The Political future for County Kildare

HonalD

I know there's a separate politics forum but I'm interested to hear how people feel of the political future for county kildare?

Ken.

In Kildare south we'll have 2 choices in the next election. The new guys that have done fück all or the old guys that done fück all.

granturismo

HonalD wrote: »

I know there's a separate politics forum but I'm interested to hear how people feel of the political future for county kildare?

Maybe you should start the thread with your own opinions?

Hitchens

the Curragh Plains to be sold to a consortium and a magnificent all-weather stadium to be built there and named the Enda Kenny Memorial Stadium

porsche boy

certainly wont be voting for FF/FG or Labour. I'll have to read up on what SF have to offer, going to have to acknowledge one thing though, SF are not the same as IRA.

suppose if we've tried every other party and potential coalition and we're at the point then letting the shinners a swing of the bat cant be the worst idea.

HonalD

granturismo wrote: »

Maybe you should start the thread with your own opinions?

What's the fun in that?

Orion

I think Emmet Stagg is retiring. And Durkan. Which will screw both parties chances to retaining seats.

HonalD

Thanks Diego for your comments. It looks like independent candidates may top the poll this time around. Catherine Murphy should be a near certain. Where will her transfers go? Probably to SF as you have pointed out will get a seat.

In the South, could an independent and SF candidate both get elected with Hayden?

I understand the merits of Independent Candidates, but is a fractured Dail filled up with independents be really what people want - as a government as opposed to your personal vote?

L1011

SF don't take many transfers anywhere off anyone - there's bye elections and council wards where they top the poll and fail to get in. They may easily get in under their own steam anyway though

Orion

North Kildare:
SF - Can see SF getting a seat in Kildare North. That said it's a long way to go to the next election and the landscape could change a lot. But who is a lottery. Lot of internal politics in SF so there could be some scrambling to be handed the ticket. If they run two they could lose out completely. But odds are they'll take Durkan's seat.
FF - 1 seat - and it won't be Naoise. He only scraped in without a quota on the last count in the locals. It'll be O'Rourke with the candidacy and probably the seat.
IND - 1 seat - Murphy
FG - Lawlor will retain his seat. If Durkan runs then possibly he might get back in but more than likely he'll hand over to his son for name recognition for the next election.
Labour - if Stagg does retire then no seat. McGinley is too old and there's no other obvious replacement.

I'll look forward to looking back at this post in 2016 and seeing how completely wrong I am

scheister

Orion wrote: »

North Kildare:
SF - Can see SF getting a seat in Kildare North. That said it's a long way to go to the next election and the landscape could change a lot. But who is a lottery. Lot of internal politics in SF so there could be some scrambling to be handed the ticket. If they run two they could lose out completely. But odds are they'll take Durkan's seat.
FF - 1 seat - and it won't be Naoise. He only scraped in without a quota on the last count in the locals. It'll be O'Rourke with the candidacy and probably the seat.
IND - 1 seat - Murphy
FG - Lawlor will retain his seat. If Durkan runs then possibly he might get back in but more than likely he'll hand over to his son for name recognition for the next election.
Labour - if Stagg does retire then no seat. McGinley is too old and there's no other obvious replacement.

I'll look forward to looking back at this post in 2016 and seeing how completely wrong I am

Few bits in here i will disagree with other i will agree with
4 seats Murphy and FF have a seat (id imagine Orourke & lawless being the FF ticket)
2 other seats are a dog fight between Labour FG and SF FG should take one but want to be careful not to make the same mistake FF did last time and split the ticket down the middle

FG Durkan will run one more time. It will want to get lawlor out of the picture before handing the seat over to the son
Lab Stagg hard to say cant see anyone running instead. What will matter is byrne is Celbridge. If byrne retires before summer 2015 and Shane Griffin takes the seat he may be able to replace Stagg but see no one else
SF. Its hard to see who they will run id be looking at Cussen in celbridge or Cronin in Maynooth as the two that look most likely.

HonalD

scheister wrote: »

FG Durkan will run one more time. It will want to get lawlor out of the picture before handing the seat over to the son.

That's an interesting point. I'd not be sure that he will retain his seat as FG will get a kicking at the election - Labour looked doomed if Stag is retiring.

Orion

scheister wrote: »

SF. Its hard to see who they will run id be looking at Cussen in celbridge or Cronin in Maynooth as the two that look most likely.

Don't think they're looking at Cussen. From what I'm told it's more likely to be between Cronin and Sorcha O'Neill for the ticket.

lordgoat

SF the most terrifying option.

FF will make massive gains as will SF. Fact is FG haven't been perfect but have been dealing with the turd that has been left for them. I have no idea who i'll vote for. All i do know is it will not be SF or FF.

Orion

Interesting analysis here:

http://adriankavanaghelections.org/2014/12/04/independents-day-again-but-disaster-for-the-government-parties-constituency-level-analysis-of-the-irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-opinion-poll-4th-december-2014/

L1011

Without knowing what candidates will make up "independents and others" across the country its very very hard to map out what they could get from 30%. Same applies here even - there are some independents with very high votes at the council elections but if all of them ran it would massively dilute their chances. There's a constituency showing 65% there and he's going for all 3 being in that category; I'd be amazed if its 3 and even 2 isn't that definite as its mostly a Boyd Barrett personal vote.

Todays poll would suggest a FF TD, a FG TD, at least one independent (Murphy) and a transfer fight for the 4th. If there's multiple (more than 3 left by then) independents and two SF running it could be very, very messy.

Orion

I'd be shocked if SF run two candidates. They don't have the core vote to elect two and would only end up splitting the vote. 1 TD is very achievable for them though.

L1011

Orion wrote: »

I'd be shocked if SF run two candidates. They don't have the core vote to elect two and would only end up splitting the vote. 1 TD is very achievable for them though.

Vote management is not yet their forte and they have multiple councillors who may all have ambitions.

Around the country they lost a fair few council seats running too many candidates and they did it in the 2009 Euro elections (although they weren't going to win, one or two, then) also.

glued

HonalD wrote: »

Thanks Diego for your comments. It looks like independent candidates may top the poll this time around. Catherine Murphy should be a near certain. Where will her transfers go? Probably to SF as you have pointed out will get a seat.

In the South, could an independent and SF candidate both get elected with Hayden?

I understand the merits of Independent Candidates, but is a fractured Dail filled up with independents be really what people want - as a government as opposed to your personal vote?

Don't see why Hayden should be re-elected. He got in on the protest vote. I know he was absolutely no help when I emailed him last year.

scheister

Just updating this post on what people are now thinking as we have a few people declared

SF are running Cllr Cronin
FF have selected Cllr Lawless
Cllr Young will be running as an indo

From looking at the polls its an indo (murphy) FF (lawless) and FG (Durkan id say) taking 3 seats. With the polls going at the moment its looking like a close battle between SF and Labour for the last seat.

What will be interesting is weather FF run a second person im hearing a women will be added to the ticket.
FG could end up in a place that FF did last time and split the ticket in a way that they lose both seats. Very hard to see FG retain the 2 seats unless they have some serious improvement in the polls.

daheff

scheister wrote: »

Lab Stagg hard to say cant see anyone running instead. What will matter is byrne is Celbridge. If byrne retires before summer 2015 and Shane Griffin takes the seat he may be able to replace Stagg but see no one else
SF.

Cant see Griffin making it. He went for the last locals and didn't do so well. then disappeared.

scheister wrote: »

Just updating this post on what people are now thinking as we have a few people declared

SF are running Cllr Cronin
FF have selected Cllr Lawless
Cllr Young will be running as an indo

From looking at the polls its an indo (murphy) FF (lawless) and FG (Durkan id say) taking 3 seats. With the polls going at the moment its looking like a close battle between SF and Labour for the last seat.

Agree with Murphy..she should be a shoe in. Probably see Young also. possibly one of lawless/O'Rourke (FF) and maybe FG/SF candidate.

scheister wrote: »

Very hard to see FG retain the 2 seats unless they have some serious improvement in the polls.

Agreed!! Don't see a labour seat either

LostinKildare

FYI Vincent Browne is taping his People's Debate for the Kildare North constituency at Killashee House Hotel on Monday night (13 April) at 7 pm. Might be interesting to go and see what happens.

daheff

LostinKildare wrote: »

FYI Vincent Browne is taping his People's Debate for the Kildare North constituency at Killashee House Hotel on Monday night (13 April) at 7 pm. Might be interesting to go and see what happens.

Maybe...if Vinny B wasn't involved.