Selling House

RiseNshine

Prices have risen in Dublin for the 16th consecutive month. Facts and renouned economists who are regular pundits on ireland media say prices will continue to rise albeit at a much more modest rate than we saw in early 2014

Saipanne

Its funny how that "renting is dead money" nonsense is slowly creeping back. Did we not learn anything?

NinjaTruncs

Sounds like 2007 again doesn't it...

MarkAnthony

RiseNshine wrote: »

Prices have risen in Dublin for the 16th consecutive month. Facts and renouned economists who are regular pundits on ireland media say prices will continue to rise albeit at a much more modest rate than we saw in early 2014

What are you not getting about that's the entire point of the new regulations?

MarkAnthony

Saipanne wrote: »

Its funny how that "renting is dead money" nonsense is slowly creeping back. Did we not learn anything?

It is - ideally most people would be in a position to buy their own homes, with only the transient (and presumably according remunerated) work force renting high quality assets from professional landlords.

What is the difference between paying €900 a month on rent or €800 on a mortgage if portability isn't key? Even if it was adopting a similar approach to the Scots would prevent gazumping and make moving a hell of a lot easier.

Sorry bit of a derailment there.

RiseNshine

Demographics. People need housing. Currently there is serious lack of supply. Prices are dictated by supply and demand. The banks aren't lending so this is having negative impact on market. People like me will NOT sell or pull out if the market if prices are artificially impacted or stunted by whomever

MarkAnthony

To be honest your pig headed refusal to listen anyone else on this matter only puts you in the same position - no one has a clue - the Irish property market has been, for many years, a complete mess.

quadrifoglio verde

Saipanne wrote: »

well if people find it harder to borrow money then you would expect demand to fall

Oh agreed, thats why I think prices may fall, but I've seen madder things happen when it comes to property in this country (House in rathfarnham asking similar for a similar house in donnybrook:eek:) No one knows what the market may do.

Op do you have a link to your ad? There might be a reason why you're not getting asking. Also remember asking price is the asking price, not the selling price

MarkAnthony

Not sure the OP giving their address and pics of their house is a good idea if it's then backed up by discussion here - just my 2 cents.

MaceFace

RiseNshine wrote: »

Demographics. People need housing. Currently there is serious lack of supply. Prices are dictated by supply and demand. The banks aren't lending so this is having negative impact on market. People like me will NOT sell or pull out if the market if prices are artificially impacted or stunted by whomever

You're coming out with all these reasons why house prices will continue to rise but lamenting that no one is offering what you consider a fair price for your own home.
Maybe your valuation is what's wrong rather than the rest of the world.
Your house is only worth what someone's willing to pay...

zl1whqvjs75cdy

On the above point that Irish main stream economists predict house rises for next year, they don't exactly have a stellar record on predictions of the Irish housing market. Also you may assume anyone working for the Irish independent is peddling Denis o briens line, which is effect the government line. They have a vested interest in encouraging house price increases. Sorry to derail a bit.

Saipanne

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

On the above point that Irish main stream economists predict house rises for next year, they don't exactly have a stellar record on predictions of the Irish housing market. Also you may assume anyone working for the Irish independent is peddling Denis o briens line, which is effect the government line. They have a vested interest in encouraging house price increases. Sorry to derail a bit.

When these new CBI rules come on stream, demand will fall as a consequence. This will absolutely have an effect on house prices. Its very difficult to predict how much, but the CBI want to stop the next bubble, so if you believe them it should put a halt on any significant increases next year.

Expect rents to rise, though!

hfallada

OP read the section on real estate agents in freakeconomics. It talks about how estate act in their own interest in selling a house or apartment. They will often tell a potential buyer to bid at the lowest level you will sell for( for a quick sell). They also keep a house on the market for a shorter period than if they sell it themselves. As its down to economics. If they have a 1% commission fee and if they hold out for an extra 50k. They will only get 500 themselves. It isnt worth holding out for, considering they will have to keep showing and answering calls,emails etc. about it. Its a lot of work for a small sum of money.

Have you picked the right estate agent for your house? I know when my parents got a valuations for the family home in 2008, they got a valuation of 575k for it. When only 18 months previous houses in the exact condition sold for over twice the price. Even at the lowest part of the property crash the house wasnt only worth 575k. The estate agent clearly was going to suggest my parents sell the house for 575k.

OP maybe consider getting a new estate agent, that is more suited to your house. If you house is period and a high value home. Use an agent that sells high value homes. But if your house is middle of road, use a middle of the road agent. Because a high value agent is not to really care about a middle of the road house, if he to work as hard on it, as a high value house for only half the commission.

RiseNshine

Sorry, but there isn't a bubble. A bubble is caused by massive availability of cheap credit. That isn't case here. It's a supply issue unless I am missing something?

Saipanne

RiseNshine wrote: »

Sorry, but there isn't a bubble. A bubble is caused by massive availability of cheap credit. That isn't case here. It's a supply issue unless I am missing something?

The. Next. Bubble.

kencoo

D6/d6w is a nice area to live. We looked at a few houses in that area and at the moment there is a bit of choice. Some of the houses need alot of work which needs to be considered if buying.No two houses are alike so its not always as straight forward.
As a buyer I get a feel for what is worth the asking price. Some sellers are miles off the mark (personal opinion). The "ready to go" houses seem to be more in demand this time of year.

Personally i would check the Property Price register and see really what they are making. Id also have look at what others sellers are asking and try to compare.
It might also be worth asking an impartial friend what they think of your property. They may see reasons that might put some buyers off- you'd be surprised.

At the weekend an auctioneer mentioned that alot of houses came on the market in September which would also have an affect.

Chev2010

RiseNshine wrote: »

Sorry, but there isn't a bubble. A bubble is caused by massive availability of cheap credit. That isn't case here. It's a supply issue unless I am missing something?

Define a bubble? Why does it need to be driven solely by cheap credit? If there's an increase in prices of 25% then a dip of 25% all without cheap credit, was it a bubble? In my mind it would have been a bubble.

Remember in 2006-7 renowned economists said there wasn't a bubble. The government in charge of running the country said there would be a "soft landing" - then the bubble burst and prices dropped over 50%, they all got it wrong, how can you be so sure they're all right this time?

I personally feel a 25% increase in prices in Dublin that's driven by a lack of supply, incentivised cash buyers and investor CGT exemptions is not sustainable once the cash leaves the market and supply increases.

Fact is, nobody knows what will happen next year, but the market seems to have already cooled a little. Add the new mortgage limits in 2015 and you have to assume most serious cash investors will have been buying this year to ensure they get the CGT exemptions, who is left to push up prices 10+% next year? FTBs will likely need a 20% deposit, so a lot are also now out of the market, or back to more modest 1/2 bed apartments so demand for houses will decrease, bidding wars take multiple bidders and they may not be around next year.

I've been actively bidding on houses for the last year and noticed a change from houses going for 50+k over asking to just making asking prices or a little over, also notice some that aren't reaching the asking.

At this point I've stopped bidding as I think prices will either level out or decline next year.

trobbin

Can't really help the op, but I will say, if you're not happy with the amount being offered and you don't really need to move, just don't sell. But remember, don't be reading the predictions of optimistic economists and thus, valuing your home in 2014 at a predicted 2015 price.

As others said, nobody is certain about future prices, but if I look at the news and read quotes from people or institutes with a vested interest in a booming property market, I would believe that prices where going to increase and maybe never stop increasing. And that frightens the hell out of me. But if I look at the situation logically and consider everything I've learned throughout the boom and bust, well I'm afraid it won't be going up for sellers looking for huge sums.

Figures being released in the news are very misleading. While they say the country is seeing growth and unemployment is down dramatically, it's hardly fixed any problem. Think about it. Most people earn less, far less than they did in the boom. Take the smaller wage that many have, then think about the new bills they have. Gas and electric have risen almost 50% since boom prices, insurance is higher and rising. Property tax. Mortgage interest relief nowhere near what it was. Interest rates are higher (especially that there's no trackers available). Speculators with no cash (wannabe landlords trying to get rich with a ton of mortgages) are completely gone. Water charges to come in. Bin prices are predicted to rise next year. Education prices are increasing. Lately there has been a big hike in food prices. Next year people will be stretched worse than before.

As for unemployment being down, according to our fabulous government. As I said certain sectors. Fact is, they've been massaging the figures. Many that where unemployed have left the country, still happens but you won't see it on the news. Thousands of the people off the unemployed list are currently in back to education, basically still unemployed, or at least still receiving the benefit. Others are on back to enterprise, again still receiving the benefit. Yet both groups are no longer unemployed according to our government. The massive growths that they've been talking about hasn't seen a massive rise in revenue intake, with it still way to low to run the country.

There's lots of factors that need to be taken into account. Some people in Ireland thinks everything revolves around house prices, in fact house prices revolve around other factors. Not many people don't realise that many cash buyers which started the surge we seen late 2013 early 2014 where actually foreign investors. Mainly American hedge funds buying up apartment blocks, as a security against a dollar collapse. They are hedging there bets in different currencies. As money follows money, many Irish cash buyers entered the market, but for different reasons. That's why rents have risen. Now it's not sustainable for cash buyers to continue to buy at the current prices, as rents won't give them there desired return on investment.

The only factor that is remotely positive for sellers, is that there's a shortage of houses. But people will only stretch themselves so far. With new regulators from Europe now involved, we won't see a continued surge. There will also be many more houses built in the coming years. Interest rates are certainly going to rise, and maybe as early as next year.

I think it's more likely that property will fall than rise.

BookBook

To me things are definitely a lot quieter in Dublin over the last few weeks. Not sure if it is the time of year or if prices have gone too high.

For the first time in 18 months I have estate agents ringing me with a list of properties for sale. Another EA told me things are very quiet lately. I've seen a few price drops but i have also seen some properties being snapped up.

I have heard that there maybe panic over the CGT for investors and the 20% deposit for buyers but I personally haven't seen that yet.

TheDriver

This thread and the OP have given me the best laughs in a long time, welcome back 2005! I am seeing things around being "snapped" up at moment because there is panic with people who have 10% saved and need to use their approval. This will fall flat in January when the 20% WILL come in and activity plummets. Vendors need to realise that a house isn't guaranteed to sell...........

trobbin

BookBook wrote: »

To me things are definitely a lot quieter in Dublin over the last few weeks. Not sure if it is the time of year or if prices have gone too high.

For the first time in 18 months I have estate agents ringing me with a list of properties for sale. Another EA told me things are very quiet lately. I've seen a few price drops but i have also seen some properties being snapped up.

I have heard that there maybe panic over the CGT for investors and the 20% deposit for buyers but I personally haven't seen that yet.

Interesting that you mention panick over CGT. There was actually no panick until the government tried their pressure tactics. They're saying buy before January and if you sell your house in 7 years you won't have to pay any CGT. What does that tell you?

It tells me that there won't be any CGT to pay, not because of the governments very generous offer, but because property won't have risen. In fact it will fall.

People are getting very stupid regarding property prices if you ask me. There not thinking outside the box, they haven't learned a thing. I remember Eddie Hobbs saying people should borrow as much as they can and invest in property, because it's only going one way. That was in 2006. We all know what Bertie Ahern said, that "anyone who thinks the property market will collapse should kill themselves" and yes, he really did say that.

When these economists, politicians and banks are telling the average Joe that property is going up, it's the opposite. It's going to be worse than ever.

Why are they pushing everyone to buy property, all of a sudden? Why oh why have AIB marginally cut their variable rate, after all the years of Austerity? The banks are gonna turn the screw, and they where always going to. Banks have been held back throughout this downturn and yet rates have remained. Think of it this way, banks are unable to up rates to mop up all the disposable income that's available, because of government and large investor pressure. Why? So the government can introduce all of it's austerity measures and the people will just accept. If interest rates have hit the people first, there would've been a revolt a long time ago. But people just accepted the austerity measures. We are however, close to the end. People are starting to be stretched that bit to far (water charges) you can see that they can't take anymore. Once all the austerity measures are in place. The interest rates will rise. They're currently at an all time low. Anyone who thinks they're staying that low are terrible mistaking.

Every time I read news or watch news they're talking up property. People are being urged to buy, made to feel like they'll never get a home if not now. I remember the last time they where talking like that, and I remember what happened.

I would bet on a downturn in the next two years, and once it starts falling and rates start rising, it will plummet. Astonished that some haven't learned.

Sorry, I seem to have rambled on a bit:)

tenifan

Op, you seem to be an authority on bubbles, deposits, interest rates and exactly what the market is going to do next year.. so you should know a little about supply and demand. i.e. if you're asking too much, no one's going to buy it.

Now, another way of looking at things is Christmas is coming. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2492559/Bag-property-bargain-Christmas.html Who knows why, but house prices are deflated as people who want to sell drop their prices, while buyers are probably waiting until they have xmas over with.

It might be true that some people are scrambling to get mortgage approval before Christmas, but I don't think it heated up the market as some people expected.

So you could wait until next year when you believe house prices will rise (and they probably will). Or you could sell now for less.. i.e. market rate. Forget about the speculative "house prices may be worth x in y months time" rate unless you're an investor and don't mind holding out.

Sala

RiseNshine wrote: »

I am considering this as a last resort. I am also considering taking house off the market and buyers will miss an opportunity to buy house at good price because if I go to market next year houses will have increased going by all the pundits. Don't need this stress approaching Xmas. Just bargain hunters out there looking for someone desperate to sell house cheap. Don't think that's gonna happen!

Buyers obviously don't agree that it's a good house at a good price. If they did, it would sell.

If you are so confident prices will go up you should sit it out. I think you could be badly mistaken though, so if you really need to sell you'll have to drop the price.

groovyg

RiseNshine wrote: »

Central bank can only introduce guidelines. They are not allowed to direct banks in the same way banks don't have to pass on rate reductions when ECB reduces rates. The banks will find a way around lending criteria. At the end if the day that's how banks make revenue. Lending. 2015 will see property prices rise by another 10/15% minimum. So a house priced at 350k now will be close to €400k this time next year. It's a no brainer. Buy now and save yourself €50,000 - that would take someone on average industrial wage 10 years hard saving so cannot understand why people are playing waiting game. They'll have to rent forever if they don't buy now.

Unless they have a huge deposit and I mean more than 20% I don't think single person or a couple on "average industrial" wage could afford a 4 bed house in D6 judging by the current asking prices for some houses. Most of those kind of houses are going from half a million upwards so your target buyer would need to be somebody who is earning a hell of a lot more than average industrial wage.

handlemaster

OP has all the answers. But my tupance worth is if their not biting your doing somthing wrong. Thats a good area. So price been asked is first off and how house is presented. If OP is not happy with agent change.

FTBer

RiseNshine wrote: »

Demographics. People need housing. Currently there is serious lack of supply. Prices are dictated by supply and demand. The banks aren't lending so this is having negative impact on market. People like me will NOT sell or pull out if the market if prices are artificially impacted or stunted by whomever

Hi Rise,
First time joiner/poster here - but I've been reading for years.
What has compelled me to reply:

- I am currently looking in your area Terenure/Harold's Cross/Kimmage - among other areas.

- Huge prices were achieved in Q1/Q2 this year - no doubt. And a lot of houses are still going for a lot of money.
But, there is a drop in some higher asking prices in the last 2 months. You can search daft or collapso for this for info. It's a fact.

- There are very few viewers going to see houses in the area at the moment - unless the houses are exceptional. I've been that viewer, and I've viewed a lot of them since July. The last two houses I went to see there was just me and one other viewer.

- EAs are now cold-calling up viewers who haven't yet bid, to ask if you want to bid. This has been happening to me in the last few weeks. This did not happen earlier in the year. This is fair enough, it's the EAs job to generate interest. But it does show that the interest is down.

- A lot of people in the same boat as myself (looking to buy) are holding fire, saving a little bit more, and hoping to look at the market again in 2015 (though I think it'll be later in 2015 before the CB regulations really bite.) I might be wrong in holding off, but I might be right too. The evidence, at least to me, suggests that there will at least be a leveling off in 2015 if not a dip over the 12 months.

- The banks are lending. In fact in the last 12 months they've been lending quite a bit - at fairly high multiples of salary. It's not 2006 again, but it has increased on previous years. As the banks lend at higher multiples, it drives up prices... which has been useful this year to improve their balance sheets. But this is why the CB rules are coming in, to prevent the banks from engaging in this behaviour again.

- If you really need to sell your house, then sell it.
Whatever you are being offered by a buyer is the market price: what somebody is willing to pay you. The asking price is just what you'd like to get for it.

- If you feel that the offer is too low, then don't sell. You might be right about the market going up in 2015. But you might be wrong too. Most of the "medja" that you are relying on to tell you how the market is going are vested interests. They generate a lot of revenue from property advertising/ supplements etc.

- If I wanted to buy a bicycle, and you were selling a bicycle - I'd certainly have a look at it. But if you want 250euro for that bicycle - and I can only pay, or am only willing to pay 200euros - then I will look for other bicycles. There's no point in screaming at me to "buy now, or you'll be left behind" at 250euros.

Finally, consider that your EA may be trying to get you to accept the current bid, as he/she sees no further improvement in the market for the near future. Your offer may be the best that you'll get. Also consider that while you might want to hold out for more money - he/she just wants a transaction completed. An extra 40 or 50k for you - might only mean an extra 400/500 quid for him/her. Not worth the hassle for 3 more months of viewings/appointments etc.

Alf Veedersane

From experience, the vendors of the house we bought were let down by the EA who was less than useless and put up the most pathetic pictures of the house. I can't imagine pictures that would have presented it in a worse light.

Don't think there were a huge amount of people that viewed it in the end. Granted, it was this time two years ago so things were different.

FTBer

RiseNshine wrote: »

Demographics. People need housing. Currently there is serious lack of supply. Prices are dictated by supply and demand. The banks aren't lending so this is having negative impact on market. People like me will NOT sell or pull out if the market if prices are artificially impacted or stunted by whomever

Also, the market is being "artificially impacted" at the moment:

- by supply being constricted by the banks not repossessing and selling the assets where mortgages are in arrears. This is only starting to happen in any number this year.

- by NAMA selling assets in blocks to investor companies - not on to the open market of willing buyers.

- by holders of landbanks being allowed to sit on their assets without developing them within a timeline.

- by the CGT exemption running out on 31Dec14, pushing cash buyers into the market this year in huge numbers.

It just seems that you are ok with these sort of recent market impact factors in your favour. But you are not as happy with factors that will drive property the other way.

MarkAnthony

Upon reflection I was needlessly rude to you OP, my apologies.

RiseNshine

Will prob do as you suggest. Watch this space. I think it must be said Property prices fell too far after 2007. Dublin is finding its true value and property while still 40% below peak is undervalued compared to other European capitals by 10%. As unemployment falls, exports increase. More FDI comes to Ireland property will rise by 5% minimum per year. Watch this space. People won't sell for peanuts