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if the government falls, then what??
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Dannyboy83 wrote: »Alternative:
1. Dust off the Five Point Plan & Key Part: Actually start implementing it
2. Prepare to be unpopular with some of the electorate like any statesman should be, (and re-elected by those of us who actually voted for the FPP)
3.??????????
4. PROFIT!!!!
But they are unpopular, but you won't vote for them
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But they are unpopular, but you won't vote for them
Correct - they're unpopular - with everyone.
In politics you should be popular who those who vote in favour of your principles, and unpopular with those who are opposed to your principles.
If you're popular with everyone, then you've probably found oil.
If you're popular with no-one, then you have compromised so much on your principles, that nobody believes you have any.
I can respect someone who has principles which differ from mine, but I don't vote for them.
I can't respect someone who doesn't have any principles & I definitely don't vote for them.
Here are the First Pref results from 2011|Fine Gael| 801,628 | 36.1 |76|
Labour Party 431,796 19.4 37
Fianna Fáil 387,358 17.4 20
Non-Party 279,459 12.6 15
Sinn Féin 220,661 9.9 14
Socialist Party 26,770 1.2 2
People Before Profit Alliance 21,551 1.0 2
Green Party-Comhaontas Glas 41,039 1.8 0
Others 10,097 0.4 0
If Fine Gael implement the reform policies they were elected to implement, they will be unpopular with those who support the Status Quo.
If they continue to try to placate everybody, they'll (continue) be popular with nobody, including those of us (36%) with whom they were popular in 2011.
Just read the following in the context of the most recent budget sideshowWE will radically overhaul the way Irish politics and government work. The failures of the political system over the past decade were a key contributor to the financial crisis and the system must now learn those lessons urgently. Government is too centralised and unaccountable.” — Programme for Government 2011.
How nauseating.http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/enda-talked-the-talk-but-hasnt-delivered-on-political-reform-245014.html
Shortly after coming into office, the Government promised to “end cronyism” with a new system of appointments to state boards which would be publicly advertised and require potential appointees to be questioned by Oireachtas committees.
But just a fifth of the 1,043 appointments made since Mar 2011 have come through the publicly advertised process.Fine Gael had pledged to merge or abolish 145 quangos.
only 45 quangos have been abolished or are due to be abolished while another 33 new bodies have been created since the Fine Gael/Labour Coalition entered office.
Anyway, I'm flogging a dead horse here.
Based on their broken promises, I won't blow my nose with their next manifesto unless they agree to go into coalition with FF (since FF's only principle is to be in power)
That's 1 vehicle for change in Irish political society.
The other is to put Sinn Fein in. Creative destruction/shock to the system/whatever it takes to escape the recursive black hole of Irish politics.
[ Of course, in the time they have left before the next GE, they could make a serious effort at implementing the reform aspect of the Five Point Plan]
Check out Eoghan Murphy's article0 -
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A reform agenda would be a big deal, if it was the absence of a reform agenda that screwed up the economy.
"A reform agenda" - are you implying one doesn't exist or something?
Don't you mean 'The reform agenda?
It was absence of regulation that screwed the economy (not just bank regulation).
It was absence of political integrity/regulation/reform which precipitated an absence of regulation.
Why do you think we want to see that reform agenda being implemented? smhThis government will be largely judged on how it handled the economic meltdown. So far it has done a pretty impressive job. You may not think having the highest rate of growth in Europe is any thing to write home about but your opinion is rather less important than those of the financiers, industrialists and others who bring investment, growth and jobs here.
And I am most grateful to Europe that they did
a) rescue us
b) regulate our politicians to ensure that recovery had a chance
Thank our lucky stars we could rely on 'the kindness of strangers' in Europe.
As for the fastest growing economy, I've already explained to you that's a function of severe the crash was.Output from peak to trough fell by 21% in nominal terms and unemployment rose from 5% to 15%. As house prices plummeted by 47%, the banks collapsed and had to be rescued, which pushed the debt-to-GDP ratio to 123%. The country was forced to enter an EU bail-out programme from which it has only just emerged.
We're the flavour of the month. Marvellous.
Last year it was Latvia, next year Albania.
I'm as pleased as anyone about our economic recovery, but I'll take "slow and steady" any day over "bust and boom".Rising house prices help fill the State's coffers by €1.5bnThere is only so many hours in the day and only so much that can be done by any group of people. I for one am happy that priority was given to fixing the economy.
But the economy isn't fixed
and won't be until the political system that oversees it is.http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028394.shtml
On the expenditure side, gross current expenditure was €533m (+1.2%) above the expected level while capital expenditure was €78m (+3.6%) above target.
Savings of €107m on voted capital expenditure were offset:rolleyes: by higher non-voted spending, largely the €185m capital contribution to Irish Water. Current spending overruns were again concentrated in Health, which is now €450m (+4.2%) ahead of target."
And the troika are barely gone & FG have already had a crack at one giveaway budget.So fret and bleat on all you want about the Five Point Plan and broken promises.
As for fretting and bleating - you could at least make an effort to refute some of my points, a bit of political analysis wouldn't go astray - this place used to have a high calibre of debate.
If this is the bulwark of intellectual resistance against Sinn Fein, then they've already won.0 -
Dannyboy83 wrote: »"A reform agenda" - are you implying one doesn't exist or something?
Don't you mean 'The reform agenda?
It was absence of regulation that screwed the economy (not just bank regulation).
It was absence of political integrity/regulation/reform which precipitated an absence of regulation.
Why do you think we want to see that reform agenda being implemented? smh
And I am most grateful to Europe that they did
a) rescue us
b) regulate our politicians to ensure that recovery had a chance
Thank our lucky stars we could rely on 'the kindness of strangers' in Europe.
As for the fastest growing economy, I've already explained to you that's a function of severe the crash was.
We're the flavour of the month. Marvellous.
Last year it was Latvia, next year Albania.
I'm as pleased as anyone about our economic recovery, but I'll take "slow and steady" any day over "bust and boom".
But the economy isn't fixed
and won't be until the political system that oversees it is.
And the troika are barely gone & FG have already had a crack at one giveaway budget.
As for fretting and bleating - you could at least make an effort to refute some of my points, a bit of political analysis wouldn't go astray - this place used to have a high calibre of debate.
If this is the bulwark of intellectual resistance against Sinn Fein, then they've already won.
A comment like:
"We're the flavour of the month. Marvellous. Last year it was Latvia, next year Albania".
Tells me all I need to know about the quality of your "political analysis" and your grasp of the subject.0 -
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More than good enough.
But if you want to elaborate on your equating Ireland's status with those of Latvia and Albania, I'll be all ears.
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/10/16102014-irelands-real-recovery-metrics.html
The rate of improvement is measured by the slope of the line. By this measure, Ireland in 2014 is indeed improving faster than anyone else, except the recovery is close to or on par with Latvia, Slovakia and Malta. But here's a kicker: 2014 rate of improvement in Ireland is similar to the rates of improvement attained in the past during this crisis by:
Latvia in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014
Finland in 2009 and 2010
Malta in 2010, 2013 and 2014
Slovakia in 2009, 2010 and 2014
Germany in 2010 and 2011
Austria in 2011
So our 'unique today' is not as unique as we would like it to be, both today and historically over the crisis period.
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21631127-ireland-good-news-story-not-quite-way-eu-would-emerald-shines-again
Mired in deflation and despair, the EU desperately needs a good news story. And it appears to have found one in the rainy island off its north-west shore. “Congratulations, Ireland!” exclaimed Jyrki Katainen, the new European commissioner for growth and jobs, as he unveiled another miserable set of forecasts for the European economy this week.
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Keen to encourage the Irish example, the fiscal-consolidation crowd have taken to laying on the flattery. In Dublin recently Wolfgang Schäuble, the stern German finance minister, said that he was “jealous” of Ireland’s performance.http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/germany-urges-troika-name-and-shame-methods-1.1985360
A year after Ireland waved goodbye to the troika, Germany has suggested the European Commission should adopt troika methods to name and shame EU governments into meeting their reform obligations.
In a joint paper, German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble and economics minister Sigmar Gabriel suggest the EU-International Monetary Fund troika system – regular visits to capitals to maintain reform pressure, in private meetings and via the media – would be an effective way of bringing around recalcitrant reformers.http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21631127-ireland-good-news-story-not-quite-way-eu-would-emerald-shines-again
Ireland’s crash was so destructive, and so obviously the result of self-inflicted wounds, that the “troika” (the European Central Bank, European Commission and IMF) that supervised its bail-out programme met little resistance—unlike in Greece.
Ministers acknowledge that the outsiders provided them with a useful disciplinary framework.
They also presented the Fine Gael-led government, which took office three months after the bail-out, with a clear mission: to exit the programme.
Indeed, the government has floundered a little since the troika went home; one minister says it might have made sense to seek a fresh electoral mandate at that point.
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The need for a poster child is understandable. But Ireland’s economic bounce has more to do with the relative success of the United States and Britain—its biggest export markets—and the structural features of its economy than with the austerity it was obliged to impose. As a small, globalised country with a flexible labour market, a skilled workforce and low taxes, all features that predate the bail-out, Ireland was well placed to respond to higher demand abroad. Pay packets were slashed during the bail-out years, improving competitiveness.
There are signs of life on the domestic front, but Ireland’s vast private-debt overhang of over 300% of GDP will crimp demand for a while yet.http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/latvia-collapsed-like-ireland-but-now-its-recovering-26772773.html
It is a small peripheral European country. Three years ago, one of its major banks failed. It ended up under the control of the IMF, but now has one of the strongest growing economies in Europe after sweeping cuts to its public sector.
No, of course it is not Ireland. It's Latvia.
ts population of less than two-and-a-half million has endured the harshest recessions in history, with the economy declining by one quarter and unemployment peaking at 22 per cent.
However, as a result of some fierce austerity measures and an opening up of its public service, as dictated by the IMF, Latvia in 2011 is growing in excess of four per cent, with some saying growth could top five per cent this year.
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According to an excellent study by Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe, which compares Ireland's economy to other similar-sized European and Scandinavian countries, living standards in Latvia are well below those of Ireland and the EU average.
Despite the strong growth this year, unemployment remains high at 18 per cent but is falling.
After its economy shrinking by 18 per cent in 2009 alone, last year Latvia recovered amazingly and all but stopped the decline.
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According to his study, Ireland and the New National Question, Mr Donohoe concludes that Ireland performs poorly across a whole host of areas compared to other similar sized countries.
"The magnitude of Irish under-performance versus peer states is simply shocking," he writes.
In comparison to other countries of similar size like Denmark and Finland, in 2010 in areas like unemployment, budget deficit/surplus and debt levels, Ireland was by far the worst performer. Our unemployment rate was almost double all others and our deficit was over 10 times than the both countries.http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028111.shtml
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1027377.shtml
Irish Economy: The number of job numbers fell in the first half of 2014 by 8,000 from 1.910m in December 2013 to 1.902m in June 2014 according to the Central Statistics Office today -- having for long sailed against the winds of conventional wisdom, we can say that Finfacts has been proved right about jobs data that had exaggerated jobs data in the second half of 2013. The overall workforce numbers also contracted.
There is a simple way of looking at the jobs situation in 2013 by focusing on the big sectors of the economy: IDA Ireland and Enterprise Ireland have said that their client companies added 12,000 net jobs in the year. Coupled with tourist activity related jobs, that amounts to 29,000. Public sector employment fell while 27,000 additional farmers/farm workers in 2013 is fairytale economics.
Simply, the volatility in farm employment during the crisis is a fiction and the apparent jump in 2013 may be real for Enda Kenny, taoiseach, but it's a fantasy as is the goal of achieving full-employment by 2020 without a credible strategy.
As for income tax, each year the numbers at work turned out to be higher than originally forecast.
With the Eurozone in recession and the good news on the UK economy coming in the second half of the year, coupled with SMEs struggling to get bank loans, the backdrop had not significantly changed.
The CSO has reported that both Irish industrial production and services fell in 2013.
Also in 2013, the number of Irish home mortgages issued in 2013 fell to a 40-year low and most of the 86,000 unemployed who were in publicly funded activation programmes such as JobBridge, were classified as being employed -- that is equivalent to adding 4% to the unemployment rate giving a real world total of 15.9%.
Nevertheless, the economy is at last recovering but achieving full-employment by 2020 cannot be achieved by political spin.http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-economic-recovery-is-most-visible-in-the-labour-market-1.1891630
The economic recovery that is gathering momentum in Ireland is most visible in the labour market. Gains in employment averaged about 4,000 per month over the past year, corresponding to one of the fastest rates of job creation in Europe. It is worth recalling that the economy lost nearly 8,000 full-time jobs per week in early 2009, as the construction and other property-related sectors collapsed. At the current pace of growth, employment is expected to approach the 2 million mark by the end of next year. The unemployment rate, though still at elevated levels, has fallen more than 1½ percentage points over the past year to 11.6 per cent in June and is down about 3 percentage points from its peak in 2012.
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The recovery is being driven by three main factors.
First, the performance of the Irish economy over the past decade was dominated by the boom and bust in the property market. Other sectors of the economy, where Ireland has long-established real strengths at a global level, were less visible in the economic statistics.
Growth in these sectors has been supported by improvements in Ireland’s international cost competitiveness and by revivals in economic growth in the UK and US. The strengthening of sterling against the euro on foreign exchange markets over the past year has also boosted our exports to Britain.
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the Government should resist the temptation to try to stimulate consumer spending by bringing the programme of fiscal adjustment to a premature end in this October’s budget. It is clear that the political system will not be able to tolerate the full €2 billion in adjustments previously pencilled in. A political crisis followed by a general election in the next few months is not in this country’s economic interest. But the Government should strive to get as much of the remaining adjustment over with as quickly as possible so that households can be confident that their disposable income is finally on a sustained upward trajectory.
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The ECB’s bond-buying programme introduced in September 2012 deserves most of the credit for ending the panic that had debilitated European debt markets during much of the crisis. The resulting substantial improvement in investor confidence in the peripheral euro-area economies was a pre-condition for a return to economic growth.
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Although the Irish economy continues to improve, the recovery is far from complete. Unemployment is falling at far too slow a pace. Household and small business debt levels remain high. Absent large shocks from abroad, however, a return to some semblance of economic normality, where households can reasonably expect incomes to rise each year, looks to be just around the corner.http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028025.shtml
On a seasonally adjusted basis the Live Register total recorded a monthly decrease of 3,400 in July 2014, reducing the seasonally adjusted total to 382,800. In unadjusted terms there were 404,515 people signing on the Live Register in July 2014. This represents an annual fall of 37,461 (-8.5%). Adding unemployed in activation schemes which fell to 65,000 reflecting a normal summer pattern, the total numbers in receipt of public payments was 469,000 - - 22% of the workforce.
In the year to July, the number of claimants on the Live Register for over a year fell 8,901 (-4.5%). Nonetheless, 47% of those on the Live Register are long-term claimants, while the decline in short-term claimants over the year was much sharper at 28,560 (-11.7%). As we pointed out at the time of the last Live Register release, many of those long-term unemployed have been on the Register for over three years, accounting for a quarter of total claimants in H1. While many are now finding work as the economy recovers, a significant cohort of unemployed has struggled to find re-employment and is now at risk of structural unemployment.
Nevertheless, the July numbers point to a solid start to the third quarter. Employment growth had surprisingly slowed to 2.3% year-on-year in Q1, but recent Live Register releases suggested that the rate of job creation picked up again in Q2, with that momentum now being maintained into the second half of the year."0 -
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My you have been busy. Just a pity you couldn't find anything to cog about Albania.
That's next year, remember?
The government and the International Monetary Fund earlier this year forecasted GDP growth of 2.1 per cent for 2014, but the latest data suggests that overall growth for this year might be much lower than expected.
Lower economic growth has not caused major problems for government finances, which have performed well this year, but the government has faced difficulties in reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund for the next year's fiscal plan.
Under a three year agreement between Albania and the IMF, Tirana has to cut its overall public debt by an equivalent of three per cent of GDP per year starting from 2016. However, according to experts, the debt reduction could only be achieved if economic growth returns to three or more per cent per year.
:rolleyes:I said earlier that your opinion was less important than those of the financiers, industrialists and others who actually put their money on the table to back them. That is also true of the opinions of analysts, journalists and pundits like dear Constantin.
You've said plenty - and as usual - substantiated absolutely nothing.
It's called the CRT:http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/technology/corporation-tax-could-be-the-never-ending-war-for-ireland-1.1970569
A report in Le Monde this week suggested that, in light of the budget move, Google is weighing up shuttering its operations in Bermuda, where money that is catapulted out of Ireland using the Double Irish technique remains untaxed.Apple has told investors that its operating results may be "adversely affected" by changes that may result from a European Commission probe into its tax affairs in Ireland.
Now, I want to hear why Constantin is
a) wrong - (and substantiate with facts, not more ill informed opinion)
b) not worthy of being listened to?The opinions that MATTER are those of agencies like Fitch who have moved Ireland from near junk status to A-.
Oh Sweet Jesus, you honestly haven't an iota, have you?
You've learned nothing...The US Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission called them “key enablers” of the financial crisis and “cogs in the wheel of financial destruction.” If it weren’t for lack of funding, European leaders such as Jean-Claude Juncker would have replaced them with an institutional equivalent.Or of the bond markets that have dropped rates from 14% to under 2% -lower than the US or UK.
Whooooooosh!!
This is the sound of you reading about ECB monetary policy and it's effect on
Ireland's bond yields.:D
The sheer irony of your disregard for Constantin is delicious!:pOr even more importantly of the hard nosed business organisations that continue to pour investment into the country in both new companies and expansions.
Prove it.
So google, cut and paste to your hearts content. Some of us have work to do in the real world.
ROFL!
It's called 'substantiating your opinion'
It's actually a requirement of the politics forum, you know ?
And yet again, I'm inviting you to substantiate yours....0 -
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