Dublin House Prices 2015

Barely Hedged

euroboom13 wrote: »

Fill your boots than ,my friend ,fill your boots!

Would not wish the pain of 07 on anyone ,but you go right ahead.You obviously have it all figured out.

No specifics, all agenda. Please answer my four points

Barely Hedged

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

so you wouldn't subscribe to prices being the way they are because of a lack of repossessions, lack of supply and various government schemes like CGT and MIR among other reasons?

under valuation maybe apart of it but after one of the biggest economical crashes which most of evolved around property would you not expect it to remain subdued at a low level for a long time? It just feels wrong to me the whole scenario where we're a third of the way back to boom time prices in some parts of the country.

BTW I respect your views and opinions as balance is a good thing, instead of people hoping things were different than actually being that way

They are factors, definitely. I dont disagree on any of the 3 components you point out. However the main component is the economy improving and the impact this has on expectations of a persons salary, job security etc. The huge under valuation is down to the massive economic shock we were undergoing. Forget about the dot com bust, Black Monday etc. This was the entire countrys banks potentially going bankrupt - it was the biggest economic **** storm ever. It was a pretty bleak hole we were in.

We're no longer in that bleak hole. There is expectation and security returning/returned to the market and this is pushing prices up from their undervalued state. Do i think 25% to 30% increases are sustainable - no (i see growth or falls of between 5% - 10% next year). But, people thinking were going back to 2011 prices because they all think the past two years of economic growth are an illusion and they think an economic crash bigger than all the countrys banks potentially going backrupt is on the horizon are nothing but delusional.

Suck it up - you (not you in particular) missed the boat. Stop clinging to any shred of insignificant bit of negative news about the housing market.

lima

Barely Hedged wrote: »

the main component is the economy improving and the impact this has on expectations of a persons salary, job security etc.

What do you mean by this?

Also, I would say that property wasn't overvalued, it went back down to normal prices (well, almost, not by enough) and now it is increasing to extreme values.

Barely Hedged

lima wrote: »

What do you mean by this?

Also, I would say that property wasn't overvalued, it went back down to normal prices (well, almost, not by enough) and now it is increasing to extreme values.

Take a look at all the economic indicators/data since 2011 for Ireland that are released weekly and monthly. Do you have access to Bloomberg/Reuters or even their website should publish it?

By no way were they normal. They were cheap cheap. I gave an example of a housing estate in Tallaght where a lot of Gardai, nurses and teachers live and are currently buying. I gave this as an example as everybody knows, or should know as their salaries are open for the public to enquire on, and from this yu can deduce the affordability of the purchase. You could buy a three bed, semi detached with a garage for between €170k - €175k in move in nick. Please dont say this is normal

euroboom13

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Give me an example of a house - what its asking price is now and what you think it should be worth.

I don't need to give you one example ,I will give you averages.

Average wages x2 is less than 60k.
3.5 times 60k= 210k (I am being over generous because banks wont allow you x3.5 of both salaries )

So average wage earner, in TWO income households, can only afford well under 300k?

So in my opinion 3bed starter homes need to be about 150k to 200k.

But I haven`t a dog in this fight and is only an opinion. Not willing to be linched by mainstream opinion, but be aware low rates is a trap!

Barely Hedged

euroboom13 wrote: »

I don't need to give you one example ,I will give you averages.

Average wages x2 is less than 60k.
3.5 times 60k= 210k (I am being over generous because banks wont allow you x3.5 of both salaries )

So average wage earner, in TWO income households, can only afford well under 300k?

So in my opinion 3bed starter homes need to be about 150k to 200k.

But I haven`t a dog in this fight and is only an opinion. Not will to be linched by mainstream opinion, but be aware low rates is a trap!

Average wages is a rubbish example. Median is much better. I dont know many people on €30k a year that are 30 - assuming a working life of 12 years max. Theyre on much more. Im talking about "blue collar" professions.

Give over with this low rates agenda you keep spouting. Say when they will increase, to what level and how this will affect affordabilty. Without a clear time line, this is another rubbish point.

euroboom13

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Average wages is a rubbish example. Median is much better. I dont know many people on €30k a year that are 30 - assuming a working life of 12 years max. Theyre on much more. Im talking about "blue collar" professions.

Give over with this low rates agenda you keep spouting. Say when they will increase, to what level and how this will affect affordabilty. Without a clear time line, this is another rubbish point.

Average wage, is average from 66 years to 16, can't be fairer than that.

Blue collar professionals are the exception and should be able to afford above average.

Rates will increase next year, globally and in Europe.

Sorry for spouting sense.

The Spider

euroboom13 wrote: »

Average wage, is average from 66 years to 16, can't be fairer than that.

Blue collar professionals are the exception and should be able to afford above average.

Rates will increase next year, globally and in Europe.

Sorry for spouting sense.

Blue collar by definition isn't professional, you're getting mixed up with white collar.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue-collar_worker

Honestly I don't think you know what you're talking about. 30 grand is an entry level salary these days, and people on that salary have no business buying houses in the capital, maybe in west Dublin, sorry if that's harsh but they clearly can't afford home ownership.

Barely Hedged

euroboom13 wrote: »

Average wage, is average from 66 years to 16, can't be fairer than that.

Blue collar professionals are the exception and should be able to afford above average.

Rates will increase next year, globally and in Europe.

Sorry for spouting sense.

Horseplop:

The average worker’s wage fell to under €41,000 last year — a drop of over 4.5% since 2008.
According to the latest figures from the CSO, the average annual salary fell from €41,226 in 2010 to €40,775 last year — a drop of 1.1%.



http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/average-annual-salary-falls-to-40775-213305.html


Blue collar worker above average??? Theyre the very definition of average.


Rates will increase in the UK and US, not in Europe. Refer to my earlier point on the BoE rate in 2007 and tell me how this will affect afforability?

euroboom13

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Horseplop:

The average worker’s wage fell to under €41,000 last year — a drop of over 4.5% since 2008.
According to the latest figures from the CSO, the average annual salary fell from €41,226 in 2010 to €40,775 last year — a drop of 1.1%.



http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/average-annual-salary-falls-to-40775-213305.html


Blue collar worker above average??? Theyre the very definition of average.



Rates will increase in the UK and US, not in Europe. Refer to my earlier point on the BoE rate in 2007 and tell me how this will affect afforability?

Use your(on my search came up as 23k) figures then 40 x2 x3.5= 280k
Even if you add deposit that's 340k ,still doesn`t make sense of new homes in swords (relative affordable area).

Enough of the horseplop kid

Michael D Not Higgins

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Horseplop:

The average worker’s wage fell to under €41,000 last year — a drop of over 4.5% since 2008.
According to the latest figures from the CSO, the average annual salary fell from €41,226 in 2010 to €40,775 last year — a drop of 1.1%.



http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/average-annual-salary-falls-to-40775-213305.html


Blue collar worker above average??? Theyre the very definition of average.


Rates will increase in the UK and US, not in Europe. Refer to my earlier point on the BoE rate in 2007 and tell me how this will affect afforability?

Those numbers appear to include employer costs of wages, and the article says the average wage has dropped from 36.1k to 35.9k, i.e. the average industrial wage of 36k as quoted by the media so often.

The median wage is about 10k less than this. Therefore the majority of the country are on less than 30k a year.

Barely Hedged

euroboom13 wrote: »

Use your(on my search came up as 23k) figures then 40 x2 x3.5= 280k
Even if you add deposit that's 340k ,still doesn`t make sense of new homes in swords (relative affordable area).

Enough of the horseplop kid

All look like average and above houses to me:

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/34-ardcian-park-swords-north-county-dublin/2878180

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-holywell-view-swords-co-dublin/2918757

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/15-castleview-meadows-swords-co-dublin/2959950

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/4-elmwood-court-swords-north-county-dublin/2913797

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/52-oaklands-avenue-swords-co-dublin/2972886

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/111-sandford-wood-swords-dublin/2852726

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/28-brookdale-road-swords-north-county-dublin/2972676

Barely Hedged

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

Those numbers appear to include employer costs of wages, and the article says the average wage has dropped from 36.1k to 35.9k, i.e. the average industrial wage of 36k as quoted by the media so often.

The median wage is about 10k less than this. Therefore the majority of the country are on less than 30k a year.

Apologies - my mistake - i was reversing the two.

They are payable by the employer and employee. It is your gross income, whatever way you break it down, The average wage will also increase over the next two years when income tax is eased back, as has been publicly stated.

The majority of the country dont live in Dublin and it is a fair assumption that the majority of the above average earners in Ireland live in Dublin which directly impacts the price of Dublin houses.

euroboom13

Barely Hedged wrote: »

All look like average and above houses to me:

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/34-ardcian-park-swords-north-county-dublin/2878180

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-holywell-view-swords-co-dublin/2918757

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/15-castleview-meadows-swords-co-dublin/2959950

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/4-elmwood-court-swords-north-county-dublin/2913797

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/52-oaklands-avenue-swords-co-dublin/2972886

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/111-sandford-wood-swords-dublin/2852726

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/28-brookdale-road-swords-north-county-dublin/2972676

My friend if you think these house are affordable buy one.
I wouldn`t pay over 200k for these and I have been involved with property for 30yrs.

Repayments of about 1500 a month that could go to 2200 a month on the whim of your FRIENDLY bank manager.

There will be a better time (if you cant see that, fair enough, I wish you well)

euroboom13

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Apologies - my mistake - i was reversing the two.

They are payable by the employer and employee. It is your gross income, whatever way you break it down, The average wage will also increase over the next two years when income tax is eased back, as has been publicly stated.

The majority of the country dont live in Dublin and it is a fair assumption that the majority of the above average earners in Ireland live in Dublin which directly impacts the price of Dublin houses.

Most rural prices are reasonable with averages 100k / 150k(wont get into to much trouble there)

Michael D Not Higgins

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Apologies - my mistake - i was reversing the two.

They are payable by the employer and employee. It is your gross income, whatever way you break it down, The average wage will also increase over the next two years when income tax is eased back, as has been publicly stated.

The majority of the country dont live in Dublin and it is a fair assumption that the majority of the above average earners in Ireland live in Dublin which directly impacts the price of Dublin houses.

Reversing what two? You seem confused on the cost of the wages to the employer, gross wage of the employee, net wage of the employee, averages and medians.

The median is the level at which 50% of the data points are below/above. Averages are skewed by very high or very low data points. The majority of the population make less than the average wage, with the median at a level thousands less than 36k. The only reliable information I can find is CSO data from 2007 showing median was 20% less than average. Extrapolating that to today, the median is about 29k.

Barely Hedged

euroboom13 wrote: »

My friend if you think these house are affordable buy one.
I wouldn`t pay over 200k for these and I have been involved with property for 30yrs.

Repayments of about 1500 a month that could go to 2200 a month on the whim of your FRIENDLY bank manager.

There will be a better time (if you cant see that, fair enough, I wish you well)

I get it - and if the same house was priced at 200k it is overvalued and should be 150k.

Need i say anymore than the attachment when you talk about repayments and the ability of a bank manager to increase rates from 6.5% to 11%?

Barely Hedged

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

Reversing what two? You seem confused on the cost of the wages to the employer, gross wage of the employee, net wage of the employee, averages and medians.

The median is the level at which 50% of the data points are below/above. Averages are skewed by very high or very low data points. The majority of the population make less than the average wage, with the median at a level thousands less than 36k. The only reliable information I can find is CSO data from 2007 showing median was 20% less than average. Extrapolating that to today, the median is about 29k.

I read it as quoting median initially, hence the reverse. I was trying to do a few things at once.

Im well aware of the difference between a median and average

woodseb

Barely Hedged wrote: »

I get it - and if the same house was priced at 200k it is overvalued and should be 150k.

Need i say anymore than the attachment when you talk about repayments and the ability of a bank manager to increase rates from 6.5% to 11%?

Good post. Refreshing when someone cuts through the bull**** with actual data

Maybe what euroboom meant when he said he's been involved in property for 30 years is that he lived in a house

euroboom13

woodseb wrote: »

Good post. Refreshing when someone cuts through the bull**** with actual data

Maybe what euroboom meant when he said he's been involved in property for 30 years is that he lived in a house

my god the arrogance of these property rampers, believe you me, I have survived property speculation my whole life(very successfully) and I can tell you for a fact that neither of you two will.

KIS..keep it simple

If rate `s go up , property values will go down.

You bet how you like but that is a fact.

Second fact, is house prices are at the upper end of affordability ,not the lower.

But you think your the mavericks. Takes more than reading newspapers too see whats going on here.

I will remind you of your mistake`s in two years time.

Barely Hedged

euroboom13 wrote: »

my god the arrogance of these property rampers, believe you me, I have survived property speculation my whole life(very successfully) and I can tell you for a fact that neither of you two will.

KIS..keep it simple

If rate `s go up , property values will go down.

You bet how you like but that is a fact.

Second fact, is house prices are at the upper end of affordability ,not the lower.

But you think your the mavericks. Takes more than reading newspapers too see whats going on here.

I will remind you of your mistake`s in two years time.

I agree. Property is a simple enough investment if you do the simple things right. Also, higher rates do mean lower property prices.

On interest rates, given your previous posts, you don't have a notion about them. You talk about them going up but you don't have a clue when it will happen, to what level they will increase to and the cost associated with not investing while you wait on them to go up.

Your more than welcome to look through my posts for the past two years and see the evidence I presented and how it would impact the property market. Well then convene back here in two years to laugh at your predictions

euroboom13

Barely Hedged wrote: »

I agree. Property is a simple enough investment if you do the simple things right. Also, higher rates do mean lower property prices.

On interest rates, given your previous posts, you don't have a notion about them. You talk about them going up but you don't have a clue when it will happen, to what level they will increase to and the cost associated with not investing while you wait on them to go up.

Your more than welcome to look through my posts for the past two years and see the evidence I presented and how it would impact the property market. Well then convene back here in two years to laugh at your predictions

Haven`t a notion! You wouldn`t need to be a brain surgeon to know rates have to rise, or would you?
No reason necessary, they are unrealistically low.

I must read more of your posts to find out more about rates ? thanks(very complicated stuff)

euroboom13

Barely Hedged wrote: »

I agree. Property is a simple enough investment if you do the simple things right. Also, higher rates do mean lower property prices.

On interest rates, given your previous posts, you don't have a notion about them. You talk about them going up but you don't have a clue when it will happen, to what level they will increase to and the cost associated with not investing while you wait on them to go up.

Your more than welcome to look through my posts for the past two years and see the evidence I presented and how it would impact the property market. Well then convene back here in two years to laugh at your predictions

If we could answer, when will and how high, rates will go we could make a vast fortune.My guess is very soon and a lot quicker and higher than we are led to believe.(start up next year ,with 4% in 3yrs,cheap oil or QE)good luck

ffactj

euroboom13 wrote: »

Haven`t a notion! You wouldn`t need to be a brain surgeon to know rates have to rise, or would you?
No reason necessary, they are unrealistically low.

I must read more of your posts to find out more about rates ? thanks(very complicated stuff)

I love looking at people who continue to make predictions and see how they did before with those predictions.

I read one of yours from nearly 3 years ago. Hows that prediction going for you.

euroboom13 wrote: »

forget about curency break up....fairy tale.(morgage would be least worry if this happened)

i would be watchful of interest rates and factor in a possible 8/9%or more.

euro is heading for inflation and higher rate`s after these bailouts.FACT!!!(my opinion only:cool:)

But to be fair you're not the only one who keeps getting it wrong but continues trying all the same. Some of the mods here have even deleted posts where I have posted threads with their track records.
I know it can be a sore point to be shown that you are wrong, but how are you ever to learn if its not pointed out to people.

euroboom13

ffactj wrote: »

I love looking at people who continue to make predictions and see how they did before with those predictions.

I read one of yours from nearly 3 years ago. Hows that prediction going for you.




But to be fair you're not the only one who keeps getting it wrong but continues trying all the same. Some of the mods here have even deleted posts where I have posted threads with their track records.
I know it can be a sore point to be shown that you are wrong, but how are you ever to learn if its not pointed out to people.

I am still on the same page ,rates will go up, nothing wrong there but nice research.(did I miss a currency break up?? at that time people thought the euro was going and there was a run to open £ bank accounts)

Barely Hedged

euroboom13 wrote: »

If we could answer, when will and how high, rates will go we could make a vast fortune.My guess is very soon and a lot quicker and higher than we are led to believe.(start up next year ,with 4% in 3yrs,cheap oil or QE)good luck

What time frame is very soon.

Actually, I'm not responding to anymore of your posts. You're way out of your depth spouting all sorts of general rubbish for sucessive posts and when presented with questions to them you've either ignored them or concocted quarter baked ideas to back it up.

EUR rates will go up next year. What are you smoking. The UK economy has been on the up for the past year and a half and a rate hike is being priced in for late next year. Think how far the Eurozone has to come to be in the same state as the UK economy was a year and a half ago.

Then you say cheap oil will cause rates to rise. Are you for real. Oil is one of the main determinants of the inflation index. Cheaper oil equates to lower inflation and implies no rate hike.

You say you worked in property for 30.years. I say you got lucky by buying into an asset years ago that has seen unparalleled appreciation in 30 years. The market now is a completely different beast with capital appreciation slowing considerably in the present and future. You're stuck in the mindset that you'll see the type of appreciation you've seen over 30 years and that it's all overvalued. I say take your money and run because you clearly don't have a clue what you're talking about now. You say a bank manager can up rates from 6.5% to 11% at a whim. You say a house in Swords at 280k is out of the range of a couple on the average industrial wage and overvalued. 40 * 2 * 3.5 = 280 and monthly repayments around 1.3k a month if they took out a mortgage next year. You think prices are going to fall back to 2011 levels during what was probably the greatest economic shock the state has ever faced.

I say you just talk rubbish

MouseTail

euroboom13 wrote: »

at that time people thought the euro was going and there was a run to open £ bank accounts)

No, they didn't really, for every chicken licken shouting about the imminent euro collapse, there was a sensible voice on this forum and others. You got it wrong.

euroboom13

MouseTail wrote: »

No, they didn't really, for every chicken licken shouting about the imminent euro collapse, there was a sensible voice on this forum and others. You got it wrong.

mousetail ====I was one whom rubbished that talk of collapse and spoke up Europe?????

euroboom13

Barely Hedged wrote: »

What time frame is very soon.

Actually, I'm not responding to anymore of your posts. You're way out of your depth spouting all sorts of general rubbish for sucessive posts and when presented with questions to them you've either ignored them or concocted quarter baked ideas to back it up.

EUR rates will go up next year. What are you smoking. The UK economy has been on the up for the past year and a half and a rate hike is being priced in for late next year. Think how far the Eurozone has to come to be in the same state as the UK economy was a year and a half ago.

Then you say cheap oil will cause rates to rise. Are you for real. Oil is one of the main determinants of the inflation index. Cheaper oil equates to lower inflation and implies no rate hike.

You say you worked in property for 30.years. I say you got lucky by buying into an asset years ago that has seen unparalleled appreciation in 30 years. The market now is a completely different beast with capital appreciation slowing considerably in the present and future. You're stuck in the mindset that you'll see the type of appreciation you've seen over 30 years and that it's all overvalued. I say take your money and run because you clearly don't have a clue what you're talking about now. You say a bank manager can up rates from 6.5% to 11% at a whim. You say a house in Swords at 280k is out of the range of a couple on the average industrial wage and overvalued. 40 * 2 * 3.5 = 280 and monthly repayments around 1.3k a month if they took out a mortgage next year. You think prices are going to fall back to 2011 levels during what was probably the greatest economic shock the state has ever faced.

I say you just talk rubbish

Great post ,I will remind you of it .
I said 280 is at the upper end of affordability .
I bought a similar property for 160k in 2011, cash(first buy since 1999 ,after 12yrs selling).
Your wrong about cheap oil (pushes up inflation in Europe)
ECB will up rates next year.
Good luck.

MouseTail

euroboom13 wrote: »

mousetail ====I was one whom rubbished that talk of collapse and spoke up Europe?????

Sorry, misread.