Heavy rain,Strong Winds In East & Flooding Overnight Thurs 13th /Friday 14th November

DOCARCH

Next batch on the (UKMO) radar now. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/map/#?map=Rainfall&zoom=5&lon=-4.00&lat=55.45&fcTime=1415855700

Coles

Shankill River at Cloughleagh.





River Liffey at Ballyward Bridge

maquiladora

So this is the situation this evening before the second dose of rain arrives tonight. Rush hour will be a nightmare in a lot of places tomorrow morning.

MEATH: Flooding in many parts of the county this evening.

Reports of further flooding now on the M1 southbound between J8 Duleek and the Toll Plaza.

The M2 Dublin/ Monaghan Rd northbound off ramp at J3 Ashbourne South is impassable due to flooding. Further along on the N2, the road is impassable between the Ashbourne R/A and Kilmoon Cross.

The Ballybin Rd between Ratoath and Ashbourne is closed due to flooding. The local Milltown road is closed due to flooding.

Flooding on the Ninemile Stone /Ratoath Rd (R125).

Flooding on the road Donore and Newgrange Visitor’s Centre.

Flooding in Julianstown Village on the Old Dublin/ Swords Rd (R132) and on both sides side of Clonee Village.

The local Slane/ Grangegeeth Rd is impassable due to flooding.

Reports of flooding on the Navan Rd (R147 /Old N3) at the water tower in Dunshaughlin.

MEATH: Flooding on the road between Donore and Newgrange Visitor’s Centre.

MEATH/ DUBLIN: There is spot flooding on the Garristown/ Ashbourne Rd.

WESTMEATH: Flooding has receded on the M6 Galway/ Dublin Rd eastbound at J11 Athlone Centre.

CARLOW: Flooding has receded on the N81 Tullow/ Baltinglass Rd at Rathvilly. Extreme caution is advised.

WEXFORD: The N11 Dublin/ Wexford Rd is closed in Enniscorthy on the Wexford side due to flooding.

WICKLOW: The Sally Gap/ Laragh Rd (R759) is impassable at various points due to severe flooding, particularly around Glenmacnas. Avoid the area.

WICKLOW: There is flooding on the Glendalough /Hollywood Rd (R756) between Laragh and Glendalough. There is flooding on the Rathdrum /Laragh Rd at the turn off for Greenan.

LOUTH: Extreme flooding on the N51 Slane/ Drogheda Rd and on the Collon/ Dunleer Rd (R691). Also on the N51 in Meath, there is flooding at the entrance to Slane Castle.

LOUTH: Flooding in Drogheda on the Rathmullan Rd, Donore Rd, on the Barna Rd in Dunleer, on the Collon /Tinure Rd at Rathdaniel, on the Galroosetown Road and on the R132 at Bawntaffe.

LOUTH: Reports of flooding on the M1 at J12 Dunleer.

LOUTH: Flooding has been reported on Wellington Quay in Drogheda.

LOUTH: The N2 Dublin/ Monaghan Rd is flooded at Hunterstown. Extreme care advised.

LOUTH: Ecco Road in Dundalk now closed due to flooding.

DOWN: Bridge St in Newry is impassable due to flooding. Avoid the area.

KILDARE: There is a stop/go system on the Straffan/ Kill Rd (R406) at The Blue Door due to flooding.

KILDARE: Main St in Leixlip is currently impassable due to extreme flooding.

KILDARE: Flooding on the Newcastle/ Celbridge Rd (R405).

WATERFORD: Flooding remains an issue on the Dunmore East/ Waterford Rd (R684) at Gaultier Cross.

SLIGO: There's also flooding on the Coolaney/ Collooney Rd, the Enniscrone/ Sligo Rd (R297) at Killeenduff and at Frankford on the Ballina/ Tobercurry Rd (R294).

Chris_5339762

22.5mm in 24hrs Dublin 16 according to my weather station. It tends to underestimate though, so read into that what you will.

Met Es short term is now pushing the second batch further west.

Coles

Anyone know how much rain can be expected in the Wicklow Mountains tonight?

maquiladora

Coles wrote: »

Anyone know how much rain can be expected in the Wicklow Mountains tonight?

If you believe this model, 80-90mm between around 10pm tonight and 10am tomorrow. 50~ might be more realistic, but still a lot of rain either way.

redsteveireland

maquiladora wrote: »

HIRLAM wants to send the heaviest rain further west than the other models, at least in the early part of the night anyway.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

Does this use Hirlam aswell?
http://mathsci.ucd.ie/met/mcc-forecast.html
Shows it a little bit further west than when I checked yesterday.

Coles

If we get anything like that it could be as bad as October 2011. Back then we had 40mm on the Sunday and 80mm on the Monday. It was the intensity of the rain on the Monday that did the damage (20mm+ per hour), and it was certainly the worst flooding in decades.

As we stand, the ground is absolutely saturated after 60-70mm on the mountains today and if we get the same again tonight there will be serious flooding come morning.

maquiladora

redsteveireland wrote: »

Does this use Hirlam aswell?
http://mathsci.ucd.ie/met/mcc-forecast.html
Shows it a little bit further west than when I checked yesterday.

That uses GFS data.

Coles

SO as it stands it looks like it's going to miss Wicklow/Dublin? I really hope so.

vicwatson

N11 at Enniscorthy is reopened, Flooding around the place though apparentely, drice carefully

DOCARCH

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

22.5mm in 24hrs Dublin 16 according to my weather station. It tends to underestimate though, so read into that what you will.

Not far off. 25.8mm today in my part of Dublin 16.

sjb25

vicwatson wrote: »

N11 at Enniscorthy is reopened, Flooding around the place though apparentely, drice carefully

Yep it's open again river fairly high tho

maquiladora

Coles wrote: »

SO as it stands it looks like it's going to miss Wicklow/Dublin? I really hope so.

There is disagreement on the models about where the heaviest rain will be. Best bet is to check the radar in few hours and you'll have a better idea.

Storm 10

Just looked at the Met Eireann forecast, on the radar it showed the next system moving in towards the South East but as it moved further to the Coast it looks to be taking a track more to the West. Anyone have any more accurate info on its track.

leahyl

Met Eireann say this tonight:

"Overnight another spell of very heavy rain will push into the south and spread countrywide by morning. The rain will be heaviest over Munster and Leinster with the ongoing risk of flooding. Winds will become strong and gusty especially over Leinster and Ulster. Lowest temperatures will be 4 to 7 degrees."

Looks like Munster will be getting a lot of this spell of rain also.

M.T. Cranium

Looking at latest radar and satellite animation, I don't think it will miss Wicklow and Dublin although the track of the heaviest rain (potential for 30-40 mm, 50-60 local on higher ground) is probably going to hit more like Waterford-Carlow-Kilkenny-Laois-Kildare-Offaly. East Cork fairly heavy, Cork city about on the edge of the 20 mm+ band, so figure on 40-50 mm on higher ground in Wicklow and 30-40 mm in some parts of Dublin but with the possibility of high variability in rainshadow effects.

The core of this meso-scale rainfall event is due south of Waterford now and upper level steering winds are backing from SSW to S. This is why I don't think it will swerve very much west of the GFS guidance which shows the heaviest rain hitting Wexford and Wicklow. Figure on GFS but shifted 50 miles west maybe.

Any active flooding in the inland southeast is almost certain to get worse during this second wave. I imagine all concerned are on high alert and peak runoff will come around 0300-0600h. This could merit a level 3 for inland southeast but let's keep it at this level 2 which was excellent by the way.

maquiladora

Some squally looking stuff approaching the southeast coast now on radar. Core of the rain still a few hours to the south.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

Coles

Here's the Meteociel rainfall forecast (WRF).

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?map=20

maquiladora

Coles wrote: »

Here's the Meteociel rainfall forecast (WRF).

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?map=20

This is higher resolution and has a better view of Ireland. It's still based off GFS data though.:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=25&map=330

HIRLAM is more likely to be accurate.

km79

I hope MT is right and it stays east!

Call me Al

km79 wrote: »

I hope MT is right and it stays east!

And I hope it heads Wesht!

fred funk }{

Absolutely bucketing down in Arklow.

mickger844posts

27.2mm since midnight here in Waterford City. There was extensive flooding around high tide this morning but abated after a few hours. The most interesting thing for me today was how fast winds dropped from gusting to 75km/h to relative calm. It was like a switch was turned off.

www.waterfordcityweather.com

DOCARCH

Looking at the radar looks like buckets heading for Dublin in the next hour or so.

pad199207

More fun and games due in the East now. Sferics dotted in it too!

Reckless Abandonment

DOCARCH wrote: »

Looking at the radar looks like buckets heading for Dublin in the next hour or so.

Hope mountain shadow takes the sting out of it . We've had enough rain to last the rest of November.

Bongalongherb

DOCARCH wrote: »

Looking at the radar looks like buckets heading for Dublin in the next hour or so.

That will be me up all night now with buckets. I have a large leak on the sitting-room ceiling, not a happy camper.

I heard that IW fix the first leak free, so might give them a call in the morning.

Iancar29

Gonna be a long night...

Coles

The Met Eireann short range forecast seems to have shunted the rainfall even further west with the worst of it heading in a line along Cork-Limerick-Galway-Ballina.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp