Sinn Féin the most popular party in latest poll (mod warnings in OP)

ChicagoJoe

eigrod wrote: »

I suspect that SF doing well will hurt FF and Labour much more than it will FG.

alastair wrote: »

That's neither true, or required, to ensure SF wouldn't form a part of the next coalition.

SF on 26% are only 3% behind FG and Labour :eek:

alastair

ChicagoJoe wrote: »

SF on 26% are only 3% behind FG and Labour :eek:

And what part of that suggests SF will form part of the next coalition?

ChicagoJoe

alastair wrote: »

They wouldn't be in sole power here either - so what's their record in NI? It's as articulated by those links. They had to go cap in hand back to Westminster because they couldn't keep within budget. The record of financial mismanagement in government services in NI makes us look good!

SF received the biggest vote in the six counties at the Euros 25.5% and locals 24%. They may well be the largest party in the north after the Assembly elections next year. Not bad for a party that you in some very strange way seem to think is doing badly

alastair wrote: »

And what part of that suggests SF will form part of the next coalition?

Don't think SF want to be part of a coalition govt down here unless it's them leading a left coalition. SF will play the waiting game and let the political parties that have dominated the RoI fall on their face. Then at last we will have proper opposition politics of left and right.

alastair

ChicagoJoe wrote: »

SF received the biggest vote at the Euros 25.5% and locals 24%. They may well be the largest party in the north after the Assembly elections next year. Not bad for a party that you in some very strange way seem to think is doing badly

Their electoral success has very little to do with their record in managing the NI economy, which we can judge on outcomes.

alastair

ChicagoJoe wrote: »

Don't think SF want to be part of a coalition govt down here unless it's them leading a left coalition. SF will play the waiting game and let the political parties that have dominated the RoI fall on their face. Then at last we will have proper opposition politics of left and right.

SF are about as socialist as Bertie was! And I don't buy their aversion to being a junior in coalition, given the choices they've made in NI.

guinnessdrinker

FG and Labour secured 56% of the vote at the last general election. Today's poll shows that if FG and FF were to attempt to from a government it would be extremely difficult for them on their current combined total of 42%

I know things can change between now and the next election but if the current trend continues which seems very likely now it doesn't bode well for any of the "traditional parties".

ChicagoJoe

alastair wrote: »

SF are about as socialist as Bertie was! And I don't buy their aversion to being a junior in coalition, given the choices they've made in NI.

The Assembly is a mandatory coalition - as you know very well. Unionists like yourself must be eating your heart out today !!! The Sindo, RTE etc have two weekends wall to wall coverage of Gerry and the IRA and Mairia Cahill, and Sinn Fein top their poll. Hilarious. Looks like the people recognize a cock and bull diversion when they see it.

alastair

guinnessdrinker wrote: »

FG and Labour secured 56% of the vote at the last general election. Today's poll shows that if FG and FF were to attempt to from a government it would be extremely difficult for them on their current combined total of 42%

I know things can change between now and the next election but if the current trend continues which seems very likely now it doesn't bode well for any of the "traditional parties".

Labour were polling as the largest party in 2010 - on 32%. That didn't really work out either in 2011. Let's see what an actual general election brings.

alastair

ChicagoJoe wrote: »

The Assembly is a mandatory coalition - as you know very well. Unionists like yourself must be eating your heart out today !!! The Sindo, RTE etc have two weekends wall to wall coverage of Gerry and the IRA and Mairia Cahill, and Sinn Fein top their poll. Hilarious. Looks like the people recognize a cock and bull diversion when they see it.

SF are firm supporters of the mandatory coalition mechanism however, so it's rather disengenous to suggest that they're being coerced into a junior role in coalition. Oh, and I'm not actually a unionist, but your attempt to paint me as a bogieman is noted.

sid waddell

alastair wrote: »

SF are firm supporters of the mandatory coalition mechanism however, so it's rather disengenous to suggest that they're being coerced into a junior role in coalition. Oh, and I'm not actually a unionist, but your attempt to paint me as a bogieman is noted.

Your constant attempts to paint Sinn Fein as a bogeyman are noted.

Dan_Solo

twowheelsgood wrote: »

That attributes a fairly noble interpretation to those sampled in this poll. And what you say may be the case. (I’m not sure if it has been noted on thread but Adams personal satisfaction is down quite a bit, suggesting the Cahill story is having an impact on him rather than on SF)

Which poll are you looking at?!?!
Adams is the most popular leader of the most popular party.

Dan_Solo

alastair wrote: »

SF are about as socialist as Bertie was! And I don't buy their aversion to being a junior in coalition, given the choices they've made in NI.

They're not in a coalition in NI. They're in a power-sharing government.
Do you know anything at all about NI? You've been proven flat out wrong on everything you've spouted about the place.

Fr Tod Umptious

twowheelsgood wrote: »

That attributes a fairly noble interpretation to those sampled in this poll. And what you say may be the case. (I’m not sure if it has been noted on thread but Adams personal satisfaction is down quite a bit, suggesting the Cahill story is having an impact on him rather than on SF)

A less benign interpretation might be found by looking at the likes of Lowry and some FF types who it would seem, by accident or design to have reached a state where criticisms from outside only serve to galvanize rather than alienate their support.

I genuinely do not think any criticisms levelled at Adams, valid or not, will have an impact. He seems to have acquired Bertie’s Teflon coating of 15 years ago.

And just like Bertie the lies and deceit will in time be found out.

twowheelsgood

Dan_Solo wrote: »

Which poll are you looking at?!?!
Adams is the most popular leader of the most popular party.

Read what I posted

maccored

they have no control whatsoever on how much money they get. theres more than one party in power, and between then they decide which piece of the westminster pies goes where. they are limited by what westminister decides in the first place. I dont see how you can be justified in pinning the blame solely on SF.

alastair wrote: »

The government in NI have control over aspects of the economy and spending, and it's not been pretty.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-29562432

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ni-executive-set-to-bust-budget-over-282m-cuts-requirement-1.1949233

http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/regional/executive-s-fiscal-dishonesty-coming-home-to-roost-agnew-1-6392227

Areyouwell

Poor old Enda must have been distraught this morning. Despite his attempts to milk events which occurred 20 years ago. Sinn Fein continues to rise in the poll and it looks like people saw it for what it was, cynical opportunism.

alastair

Dan_Solo wrote: »

They're not in a coalition in NI. They're in a power-sharing government.

The NI executive is a coalition government.

Dan_Solo wrote: »

Do you know anything at all about NI? You've been proven flat out wrong on everything you've spouted about the place.

More than you do, clearly.

alastair

maccored wrote: »

they have no control whatsoever on how much money they get.

Oh, they do. And they also have control over how they choose to spend their budget. How's that been wirking out?

maccored wrote: »

Theres more than one party in power,

Just as there is, and will be in any future government, down here.

maccored wrote: »

and between then they decide which piece of the westminster pies goes where. they are limited by what westminister decides in the first place. I dont see how you can be justified in pinning the blame solely on SF.

Who's pinning the blame on them solely? I'm just commenting on their economic record in coalition.

My name is URL

Areyouwell wrote: »

Poor old Enda must have been distraught this morning. Despite his attempts to milk events which occurred 20 years ago. Sinn Fein continues to rise in the poll and it looks like people saw it for what it was, cynical opportunism.

Imagine being a FG member and watching as that idiot causes party support to implode. And yet none of them have the balls to call for a heave

People go on about the 'cult of personality' within SF.. but it's even more apparent in FG

twowheelsgood

maccored wrote: »

they have no control whatsoever on how much money they get. theres more than one party in power, and between then they decide which piece of the westminster pies goes where. they are limited by what westminister decides in the first place.

Yes it is true that the northern executive is financially constrained by the British exchequer. But this was even more the case with our government and the Troika.

And you won't find too many SF supporters who temper their criticisms of the government because of this.

Son Of A Vidic

My name is URL wrote: »

Imagine being a FG member and watching as that idiot causes party support to implode. And yet none of them have the balls to call for a heave

People go on about the 'cult of personality' within SF.. but it's even more apparent in FG

It would indeed be a great day for Ireland if the likes of FF & FG were consigned to history. Unfortunately I think that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. But one can live in hope.

twowheelsgood

My name is URL wrote: »

Imagine being a FG member and watching as that idiot causes party support to implode. And yet none of them have the balls to call for a heave

People go on about the 'cult of personality' within SF.. but it's even more apparent in FG

They will. When the time is right. And any potential FG leader who thinks the time is right with the predicament they are in at the moment might have balls, but certainly don't have brains.

alastair

Areyouwell wrote: »

Poor old Enda must have been distraught this morning. Despite his attempts to milk events which occurred 20 years ago. Sinn Fein continues to rise in the poll and it looks like people saw it for what it was, cynical opportunism.

Events that are still ongoing, today, you mean?

Timberrrrrrrr

Areyouwell wrote: »

Poor old Enda must have been distraught this morning. Despite his attempts to milk events which occurred 20 years ago. Sinn Fein continues to rise in the poll and it looks like people saw it for what it was, cynical opportunism.

So no way the Shinners will mention 1916 next year then? :rolleyes:

Dan_Solo

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

So no way the Shinners will mention 1916 next year then? :rolleyes:

Some of US are quite proud of what OUR side did in 1916, so why not?

poteen o hooley

sid waddell wrote: »

A FG/FF coalition would likely result in a situation where FG and FF then don't have enough seats to form another coalition between them at the election after next.

It would damage FG, but FF stand to lose the most from that as they are more vulnerable to Sinn Fein taking their traditional vote.

FF will do everything in their power to avoid going in as a junior partner to FG. You cannot underestimate the weight of tradition and historical force that permeates the mindsets of the membership of FF. Going into government as the junior partner to FG would be the ultimate humiliation for them.

Your assertion that Sinn Fein would find it difficult to find coalition partners is in my view naive and wishful thinking.

There is more chance of Elvis Presley flying a UFO into the Loch Ness Monster than FF going into coalition with FG on any sort of equal basis never mind junior. If you don't understand that you understand nothing and have been living in Alas in Wonderland....

Oh Wait........

Timberrrrrrrr

Dan_Solo wrote: »

Some of US are quite proud of what OUR side did in 1916, so why not?

Was replying to the poster who thinks people shouldn't "milk" events that happened 20 years ago so surely he wouldn't like to see a party "milking" something that happened 5x as long ago right?

Dan_Solo

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Was replying to the poster who thinks people shouldn't "milk" events that happened 20 years ago so surely he wouldn't like to see a party "milking" something that happened 5x as long ago right?

LOL, then you missed the point completely because these polls show nobody gives a toss what happened with the IRA 20 years ago.

maccored

alastair wrote: »

Oh, they do. And they also have control over how they choose to spend their budget. How's that been wirking out?

so the parties in the north can dictate how much cash they need from westminster .... ?

Thats not really true now, is it Alastair ... tut tut.

Who's pinning the blame on them solely? I'm just commenting on their economic record in coalition.

I dont really even need to answer this as all anyone has to do is read your posts in this and other threads.

Timberrrrrrrr

Dan_Solo wrote: »

LOL, then you missed the point completely because these polls show nobody gives a toss what happened with the IRA 20 years ago.

18 months to the next GE, plenty can happen between now and then, polls are worthless.

kabakuyu

My name is URL wrote: »

Imagine being a FG member and watching as that idiot causes party support to implode. And yet none of them have the balls to call for a heave

People go on about the 'cult of personality' within SF.. but it's even more apparent in FG

There is great anxiety and concern in FG at a grassroots level, Enda's juvenille taxation threat last evening has not gone down well with most, the leaders and hardcore party apparatchiks(and we all know who they are;))appear to be disconnected from the discontent that is simmering at the lower levels of the party.There are rumblings and genuine concerns over the direction the party is taking.
The labour party is crumbling and it appears it will be every man for himself before the next GE.

maccored

our government CHOSE to put themselves under the power of the troika. that simple and repeatedly overlooked fact argues against any similarity.

twowheelsgood wrote: »

Yes it is true that the northern executive is financially constrained by the British exchequer. But this was even more the case with our government and the Troika.

And you won't find too many SF supporters who temper their criticisms of the government because of this.

Dan_Solo

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

18 months to the next GE, plenty can happen between now and then, polls are worthless.

As I said, I'm sure Enda has plenty more disastrous new taxes and PR flops up his sleeve between now and then... fear not SF haters!

Shiraz 4.99

This is all well & good but means nothing come election time.
It'll all be about the economy stupid & SF come well down the class on that one.
Noonan will have a warchest next budget and will buy the votes they need.

twowheelsgood

maccored wrote: »

our government CHOSE to put themselves under the power of the troika. that simple and repeatedly overlooked fact argues against any similarity.

Right. And SF CHOOSE to share power with the other parties in NI. The could have CHOSEN to keep their war going, drive out the British and re-establish the Irish republic.

It would of course have been a fairly preposterous plan with close to zero chance of ending well. Pretty much as preposterous as us trying to re-build our economy without the Troika.

So in reality, no choice. And thus no substantial difference.

Karl Stein

Any chance FF and FG will merge in the future?

michael999999

Karl Stein wrote: »

Any chance FF and FG will merge in the future?

I'd imagine so.

There's always a tribunal around the corner!

Scofflaw

Civility reminder. Enough with "I know you are but what am I" playground stuff.

moderately,
Scofflaw

dave ireland

I still think its all down to water as to who gets ware in 2016, some of the topics been brought up here are just the same politics that's been around for years just with new faces.

When the first family walks into that court room for nun payment of water bill, in front of the world media I think Ireland will go deeper in the direction of SF and I guess there will be more independent guys by then as well.

I don't think even some SF supports here realized how serious people view this charge.

I most definitely agree with some post here that suggest that Ireland needs some new political party's.

Rightwing

Shiraz 4.99 wrote: »

This is all well & good but means nothing come election time.
It'll all be about the economy stupid & SF come well down the class on that one.
Noonan will have a warchest next budget and will buy the votes they need.

I'm not so sure on both counts. World economy is far from perfect, and SF realise the PS needs reform. No other party is willing to confront that.

alastair

maccored wrote: »

so the parties in the north can dictate how much cash they need from westminster .... ?

Thats not really true now, is it Alastair ... tut tut..

It is actually. The block grant from Westminster is not the only source of revenue for the NI Executive - they also have the Regional Rates, and borrowing under the Reinvestment and Reform Initiative. They still had to go back, cap in hand to Westminster because they couldn't balance their budget. Partially, of course, because they again, postponed applying water charges, for their water infrastructure, which is, if anything, in worse shape than our own.

maccored wrote: »

I dont really even need to answer this as all anyone has to do is read your posts in this and other threads.

What, you're denying that SF are a govt partner in this financial mismanagement?

alastair

maccored wrote: »

our government CHOSE to put themselves under the power of the troika. that simple and repeatedly overlooked fact argues against any similarity.

That may be a simple statement, but it's far from factual.

Where did you imagine they were going if not the troika?

alastair

dave ireland wrote: »

When the first family walks into that court room for nun payment of water bill, in front of the world media I think Ireland will go deeper in the direction of SF and I guess there will be more independent guys by then as well.

The 'world's media' would be quite bemused at the notion of someone refusing to pay their water charge bill being something noteworthy, let alone newsworthy.

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

dave ireland

alastair wrote: »

The 'world's media' would be quite bemused at the notion of someone refusing to pay their water charge bill being something noteworthy, let alone newsworthy.

I'm not so sure , if the Irish government gets away with charging for water twice what's to stop main land Europe from trying it. I don't think the French would be happy been told there is a water tax now, even though you have already been paying for it privately for years...

mikom

alastair wrote: »

The 'world's media' would be quite bemused at the notion of someone refusing to pay their water charge bill being something noteworthy, let alone newsworthy.

Screw the "media".
Where will they be when the bills come in?

dave ireland

Roll on 2016, I can now see light at the end of the tunnel and its either a new style of politics or a freight train.... @ or both ~?

maccored

regardless of your very inaccurate comparisons and idea of choosing, the two things are still completely different. dont let that put you off though. you keep on keeping on with the inaccurate comparisons.

twowheelsgood wrote: »

Right. And SF CHOOSE to share power with the other parties in NI. The could have CHOSEN to keep their war going, drive out the British and re-establish the Irish republic.

It would of course have been a fairly preposterous plan with close to zero chance of ending well. Pretty much as preposterous as us trying to re-build our economy without the Troika.

So in reality, no choice. And thus no substantial difference.

K-9

Yarf Yarf wrote: »

As sorry as I feel for Maria Cahill, the attempts to politicize her case and use her as a political pawn were painfully transparent and I'm glad it is seemingly backfiring. I think most people are just sick of hearing the same ****e about cases that happened years and years ago and, frankly, don't really have any bearing on the day to day lives of people in the Republic today. I feel for Maria Cahill, but this whole circus has been a feeble attempt at diverting attention away from relevant issues of the here and now and it should be exposed for what it is.

Isn't calling her a political pawn not playing politics with her?

twowheelsgood

maccored wrote: »

regardless of your very inaccurate comparisons and idea of choosing, the two things are still completely different. dont let that put you off though. you keep on keeping on with the inaccurate comparisons.

I find when people say that two things are "completely different" what they mean is that they want them to be completely different but they cannot make the argument.

The scenarios certainly are different but what they both have in common, a lack of choice. Republicans had no real choice other than GFA 15 years ago and the Irish state had no real choice but to seek assistance from the Troika 5 years ago.

There are at least some dissidents who would dispute the former. Can you find a single credible voice who suggested there was an alternative to the Troika?