Jeptoo test positive

MaggotBrain

There is a branch of mathematics called Game Theory that should be applied to this problem. It is already used in things like tax evasion detection and US foreign policy making. So I did a quick google and found this which might explain better what I'm talking about:
http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21581978-sportsmen-who-take-drugs-may-be-prisoners-different-game-athletes-dilemma#

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/3c0d4538-99c4-11e3-91cd-00144feab7de.html#axzz3IBbWfz00

The theory basically pits two people against each other and outlines the route to winning in certain scenarios. It is freakishly accurate at times, so much so that the IRS now know you are more than likely going to commit tax fraud before you have even done it.

Perhaps this is already in use in doping detection, I have no idea. But I believe this is the way forward alongside the traditional methods.

Sorry about the segway thought someone might find it interesting.

rom

RayCun wrote: »

Because polygraphs are not reliable

I am aware but they can be used to target testing.

RayCun

rom wrote: »

I am aware but they can be used to target testing.

But they're not reliable

Why introduce an unreliable test into the process instead of expanding the reliable tests?

rom

RayCun wrote: »

But they're not reliable

Why introduce an unreliable test into the process instead of expanding the reliable tests?

A polygraph are between 70-90 accurate. Passing countless drug tests and then failing one for EPO is hardly a better return for the reasons outlined above. More targeted testing need to be carried out. This is only a suggestion, the other suggestion above is game theory. Both need to be confirmed with an actual drug test or more tests on the person that is under suspicion. A combination of these tests could be used to give a likelihood that they are taking drugs.

RayCun

rom wrote: »

A polygraph are between 70-90 accurate.

says who?
The Truth about Lie Detectors
http://www.apa.org/monitor/julaug04/polygraph.aspx

Clearlier

rom wrote: »

A polygraph are between 70-90 accurate. Passing countless drug tests and then failing one for EPO is hardly a better return for the reasons outlined above. More targeted testing need to be carried out. This is only a suggestion, the other suggestion above is game theory. Both need to be confirmed with an actual drug test or more tests on the person that is under suspicion. A combination of these tests could be used to give a likelihood that they are taking drugs.

Testing is already targeted. A lie detector test having no standing as evidence serves mostly to warn a doper that they are under suspicion. At the moment testing is targeted by looking at peoples performances and rates of improvement. I don't see how a lie detector test could usefully add to this and I can see how it might make it harder to catch a doper. The biological passport on the other hand is a big step forward.

The biggest issue with catching dopers is actually the cost. It's one thing in a relatively wealthy county like Ireland to do lots of drug tests (and even then we don't do nearly as many as I'd like to see), it's quite another to do it in Kenya and Ethiopia where IIRC there aren't any accredited labs.

rom

Clearlier wrote: »

Testing is already targeted. A lie detector test having no standing as evidence serves mostly to warn a doper that they are under suspicion. At the moment testing is targeted by looking at peoples performances and rates of improvement. I don't see how a lie detector test could usefully add to this and I can see how it might make it harder to catch a doper. The biological passport on the other hand is a big step forward.

The biggest issue with catching dopers is actually the cost. It's one thing in a relatively wealthy county like Ireland to do lots of drug tests (and even then we don't do nearly as many as I'd like to see), it's quite another to do it in Kenya and Ethiopia where IIRC there aren't any accredited labs.

Paula Radcliffe doesn't think it's targeted enough.

PS I think we are all in agreement that more needs to be done.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW4iz8fQli4

rom

http://running.competitor.com/2014/11/news/rita-jeptoos-agent-federico-rosa_117410?utm_medium=whats-hot

Clearlier

rom wrote: »

Paula Radcliffe doesn't think it's targeted enough.

PS I think we are all in agreement that more needs to be done.

I wasn't trying to argue that testing is targeted enough just that lie detector tests isn't a good way to target testing. Sorry if that wasn't clear!

pconn062

The plot thickens, Jeptoo's estranged husband is getting involved now:

http://www.brecorder.com/sports/other-sports/203725-kenyas-jeptoo-accused-of-long-term-epo-doping.html

johnruns

Anyone know who her agent is or who is in her training group?

Netwerk Errer

johnruns wrote: »

Anyone know who her agent is or who is in her training group?

Fredrico Rosa is Jeptoo's agent. He's a pretty controversial figure in athletics. The athlete who came 2nd in the New York Marathon last week is in Jeptoo's group, Jemima Sumgong. She tested positive in 2012 but the ban was overturned after they realised the injection for bursitis was permissible.

Mathew Kipsiro was another of Rosa's athletes who also tested positive and received a ban for EPO use.

rom

http://www.athleticsmanagers.com/users/46/69/federico-rosa.html

johnruns

Cheers lots of interesting names on that list,obviously cant even begin to speculate if any of them would be doping but interesting all the same.

rom

johnruns wrote: »

Cheers lots of interesting names on that list,obviously cant even begin to speculate if any of them would be doping but interesting all the same.

I wouldn't like to speculate but some household names there especially with what her husband is claiming

johnobertie2

Chivito550 wrote: »

Make of the below what you will.

Men's 10000m World Record Progression

Ron Clarke takes 40 seconds off record
27:38.35 Lasse Virén (FIN) September 3, 1972
27:30.8 David Bedford (GBR) July 13, 1973
27:30.5 Samson Kimobwa (KEN) June 30, 1977
27:22.4 Henry Rono (KEN) June 11, 1978
27:13.81 Fernando Mamede (POR) July 2, 1984
27:08.23 Arturo Barrios (MEX) August 18, 1989

* Recombinant erythropoietin (EPO) starts to become widely used *

27:07.91 - Richard Chelimo (KEN) July 5, 1993
26:58.38 - Yobes Ondieki (KEN) July 10, 1993
26:52.23 - William Sigei (KEN) July 22, 1994
26:43.53 - Haile Gebrselassie (ETH) June 5, 1995
26:38.08 - Salah Hissou (MAR) August 23,1996
26:31.32 - Haile Gebrselassie (ETH) August 4, 1997
26:27.85 - Paul Tergat (KEN) August 22,1997
26:22.75 - Haile Gebrselassie (ETH) June 1, 1998

* EPO test put in use in 2000 *

26:20.31 - Kenenisa Bekele (ETH) June 8, 2004
26:17.53 - Kenenisa Bekele (ETH) August 26,2005

Men's 1500m World Record Progression

3:32.16 - Filbert Bayi (TAN) 1974-02-02
3:32.03 - Sebastian Coe (GBR) 1979-08-15
3:32.09 - Steve Ovett (GBR) 1980-07-15
3:31.36 - Steve Ovett (GBR) 1980-08-27
3:31.24 - Sydney Maree (USA) 1983-08-28
3:30.77 - Steve Ovett (GBR) 1983-09-04
3:29.67 - Steve Cram (GBR) 1985-07-16
3:29.46 - Saïd Aouita (MAR) 1985-08-23

* Recombinant erythropoietin (EPO) starts to become widely used *

3:28.86 - Noureddine Morceli (ALG) 1992-09-06
3:27.37 - Noureddine Morceli (ALG) 1995-07-12
3:26.00 - Hicham El Guerrouj (MAR) 1998-07-14

* EPO test put in use in 2000 *

Men's 3000m World Record Progression

7:37.6 Emiel Puttemans (BEL) 1972-09-14
7:35.2 Brendan Foster (GBR) 1974-08-03
7:32.1 Henry Rono (KEN) 1978-06-27
7:29.45 Saïd Aouita (MAR) 1989-08-20

* Recombinant erythropoietin (EPO) starts to become widely used *

7:28.96 Moses Kiptanui (KEN) 1992-08-16
7:25.11 Noureddine Morceli (ALG) 1994-08-02
7:20.67 Daniel Komen (KEN) 1996-09-01

* EPO test put in use in 2000 *

Men's 5000m World Record Progression

13:16.4 Lasse Virén (FIN) 1972-09-14
13:13.0 Emiel Puttemans (BEL) 1972-09-20
13:12.9 Dick Quax (NZL) 1977-07-05
13:08.4 Henry Rono (KEN) 1978-04-08
13:06.20 Henry Rono (KEN) 1981-09-13
13:00.41 David Moorcroft (GBR) 1982-07-07
13:00.40 Saïd Aouita (MAR) 1985-07-22
12:58.39 Saïd Aouita (MAR) 1987-07-27

* Recombinant erythropoietin (EPO) starts to become widely used *

12:56.96 Haile Gebrselassie (ETH) 1994-06-04
12:55.30 Moses Kiptanui (KEN) 1995-06-08
12:44.39 Haile Gebrselassie (ETH) 1995-08-16
12:41.86 Haile Gebrselassie (ETH) 1997-08-13
12:39.74 Daniel Komen (KEN) 1997-08-22
12:39.36 Haile Gebrselassie (ETH) 1998-06-13

* EPO test put in use in 2000 *

12:37.35 Kenenisa Bekele (ETH) 2004-05-31

Fyp

rom

johnruns wrote: »

Cheers lots of interesting names on that list,obviously cant even begin to speculate if any of them would be doping but interesting all the same.

Clearly AK believe that they have some role http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/sports/2015/01/09/ak-launches-11-policies-to-help-curb-doping/

http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/kenya/rita-jeptoo-sitienei-132798#progression looks bad with what we know now. She has a half year best from 2000 - 2012 of between 1:09.48 and 1:12.32 and then in 2013 she runs 1:06.27. Similar in marathon being a 2:25 runner and then goes to sub 2:20 in the space of 18 months. From what we know now this defines a timeline. If coach/management was involved then this timeline of huge improvements would also be replicated by other athletes from the list. Just some food for thought as I will let you draw your own conclusions.

wrstan

rom wrote: »

Clearly AK believe that they have some role http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/sports/2015/01/09/ak-launches-11-policies-to-help-curb-doping/

This is an interesting statement in that article:

Kiplagat noted stiff action will be taken against Jeptoo’s coaches Claudio Berardelli and Noah Busienei as well as her manager Federico Rosa once the Medical and Anti-doping Commissions conclude her hearing next week.

We wait and see.

wrstan

Also, courtesy of Marathon Talk, this article suggests Jeptoo will escape with only 2 years.

The quote attributed to Kipsang in that article is interesting:

“Four years is not much but it’s better than two years that wasn’t deterrent enough,” said Kipsang, the 2012 London Olympic Marathon bronze medallist and winner of the 2014 World Marathon Majors Series.

“Cheating is the biggest crime in sport and it calls for the stiffest of penalties and that is why it should also be punishable by law,”

wrstan

Strong words from Athletics Kenya on the eve of Jeptoo's hearing.

TFBubendorfer

wrstan wrote: »

Strong words from Athletics Kenya on the eve of Jeptoo's hearing.

Words are all very good (and considering the recent past with all its denials, it sure is a step into the right direction) but what we really need is action and concrete results.

”This doping issue is just as bad as AIDS”

That kind of BS isn't helpful, though.

robinph

I find it strange that the race organisers have not previously brought charges against someone testing positive on the basis that they have been defrauded. There is complications in that you are likely to be crossing international borders, but there must be someone who has tested positive for a race in the same country that they live in or are a national of. Why have they not had criminal charges brought by that race regarding fraud?

Can the World Marathon Majors not bring a case against the likes of Shobukhova the next time she gets off a plane in USA, Germany, UK or Japan?

TFBubendorfer

robinph wrote: »

I find it strange that the race organisers have not previously brought charges against someone testing positive on the basis that they have been defrauded. There is complications in that you are likely to be crossing international borders, but there must be someone who has tested positive for a race in the same country that they live in or are a national of. Why have they not had criminal charges brought by that race regarding fraud?

Can the World Marathon Majors not bring a case against the likes of Shobukhova the next time she gets off a plane in USA, Germany, UK or Japan?

It's the runner next in line that's out of pocket, not the race organisers. They could still argue that a doped athlete damages their reputation but I guess that might not be enough to win a court case.

robinph

TFBubendorfer wrote: »

It's the runner next in line that's out of pocket, not the race organisers. They could still argue that a doped athlete damages their reputation but I guess that might not be enough to win a court case.

Depends on what the contracts say in terms of them paying prize money to the second place person then I guess. If they are now listed as the winner of the race but have not been paid their winnings from the organisers, because the organiser is waiting in vain to get their money back from the cheat, then the person who crossed the line second should be bringing a case against the organiser to get their cash. Unless the race organisers have a get out clause of "if the person who crosses the line first then gets banned you all sort it out amongst yourself and it's nothing to do with us".

rom

2 years ban. http://espn.go.com/sports/endurance/story/_/id/12252671/boston-marathon-chicago-marathon-champ-rita-jeptoo-banned-2-years-doping

Netwerk Errer

rom wrote: »

2 years ban. http://espn.go.com/sports/endurance/story/_/id/12252671/boston-marathon-chicago-marathon-champ-rita-jeptoo-banned-2-years-doping

What happened to the new compulsory 4 year bans?:mad:

Ceepo

Netwerk Errer wrote: »

What happened to the new compulsory 4 year bans?:mad:

The banned her under the old rules as that was the time she was caught doping. Athletics Kenya had said previously that this would be the case if the "b" sample was positive

groovyg

Athletics Kenya have suspended Rosa Associati and Volare Sports from managing Kenyan athletes for the next 6 months until doping investigations have been investigated.
http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/251077-News-from-the-Track-and-Field-World/article/30898-Athletics-Kenya-Suspends-Two-Athlete-Firms#.VS0mJdzF_nk

http://espn.go.com/sports/endurance/story/_/id/12679686/kenya-suspends-agents-world-record-holder-dennis-kimetto-others

More doping cases had been discovered among Volare Sports' athletes, Kiplagat said Monday. He said he could not identify any of the runners while the investigations are ongoing.

Volare Sports, which is headed by Dutch agent Gerard van der Veen, represents Kimetto, former marathon world-record holder Wilson Kipsang and two-time New York Marathon winner Geoffrey Mutai, among others.

I wonder will this affect Kipsang and Kimetto running in London?

rom

From top 10 elites in London they manage at least:

Men
Wilson Kipsang
Dennis Kimetto
Stanley Biwott

Womens
Priscah Jeptoo
Jemima Sumgong

rom

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/may/02/athletics-olympic-champion-asbel-kiprop-tests-positive-drug-epo-kenyan

Shock (not)