorey, Carlow, Dundalk etc. But people still want to all live close to Dublin. ==> Prices go up.

And probably the biggest difference is that since the late 90s it is necessary to have 2 salaries in most cases to buy a house. The reason being that most households at the FTB point in their lives will now have two salaries. Before that women were just not considered a major part of the workforce and a salary for them wasnt expected from the building societies or banks when applying for a mortgage. The households with only one salary just cannot compete with them now on buying power, so will be depending on council houses if they want a house, just like the generations before them who could not afford a house (Tough pill to swallow for all those who like to call themselves middle class but are actually working class).

Life has changed with time, and will continue to change.

Moomat

Sign of things to come?

ffactj

Moomat wrote: »

Sign of things to come?

Any price changes for nice areas where people actually want to live though?

bitemeluis

ffactj wrote: »

Any price changes for nice areas where people actually want to live though?

Very true - have been observing price changes & new entries every day for the last Year or so... IMO these price decreases come from overpriced entry valuations in unpopular areas

murphaph

gaius c wrote: »

This country has a significant bias against taxing asset rish/cash poor people, instead preferring to tax people with ready cash but possibly no assets.

Gift and inheritance tax thresholds have been slashed in recent years and there's no progression with these taxes. It's a straight 33%. That is brutal compared to most countries.

lima

ffactj wrote: »

Oh my gawwwd.
Looks like the celtic tiger cubs have taken over the web.
Wow, is all I can say to this.

What a terrible post, have you nothing constructive to say?

Interestingly I am from a working class background and have worked my way up to now, my parents don't have any money apart from their house. I worked since I was 15 and contributed a lot through college. Worked abroad for 7 years and I'm hardly a cub these days! In fact, I was not here for the 'boom' when all the idiots bought houses and done cocaine.

But go on, please, continue..

lima

ffactj wrote: »

I have much respect for my parents and grandparents generation. Sickens me when I hear the celtic cubs these days thinking the older generation somehow has had an easy life.

The households with only one salary just cannot compete with them now on buying power, so will be depending on council houses if they want a house, just like the generations before them who could not afford a house (Tough pill to swallow for all those who like to call themselves middle class but are actually working class).

Haha wow

It's pretty clear to me that all the 60+ people in my area are sitting pretty in luxurious houses that they bought for nothing back in the day, which are worth millions now. That's a pretty easy life.

So basically, just because women earn money now then houses prices should double and triple? It really seems idiotic. Unfortunately the people in charge did not seem to plan for the future and so Dublin has remained a city squeezed into a 'town'. Such that biddys and farts are living in inner-suburban mansions where high-rise apartments should be like they are in every other city.


And regarding your really really stupid comment:

"The households with only one salary just cannot compete with them now on buying power, so will be depending on council houses if they want a house, just like the generations before them who could not afford a house (Tough pill to swallow for all those who like to call themselves middle class but are actually working class)."

..are you saying that everyone on one salary should apply for a council house? haha listen, not everyone is in a 'double salary' relationship. In fact, I am but my other half is not going to contribute to the mortgage because we are not dumb enough to get locked into a super-high mortgage like some people who are now fooked.

gaius c

ffactj wrote: »

Any price changes for nice areas where people actually want to live though?

Personally, I'd be very happy to live in Kimmage but not enough snob value for you perhaps?

The_Morrigan

Folks if you don't cut out the condescending comments and snide remarks I will lock down this thread.